Member Info for Stupmy

It's fun to speculate DrM, but I agree, very frequently we don't have the first idea what's causing a SP movement.

Take a look at this guy as an apetite wetter. 60 years experience in markets in various functions, a non-academic so easy to understand (you can do your own research if something he says interests you and get a more academic version elsewhere). This is 1 min or so, if he interests you (I think he should), then search out his other stuff. The algo side might be useful to you in a very practical way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_AUkAiLAwM

Just what I've said already BT. As KO points out, I've previously stated 10.15 as a risk (that's a downside gap on the 2h chart). 11.54 is a 2nd gap that has opened. Without significant news, history favour these to close. Timing the closure is very difficult though. A pull back to 10.15 would have me significantly increasing if my B&B period is over (that's previously stated KO). I feel some sort of excitement BT, but I think that after having recovered to within 10-15% of b/e (was sitting on a significant drawdown at the 10-11p level) that could explain the excitement I'm feeling right there! Again, entirely possible I'm kidding myself wrt the hope that good news is round the corner. But, rightly or wrongly, I'm feeling the same things you are so I'm hoping that we get some significant upside. Best not to get too carried away until price starts to break some of the upside levels, but a close above 17.5 would start to get really exciting. Even at the moment (go back to Swayzer's chart) it looks like we have a confirmed double bottom pattern between Aug 24 to end of Dec 24. If that plays out the way they frequently do, I have a logical target of around 15.1 (based on Bulkowski's work; I've discussed it directly with him and he freely admits the statistics on his patterns have changed over time; probably due to bots changing trading methods). Since there's no obvious target at 15.1 (at least I dont'see it), I have a more likely target as 15.8 or higher (probably 16.75 to 17.1). If there's some news behind this uptick, then challenge of 17.5 is likely).

From personal point of view, I believe the double bottom pattern is significant and that we will see further upside beyond it's logical target. One explanation for such a strong move is that the market (like you and I) is hoping for (expecting) some good news soon. Basically, the market looks to be building that news into the price now.

Fingers crossed. I have a strong conviction in this share and will add if we close the downside gaps.

That risk is still there KO, I'm still wary of that pull back, there is also a new risk around 11.5. These levels are quite likely. The problem is timing them. Since I'm long, I'd prefer to see the levels that I'm interested in to the upside first. I won't change the way I'm doing things, I've been clear on my views, they remain the same and are consistent. My returns make it very clear that I need to change nothing for the moment. Having said that, I adapt as the return from the way I do things changes. Thanks for the 'concern' though.

I feel the same, but Brent has been rising since Dec 6th more or less, that accelerated to the upside from Dec 20th. ENQ SP has been rising since Dec 17-18th (more or less). POO could be contributing here. I see what you're saying BT, I feel it too, but it could be confirmation bias. We'll have to wait and see. FWIW 14p or higher looks likely to me and I actually think we have a very good chance of challenging the previous high of 17.5 (Apr 17 last year.

Thanks PC, worth knowing. So as long as news is not too good, large shorts have another option to rationalise. If a share became exposed to t/o speculation or an out of hours approach, that could still hurt those larger shorts, but more day to day news leaves them with time to cover. Is that roughly how you see it?

AIM, here's a video putting CO2 impact on warming into effect. Very digestible, interestingly he touches on comments in the comment section of his video (analagous to comments on most bb's). Anyway, a little o/t, but relevant if you're interested in the impact of CO2 on global warming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=WVc-Y-mJ_uY&t=156s

QB, how did the timing of the shorts fit with CBG dropping the divi? That's a big expense for shorts. I haven't checked, but I'd guess that shorts have increased a lot after the divi was cut. CBG still remains a small company with a relatively high risk of being taken over which is also a big risk for those short. To me a 5.2% short on a small company that could become the target of t/o speculation, that's a quite a high risk. For that reason, you'd have to imagine they are pretty confident they will make a good profit in the near future (presumably related to the level of compensation decided; April?). Very interesting for sure.

Anytime T.

The China virus story is gaining traction in the popular press today. Might push airlines and the leisure sector again next week.

