Member Info for Stupmy

Lack of significant newsflow, time until review findings, general malaise in a market with a dark cloud over it, but most of the chart setup and TA.

I'm not. I have no position.

I find it incredible that some of you dismiss the shorts as naive fools who will be 'toast' in the shortest of short periods. I still believe we'll see 52-53 p.

Seems like an overreaction. It was expected wasn't it. Is the problem that the FED is signalling Trumps presidency will be inflationary?

Dropping quite hard at the moment, not sure what the news is. Obviously FTSE futures falling in line with it. If we don't see some stabilisation or a retrace of the fall, it might look pretty on the FTSE tomorrow

Agreed Paul and that's the reason I'm uncomfortable. In reality though, we are not expecting news. I watch a variety of stocks and buy them when the meet certain criteria. If I was to miss HBR, I'd live with it, but I do view it as quite an opportunity

Paul, I can buy, but what I've found over time, is that buying low helps when it comes to selling high and making profits. I time everything I do. I view this as a very special situation and I expect to make a significant amount, but the markets are never easy and patience is very important. We may have bottomed, but there are other scenarios that might play out.

Hexam, I appreciated your help over on TUI a while back, so thanks for that and I read what you write, because I respect you. I think we'll see 14.1 or lower (14.1 is likely, lower I don't have a feel for). I watch CPI as I think at some point I'll buy and make a profit. I just wanted to say that there are some very good opportunities elsewhere and I'd be happy to talk offline if that interested you. I'll give you an example. I was stuck (am still stuck) in ENQ (sitting on heavy losses), but instead of doubling down on that I traded HBR and it worked very well, to the point that my losses (that I'm still sitting on) on ENQ are not important to me. I'd be very happy to talk to you offline.

I can't explain why the SP is falling, not qualified to, don't know why etc. But I can tell you that there are TA related ways to make some rational sense of it. In one scenario we could have bottomed today at 242/243. I'm on the sidelines, but struggling to stay on the sidelines. On the face of it, to the SP down at these levels discounts the whole value of the Wintershall deal whther that be tangible, intangible, the idea of getting out of the UK's NS bermuda triangle approach to sinking as many good companies as possible etc. There is another scenario that suggests 235 or lower or even 221-222 or lower are not unlikely. I'm struggling so much here as it looks like a rare case of inefficiencies in the market. Assuming that the SP fall is not related to inside info leaking (mostly it isn't although PI's do love a conspiracy theory), the only thing I can think (UK fiscal nonsense now neutralised) is that that is relates to the idea that we may be moving into a globally synchronised recession/depression during which POO might drop a fair bit from here. That might explain a lack of interest what appears to be a diamond that's recently come out of the rough. I'd rather enter at 220 or below, but I'd rather not be left on the platform watching the train pull out having failed to book a seat. I'm really conflicted, but really excited here. It seems to me that a good entry means I don't have to work next year?

How do WG's contracts work? I have no experience in this field. Are they based on an agreed amount calculated based on expected inflation rates etc, but fixed? If that's the case then the NI contributions rise, minimum wage increases (perhaps not that relevant to WG?) and higher input costs must really hit big contractors with fixed upfront agreements? Or is there something more flexible built in. Many of WG's contracts are large, long term and very forward looking. Pricing them (to win them) must be pretty difficult. I guess that's where a good track record of delivery is critical (intangibles).

Apologies, that was of course meant for the WG board. It remains relevant here though (although I guess contracts are different). So I'm still posing the same question:

How do CPI's contracts work? I have no experience in this field. Are they based on an agreed amount calculated based on expected inflation rates etc, but fixed? If that's the case then the NI contributions rise, minimum wage increases (perhaps not that relevant to CPI?) and higher input costs must really hit big contractors with fixed upfront agreements? Or is there something more flexible built in. Many contracts are quite long term and forward looking.

How do WG's contracts work? I have no experience in this field. Are they based on an agreed amount calculated based on expected inflation rates etc, but fixed? If that's the case then the NI contributions rise, minimum wage increases (perhaps not that relevant to WG?) and higher input costs must really hit big contractors with fixed upfront agreements? Or is there something more flexible built in.

I don't even like waffles

That's irritating. Was waiting for 220 or below to start buying again and while I was out making waffles with a bunch of christmassy kids, it's been and gone! You couldn't make it up, being a trader. I had not limit buys set either. Finger crossed we'll see it again, what do you think fellas?

If you look back to 2021 when PMO merged wtih Chrysaor it's SP was around 20-22p, subseqently there was a 20 to 1 consolidation to get our SP to around 400p (reaching 525 or so in Apr 2022). Bit of a slump after that to a consolidation period (may-dec 2023) between 215 - 270p more or less; that's 11-13p in pre-consolidation terms more or less despite getting on top of debt and really developing the business well), then a big boost in Dec 2023 with the announcement of the game changing acquisition of the Wintershall DEA assets; moves us away from UK fiscal problems via diversification, massively increases production and reserves, takes on fresh debt, but not dilution to SH's) to get our SP from around 215 to 328, later 332 and now 246 (12.5p in old money). There has simply been, no recognition of the great management of the HBR board in resolving the existential issues that PMO was facing, merging, growing, managing debt. If I wasn't watching it with my own eyes, I'd say it's ridiculous. I am watching wtih my own eyes and it looks ridiculous. I still think we'll see 235 or below, possibly 220 or below, but the opportunity that represents appear to be phenomenal to me. 8% divi now, that'll be bigger if we see 220 (smaller if they cut it!). I feel almost in shock.

Malaysia news. With our market cap so low and gas prices high, you'd imagine this could provide a little boost to the SP. I guess it'll take a little while to come onstream though

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ENQ/expansion-of-seligi-gas-agreement/16814568

Nice little tick up there. Anyone have an idea what caused it?

Yes, or scraping through with marginal success. As you imply, part of the education. Essential part as well. I can avoid many traps now. Always waiting for the next kick in the shins though

I had to spend some tough years earlier on.

Your first chart looks like a bearish flag, but the 2nd offers some hope of a reversal. Time will tell. I'd still like to see 300 or lower before buying back in.