Member Info for Stupmy

Exactly WW and as I say I thought 425 was a fantasy figure, but here we are and I'm buying back. A bit more evidence of a turnaround and I'll probably add shares, but there are also other stocks I'm interested in at the moment so I'm not sure yet.

Price dipping as you're posting Mike! Looks like it might want to check out 234.

I've taken a first speculative long position on the basis of the price reaching (almost) the short term tl support around 242. If it dropped further I'd look to significantly increase my position.

For not seeing 14p and below again. That, apparently was a bit hopeful

SP still on the backfoot presumably still linked to the dollar and POO (brent still falling off). I have short term tl support coming into play at around 241/242. That might hold or trigger a bit of buying. If not, there is a slightly stronger rising tl support from the low around 217 (26th June) to 25th August and if we get there the next touch would be around 234 at the moment (rising every day). Overall the period march to now still looks like a bottoming pattern and personally I am still looking to buy if there's evidence of the price changing direction.

Some buyers appear to be around so I've taken my profit and will look to re-enter short if we rise. For the moment I'm out. I don't need much of a rise to make it worthwhile as the spread on VOD is good. I still think we'll see 75 or 71 and am still looking to short, but am out for the moment.

That was kind of what I was saying when I responded to your initial post. It isn't and it takes work and after that conviction in your decisions. Whatever you do you can lose money and you'll not be right all the time. And yes, of course I make bad decisions. If there was a rule that 10% of the time gave you a good decision, then you'd be like a computer making money hand over fist. There isn't, you just have to look at lot's of angles and decide what's more likely and what's less likely and think about time. E.g. you say VOD is low, I agree, that means over time it's more likely to rise than fall. It means if you enter today and it falls away, there's a good chance that you'll see 76 p again in the future and you'll not have lost and you'll get your divis. But, it's unlikely that an out of hours news event will happen between today and tomorrow, so since it's more likely that there will not be a news event then I can short in the hope of seeing 75 and then maybe 71p. If there's a news event we could see 100 tomorrow and I'll lose 23 p or so. All risk as no-one can see into the future. Anyone who talks confidently about tomorrow is someone to be cautious about.

I think it was Shakineven, that rings a bell in association with that call. Sorry, but lazy but couldn't be bothered to check back. For the price, no idea, 425 seems good. I guess lower is possible. Since I believe CCL will fall to 820 or lower (possibly/probably 650 over time), it's difficult to feel confident about TUI in the near term. I'll wait and see. I'll probably buy more.

TUI stock like that of most sensible companies has a true value, not the value ascribed by the market on any given day which I guess you could call the real value, but the value that will be judged by the market over time. I guess that's the basic idea of the sound byte 'it's not timing the market, it's time in the market' that matters. I don't agree with that as I think both are important, but as with most sound bytes, there's a pithy truth in there.

I don't think I said that robleo, I try both short and long depending on the market and what I think about it. For the moment I'm in profit short on Voda, I've been making good money short on US500 and FTSE recently but am out for the moment. I try to adapt what I'm doing to what seems to be happening. I think I was just suggesting that if you believe it's obvious that all markets are dropping, short them and you'll make money if you're right.

OK, I said I'm not exposed, but I am. I'd forgotten that I'd place limit buys on the off chance. I will say very clearly now that I did not believe that we would see 425 so it's not my call, it was just an idea that if it happened it would be a good price to restart buying leveraged positions. Not only does it turn out that I'm in, but I'm in profit (on those positions!!). GLA

I've forgotten who it was, but not the call. Very cool call. Good work sir (or Ma'am). Very impressed. I've not yet re-entered on leverage and have not sold any shares, despite the profits I've made from trading this, which were very good, I'm negative overall at 425 and b/e on my shareholding something below 500.

Sorry, 2nd part of your message. Good question and for most the answer will be trite. Look back over the chart (I favour daily/and 2h). Track every gap and see what happens to them over time. There's a gap to 71, the price on VOD had increased recently but over time it's a very slow mover I figured what has happened every time up until now will happen again. No reason to suddenly believe 'it will be different this time'. Odds are in my favour, but timing is very difficult. 75 looks very likely, spread is very tight so small moves are enough to give profit, 71 remains possible.

I'm with Ig also and have come across what you're talking about. I've not been forced out of positions, but I've had positions move to 'close only'. Not sure if that's the same as you're saying or you were really forced to close. I deal almost exclusively with FTSE 250 so mostly reasonably liquid shares (VOD Is very liquid) that are not likely to move to 'close only' status. It is annoying when a you are no longer able to 'open and close' positions as it robs you of an awful lot of flexibility in you're work. Yes, for leveraged trading I'm with IG. I did try others but outages meant I was unable to react a bit too often when I wanted to react.

Dan, I'm not reading GS's comments in general, but I am short 20 yr treasuries and I am losing. So something there rang a bell. I'm interested in any view that might explain why my own is 'a bit sh i t'.

If you know it's all going down robleo, short it and you'll still make money every time you're right. I didn't wait for the whole market to turn down, to start shorting. I took a view on Voda. It'll be right or wrong, but it's backed with my money.

You certainly know your stuff robleo. Good comment.

GS, do you have a view on the bond yields (I'm long on t 20 year treasuries and it's staring to feel irritating)!

Also, botbot, 30k is not enough.

i said this to another poster recently who seemed interested in a genuine convo. if you're interested in discussing ideas go to advfn and pm me. i'm stupmy there also. always very happy to share, although mostly when i do i get kicked in the teeth. if i'm right, i'm lucky, if i'm wrong, i'm an ****. to be honest i've had enough for the moment, but pm me if you want to and we can chat in detail that wouldn't be apropriate on this bb.

I've spent many years as almost a lock-in, building a small pot into something that can pay a wage. Getting there now as far as the dream is concerned. Hard work though, not like the young studs on the t.v. with their flash cars and white teeth! Some of them end up on crime watch and it turns out that their success was not all it was cracked up to be!

I've actually not lived in the UK for 15 years. Currently in France.