Member Info for Stupmy

Closed out all of my TUI leveraged long positions for the weekend. Reasonable profit but way off the top. CCL results apparently not well received. Negative read across to TUI to an extent. I'll check it all out again next week. Not sold any shares.

LSE, I think BT will come off to below 113. I think VOD is beginning it's move towards 71 or lower. I haven't added to my short, but on monday I'd be looking for opportunity to do so.

I have the SP currently testing it's rising tl support at around 34. A close below that would appear to favour a shorter tmer rising tl suppor at 33.5 (not a big drop). After that there are areas of technical suppor to around 32, but there's also a downside gap to just under 30p. I'm trading in and out and am currently out, but watching closely as I'd been hoping the SP would come off and hoping, in fact to see 30p or lower. I didn't have a lot of confidence that would happen, but it's looking increasingly possible.

What do we want? We want an easing of the EPL terms. What are we now seeing? We're seeing what we want to see. What evidence do we have for a change in the EPL? None. What evidence do we have for Labour coming on board with Rosebank's future? None. Is there a precedent for such an agreement involving incumbant and potentially incoming governments? I have not idea.

I think it's wise be cautious here about what is happening. I'd like to think that there has been some assurance related to Rosebanks, but a large part of me favours Sekforde's view. As with most things, only time will tell. For the moment, something is easing the pressure on SP, maybe it's just POO and the puts vs collars.

If you want to talk offline SK we can pm on advfn or Chartsview. I have the same moniker on advfn but am Shotry on CV. Feel free. I'm happy to discuss ideas etc. I'm sure you see stuff I don't and sometimes I might have stuff you haven't.

Here on TUI, I think 450 is important. A close above is specifically important in my eyes and significantly increases the chance of a run up to 482 ish. The reason I mention that is that it's a criteria now for me to add.

OTB looking for the next leg down from what I can see of the chart. That could see it at 95/96 or after that if there's no change in sentiment there may be a 'buying opportunity' at around 91 (after that it looks to be 82/83. Those would be pretty big drops and not sure what would cause them, but it would fit with my view of CCL from a TA perspective. My question would be how TUI would fair should there be a substantial fall off.

I suspect the price is about to fall to 71 or so. I've taken a short position in case I'm right. Wider markets are shaky (i.e. general sentiment is poor), simply a TA view, not related to any knowledge of the fundamental position of the company.

Fingers crossed this draws a line under what has been a very tedious and painful period for shareholders. I'm actually having to force myself to add at times as I have developed some sort of underlying antipathy towards ENQ as an investment and I suspect I'm not the only one struggling to allocate more money here. I also suspect from cold logic rather than the way I feel, that in a few months time it will seem to have been an astute decision to continue to invest here.

Whatever happens, whether we turn out to be smart or dumb money, GLA and I have everything crossed in the hope of this finally coming good after a sh i t 2 years or so.

Stille, there is certainly a point at which holding for a longer period is likely to be a good way forward. TUI has a value, the question is 'what is it'. In a trite way, the value is 449.6 a share (current price). But you need to figure out how the company is going to be valued moving forward. I have had (and still have) a tendency to drop positions too quickly. That's worked well recently as the market is no long rising, but it leaves me well out of the bigger moves when they come sometimes e.g. HTG in the recent past (weeks) and yesterday I closed HBR which I think migh very well move a fair bit higher now. HBR has been great to trade, good beta and good profits, but in a few weeks time it could be a lot higher.

exactly sk, don't play the **** or bust game, go steady and build a bit at a time. sounds like you and your wife work so what you're investing is maybe not needed day to day, don't take any out. keep it for investing. you'll have good times and bad times, but if you're sensible you'll make money over time. don't get emotional over it (i don't think you do). when i started i actually made the decision to turn what was a hobby into a full time effort. for 6 mths it was ace, i put money in the market and the market threw more back at me. i thought i was gifted, was i f... it was of course an across the board bull-run. i lost a lot after that then settled and tried to learn and was persistent, had many difficult times, but i've survived. i don't think that a single one of my virtual colleagues (over the years i've worked with many people from many countries) is still trading. many lost a lot and didn't continue. you don't even have to be a brainiac, but you do have to try to understand your faults/weaknesses, as not all traits are suited to the markets. i think if you're patient, manage your money and don't over-expose then you'll do well over time.

