Member Info for Stupmy

I stick with my view that we'll see lower prices ahead. Obviously if OT is right, despite him thinking 'anything can happen in 4-5 days, the next 6 weeks should be up based on this trading update. Not sure how that's not 'inconsistent', but his view is that the next 6 weeks trading will be dominated by todays update. I do hate the shi te people talk on bb's.

I feel lucky to have taken a good profit and been able to exit.

OT, it's a complete contradiction, what you're actually saying is that you can take a guess and that's valid, others shouldn't as it's invalid.

Overtrader, you posted the following on the 9th at 14:46.

"Think you're probably right just purely to a positioning stand point now. This is deeply oversold and it's happened too quickly to continue given there's not been a catalyst, there's a sequence of upside price levels now which if start to be reclaimed will trigger a strong squeeze. £3.20 is the obvious target. If that happens expect a small retrace to £3.05 before a sustained rise (due to major trendline break)."

and this today at 17:40

"Making any call about the share price the day before a trading update is completely futile. Tomorrow will set the framework for the next six weeks or so of trading, in either direction."

What's the distinction between 1 day before a trading update and 4-5d before a trading update and why would a call of results 'setting the framework for the next 6 wks or so of trading...' hold value when you state that "Making any call about the share price the day before a trading update is completely futile. " a day before the trading update. You seem confused.

I'll stick with my view that JPM will get their wish and the SP will fall further (I suspect it is a wish and that their view is not benign). I think it's likely we'll learn very little new and if we don't, or if there is anything that could be viewed as negative, the SP will be punished for it.

For the record, I hope it isn't as I'm long.

"If the shorts continued to build up a position to hold the price below say 230, in 2 years time CBG would pay a dividend of over 40%. How does that figure ? "

Is that not a big assumption based on re-instatement of a dividend equivalent to the one that was dropped due to the motor insurance misselling scandal? I'd have imagined that if a dividend was re-instated it would be much lower than 40%

"With the price fall short dated call options could have been bought in, which would have helped cap the price rise and provided an exit strategy. This could have been a factor in MW due to the dates and levels they closed out at. "

Do you mean that MW may have bought puts rather than covered some of their short position, with the Shorttracker data showing 'net short' (which as I understand it includes all methods of trading CBG, not just shares)?

Knot, since the motor finance part of their business is very much in focus at the moment, there's a tendency for other parts of their business to be flying under the radar a bit at the moment. From what I can see, about 15% of their lending relates to commercial real estate. How do you view the risks associated with that side of the business?

Well, that's a low close for today. To me, that looks to augur more falls in the near term as we've been banging on the 271.5 area since the 9th of this month. Looks likely to fall below it now in line with JPM's view of further falls. From memory they had 230ish as the area to watch and that's obvious if you look at a weekly chart. Looks like very strong support area from 215 - 240 ish.

Let's hope it's due to expectations of 'upscaling' PC, that would be interesting for the SP.

Thanks FT for the link and then the transcript.

Jaco, it says 'dynamic link not found', any other way of sharing that?

The Sun has this article running daily (sponsored ad looking for claimants). It changes nothing as far as our liabilities are concerned, but gives a negative impression of the situation in general and this type of press is not helpful for SP's.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/29556884/car-finance-could-you-be-due-thousands-in-compensation/

OK, that does seem unsporting bearing in mind the declared short position is 0.86%, which doesn't seem high. Thanks for that response. I normally come across the situation for long positions, which they state as 'closing only' when they restrict them. That's clearly not to do with declared shorts. It normally occurs on illiquid stock. I remember that for a while I had that with Foxtons, and on rare occassions with 'dodgy' AIM stocks with great 'back-stories', I'm sure you know what I'm talking about there.

Just had a look at that Pablo. I see that 50% level. What I would say is that 50% (which might act as a support) does not technically co-incide with a fibonacci number. I think that might be why some folk consider the 61.8% fib more important; in this case 480ish). I checked back to the last rise (Oct 24th 2023 to Apr 10th 2024) to see whether price respects these fib levels and it was a bit mixed as a result. The price didn't respect the 50% retrace, but did bounce off the 61.8% level to give a 54p bounce, before giving it up and dropping below the 61.8% fib to a support line). You might be right that 500 will provide a bounce, but perhaps don't exclude the 480 area (61.8% retrace).

