Member Info for Stupmy

Getting biblical now. 630 or more dead in Morocco following an earth quake of 6.8 on the Richter Scale. I guess, that's meeting you and raising again.

Thanks for that. I do struggle with understanding that side of things. Price has recoverd somewhat, but I have to say it had me worried for a moment there.

We're off almost 4p (over 10%) surely that's not on volume of 3400? I have to say I'm unclear on your thoughts 5eight

I've been checking the RNS's and there's nothing I can see to justifies the drop today. Anyone any idea why we're off so much?

SK, passport control problems at heathrow T4, causing chaos now. Someone upstairs has it in for the travel industry at the moment.

I've added to my long position both on shares and SB. Fingers crossed we'll see 480/482 today.

I assume the price is down due to selling off by our Swedish counterparts. That could hold the price back for a reasonable period. For the buy backs, it's not obvious that it has pushed the HBR SP forward despite them also paying a generous divi. Buybacks and divis would have the SP here moving up if the political/fiscal back drop in the UK was easier (i.e. EPL substantially moderated and no threat of labour making it harsher). For now, we're stuck with 'a buying opportunity' (again).

I was the same overnight Stille, but in reality I have more than I should have aleady. I did add to my spread bets yesterday. I'm still quietly confident that we're due a good sized upside rally on TUI. Only 10 days to our update also. Maybe some buyers will try to get in prior to that? Also, looks possible the US markets will rise from here (I closed 30% or so of my short at a profit, but will hold the rest, but have forced open a long position also; just milking the ups and the downs). If we do rise from here, then I'd imagine that TUI will benefit as European markets often follow the US.

Sewton, so far you're a lot closer than I was. Good call on 231. Hasn't quite been there, but 232 is close enough

I do think the point on buybacks from Mike and Stingray is important and that when they stop, we could see further falls in the SP, but I've had a 3rd buy, this one at just over 237. That'll do me for the moment and I'm stuck holding Enq long term so at the moment I don't need to hold HBR long term.

I've bought a 2nd tranche, I personally don't think it'll drop a lot further (unless as Mike suggests they drop the buybacks).

I've barely left my screens today. I had other plans, but that's not worked out. When it looks like something is going to move in my favour, I do my best to stick around to exploit it. Today, I'm hoping to buy HBR at a good price. I have one limit buy placed, but will buy manually as well should the price come off a bit more. Right, my first buy has triggered as I type.

Removing the buybacks would seem to logically suggest lower prices to come should there be no improvement in the investment climate for the UK NS. That's a good point Mike and one to keep an eye on.

SK, it's starting to feel biblical now! 10 Earthquakes in 24h in the canary islands!

Still, jet2 appears to have ignited out SP

Xpo, there are a lot on this board in favour of the divis and the buybacks. I'm understand your arguments and as stated below, might even agree to an extent, but under easier circumstances, I'd be wholeheartedly behind both the buybacks and the divi. I'd be hoping for a sustained rise in the SP. The only way to get a reward from the risk of investing in the UK NS recently appears to be by trading. I've got a static (opportunity cost) position in ENQ, but am pleased to have made the decision a few months ago to start trading HBR, that's been very profitable, to some extent making the ENQ positions more tolerable. It's a terrible situation at the moment for those risking investing in the UK NS.

With a different backdrop xpo45, the share buy backs and the divi should be leading to a rise in the SP, particularly with POO staying at a reasonable level and even moving up recently. I suspect that the EPL/risk of it getting worse if a Labour government get in, is negating all the theoretical benefits of what HBR management have been trying to do. So taken in conjuction with a terrible environment to be doing business at the menent (UK NS), might be right, the company might do better to accumulate cash. However, you could always argue that without the buybacks and divis, the SP would have slipped lower than it is currently. Interesing times for sure.

Logically you should have been right. Good brent price should have lent support. I think general market jitters are quite high at the moment. Many people feel we're near a tipping point as far as US/European economies are concerned

If it does get to 231 and I personally doubt that, then I'll be buying a fair few. Risk reward at that price seems quite good to me

Mike, then there's the risk of recession. It's kind of on the never never, but that similar with a transition from the current EPL to whatever the next government actually does (what they say they'll do isn't necessarily what they'll actually do). The US, Ger, Fr and UK stock markets are starting to look pretty shaky and most US data on jobs looks ok at first glance but gets revised down a few days/weeks later. That is not a good sign. In theory (the way I understand it) if we do enter a recession, POO will fall.

I'd forgotten about them as I'm focussed elsewhere. They have a rationale for what they're doing, but they have to pay the divi. Seems like a risky move to put so much faith in an over reaction to the divi that you actually short it. I suspect their rationale is not that. When these groups go short they often hold over long periods. I'd have assumed that the short positions are related to the odds of labour getting into power. But that's just guesswork.