Member Info for Stupmy

Sheltie, how do you get to 327? Are you taking that from a low on Feb 26 2024?

I often do the same Oct. Many articles are based on syndicated news so you can access it from different sources

Finishing up the video Dart. Can't help noticing it's only been viewed 23 times. Madness, all this great stuff out there and no-one watching it. Richard Stuckey seems to be a bright guy that knows his stuff.

Watching the vid now Dartron. Interesting to see someone on the inside discussing it. I've always thought also that YOU is not an obvious short at these levels. Still think there's a good chance we'll see 320 area on this. But the risks of shorting a small, illiquid company at what seems to be a low valuation just has to hold a lot of risk

Wow, more of a reaction than I'd even hoped for. Long may it continue.

Looks good, that's a relief as the SP has languished for a while now. Fingers crossed the market will respond well to this update

I've read that this morning. I'm hoping the market responds well to it, looks good to me.

Silverspoons, how much would that affect us at the moment?

"...oh and another awful closing auction to finish with"

NAV, that is a poor close and it makes the 235 area a lot more likely, quite possibly lower.

It's really difficult to overcome our ideas of what 'should happen' ohg. It's also pretty well impossible to time the bottom or top of any swing with accuracy. When you try and you're patient, you risk missing a good entry altogether and there you are FOMO trading. You've got to make a decision on value at some point and start to build your positions around that level. I'm struggling a lot not to buy for the moment. I imagine that at some point I'll be unable to wait and will end up with a less than ideal entry, but that's the game.

Thanks fog, I figured the google chart would be rough and ready on that time frame. I'm now looking at a daily chart from ProRealtime, much more detail here. I can see you're low fog around 211 on Dec 4th 2023. On the daily chart then you could argue from Feb 26th 2024 (SP low around 243) we have what could be described as a series of higher lows to May 23rd 2024, but they're not that convincing to me, I'd see them more as part of the same rise with some volatility). It ended June 17th 2024. From then we've had real lower lows (at least 4 of them) to Dec 2024. The SP rose from there (239ish Dec 20th 2024) to around 297 on Jan 17th 2025, with no clear lower lows.

NSS, the price opened today at around 250 which closes a gap and could conceivably lead to a bounce. But HBR is a pyschological trap in a psychotic playground. Most people are very bullish on the basis of fundamentals (me included), but that does not mean the SP will rise. 248 looks very likely (nearly there now at 249.1), but I would not discount the possibility (it's quite likely in my view) of 243 or lower. 234-235 is not unlikely in my view and it's even possible that we'll see 220 or so.

I can see a rationale that might lead to a bounce from 243-244. But the pyschology of those interested in this stock will start to get a bit shaky soon, with questions about 'what could be happening' behind the scenes, 'the market knows there's a problem' etc. I'm not exposed. I'd like to buy a lot and have put money aside and will watch very carefully to see how this plays out.

I'm not really saying you have an agenda and am happy to take your posts and knowledge at face value.

I'm even happy to accept that you own 0.61% of the shares in CBG.

"The way you explain your trading you would appear to be completely ignoring ..." I didn't say a single word about how I'm dealing with my CBG positions, mostly I don't nowadays as it's irritating to others and largely unhelpful to anyone.

I'm not ignoring costs, I'm not risk averse and you have no idea of my position sizes. I haven't discussed them. What you're writing is speculative and utter nonsense. As for risk return please don't lose sleep over the way I deal with it. I'm doing just fine.

My comment was solely related to the use of emotive language i.e. calling people fools if they were to sell at a point you yourself don't think is appropriate. It's like the market in general, it's geared towards giving PI's a steer, using subtle terminology to encourage them off-side. It's a clever game and each one of us on a bb is part of it, whether we think of it that way or not. I try to be unbiased and every day in the markets I try to learn a little more. The more I learn, the more I learn that need to learn more.

NSS, I'll look in more detail tomorrow, but just skimming a crap chart from google finance now, the yearly chart doesn't obviously show that. It shows a low on Dec 19th around 242 (that's unlikely to be accurate for various reasons), a

run up to around 268 and a consolidation phase followed by a continuation to around 294 on Jan 17th. For me, that looks like the first high after the Dec 19th low. It's now falling and we need to see where it turns to have an idea as to whether the next low is higher than that of Dec 19th around 242. As I say, I'll switch on some more detailed software tomorrow and look more closely, but it seems premature to be talking of higher highs and higher lows for the moment. Maybe the timescale Pretax was looking at was shorter and therefore more detailed.

