Member Info for Stupmy

Nothing stated in position previous so I guess that's zero? That in itself could explain the rise in the SP. I guess it'll have the shorts looking for more information/discussing their positions.

I assumed that Fang. Not sure why we need conspiracy theories. To be honest it would be good if tuan used google translate as I can't understand his/her posts.

Nothing new, but every little helps (or you'd imagine it should do).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14278503/EasyJet-plans-turn-city-breaks-package-holidays.html

I'm trying to make sense of your figure Knot. I can't do it in the current format so I'm putting them into a spread sheet. Could you spell out the column headings for me as at the moment I haven't a clue what is what

Crs Date Hold m shares m Chg m Trad Imbalance ex Avg Aprx Mkt

This is a little out of date, but here's a source of information on EZJ dominance at Basel (a little out of date, but as I say we're under the flight path and I doubt very much that they've ceded much of their dominance.)

https://airserviceone.com/basel-gains-flydubai-as-latest-new-airline-in-2024-easyjet-top-carrier-palma-top-destination/

EZJ dominant at Basel/Mulhouse airport too at 55% of flights. We're under the flightpath and it's pretty clear that EZJ is a dominant force at this airport.

Well, SP currently looking to reject 206-207 which seems to be a reasonable support. I'm guessing that buyers were sat waiting at that level to enter. Just have to see whether the buying momentum continues now. I don't have L2, but looking at the trade data on this site I can't see the 2.5 million trades from 10;36 to 11:12. Were open market trades?

A piece from Decouple Media "Is Oil the Lifeblood of Civilisation". Rambling and high level, but for those interested the 2 mins from 1:09 to 1:11 cover Mark Nelson's view on UKs approach to O&G and energy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdWkW4Zwkps

If like that sort of thing, the SP is now close to the 61.8% fib retracement which i have around 482. Might get some support/a bounce around there. Personally I still worry about 420 area.

I listen to Baden FM (german radio station). My german is far from strong, but it seems TUI are advertising heavily for discounted holidays for the summer season. It seems to be 40% discount if you book early, type of stuff. Xhita/anyone, does that play into EZJ's hands? I.e. with a lower cost base, greater flexibility, is it a sign that other operators are having to reduce margins whereas EZJ can plough on as planned? Or is TUI's campaign the same as every year and nothing to think about really?

That's a decent drop Swanley, looks like they're exiting. Takes time to close shorts of that size so it's best done as a planned process. Fingers crossed we'll see more reductions. Might explain the rise after results (at least in part).

In theory days to cover here shouldn't be less than 2 (that's low), but Pokerchip on another forum suggested that the mean daily volume figure doesn't contain the uncrossing trade and that hedge funds can use this to help them close out their positions. I have to say I'm not expert. I do see it here that the low daily volumes/liquidity could be an issue for short positions. I'm guessing that that, along with the small market cap on this stock make it a long way from ideal and presumably put a cap on what hedge funds will risk on a short. Certainly a very interesting one. Reminds me of 'MOASS'. Have you looked into that? It's a crazy theory that describes a situation where shareholder might refuse to sell their shares, no matter how high the stock goes. They believe that it will force the SP up infinitely and destroy the financial system. Check out the video from James Jani (Cult of the dead stock). Very entertaining and despite MOASS being a very unlikely scenario and laughable, it at the very least is entertaining to see the sort of people that are trading with real money that matters to them.

I think the shorts here could close very quickly. Would be interesting if Gatemore did start to buy stock at a sensible rate. Shouldn't take much to get this to rise, but I still think we'll likely see 348 or even 320.

All very good LW. Good start to the year. Been a bit impulsive though, so I have too much risk for the moment. I'd love to rationalise that at a profit.

Doesn't seem particulary heavily shorted to me at 0.86%, although I recognise that it's pretty illiquid. 39% seem to be held by institutions. The data I'm looking at only has those above a 3% threshold, so there may be more. No shares in treasury (quick search so needs checking) so roughly 60% available for day to day trading assuming that the insti's over 3% are relatively strong holders. 60% of the 117m shares = 70m shares available for trading. 0.86% sold short = rougly 1m shares sold short. Mean daily vol over last 30 trading days (6wks) = 486,000. So only 2 days of mean daily volume are sold short. Seems like very little to me.

From my point of view, without a very compelling reason to short, this looks risky as the low liquidity could lead to a rapid rise in the price. Normally hedgies like to short megacaps whose SP's are more stable (less prone to t/o risk for example).

As you say, Gatemore don't seem to have a lot of shares to be throwing their weight around, but in theory, it could end up being a good thing for SH's if they shake up the management of the company (assuming they're right that management is poor; I don't have a view on that, but the SP suggests there may be problems to address.).

LW, thanks for the shout out, always appreciated. My own view has not changed. I think it's likely we'll see 348 or lower and probably 320 or lower. I'm watching closely but currently am sat on the sidelines.

It seems so, it'll not be a popular view, but for me it would be good to get 10.15 out of the way so I can add. At that level I might still be able to bring my average entry price down a bit, but playing the Martingale strategy with no house limit gets a bit pricey after a little while.

BT, where are you? So much for gut feeling on this one!! We had been hoping to see further rises. Now we're off to the downside again! So much for good vibrations.

OT, good work for making profit. It's not always easy to do.

I agree Chilting and am getting quite excited about OCDO at these prices. For me though, timing is very important and wider market weakness may very well provide better entries here or good opportunities elsewhere. As I say, I'm increasingly excited about OCDO and it's future.

Why would you exit OT? You stated that the trading for the next 6 weeks would be determined by todays update. That means the SP should rise and stay high.

I believe I made bad decisions on my entries, bought too much and have been lucky that this update has been viewed so positively. I've snatched success from the jaws of defeat in my opinion. In fact I've made a few mistakes recently and am overexposed to the markets. Given the right opportunity, I'll buy OCDO again, but for now I'm very pleased to have reduced my risk

"Remember you don't get rich quick, you get rich slowly. You get poor quick."

Indeed, it's taken me 15 years to become an overnight success! Steady compounding, learning and applying can make you totally independent and free! Although I still spend 10-12 hours a day working, because I wouldn't know what else to do with my time and doing nothing constructive is not really my bag.

Thanks for the responses, I'm heavily long here and down for the moment. For the short being net (i.e. influenced by derivatives) I was recently made aware of that and obviously it's very important and helps to protect us PI's from ourselves (i.e. not making wrong assumptions). I'm weak on the derivative side i.e. SWAPs and options etc, but gradually learning a little.

Sorry, I got the buying puts the wrong way round (see above on my knowledge base of this area), I understand the put would in fact add to the net short.