Member Info for Stupmy

I'm with you here Mike, I think that there's a pretty good chance now that POO will fall back. I had 74.25 as a potential support, but that looks to be crumbling away as I type. Surprised, I'm wondering if that article that you posted is a sign of the media trying to influence PI's to keep buying/not worry/not drop their positions etc (that allows larger players more time to reduce. Personally I've halved my HBR position with the view that 231-232 or lower is not likely. I still hold 250k shares consistent with my view that HBR SP is currently low and likely near the bottom. But, no-one can see into the future and I don't want to be burnt so I've taken small profits and moved more to cash. I also feel that other SP's are likely to offer good entries in the near future so I'd like the flexibility to expose myself to those.

NAV Mike: today "With Brent, Gas and the wider market all turning markedly lower, looks like good old HBR will follow them. "

Surprised today "Standard Chartered: Oil markets will not return to a supply surplus situation in 2025... even if OPEC+ increases output according to the current schedule. "

Boyo, I'm profiting from the volatility, but my position sizes have been coming right down of late. I'm currently waiting for another opportunity. You have 282 as a possibility, I'm wondering if that will actually be 272 or a little lower; I have 295-298 as quite likely). With that thought in the back of my mind, I'm restricting the size of my entries until we see it, or get some sort of confident move that makes it seem unlikely.

I got that Stas, but 'Smart money' is just a term referring to large holders that mostly have access to a lot info we don't or at least get it before we get it. It gives them an edge. I was expressing a view that 'large holders' might be rotating out of certain stocks and into others (no change in overall index levels) or even out of stocks altogether (fall in index levels such as today).

If the price falls from 365 to 320 (it may not as no-one can see into the future; that's what makes trading/investing difficult), then any money that came out at or above 365, will look smart.

Personally, I suspect that in the nearish future, we will see better entry prices on a variety of stocks. For that reason I've been rotating out of some stocks to build a bit more cash. If I'm wrong, then my thinking is, that at least I'll avoid a loss.

Boyo, the FTSE is actually falling today and the US500 doesn't look strong for the moment. I think that larger players (I better not use 'smart money' or I'll be laughed at again) are rotating out of stocks. I can't help wondering whether, without significant news, this and many other stocks are due a bit of a fall back that could be independent of their intrinsic values/problems/ perceptions etc. I think for the moment, each rise is an opportunity to close out.

Just a view, could be totally misreading it of course. But I do think that there is a non-company specific component to the price action in a few shares that I watch at the moment

Stas, you spend a fair bit of time apparently talking to yourself, but have a look at these 2 posts from today and yesterday. They're not very consistent, how did you arrive at 10 pounds and above yesterday, but today you're thinking a t/o at 5 pounds? Clearly you think any money waiting for 320 is not 'smart money', only time will tell us that. But what do you think the SP will do?

Stas on 12th of Feb: "Lol, the terminology is funny, smart money, not so smart that they are selling at £3.65 and not at £10 and above. We'll see, I don't see £3.20. " (I suspect I'll get to post this again if the price drops to 320!).

Stas today : "Either way, I'm more than half expecting an offer to come here nearly all of the brokers have targets around £6 - £7 and Gatemore who it seems has influence (how I don't know, they only hold about 1.5% I think, but they did cause change) they think this is worth north of £7 - I'm expecting to see an offer in the £5 range."

Mike, I'm thinking a revisit to 231/232 or lower, but at these kind of levels, I'm also thinking we're near the bottom. Still you have to trade what you see, not what you hope for.

I don't think so Stas, I think this is smart money ratating out of companies such as YOU and OCDO (there are some notable others). Question for me is, where is that money rotating to? Is it financials, O&G, precious metals?

I still see 320ish or lower here and am still waiting.

Sheltie, do you think what you're viewing as MM's playing with OCDO SP is actually, larger players rotating out of companies such as OCDO into financials, Energy, VC etc? Certainlys to me that there is increased volatility but that the FTSE isn't falling overall?

Sounds like good thinking, is that a form of accepted behaviour from banks or is it something you've worked out for yourself? I find it an interesting line of thought.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ENQ/february-operations-update/16895329

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CBG/update-in-relation-to-motor-commissions/16895341

Indeed BigW, looks to 'held' for now.

Interesting Alkesie, I'd not seen that now it's not LSE listed.

I think that's one of the most bothersome things about Trump, very few if any leaders avoid find a way to line their own pockets while 'representing the electorate' that put them into power, but Trump doesn't even seem to be embarassed about the conflicts of interest involved in his administration of the US. He's ramming down peoples throats. I suspect that there will be plenty of push back in the near future.

Funny little bit of price action. Can't see any news, but there was a sudden drop. Volume isn't high, but it looked like someone started to sell. Be a lot better for the bull case if the price closes today above 68

This mornings Hearhrow RNS showed 11th successive month of record numbers travelling and that transatlantic flight demand was increasing a lot. Not sure that there's a lack of demand for folk to fly to the US, although, like you Xhita I can see reasons why you could imagine it being less attractive. EZJ shouldn't be affected by changes to transatlantic travel demand though

500 doesn't look to be holding. I have 487 as a possible rising tl support. I still have 420-423 as a risk, however silly that might sound at the moment.

I have around 500 as on a rising trendline support. I bought a few very speculatively around here. Quite a rapid drop, but in line with Whizz and IAG

Stevo, does that mean that it could explain the lower than expected FCF? Because some of the WD FCF has been used to pay towards the acquisition?

It does have an AI feel about it, that update.