For declared shorts at 1.7% that seems to equate to 29.6m shares. Average daily volume over the last 20 trading days has been 7.9 million. It's quite a small short that would take (with current daily volume) 3.75 days to clear. Big shorts on small caps are vulnerable to t/o risks that can result in 50% rises in a day so hedgies shorting them will often keep the positions small unless they have very compelling reasons not to. Most of the movement in SP has not been particular fast and most of it has been downward for a good period now. I doubt that those shorting it are worried about these positions. I'd be very surprised if the total short including non-disclosed were over 12% (204 m shares/daily vol 7.9m/minimum likely time to close 26days at current volume levels). That would make no sense to me on a small cap like this.

Article in the dailymail today about the introduction of the SAF last week. Airlines to be forced to use 2% green fuels rising to 10 percent by 2040. The article suggests it could increse the cost of flying by 20% by 2040. Obviously not a positive catalyst for leisure spend on flying.

As you say, defaulting on that size of payment suggests Waldorf are really stuck in a corner as far as negotiating is concerned. Let's hope we can exploit it in a way that is very favourable for us.

Not sure if you're talking to me LCP? There could be a short squeeze, but equally those short could attempt an orderly exit over time. If there was good news it would trigger buying from those sat on the sidelines, but I assume also for the purposes of short-covering. I can only imagine that would lead to a good move to the upside over a shortish period of time.

Well, with 150m shares in issue and 5.2% short (7.8m shares) and the average daily volume being 1.5 m over the last 60 trading days it means that the shorts would struggle to close in an orderly fashion more quickly than 5.2 trading days. That's not too bad compared to e.g. WG where it might take a minimum of 8-13 days. Still, if the shorts did start to feel that the risk reward of staying in the trade was turning against them, we might very get a heads up as those shorts try to close out in an ordered way. Iike everyone, I have no idea what the outcome will be here, but I believe that a very large part of the problem is in the price. If it's in the press, it's in the price. The only thing that isn't in the press is the scale of CBG's liabilities. On that point I have some sympathy with Chids views. There is certainly a possibility that the SP could drop lower and only time will resolve that one. I currently have a long position from around 233 9 from memory).

You could also look at Amazon/Tesla/NVIDIA and others, their SP trajectories are riddled with gaps that have never closed (I haven't looked for a long time but assume it's still true). It's not safe to assume all gaps close as Garonne says. In my view we will see offmessages gap to 519/520 close. It takes a whole other level of faith to imagine the 420 gap would close. We'd certainly need to see some news to have it off to that level. No-one can see into the future, so it's all guessing.

With 800m shares in circulation, a short position of 5.7% equates to 45.6 m shares sold short. That's reduced now to 5.3% (42.4m shares) so declared short interest has fallen by 7% (3.2m shares). Average daiyl volume for the last 60 trading days has been 2.1 m shares. That means that at that level of trading volume it has taken at least 1-2 days to acquire 3.2m shares (the fall in short interest) and it would take at least 21 days to close those short positions. If good news landed, it's likely that buying pressure (even independendant of short positions would quickly drive the price up as sellers would be less in evidence. That's a pretty big risk to be taking for those short. I wonder if the reduction (0.39% in the case of D1 Capital Parnters) is the start of an organised wind down of their position. If that were true (with enough 'ifs' you could Paris in a bottle) it might indicate that they've taken the meat of this short trade and the risk reward profile is no longer so favourable. Might we worth watching closely from here.

If the number of shares available is 687million and 5.7% are short, that's about 39 million shares sold short. Daily volume is around 3 to 5.4 million (depending upon source of info. Let's take 5 as a rough guide. That means that days to close shorts could be estimated (loosely) at 8 days or if you use 3m as daily volume 13 days or so. That's a big risk to hold. For example if the review concluded that the issues regarding intangible write downs are limited to this area and are not of concern with respect to restatement of previous years accounts or future cash flows, that 8-13 day window might be quite hurtful. The reason I post this is that I think it's naive to consider this level of short exposure is 'unfounded' and the long positions are a slam dunk.

Here you go Thumper, this should get you started on gaps: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

There's some talk about a flu like virus filling hospitals in China. Claims of similar scenes to those when COVID was taking off. Maybe that's what's got the SP on the back foot? Easy to find info simply using google, but this link will get you started.

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/china-downplays-reports-of-new-virus-hpmv-outbreak-says-safe-to-travel-125010300894_1.html

Slightly o/t but this guy discusses the role investment in intangibles makes on current and future SP performance. Very interesting stuff and would seem optimistic for OCDO as they move forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kV0G8oy2jiU

There's a second one down to around 420 also. It's not easy to envisage what could have that 2nd one closing, but closure of the first one doesn't look unlikely to me.