Member Info for Stupmy

For me FRES has become interesting again today. Current price is 513.6. That seems to have the SP sitting on short term tl support (Aug 18/Oct 6/close to a touch on Oct 23 and now a 3 real touch today. Speculatively it's maybe worth a buy with considered stops. But certainly worth watching SP action now to see if we're likely to get another bounce. I have no current exposure but am considering re-entering.

10% seems high. Not that convinced about 90p.

I was interested in Steppe Cement a while back and did well on it, but inflation hit it's profits. From memory it's got limited capacity to increase output and most of it's output is taken by domestic demand (Kazakstan) so it's got limited upside in response to the Ukraine war. Maybe the story has developed since then, but there are so many 'opportunities' at the moment that the less liquid stocks seem less attractive.

I won't open any leverage trades on TUI until the SP drops to or beyond 414 which I think it will do. I'm short EZJ and that's looking ok for me at the moment and pulled out prematurely from my CCL short (yesterday I think). There are long opportunites elsewhere so it's best to be selective.

No problem GA, what a shame that it looks like ENQ is favouring the 13.7 level today. Bu gg er.

As very likely. I imagine you've profited and not just sat on your holding Scott, you pooh poohed the idea the SP would come down. You just don't get markets do you!

https://screenrec.com/share/NBUIfvVZzW

Sorry, I got confused about which board I was posting on so the 'there' and 'here' comments might be confusing. All of that Chart view was about ENQ. I'm very active on HBR.

It's a good question GA. You probably know I'm heavily exposed there and it's largely been opportunity cost for me for over a year (maybe best part of 2 years). I recently dropped 30 or 40% of my leveraged positions and took my first profit there in ages. That was somewhere close to 17p from memory. I was hoping to buy back around 14-15 and that's now possible. Interestingly it was rising as HBR was falling, I mentioned that divergence on the ENQ board I think. Now ENQ has fallen back along with HBR, but there are buyers for HBR today but not ENQ. Not sure what the difference is. Is it divis? HBR's lack of debt? The better beta on the SP? Is it just traders (in which case it's got a good chance of 'rinse and repeat'. At some point that cycle will break down and I guess the SP will rise. Will that take a change to the EPL? I don't know. For the chart I think it's best to start with the longer term chart. The weekly chart suggests a rising tl support from Mar 2020/Nov 2020/Oct 2023 and the SP is threatening another touch of that line around 13.7 (that cannot be viewed as a precise figure for various reasons). There has been a trend towards weekly volume falling from the start of Sept to the current time. I use something called TAC-DMI and on the weekly chart it's not showing any strong directional signal to my eyes. Waiting for something? On the daily chart it seems about the same, it's not showing any strong indication of direction. It's possible the 13.35 on Oct 5th is the bottom, but I have no confidence that it is unless the SP closes above 17.2 (that's a big move in relative terms). I don't see a technical reason to be convinced it will fall a lot from here, but that doesn't mean that it can't. I'd guess (with rose coloured specs as I'm trapped here) that we are in the process of forming a broad based bottoming pattern that will lead to substantial rise, but not this week! If you assume that it is bottoming, then speculatively buying at this level with a view to dropping it below 13 would seem likely to give a good return, but HBR is easier to judge, moves better and is yielding much easier profits at the moment.

240-244 looks very likely here now in my view. Amazing how fast it's turned around.

I can't help wondering if it's a little 'off-radar' at the moment. We're getting a better reaction now and my guess is that institutions will start buying also. SP is nice and low in what seems to be a good environment for Smiths at the moment.

I don't know Bp, I'm being a bit of an ar se here. I can see that. It just struck me that 'all in' was nothing of the sort, I don't know if I'm a bit autistic but 'discrepancies' kind of needle away at me. No harm meant Bp so sozza if I've been too much of an a r se

Record results, again it supports the idea that travel revenues and profits remain robust for the time being.

Prelims from WH Smith look very encouraging and as stated yesterday they seem to be in line with the view that disretionary spending and that part of it allocated to travel, remains robust for the time being. In theory, you'd imagine that it would lead to a positive read across for TUI.

Somewhat off-topic but related to wider difficulties in the econmy, Home REIT (was the one you said had some complicated practices SK?) disposed of 153 properties (73 of which had tenants in liquidation) with the proceeds being 35% of the most recent valuations. That is in-line with some of the US write-downs being taken on Commercial property and those losses at some point will presumably feed back to the banks. Just worth keeping an eye on these things I think as they help understand what kind of shape the wider economy is in.

I suspect that we're back off to 202 or below.

You were 'all in' at 240, have you now sold your jacket and your push bike Bp.

As you know, I think we're headed for a sh i t show and that we're about to enter a global recession. Timing is hard, but I think the unemployment figures will start to rise very soon. As an example FedEx are offering their pilots the 'unique opportunity' of seeking jobs with commercial airlines while demand for freight is depressed). I think the Fed/BofE etc will cut rates and that it's too late for that stimulate the economy. Historically cutting rates comes just before job losses. German economy is getting worse not better (ignoring tiny positive signs that are meaningless in my view). Now South Korea has banned short selling on Korean stocks. That's not the sign of a healthy economy. In the UK building materials are getting cheaper (that's not inflationary!) as demand declines. Same in the Germany, now construction companies are saying demand is drying up. It's all happening in front of our eyes. It's happening so slowly that our hard wiring is allowing us to believe it's actually not happening at all (but it is).

But it reminds me of a story I was told about the old fashioned way that country folk would kill rabbits with a cudgel (I don't know whether this holds truth). During the harvest, as the corn was cut those rabbits inside the corn were forced out into the open. The labourers dug their walking sticks into the ground and placed a cap on the stick (that cap is the little bits of positive news the media is selling as proof that everything is alright). The rabbits focussed on the cap on the stick while other labourers crept up behind them and struck them a fatal blow with a priest/cudgel. I am very wary of those snippets of 'good news' (often stemming from previously revised estimates or revised downwards after the fact) from sources with a vested interest in avoid panic.

Most people seem unconcerned about all of this, but I'm really scared about what's coming. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

Lot's of good points, thanks for those who responded. I liked SK's, these things are often smoke and mirrors to win votes but not actually change anything. I would not be at all surprised if SK's 'different route' through the IT structure and removal of cost from the up front price was a real possibility to give the same result! It would however still start with a higher headline cost for the ticket. Interesting point and one I'd not have got to on my own.

Update. Ig seem to have resolved the issue. Fingers crossed it stays resolved.

It was a risky one, it's got the potential for some good upside and it can happen quickly. It wasn't a conviction trade for me and my losses aren't big. Just that when I can't react fast (problem at Ig still not resolved), I'd rather not get stuck holding a poor trade as it moves against me.

Yes, it's interesting, but the Yanks want it low.

Here's what I wrote early October. Since then I've stayed clear. My first target area for the SP was around 30.7, but there's another possibility just above 25. POO has indeed come off, quite a lot and I guess that's brought the SP down here. For me, although the SP can always go lower, it's now back on my radar and I'd potentially go long if I got a buy signal on it.

https://screenrec.com/share/tomcdfvG3V