Member Info for Stupmy

Jan, although your argument makes sense on the face of it, if you look at the HBR price it would suggest that it doesn't hold that much water. EPL and UK fiscal policy probably not to blame either as companies unaffected by UK tax regime are also coming off.

I'm not right either yet. But I could take an advantage on price if I were to start buying back (which I haven't done yet).

I bought a few of these this morning simply based on the chart and the hope that we've got a bounce coming. I managed to get an entry around 611. Looking good for the moment

I just wrote out a detailed summary of where I think we are on the chart and have lost it. So in brief, the SP has marked a new low, I'm having to 'search for' a positive view on the future here, which means I'm now emotionally engaged, and that is a bad thing as objectivity is important. We need the SP to stay above 13, if not 12 becomes quite likely and it would suggest that things are going to take a while to settle. At least the yanks can't sell too much from their SPR to keep the price of oil down. I think we really need to hope that OPEC and general demand keep the POO reasonable or we could be headed for a stessful period! Anyway good luck all. I've not sold a share. Luckily I'm trading HBR successfully which is clawing back the paper loss I'm sitting on wtih ENQ

That was meant to read 'or increase the price'

I guess i just can't see clearly what it's most likely to do Onedb1. The jump in POO is presumably speculative based on the OPEC discussions. Reducing output may or may not reduce the real supply or the price. I get the theory, but until I see the reality, it does look speculative.

Well, they report next week so that could provide a catalyst. Anything bad in that RNS and we'll drop to 414 or below. I'm expecting to see 468 or lower in the nearish future. I'm holding about 40% of what I was previously, having sold the rest at or above my b/e of around 495. I'd actually like it to fall back as I'd like to buy more and bring down my b/e price.

I have it as equivocal and dropped the rest of my leveraged positions today. I think there's a reasonable risk we revist 219-220 or lower. Having said that I've kept all of my shares for the moment as I can also see a good chance of a run-up to 243 or above. If it falls back I'll buy back on leverage and add shares.

Rings a bell Trisor. I now think (after the price action since that level was hit) that we need to see 18.5 or lower (again) for the SP to coninue it's upward path. I'll wait for that level (spread is poor on this). I suspect we're close to restarting the upward path but patience really is a virtue in this arena.

Charlie died today, 99 years old. Funny that you post his view.

I said a little while back that I thought we'd fall back to I think it was 19.5 or below (from memory). It's done that. I have bought back some of what I sold, but not all (average entry is a bit below 19). Some buying today, but I'd have thought the SP needs to touch 18.5 or below to really represent value at the current time (just TA, not company fundamental position). I'll probably wait to see 18.5 before buying more, but am feeling FOMO as my overall view is that the SP has more upside to come in the near term.

Another thought, is HFD's interest in Wiggle a factor in todays drop?

Was surprised by the drop here, I skimmed the RNS and thought it looked ok. Obviously something in it bothers the market. I trade HFDs from time to time so have become interested again after this drop. It's not that liquid and the spread is not great so it's less than ideal for trading.

I think that 177 is very likely (current SP 183.3) here. It's not at all unlikely that the SP will fall below that (this is simply based on TA not this mornings figures). The big question is how low it will actually go. Over time I'd say there's a good chance of seeing the 160 area (rising tl support), but it's not out of the question that we will see 137.5 or lower. One to watch carefully and one to be careful about risking too much on. I'll be watching it from here, but am not convinced there is a rush to buy yet.

I'll add more between 218-219. Dropped 35% of my leveraged trades between 225-226

It's funny, I was thinking that 'in-line' would lead to no particularly fast change in the SP, but anything looking 'iffy' might give disproportionate downside. Looks good to me from that point of view. My guess is that we'll go back to bobbing up and down with the spot POO. I've been accumulating and will continue to do so. The gas hedges were highlighted and they come to an end in December. Divi is good and well covered from fcf. Risk to the business looks low, market cap too low. All looks good for the medium to long term. EIA report this afternoon. OPEC on friday.

Thanks Trisor, always nice when you get something right. It's actually not quite done what I need it to, in order to buy back, but it's very close now. I could imagine 19p being a speculative buy (speculating on buyers coming in on the short term rising tl support from Oct 27).

TUI SP looking equivocal, we'd need a close above 503 and then a successful challenge of the 520 area to suggest we're imminently due further upside. I see a pretty good chance of us seeing 470 or lower, maybe 440 or even 414 areas. Really not clear to me and as such, without any real conviction I took the opportunity to drop another 10,000 shares at round about b/e (495ish) .

For the wider economy, the credit squeeze continues in the US, which you'd imagine would dampen spending appetite, which somewhere down the line should hit demand for goods from China. I guess what we need to see is the retail spend over the xmas period. US polls are suggesting that the black friday-like sales will generate record revenues (10% up on last year), but that US citizens are likely to spend less outside those sales. US small/midsize banks continue to take money from the Fed's emergency fund (suggests that they remain in signficcant distress) and continue to tighten credit. If they don't lend, then the consumer will struggle to spend and businesses will struggle to generate business. At some point unemployment would rise under such a scenaria. Interestingly China has paused it's interest rate reductions (aimed at generating domestic demand) and is actually now forcing banks to lend (credit loosening; money creation). That might increase domestic demand, but China will still be hit by slowing internations (US) demand, so I'm not convinced it will prevent an international recession.

All to watch SK I think, for me the risks look to be still there. Need to take stock of what happens over this festive/holiday period. Consumer spending will likely tell us a lot about how close we are to a recession and possibly how bad it's going to be.

No-one can see into the future, but I'm still worried about it.

Not sure what's happening, but it's posutive for the SP, just jumped up to 45p. Fingers crossed there's more to come.

According the chart I'm looking at the price has now hit the 70.3 level I was interested in. For me now it's become much more interesting and I'll be buying if I think that the price action suggests that the the rising tl support (at 70.3ish) will hold. GLA.

No threshold here Hexam, 30% across the board, no allowance for the first 18,000 or whatever you used to get in the UK. I think that's dropped considerably now though.