Member Info for Stupmy

Looks as though we'll go into the last 30mins of this week with lagging indicators on the 2h chart looking a bit grim. I have to go out and on the off chance that it'll follow through, I've set a series of limit buys. The first has triggered at 223. Fingers crossed they'll all trigger!!

GLA however you play it.

Also very difficult to resist buying at times. Seem to have been in a period of accumulation (a bottom?) since November. I find it hard to believe that we're struggling so much to rise from this low base, but the falling POO seems to have been enough to bring out some sellers again.

If we close above 65, might be a good sign technically, maybe this is the bottom here? Maybe I'm being wishful!

Where the SP is going. A little while ago I figure 225 or so was coming. I sold my leveraged positions in the hope of buying the back around 223-225. Subsequently the price has held quite well and with POO on the front foot it looked like 242-243 or higher might be on the cards (I have held my shares, although yesterday I placed a limit sell at 235 which did not trigger). Today, it looks to me that despite the POO remaining perky, our SP is indeed coming back off to 225 or below. Makes your head spin a bit. But in my view the case the company being undervalued is so strong, that I'll happilly buy back hopefully in the near future. Just a bit sad that I didn't manage to drop 25% of my shares yesterday at 235. I believe the SP did touch that.

That sounds like good news to me.

For interest rates, I suspect they will come down. Fed is mulling 3 x 0.25% interest rate drops in 2024 (that comes 2 weeks after them saying they are not considering the question of dropping interest rates). I suspect UK will do the same.

Maloo are you pretending to be Warren Buffet?

If you make the assumption that we've bottomed for the moment and are about to move back to the upside, then I would say that looking for an entry after 65.2 makes sense, if it closes below 65 then that would throw doubt on the assumption the drop has stopped. I'll be adding after 65.2 as long as we don't put in a new low

The apparent rejection of 72 dollars a barrel for Brent comes in region of technical support on the weekly chart. If that were to break down rather than continue up (low demand due to an international recession; extended supply by the US/Russia?) then the pattern above that level of support would start to look like a H&S top with the potential for quite a lot of downside.

Interestingly the 'H&S' if that proves to be what it is (Aug 2021 to now) mirrors what was an iH&S pattern from Sept 2019 to Aug 2021. They literally look like mirror images. I'm kind of hoping that the fact they are mirror images means that the current pattern is finished and we can stablilise or move up. But that hope is mainly because of my exposure to oil so it's hardly a detached view.

Why though bonker? I can see oil has ticked up, is the rise based on the belief we've seen the low on POO? I was thinking we might see HBR pull back to 223/224 before a more sustained rise.

This website is saying no open short positions at the moment. I did look at that. Not sure how long out of date their data is (48h is common),

Ippolit, hopefully it's a ridiculous thought, but it seems to be struggling and that article from Motley fool suggests that it'll be pretty difficult for 2024/2025 alos. They do suggest the dividend is expected to be kept for that period, but I'm personally not sure how they can justify it.

Here's an article from Motley fool from September, I'm sure it was posted here at the time, but why not have a refresher.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/09/25/whats-wrong-with-the-vodafone-share-price/

If I'm understanding it correctly then Vodafone India merged with Idea Cellular in 2018 and they ran a large RI in 2019. I'm assuming that that is nothing to do with the Vodafone we're invested in today, but at the time it was the largest RI ever in India I believe and would have led to a 70% dilution for shareholders that did not particpate or sell their rights. Now, as I said I don't think this is our Vodafone today, but the rationale I believe was based on high levels of debt in the sector and ongoing difficulties in earning enough to cover it and run the business effectively. We are seeing a gradual erosion of value in Vodafone here and it does have substantial debt. I'd be very interested to know whether a RI is a possibility and to be honest after RR denying they were about to make one (just before they did exactly that), I would not find it easy to believe a denial from the company itself. They do get messy so I guess it is worth bearing in mind.

Many SH's don't really understand RI's and end up being well diluted.

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/story/rights-issues-explained-why-ignoring-them-doesnt-make-sense-188186-2019-04-12

I wondered about that, RI and consolidation. Somethings driving the price down here. I have no idea how likely those options are, but RR denied there's really soon before the did the RI. TUI had 3 RI"s and that hurt the share holders greatly.

Makes sense, you never really know where it will turn. I think it will though, just have to wait.

At the moment 71.4 or less and even 69 area are looking like places to watch. I suspect we'll see oilies drop a penny or two tomorrow.

I'm getting over excited. Thought we might get over 46 today

I'd be interested in understanding more about that too. The SP movements seem to be on low volume and yet there are out of market hours trades bumping the volume right up.

Quite a sudden fall

I can't remember who it was, but someone was calling 65-66p here a week or two back. Starting to look like a very astute call. How can this go?