Whatever, you got me thinking, which is a good thing.

LW, once again I was being lazy (lot happening at the moment as you are probably seeing yourself). I've just researhed it. Here's the response I got, IG Markets blocks some short positions for several reasons:

Insufficient inventory: When IG is unable to secure enough shares to allow new short positions, the stock becomes "unborrowable"2

5

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Risk management: If IG's net long or short exposure to a specific stock exceeds their internal risk limits, they may restrict leveraged trading2

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Market capitalization: Stocks with low market capitalization may have insufficient liquidity for IG to support leveraged trading2

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High broker margin requirements: If a stock becomes too capital-intensive for IG to support leveraged trading, they may block short positions2

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Regulatory compliance: In some cases, restrictions may be implemented due to legislation changes or as a precautionary measure for risk factor changes2

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Market volatility: During periods of extreme market volatility, even highly liquid shares can become unborrowable, preventing new short positions5

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These restrictions are implemented to manage risk and maintain market stability, protecting both IG Markets and its clients from potential losses in challenging market conditions.

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Sorry, I had meant to say 'actually favour EZJ as our revenues/profits are in GBP', I've delved deeper and see that about 40% of our revenues are euros, but that 40% of our costs are also Euros'. From what I can gather the pound falling against the euro would slightly favour our revenues, but since the drop is small anyway, it's largely neutral. Very happy to be corrected of course. Still not clear on dollar denominated costs impacting our SP over the period mid Dec 2024 to now.

PC does EZJ have a lot of dollar denominated costs?

For GBP falling against the euro, it's not a big drop (both are falling against the dollar as that rises). I imagined the pound weakening vs the euro would actually favour EZJ as our revenues/profits are in euros.

I get the Trump argument, but we'd have to assume that it's exported to the UK and Europe (entirely possible and I see the perception of the global nature of the consequences of Trumps policy is important).

EZJ seems to be disproportionately affected vis a vis the FTSE (although another poster indicated other airlines excl IAG are in the same boat). Can't help noticing that OCADO/EZJ charts are similar from Jan. OCDO has obvious US interests, but I'm not clear on EZJ (although you mentioned dollar denominated costs).

For the record I did expect this drop (but simply from my take on the TA/charts etc. I have also stated there is a risk of a fall to 420 or below (from memory), although I can't imagine what we'd need to get the price off that far. . I'm still not 'feeling it' here with respect to understanding this fall. There's clearly been a strong belief that Europeans/Brits will hang onto their annual vacations longer than other leisure spending. Is it just that, the market is rejecting that view and building in a sizeable impact of reduced discretionary spending here?

Makes my head spin trying to figure out the reasons for SP movements.

With IG Markets. They don't allow short to open. Anyone know why that happens? I've had it before where they only allow closing trades on longs. I don't know what it means, but suspect that it means that IG M don't expect to make money against shorts?

I'm trying to figure out what is driving the decline in SP. Pound is falling against the euro (slightly), but that would favour revenue and profit for EZJ and potentially encourage travel by Europeans. I don't think the drop is EZJ specific, as IAG has dropped 1.7% today and EZJ 1.8%. Could todays EZJ SP decline be related to the increase in POO? It's really moving fast to the upside.

I just checked. Bit lazy of me not to do that in the first place. There's a 500,000 transaction at 15:07. It's marked as a sell, but to me the distinction is impossible to make on the data provided. If... it was someone selling (that's not really the same thing as saying it was a sell), then it's positive as the SP didn't move, i.e. there was a buyer waiting for it. However, one way markets are legally manipulated is by one party having simultaneous buys and sells via 2 brokers. They cancel each other out, distort the volume profile that some TA enthusiasts are keen on, don't change the price and don't cost the party doing it anything significant. Could be that, or could just be that there's good liquidity and the offer or bid was immediately soaked up.

Extra-ordinary volume in the last 15mins, although no big change in SP. Be interesting to see if that has any significance.