Member Info for Stupmy

Looking good for the moment. I'm hovering close to b/e on my leveraged trades and think we'll move to 482 quite quickly. That would be nice! I wish we could actually see into the future, maybe just for a week. We'd all be wealthy. In the meantime, I'll just keep trying to weigh up the odds on what happens next.

How are my girlfriends DM and OCD getting along? Did you buy? Is this the bottom?

I'm starting to wonder whether we've formed a double bottom. In which case we may not see another close below 14p (13.9). If that were true, then it would seem probable that we'll see 17.3, 17.9 and above in the near future. I shall continue to accumulate, but would probably be dropping some if we did close below 14.

Bought a few more. I'm still early, but am hoping for a signal that we've bottomed for now. With a 60-70p difference between my b/e and my more recent entries, I'm hoping I can bring down my b/e a bit to trade out and rationalise the size of my position.

I don't have confirmation, but I'm hoping that things have turned and we'll see some recovery. I've also been loading up on leverage.

I was thinking the same O, does this imply in anyway that there has been an agreement based on some change in the EPL? Both HBR and ENQ appear to have benefitted and I think this news was expected before today as the SP has been looking to the upside. I'd say 15 is very likely in the very near future. After that who knows, but I'm hopefull we'll see some meaningful upside and I've been adding around 14.

Rosebank going ahead. Ithaca RNS. I'm guessing that's given us and ENQ a lift via a positive read-across. Does that imply that some kind of agreement has been made regarding the future of the EPL? 3.8billion is a lot to comit to the NS.

I guess with long lead times on supplying this additional space and pre-booking, it's still not a clear picture of what is to come. But I have read elsewhere WackWack the idea that it's actually the older buildings that are no-longer wanted and the newer ones are still in demand. It's an interesting area from my point of view.

SK, I can't help thinking that you're wrong on that one, I don't think that the collapse of our town centres an be isolated in that way to simpley affecting those who have to go there. If you tink about it, you're almost saying that we're headed into an increasingly lonely future where contact wtih other people will primarily be via electronic means. I have to at least hope that face to face retains a very important part in our lives whether that be in business or buying goods or getting our kids out and about to experience the world and the views of other people first hand.

SK, I was thinking about that, maybe SAGA's cruise/travel side of the business is actually protected in some way from a downturn that others might be more exposed to. That'll be interesting to watch in the future.

Maybe your right SK, time will tell. I can't help worrying about the state of our city centres, high street retail, policing, crime etc. This one looks like a very big one to me, much bigger than blockbuster etc. I do get your point though and accept it's a salient one.

SAGA RNS this morning. Revenues up, debt down, profit in-line. Expansion of Cruise and travel. I'm not expert on accounts, but looks generally positive without setting the world alight.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SAGA/interim-results/16141190

There was a post and counter-post about commercial real estate. The counterpost mentioned a bit tongue in cheek the 'hitherto' unrecognized link between chinese property and TUI.

I'd previously mentioned a REIT starting to suffer as part of it's rental portfolio hadn't been paid all year and this year was cut completely forcing the REIT to realise a loss. Sorry I can't remember the REIT in question. There was a comment on that REIT actually having some 'odd' business practices and that it was perhaps an isolated case.

Here's another sign that the commerical property sector is struggling in Europe as well as China. Meta is paying British Land 149 million pounds to release itself from it's rent contract on 1 Triton Square London, despite the agreement on that office block having a further 18 years to run. Same happening in the US (e.g. San Fran, Portland). This is not an isolated event, it's looking like a trend. Companies are cutting back hard and at some point it'll feed through to job losses. All those shouting for their rights to WFH are likely to get a rude awakening in the near future. There could be a reset on the employment front that has big repercussions on the wider economy.

US markets continuing to drop away a little. POO staying high, but no meaningful increase in shorts. So the shorts that there are would appear to have made some good money.

Not sure the move is really as significant as 30% in reality avocet. That probably sounds daft as depending on how you want to see it, you can easily say it's 'simple fact'. But I'm not clear the SP has settled and completed what needs completing post RI. Post RI we were around 500, we ran up to almost 640, but those that needed to have been dumping shares (RUMP included) all the way up. In addition, anyone buying around 500 had a great chance to realise a big profit. Additionally, there are a large number of holders sat on positions a long way out of the money, which leaves plent of space for poor sentiment and 'throwing in' of the towel. I still don't see a specific problem in the way the company is doing business. Rightly or wrongly I think this is a process, painful for many, but one that will resolve with the SP well above 500 (I need that personally). My view remains that we will see 760 or higher. No idea how long that will take though and it will probably be affected by the wider economy.

I'm guessing the 'hitherto' unrecognized link between chinese property and TUI is channeled via the wider issue of dropping productivity in china, deflation and export of deflation to the US. It would seem at the moment as if employers are hesitant to drop employees with an optimistic view of an economic recovery as it takes time/money and effort to re-recruit and train if you let people go. However, it does seem that total renumeration is dropping (reduced hours worked per employee) because the advance factory orders are not where we'd like them to be. At some point, there won't be any way employers can justify keeping staff on even with reduced hours. After that point (assuming that the economy does not recover), jobs will be lost and discretionary spending power will fall. At that point we'll start to see how important holidays really are to people as we'll start to see whether or not demand remains high. It's a guess at the link suggested by an earlier poster, no more. What's clear is that the property sector in China and the US are in trouble at the current time.

I'm with you on that as is often the case Hexam. DM is prone to conspiracy theories and his/her decisions are only ever wrong because the world is full of charlatons.

It has been fast and it isn't comfortable, but that in itself is telling you something. I don't think for one second it it telling you something about the company itself, but it's likely telling you about sentiment. There's a top and bottom to every move and it's not easy to pick them, but we're closer to the bottom here, than we were at 500. So for the moment patience is going to pay off for example for Shakin. But you have to make a decision at some point. It's not an easy business.

Aliens and conspiracy theories again girlfriend (DM)?

As long as TUI is sound, which I believe it is, then it becomes a question of time. Buying low and selling high is not easy and there'll be lots of ups and downs over time, but 430 is a lot lower than 500 (my b/e) and if I'm right that 500 represented good value, then 430 is better value. Might be trapped here for longer than I'd hoped though.

Rightly or wrongly, I'm treating it as an opportunity.

Shakin, having revisited the chart, I can draw a line june 8th/Jun 27th/Sept 1st that would give the next touch currently at around 420 (at the time you called 425 it may well have been that as it's a descending tl). Very surprised to see it come off that far. I'm assuming it's related to general concerns about the economy, bank tightening measures, and discretionary spending. It's not obvious that it's directly targeted at TUI.