I'm certainly enthusiastic about anything that changes for the better for NS oil. That's not just self-interest, I genuinely don't think that the EPL was a well thought through or appropriate tax policy. If there is a chance of positive change it would be very interesting to know who knows in advance. They stand to make an awful lot of dirty money.

I didn't want to get excited enough to think far past 18 p or so BTF, but I do agree, that 21p seems quite likely. That would make a very big difference to me in fact.

That instability seems important to me, but it looks as though the SP wants to rise for the moment (albeit from the ashes). Be interesting to see whether we get a decent period of growth (in SP) or just another swing high from this move. I can't believe that I'm getting excited about 15.2

SK I now have many years of experience. There's nothing very impressive about it. It's largely about overcoming my own weaknesses such as fear of making a poor decision, impulsivity, over-confidence, poor risk aversion, confirmation bias, lack of patience etc, the belief that those that speak with confidence are to believed etc. There are many weaknesses out there and I have my fair share.

On the technical side I could teach you everything I know in an afternoon. That's probably hyperbole, but I'm just trying to highlight that it's accessible to anyone and everyone and you can do it yourself. You can learn everything you need to learn for free. It's taken me years, probably because I'm slower than many, I find it harder to control myself than many, I'm so far away from a cold calculating computer that you'd imagine I could not succeed from the outside. In the real world, no-one knows I'm doing ok. It's hard work. I have no idea about your finances, but mine have gradually improved (they did not start high) over the years because I have made plans and stuck to them. Really boring stuff (no crypto!). I started wtih an aim for 6% a year (that's now not really enough because I pay 30% tax on all gains now. 9% would be better! Just be patient, have a plan (I personally avoid the hot topics and fast movers. I stick to companies that look likely to be around for a least a year or two and try to buy on the dips and sell on the tops. It really is boring as hell. I don't understand foo ls like you get on every board, putting others down gratuitously. I guess it's related to them not taking responsibility for their own decisions and blaming others (aliens etc) for the times things are not so good, but I don't know, maybe just not very pleasant people. But I am bored and when one of those fools targets me, I'm happy to make a voodoo doll of them and stick pins in it.

Spin, not sure I understood all of that, but I agree that in the current climate buying and holding too much might come at a high opportunity cost (ENQ already has for me). For that very reason I'm trading in and out of HBR (that was a very good decision as opposed to sitting on ENQ). I have far too much ENQ now due to continuous accumulation but am happy to start reducing it as the price rises to rationalise my positions. I'm still hopeful of coming out of this with a good profit, it's taken a lot longer than I'd hoped though.

Well as long as demand holds up in the next few months I think I'll be ok. That seems a 'not unreasonable' hope. In other ways I think we're viewing things differently. I won't necessarily hold a lot of what I have long term. I have a habit of selling up and looking for new entries either in the same or different stocks. I really do think that TUI is likely to be an opportunity for us.

SAGA seem to have done quite well, but don't they have some complications around their insurance arm? To spin off or not and timing around that?

For the shorters, that might be useful if the price is turning here. I don't know the rationale behind the shorts, but at a certain point you have to make a decision and close out for better or worse. If that were to happen, even if the Shorts are less than 2% (at least the ones we can see), then we could see a quick climb back to the 500 area. At that point, those that sold in a panic would be kicking themselves. I've been there before but over the years have tended not to get trapped in that kind of situation. Takes some nerve sometimes to hold, and some belief in the underlying business and if you accept that no-one can see into the future, the the risk to your capital is very real. This is not a game.

When I say 'ladies', I just want to clear up that I'm not aiming to patronise the wider board, just my new besties DM and OCD.

I just closed out my HBR position for a nice profit at around 259. I've been trading in and out. I suspect I might not get back in this time round and we are about to see good upside. Trouble is wider market worries make a lot of stocks volatile. GLA to all who are still in .

There you go ladies, that's how you do it!