Member Info for Starchild

My BPC holdings are for medium/long-term gains. Thus, I am not a day-trader but with one caveat: I have stated that since 8/2/21 in total transparency an intent to trade up to 10% of my holdings. In practice it has been less than 8% to-date with very few sell-buys as I do not have the time or patience to sit in front of a 2nd level console all day, nor rely on limit orders. IMO it is daft to use limit orders on a low traded share with a huge spread as the buy/sell price can miss real world by 5-10% if timed badly by even 1 minute. Based on the profits over the last 8 weeks with this hedging approach, if the SP stayed in the 0.5p-0.7p level, it will take 2-3 years to recoup my losses.

My agenda is therefore almost identical to most LTHs: to wait until the SP recovers and more (and in my case, to earn a bit on the side).

Let’s not forget, traders’ agendas are different to LTHs as shown in their posting histories. A few unethical ones attempt to manipulate based on their trading position by pumping, dumping, then pumping. The worst culprits have been banned for life.

I look forward to the news over the next few days. I do not live in fear of it whatsoever, whereas traders do, specifically any type of overhang which could mean their working capital is tied up for a few weeks. All said and done, I have posted reasoned opinions over the last few weeks why I doubt this will happen and even if I’m wrong…. I DO NOT CARE….. because I look medium/long-term.

The above should not be seen as a criticism whatsoever against day-traders. There are many respected ones on this BB.

If any LTH is thinking about trading BPC on the side, some suggestions but first seek advice on risk/rewards:

1. Get a 2nd level console and real time data. Do not rely on Google finance which does not show the value of trades, as the SP can go up and down by 5% purely based on MMs shaking the tree with a £10 trade.

2. Always check Aquis in real-time before buying or selling https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=BPC.GB.PL&share=Bahamas-Petroleum-Company-Plc

A decent (albeit basic) 2nd level console with the above real-time data from LSE is £24/month. See https://www.lse.co.uk/members/premium-services.html

I believe the SP can recover to pre-Percy 1 levels and much more for reasons I have posted in good faith over the last few weeks on https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

All IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild

PS… I accept I’m not always right and I’ve made mistakes: A PR campaign for butcher shops in Korea created a backlash, ‘A dog is not just for Christmas, it can be eaten anytime.’ So did the launch of the ‘My Little Pony’ abattoir set in France. Even though French adults eat horse meat, most of their kids shuddered at the idea and some needed counselling after dismembering their plastic ponies for delivery (in a radio controlled My Little Pony meat van) to La Boucherie.

But, IMO.... BPC isn’t one of my mistakes.

onlybpc: Excellent idea. Letter on its way to my friend Buffy, ccd to the Tribune and EWnews seeking investment to grow BPC and in partnership with Disney build a giant oil refinery (including a children friendly theme park with the theme 'oil is my friend') on an artificial island 3 miles from Nassau.

Starchild

The last time this BPC BB got so acrimonious, and nasty was during the CERP merger. At that time there were 2 camps, pro-merger and anti-merger. The anti-merger CERP LTHs felt their BoD had sold them down the river. The anti-merger BPC LTHs did not want 1b shares to dilute a potential Percy-1 success. The merger happened and due to the Percy-1 result ex-CERP assets not only can save BPC LTHs from a disaster but all LTHs will benefit if it is a success. If a Bahamas farm-in/JV happens both BoDs will have been vindicated in creating this symbiotic relationship.

I predicted last week, BPC haters would get angrier as the SP rose leading to the expected RNSs. The SP has risen from 0.45p and will probably continue to meander higher pending news. What I did not foresee is the spiteful and venomous attacks against me and others as part of their anti-BPC rhetoric absurdly by persons who admit to having no shares.

