Member Info for Stupmy

CCL falling away. Will TUI follow?

That's good news at lest SK, will be interesting to see whether we get a positive read across or whether wider turmoil spoils the moment.

I wondered the same. I'm short US500 which has been of benefit over the last few weeks, and again now. I was wondering whether last nights activity could translate into some drops on the UK market. To be honest, that's not clear from the UK futures. We'll see. Hard to imagine that there will be a positive impact on the FTSE.

Stock market falls generally follow a reduction in interest rates SK, in my view that is to be expected. I think the Fed and the public have too much faith in the fed's ability to control the markets. This could be the start of a more sustained fall. Then again, with enough 'ifs' you could put Paris in a bottle. That's the most difficult thing about markets and trying to exploit them. No-one (including the Fed) actually has any control over them.

I was teasing you.

Don't worry about the name, really not important. We finished quite high, that's a positive sign for tomorrow at least.

Are you saying you think it needs to exceed 500 before it can move above 500 seen it done it?

From a TA perspective, it's getting very interesting. In the absence of bad news (whether TUI related or not) we look very close to moving up a lot. 500 appears to be a resistance for now (that is unlikely to hold for long) for a couple of chart related reasons (that just gives buyers and sellers an area to buy and sell (i.e. it's just a place on the chart where a decision is made; not voodoo as some people try to make it out). A close over 500 brings a longer term descending tl resistance into play (currently about 518 which co-incides with a technical resistance. I think we'll see that level in the very near future (this week?). A further battle between buyers and sellers is likely at that point and my call is that buyers will win it.

Here's my view of the likely short term movements

https://screenrec.com/share/LIDpJzqP2O

Maybe the inflation news bumped the price up, maybe not, but I took 5p this morning on a very small trade I opened yesterday. I sold at around 493. I'd really, really like to see this fall back to the 465 area (I have no mid-term concerns about the stock I hold). I'd just like the opportunity for another good short term trade before we see a more sustained upside move.

SK I personally think we're very undervalued and still believe that the TERP holds value. I can't explain why we are so far under that level. Because of that positive view of the company, I guess I could apear to be 'a ramper'. I actually do my best to simply understand what's happening.

From a TA view I see 760 (not 750 as someone posted earlier) and higher as very likely over a period of time. Figuring out what that time period is, is difficult but if there is no recession I'd argue it won't take that long (maybe first of half of next year?). For now the results from the whole sector look encouraging, but I suspect it's the forward looking statements that are being treated cautiously by the market. I suspect the market believes that a recession is on it's way.

If this was just sellers, then probably a lot of it is those that want to take a quick profit from this move to the upside. After a reasonable time below these prices, there are plenty of people sitting at profit and they could even be holding quite large numbers of stock. In theory, the update was positive (unless I'm reading it wrongly), suggesting that it hightlights the value in TUI. That should encourage some buying (as long as general market sentiment is permissive). Afterall, there's a little while now before the risk associated with a new scheduled update. I think we'll see the buyers come in fairly soon. I think I'll be very lucky to see 465 in the near term, but as I hold stock I actually don't need to trade on leverage unless it seems like a 'too good to be true' kind of thing. I'm a fan here and might struggle to stay out even above 465, but I'll try to be patient and try to buy only when I have good 'buys signals'.

I don't agree with the conspiracy theorists and think that is a lazy approach, that avoids having to try to understand what's happening. I could of course be wrong, but I prefer to stick to the rational.

I don't know at all, at a guess I'd say mostly this is just people selling their stock. Without specific knowledge of something negative, this does not look like a good short target to me. I have not shorted. I just sold, on the basis that the SP hit some selling around 495/496 and I thought it possible the price would come back to complete the 465 move that was left unfinished. Having said that, I didn't really think it would happen as the update seemed positive to me. I just closed out to book the profit on the basis it was done in my trading account on leverage and I have plenty of stock in a longer term account. Just seemed logical to play both ends on this one.

Obviously for some reason, this mornings update has left some doubt in the market. I think it's entirely possible we'll see a retrace to 467 or even that 465 I'd been waiting for. Should that happen, I'll happily start buying again.

I have to say, I've never seen SK as deramping.

I closed out yesterdays levaraged buys at around 494. I think it will go much higher, but my leverraged account is a trading account. My shares are not yet at b/e. You never know we could see a little pull back before futher upside progress. I'm not at all confident of that though.

I've added this morning around 16.7. From a TA perspective it's entirely possible that it's wobbling around in a bottoming pattern. You could even all the recent price action a potential double bottom on a short term basis, but it's a bit premature in reality.

Moochee, that sounds great, let's hope it's a general theme for this update. Fingers crossed and GLA for tomorrow.

Well, looks as if if we are going to hit 465 it will be either after the uncrossing trade out of normal hours, or a drop tomorrow on some form of disapointment. I've bought a little before close at around 468, sticking to my view that the results should be ok.

I think it would be a mistake to go down the conspiracy theory route and run with the belief that someonein the market is being briefed and bailing. Most frequently (not always), things are quite tight.

Interesting that CCL and OTB are off also today.

I'm watching it (it's been closer). Very important to understand that no-one knows what's going to happen. I still think we'll see 465. If we do, the next question is do we go lower or turn and rise. To go lower in the near term would suggest something viewed negatively in tomorrows update. If we see 465 and I'm here at my screens. I'll probably enter a modest position. It's all risk though, US came off on friday and looks to be waiting now. Futher falls in wider markets could negate even good results from TUI. One way of considering things is 'are we likely to see these prices or higher in the nearish future even if there is a dip. I contend that we are, so even if there is some pain, it's likely to be short lived.

Despite someonce entitling this 'getting ready to pop', I think the risk has increased quite a lot that we'll see further falls. I'm exposed and down, but it does look as if we are seeing the start of a break to the downside from a short term consolidation pattern from around 6-8th of Sept. Hope I'm wrong.

The update is tomorrow OSG so not long to wait at all. It would seem to be a safe bet that our results will be encouraging along similar lines to related reported results. I wouldn't bet against that personally. However, for some reason the SP is languishing. I have not bought back my leveraged positions as the price has not yet hit or exceeded 465 to the downside (according to my data), it's been close, but no cigar for the moment. I have shares so if the price rises after results I still stand to benefit. I personally could imagine 550 soon after results. But only time will tell.