Member Info for Stupmy

A while ago I suggested that 370 might act as support (I am not hugely confident about that), but it's there now and I just entered a speculative long position based upon that. Currently no evidence the drop is over (hence speculative).

I'm doing ok here WW, but I'm locked into ENQ in the way you are here. It's all swings and roundabouts. I'm trying to be disciplined and not accumulate further risk. So I'm trading this actively in my 'trading account' and hoping that my shares are not trapped for too long.

Round about 450. Good profit, that's just my leveraged positions that I've built up. Not sold a share. Chart suggests a change in trend is imminent/happening. Looks like bottom around 407, higher low Oct 13th then a higher high marked today. In all probability the SP will rise nicely from here. If I get a chance below 440 I'll be considering buying back in. There are however other opportunities and you know what they say, it's sometimes good to spread risk.

OK Stille. No idea personally, but it's hook to look into if I do need another stock to watch.

Sounds good to me SK, both your analysis and your Spanish shenanigans!

That's funny, win win and lot's of demand. Enough demand for TUI and EZJ currently by the sound of things.

SK I pinched that from the EZJ board, but it's more appropriate here. Let's imagine that our results will be as encouraging as those of EZJ, we do offer a divi or the carot of a divi, then we might get a good rise if we don't offer to spend a lot of money on a 150 planes or whatever it was on EZJ (can't remember the cost bandied about on that, was it 10 billion over the next 10 years or so?). We actually could get a SP boost. Although having said that you'd imagine we'd have seen a positive read across if that was considered important by the market. It'll be interesting. Maybe just POO playing on minds at the moment (heading back to 90 for Brent), but even their hedging should protect us.

What's the problem with Whiz Stille? I don't follow it currently, but might as well learn a bit.

The last results from OTB had the SP rise from around 91p to 121. Big rise, positive view of the results by the market (thinly traded stock). From my point of view, using TA/Charts I couldn't get involved because I thought that 96 or below, then 91 or below then 83 or below were significant risks. That made no sense after the markets acceptance of the results and 35% rise in SP. But look now at the SP 96.6, I can't get involved there personally as the risk of the lower prices has very significantly increased. That was a view I had before it fell back. I've been saying on CCL 820 or below and 650 or below and neither area have been hit (990 or below has). For me, patience is key. If these stocks don't hit those levels then I won't hold them (I might trade them on an intraday view). I think both OTB and CCL will come down to those levels. Some of the stocks I have a view about will hit their levels. I'll get the ones that hit areas of value for me and I hope that in the process, I'll reduce the potential for losses and hopefully improve the chances of good profits. Timing is difficult. TUI has hit the 416 I suggested a day or two ago (on EZJ results been poorly viewed by the market). SP on TUI now stands at 415. I'm struggling from a fundamental value point of view to justify that price and will be looking to buy more should the SP show evidence of a turn to the upside. But I'm building into an decent sized opportunity cost. My share position is about 20-25% down now. I'm surprised. The concern I have is the general economy not the near term figures for TUI. Remember that when the stables burn down, the pretty horses come running out with the nags.

I think cuts are coming, but I don't know how fast. Maybe we have to get another rise, or a hold first. You've mentiioned loungers which I read and wasn't sure how significant it was (confirmation bias), although I did get the impression the overall message from them was that discretionary spend was still good for the moment. There was another RNS from Ashmore that was suggesting fund losses and withdrawels were elevated. Which might fit a more negative rhetoric. I have no idea what will happen, but I think there are signs out there that the walls have cracks appearing and if I can I'd rather not get caught should the house fall down.

Yes, this area could act as a support, but it looks as if the price is looking to the downside. Let's see where it closes.

Also joaung, the takeover idea if it ever gained traction seems like potential catalyst.

Avocet, the market cap of Ryanair is 22 billion (2nd largest airline in the world). EZJ is 3.7 billion. I'd have said it makes EZJ a much easier target for predation.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/airlines/largest-airlines-by-market-cap/

I'm looking it from a chart/TA perspective now Rich and it looks more likely that it'll fall back than not. I'm struggling to see supports. I guess the 370-375 area might be, but it doesn't look desperately convincing.

Good thinking Rich, 'll watch for that tomorrow.

You absolutely should make those points SK, it's a discussion board. Mostly I get what you're saying and my reason for highlighting the Ofgem RNS was that it would seem to indicate some real difficulty in the basic economy that is being taken seriously enough to influence political decisions. I think it's also relevant that credit card and auto-loan defaults were increasing (I think it was Aug last I'm looked at data). I really think things are not all that rosy. I saw the headline employment was very good state side but haven't looked at anything behind the headlines. In general, I don't think things look good for significant upside on European/US stock indices. I need to do a months worth of reading to be honest to figure out if something has changed. But I'm favouring down-side stock markets and some upside on US treasuries (I'm short FTSE and US50 (as of earlier today) and long on US 30yr treasuries (for a little while and down on that for the moment). There's a lot of talk now about a santa rally followed by a correction in the UK and US early next year. Very difficult to time these things, but if we got the santa-rally I'd rationalise some positions to free up cash.

It didn't exactly light a fuse under the SP, that's clear. I was surprised. I find it all difficult to understand sometimes. I'm wondering if it's about to drop to 416 or lower. After those results I had been thinking we were due a rise.

Here we go from dividend maz:

Dividend Summary

The next Harbour Energy Plc dividend went ex 1 month ago for 9.6208p and will be paid in 6 days. The previous Harbour Energy Plc dividend was 9.6579p and it went ex 6 months ago and it was paid 5 months ago. There are typically 2 dividends per year (excluding specials), and the dividend cover is approximately 3.8.

And this google up from somewhere: The buybacks comprised a $300 million programme which completed in September and a $100 million programme which was 57 per cent complete at year-end. As a result, over the course of 2022 we repurchased 8.5 per cent of our issued share capital.

That would suggest if 100% of the divi was re-invested it would equate to around 6mths of buy backs. Which you'd imagine was a sizeable time condensed boost to the SP. Still worth remembering that the 2022 stock buybacks have not led to a sustained rise in our price.

It's 8% a year isn't it and that's paid in 2 or 4 tranches during the year, so if 100% was re-invested it wouldn't be 8%. I'm being lazy here, but the share buy back is pretty good too and it's not causing a sustained raise in the SP. I understand the EPL/election type issues blocking excitement, but still, these swings are almost metronomic and although I get it that sometimes they co-incide with Spot oil prices, I'm not convinced that explains the SP swings in total. I don't know what does.. Many on here know I'm trading it. I have a stable holding in ENQ which is making me nothing, but HBR is like the penny falls and I don't know why.

Talking about gloom for some sectors, did you see the Ofgem RNS this morning. Things are showing some systemic cracks out there. Best not to be too complacent I'd have said.

How big is the dividend vs the buyback amounts. They don't seem to be enough to give a sustainable rise for the moment.