Member Info for Stupmy

I wish I could understand why SP moves the way it does. The divi explains some of todays move, but it really looks like it will get to 235 or below. Why? It makes no sense. I've been doing this long enough to know that it's better for me to wait and not to jump in on what appears to be an over reaction. But I think that over reaction is going to get worse and I have no idea why. Wish I did. There's something unsatisfying about not understanding.

I think we're going to see 235p. That will seem mad bearing in mind that POO is on the up after that big draw, but from a TA perspective I have 235 or lower as very likely. I will be buying back if we do see those levels again.

So they've absorbed the wildfires and the air-traffic control problems. The flooding in Skiathos will form part of the next update I guess. That has to give hope for a positive read across for TUI. SP maybe on the front foot today? Only 12 days before TUI update.

No answer then Scot. Does that mean you rode the SP into profit and rode back down again? Cool. Good work.

Scot did you sell any shares to lock some profit in when it rose, after years of being on the wrong side of this, in theory you finally got into a position of profit. Did you sell?

SP back to 13.5 pence then. Before someone tells me to read the RNS, I'm aware that the placing is at over 18p. When if the SP does hit or exceed 13.5 p to the downside, I'll buy again. I'm feeling very lucky to have sold out before this announcement.

Boyasaka, what is the thing with the extra shares. It's been touched on by others here since the 3rd RI. We've had lots of discussion about the TERP (around 800p from memory) and then there was at least one person arguing that the increase in the number of shares might be important with respect to the fact that the SP has nto come anywhere near the TERP.

Before the 3rd RI, TUI shares were in demand and buying had pushed the price quite high, there was a drift down into the RI date from which the TERP was calculated and that gave us the money to pay back the German governments bailout and for those who had enough cash on hand could have resulted in no financial loss had the SP maintained the TERP. Which it clearly didn't. So, if the shares were in demand prior to the RI with a lot more debt, why are they not in demand now when there's a reasonable argument that travel firms are doing well post-covid? Is there a link to the increased number of shares? Obviously I get your point about MCap as, as long as the SP is below the TERP, then the MCap has fallen after the RI and the pay down of debt. It just isn't making any sense to me. I'm personally treating it (as stated throughout the mechanics of the process) as an opportunity and assuming the market is wrong in marking the SP down to this level (459 as I type). Has anyone come up with a reason for the discrepancy? Am I being naive (that's very possible) in my belief that the company is now undervalued and will recover (I think to 760 or above)?

I hope it's not me that's pushing the SP up as that would just be chasing my own tail. I have started to add shares (previously I've been adding leveraged positions). I assume the rise in SP is related to the POO rather than my buys, but the volume in the last hour or so has been low.

Well divi or not, we've now seen 112.5. I'm watching now for a long entry.

Indeed SK, can't be long before we start to get something biblical. I've not gone back to compare this year formally with previous years, but I do get the impression that things have been relatively complicated this summer.

More weakness for TUI today, I'm guessing that's related to the flooding in greece.

I've just checked and found that the ex-divi date is Aug 3rd? Is that right? So we're not necessarily expecting a fall back? I've mis-interpreted something someone here has posted by the look of things.

Quite frequently there's a run up in SP prior to a divi (almost 7% in this case), then a fall back after ex-divi date. For the moment, the SP here appears to be following a TA path, but I think once we've seen 112.5 or lower, we'll see the more typical rise and fall over the ex-divi period. I jumped the gun a little and bought (thinking we'd possibly see the run up prior to the fall back if you see what I mean. Seems we'll get the drop first. I'm watching closely now for another entry to the long side.

Martinen, I agree with that completely, I think you put it well. You're maybe a clearer thinker than I am. Although the fundamentals are essential in the longer term, the mechanics and human sentiment side of things are also worth thinking about when it comes to making decisions on buying/selling.

Thanks for engaging Papagoja also as it's important to get a feel for the Swedish side of this 'problem'.

So far, there seems to be a little buying pressure in the UK so maybe the bottom is in? As with so many things, only time will tell and hindsight is useless so it's time to make decisions. I've added once this morning and may add further.

Good figures from WHS this morning with their Travel related activities being particularly strong. Might bode well for our upcoming update. I guess though that whereas the vagureries of the weather might improve WHS figures by leaving people stuck in airports etc, they would be negative for TUI at some level.

The basic picture according to the work by Martinen/Papagoja/Sekford et al seems ok for ENQ. Just a question of time until we start to pull the SP around and get back to b/e or profit etc depending on mean entry price. The mechanics will be interesting now as there could be continued selling from the Swedish side as positions are rationalised following that delisting notice. Although that's primarily likely to be selling on the Swedish exchange, I guess it would bring our SP down in the UK or at least keep it low for longer until the selling selling/transitioning from Sweden to UK etc is complete. Might suggest that there's no rush to buy here for the moment. But it might also be suggesting that this is now an opportunity for those using the UK exchange to enter or rationalise our positions. I'm having a bit of a think about significantly increasing my positions to bring my average down (with a view to dropping some at b/e if we were to get there). Lot to think about at the moment.

Sales on the slide but lettings holding up.

Skiathos holidays a bit of a downer now. It's non-stop with the vagueries at the moment. Flooding and holidaymakers stranded. That's a TUI mainstay I'd have thought.

I'm not in a position to answer or even speculate on that Martinen so I can't help at all there I'm afraid.

More or less my thoughts too (lazy though as I've not checked normal daily volume of buys/sells on the swedish exchange). I did see your post regarding overall volume (which was, to me a surprise, big volume). I also believe there's more selling to come.

JAd, my initial view had been a bit 'lite' in that I only considered the 'cost saving' side of the comments in the update. I hadn't considered the 'selling down' on the swedish exchange side of things. Not sure what to make of it all now as I do think that retail investors can be pretty slow to make decisions/execute on them. Obviously there has been some selling though. I didn't watch the Swedish exchange, did that come off fastest and hardest? I'm watching the UK price which isn't obviously directly affected by Swedish selling. If there really is an arbitrage possibility here, you could even argue that there should be a gap opening up between the Swedish price and the UK price. All very interesing and if anyone has a handle on what is really happening here, I'd love to read about it.

I have to say JAd, I'm not convinced by that. I'm also not convinced that Swedish selling has knocked 11% off our price that fast. If it's PI's, in my experience, they typically take a little while to make and then act on their decisions. I have no proof one way or another, I just suspect that the drop is not due to the delisting argument.