Member Info for Stupmy

I've got to say that I always work on the principle that if there is a possibility of change (-ve/+ve) the market will find a way to exploit that. So should we. It would seem to me that this review was one of a list of things that could be exploited to enhance the beta on the share and as such the market using one or more of them before the conclusion of the deal was 'inevitable'

Masai, this isn't specific to the Lon listing. FR SP is also dropping. In all probability the delisting argument (which was one reason I went short), doesn't hold a lot of water. Also, look at the wider markets, a wide variety of companies are falling in value. I personally would move away from the idea that this is TUI specific. It could however relate to the potential 'looming recession' and indications that the consumer is overstretched and that at some point, their discretionary spending will be reduced. At the moment all the news is optimistic on that front.

Not sure about that 15 yr low. Last low was Aug 18th on my daily chart with a SP touching just under 500. An area to watch. Seems to be good selling pressure for today.

I have 2 of his encyclopedias. I've chatted with him also. Very easy to talk to. Not snobby or difficult, just happy to chat.

I have the SP currently sitting on the neckline of the iH&S (Aug 24th to Dec 7th). That could be a point of interest. It broke up from that pattern on Dec 7th and hit it's logical target (based on Bukowski's work) near perfectly. Since then it's receded and now sits on the neckline (the upside break level). That's called a back test of the break for those interested and is something that happens frequently (there are different methods for isolating the backtest). If the SP was going to bounce, this is one area that might bring buyers in. I suspect we'll see further downside however and will see 510 or lower. I see POO is strong and you could put an argument forward that that is responsible for the SP falling back. I don't believe it though. Not sure what's happening, but TUI would appear to be undervalued and it's hard to imagine it will continue far to the downside. The delisting could reduced buying pressure on LSE, but the SP has fallen further in FR today than Lon so it's not clear that's a factor. Anyway, the charts suggest to me there is the potential for considerable further downside. I'm just struggling to rationalise why that might happen.

In my view (previously stated) 111.5 or lower is becoming more and more likely here. I'm still waiting.

It's a common discussion and I've seen some good explanations of it, just can't remember what they were. Mainly because I can't exploit it. From memory it's not a conspiracy or a code.

It's a slow burn isn't it BTFAT. I'd imagine that once people of tired of topping up and given up hope of seeing value, it'll fly!

No, I occassionally telegraph trades so folk know I'm not a billy bull sh it ter, but I've not done here.

2h chart below. Price breaking to the upside? Maybe worth watching.

https://screenrec.com/share/VXJTij5RZM

Does anyone know how the following would work.

Let's say I have 1000 TUI shares (LSE/GBP), then there is a vote in favour of delisting in Lon. Then in June the only listing is Frankfurt. What happens to my 100 shares. Am I automatically switched and given 1000 shares in Frankfurt? If not automatically, do I just switch to the FR exchange via my broker. Or is there some sort of arbitrage based on SP. If the UK and Ger SP drift apart due to a lack of buying pressure in Lon, do I still get 1000 shares in TUI in Frankfurt (whether automatically or after dealing with the associated paperwork?)

I didn't mean to belittle it by saying 'idea', it's clearly part of a strategy that aims to improve Voda's competitive position and bottom line. My point remains however, that until we see results, we don't know if it will deliver enough in the right time frame.

I'm using leveraged SB trades via Ig Markets for the shorts.

Stealth, it's possible that this mornings little jump in the SP is just retail getting over-excited about the RNS. Maybe I'm wrong, but until something solid is delivered, this is just hope that a strategic development will improve the bottom line. Time will tell, but I didn't read it and think 'my goodness, I must buy now or I'll miss the bus'.

Garonne, why do you say 'impressive', I see the possibility that it's dynamic, encouraging etc, but it's just an idea isn't it for the moment. Now they have to deliver on it and that will either be impressive or not?

I'm still short and I'm hoping for 510 or lower. But I have the privilege of watching it all day every day (more or less) so can drop out any time. I'm about 30p in profit and don't need to hold onto it tightly. It's just a trade. I notice there's further weakness in the FTSE and the US markets are also showing weakness. POO is more or less holding. I'll just watch and decide. But my hope is 510 or lower.

Stevo, feel the same way. Despite it being a good board, some believe they are in some way better than others. That arrogance is irritating. I just filtered them. Personally appreciate your posts, you bring something I wouldn't/couldn't bring myself. For me, these boards should be about sharing not poncing about believing you're in some way superior to others.

How bad has it actually been for your robleo? In theory you've 6 years of good dividends to compensate for the falling SP. Not sure if that's enough to give b/e but it can't be that bad can it?

I still think we're going to see 65 or lower and am waiting for those levels before considering an entry.

I'm short (stated from yesterday/day before). I stated the reason. POO on the up due to escalation of the Red Sea conflic I assume (another drag on TUI). But why is the SP coming off in FR as well as Lon? Am I actually wrong in the basic idea for my short? Is this unrelated to delisting in Lon? I think we'll see 510 or lower for the SP in Lon, but I suspect that we're going to see quite large drops in FR as well. If that's the case. There may be a good long opportunity in FR after the vote. If the vote is to leave LSE, that opportunity might be even bigger.

65 looks probable to me, maybe lower.