Chid, it's a good way of considering things, particularly with markets. I forget what they call it, but doing a bit of inverse-converse on general thinking on a matter, often shines a light on erroneous thinking. Only time will tell.

Rachel from accounts has painted herself into a corner. She's quoted as say that she revels in the thought of being viewed as an iron chancellor (or some such hubris), but that thought appears to have turned into a pack of dogs that is currently biting her (and Starmer) on the backside. It would be great to know, whether Rachel can indeed genuinely block or water down the action being brought against CBG. Like you, I hope that she can, but like you it's through self interest.

A close above 312 would be a thing of beauty to my eyes.

Fog, I have to say that I have never seen tam post anything other than glowingly positive comments on HBR. I'm personally positive on HBR's future, which perhaps has led me into the trap of believing he is genuine. He's certainly annoying and certainly his posts hold no value. That nonsense about the 'buy' trade almost had me filtering him. I'm sick of that kind of rubbish. At some point, you would imagine the inumerable discussions on bb's would lead to people understanding that 'buys' and 'sells' form part of the same transaction. SP movement tells you whether bears or bulls are in charge of the SP. It won't take a lot more for me to have him filtered. He's not rational, except in his overall view that HBR is undervalued and that could just be confirmation bias on my side!! Nothing is real, we're living in a matrix.

Theancientmarine, have a think about what you've posted

"Interesting £724K sp purchase here today at ~271p"

Now, ask yourself, how likely that the 724k transaction was causing buying pressure on the market today? You simply could not make up the nonsense that people write on bb's.

Is it possible that the 'buy/sell' 'data' that you are using is absolutely unreliable and you should be looking at the SP movement to give you an indication of whether buying or selling pressure is driving todays market activity?

Exactly Fang, no-one knows what happens next, knot seems to have some in depth experience of fiduciary process, derivatives and short selling. That could help with making decisions about the future (particularly buy and hold vs cut to reduce risk). But at the end of the day, you have to have conviction in what YOU yourself are doing and know why you're doing it, what is your plan. It's the only way make steady money. Otherwise, everytime the SP does something that it 'shouldn't do' you'll drop out (often at a loss). Conviction is a key thing, to have conviction, you have to have a plan, an understanding (from whatever angle that comes).

Good luck Fang, hope you bump it up in scale and move from 100's to 1000's and more.

Nothing sad about it Fang and I'm not being 'sizeist' (is there such a word), but there is a lot of money moving on these swings. To a certain extent, they are predictable. At a certain point they become less predictable. In the more predictable phase, traders do well. When the swings become less predictable the longer term holders do well. My point really was that knot was attempting to manipulate the emotions of those who might sell out within a timeframe that he doesn't think is ideal. We all have to do it according to our own personalities and our own learning curves. You suggest you're making hundreds at the moment, but that could be thousands in a years time, maybe more. The money moving into and out of the markets is astonishing, until you start taking it.

But there you go knot, you're clearly not happy for people to sell out or for the price to fall. If you were, you wouldn't describe the following as you do

"If fools want to sell out, go for it. I'm stunned at the short term views that people have, they seem to be completely blind or just opportunistic chancers with hot air. "

If you were sanguine about the situation, you really wouldn't care what others do. Someone else commented on something along the lines of 'you can make a couple of hundred repeatedly on each swing'. I guess there are some making that kind of money, but one thing that people often get wrong, is the belief that PI's are dealing with a few hundred here, a few hundred there'. Some PI's on this board, probably mostly folk who watch and laugh at the nonsense spoken, are making hundreds of thousands on these swings. Bearing in mind that absolutely no-one knows what will happen in the future, so we're all guessing based upon whatever work we're doing in the background, then you have to consider risk. To me, I get the traders (I am often a trader, but that very much depends on the circumstance of each opportunity), if you swing big, at a point that you think has a lot more upside than downside, you can reduce your risk over time, buy swing trading. Each time you take a profit, that profit can be used as a cushion against the next trade should it move against you.

Seems very legitimate to me and I laud those making money by taking the risks involved. I'm still long here for the moment.

Oxygen, GS are not publishing to make us wealthy. They're publishing to make GS wealthy. Trump/Saudi issue is a side show they're using to bring the price down to 245 if they can. Their analysts even know that they are paid to publish nonsense to 'facilitate the game'.

I have 254 as pretty well inevitable, 243-245 as likely and 235 as not unlikely. 221 is not out of the question.