Member Info for Stupmy

That's a bit naive wrt to the Houthi Jeffrey, they're well funded and each of their 2000 quid drones takes a missile costing 2 million to knock it out of the sky. They've pretty well shut the suez canal and are exposing the fragility of the Western war machine.

POO rising as you type that Jeffrey. Not sure why, but shipping costs for oil previously going via the suez canal have to have increased a lot.

I have a production report scheduled for 24th.

https://www.fresnilloplc.com/investors/investors-information/financial-calendar/

Thanks DB, largely what I thought, but as previously said there is much to the mechanics of the markets that's a mystery to me.

I know it's a lot more complicated than it seems. I occasionally try to understand it a bit more, but haven't suceeded. But, are you saying that you can bring the SP down without selling (on or off book).

Around 460 would be the low from Mar 9th 2020. An obvious area to watch for signs of support (I'm reading that off the weekly chart so it may not be the absolute low achieved)

How does that work JMAX? The SP dropping and that not being related to selling?

Bluemoon, if you're still around and referring to our exchange around 10/11th Jan, the gap has now closed. For me it's now worth watching for any sign of the bulls getting back in control of the SP. Doesn't mean it will happen soon, but now I'll start to watch more closely.

11th Jan in response to Bluemoon: For me the gap is not yet closed and I have not yet entered. After gap closure, look for signs that buyers are seeing some value."

It's interesting isn't it. HBR as well. Maybe HBR down beat RNS yesterday is giving a negative read across. Good rise in POO, you'd imagine that the ENQ sp should follow that even if there's a lag.

Email, I'm using this an example to learn. As I said, a lot to hope for on the arbitrage front and that would be too easy (like shorting but not paying out divis!). But, fortune favours the prepared mind.

Sorry, I misread/heard that.

I still have this moving to 65 or below and have not been tempted to re-enter yet. I will become increasingly interested if we do hit 65

I think that's an important part of it Mike, deal closes Q4. Scheduled news out of the way today and not particularly inspiring. We could just be entering a 'lull' and that build in inventories is not helpful either.

I guess no-one will want to hear this, but despite all the positive potential, the SP action is suggesting that it's increasingly likely that we'll see 270-268 and if that doesn't hold as support, then 235 or even the 223 area could come back into play. No-one can see into the future and I know it seems out of whack with everything being discussed here, but at the moment it looks to me that traders/investors are locking in profits and starting to get a little panicked. To turn it around might need news now such as Slim or directors buying more.

Yes, that makes sense. AJB saying 1 for 1 (but they hedged the comment with something along the lines of 'with shares at parity as they are currently'). They also said that it will be down to TUI to make that final decision. I guess it would be too easy to hope for a gap to open between SP in Lon vs FR and then getting 1 to 1 to exploit the arbitrage. Just thinking aloud. Doesn't need to help me here, but understanding a bit more clearly might help me move quickly should an opportunity arise.

I confused that by rushing. As you say 1000 GBP to 1000 Eur makes no sense assuming the exch rate is not 1:1. So you're saying the 1000 GBP in TUI shares would give you an equivalent value in euros rather than 1000 TUI shares in Lon giving 1000 Tui shares in FR?

Break that down for me TAM, you state as fact that 'At the very least half (if not more) of the fall here today (whatever the final percentage may be) is an over reaction'. How do you measure that, how do you quantify in an objective fashion rather than the way you feel about it.

Is that fact or guesswork Rogue.. From what you're saying, 1000 GBP of TUI shares will be converted to 1000 Eur TUI shares (so no arbitrage trade). My interest is whether or not there is a profit in arbitrage should the UK SP be sold down ahead of the Eur SP. If a margin opens up and the transfer is 1 share GBP for 1 Share Eur, there might be some interest in that spread

Semantics Baron, not the sort of thing that troubles me. Was a pretty random moniker in the first place!

Email, that's obvious, what's less clear is for those currently holding shares on LSE, what does the transfer to FR mean. The vote requires 75% in favour of delisting. Worth asking yourselves what the chances of getting that level are. What's the split between Lon/FR at the moment?