I wish to make a few points for the record:

1. I have never ever implied. ‘CERP shareholders should be grateful that we have the BPC board to manage the assets and that BPC were some sort of saviour’. This is totally untrue. CERP’s assets can substantially increase the SP over the next few months, even weeks. The BPC BoD have the cash, or access thereof to invest in some assets NOW. CERP did not partly because of the Covid/PoO collapse.

2. Any price targets I set are based on professional analysts’ opinions. When not, they are heavily caveated with researched justifications.

3. The statement BPC is producing 250bopd is simply untrue. It is producing 450-500 as stated in recent RNSs. How can this person who admits to being a troll, dare to threaten me with… I will be contacting the authorities regarding your blatantly false and misleading post…’

4. I admit to making mistakes and have never arrogantly claimed infallibility. I normally provide verifiable sources/links but could not find legacy CERP RNSs. I made the wrong assumption CERP reached £60m+ Mcap in 2018, when the actual figure was £50m+ in 2017. Yet, the same person who accused me of wilfully misleading you, almost halved BPC’s current production to 250bopd.

5. I note this person ‘detests’ me personally. It’s a very strong word which means to feel intense and often violent antipathy, stronger than ‘hate’. And sadden 10 fellow LSE members agreed with h/er. I am baffled what makes certain persons hate me, and more importantly BPC so much to the point they need to bombard this BB with intense negativity. Did they lose their life savings, a few thousand pounds, in CERP and it affected them to the point they now seek revenge whenever the SP ticks up? I don’t know.

6. I disagree we should be valued at the CERP merger price of £25m. I have provided reasoning, in good faith and on several occasions, why it should be higher. But that’s just my opinion.

I wish everyone well. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Lost in all this tripe is a key point: CERP manage £50m+ Market cap in 2017. BPC's today is substantially less despite

(a) BPC being more advanced than CERP with 2 fully budgeted (c$4m) spuds imminent,

(b) the punitive special petroleum tax is now @$75 PoO vs $50 then,

(c ) BPC is sitting on $85m in tax credits which is more than in 2018 and

(d) BPC has potential Bahamas monetization, whereas CERP did not.

I rest my case, but it's up to you to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. I've wasted 2 hours of bandwidth dealing with libelous comments based on nip picking rather than essence of meaning.

GLA

Starchild

Arsenalles: check Aquis https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=BPC.GB.PL&share=Bahamas-Petroleum-Company-Plc

some trades are done outside the LSE via same market makers.

Starchild

I found the source in the accounts at companies house.

Round figures: SP peak 8p Oct 2017; 31/12/17 shares on issue 650m. 650 x 8p = 52m market cap.

All this fuss to attempt to discredit my overall research and my opinions!!!!!!

Starchild

Rossannan thank you. And Sept 2019?

1. prove the 650m at the time

2. how many shares were on issue in Sept 2019, when SP hit 5.10p?

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/bully1985/ accused me of a serious allegation …… ‘either [being] an idiot or manipulative Starfish. There has been masses upon masses of dilution in CERP since March 2018. You very well know this. The market cap of CERP was never £60-70million when the share price was 5.8p as there were a lot less shares in issue. I will be contacting the authorities regarding your blatantly false and misleading post unless you post a redaction……’

1. Refer to https://wallmine.com/lse/cerp, table on the right. 6 months previously on week beginning 9 Oct 2017, CERP reached a 7.98p high and closed 7.18. I accept there has been some dilution since October 2016 and March 2017, the exact amount unknown unless historical RNSs were available, however I totally stand by my key points: CERP reached substantial hights probably +/-£60m in 2016/2017 and the BPC SP is seriously undervalued as today, IMO BPC is further advanced than CERP.

2. Also note, a post that followed Bully1985 asked him if he has any shares was deleted. I assume he reported it. He does not have shares and gives no reason why he posts here. When he was asked the same question on 8/4, at 23:49 he replied ‘Nope’.

3. Note his post 10/4 13:17 on GGP ………..Any placement isn’t going to be hugely discounted and who knows where the SP will be if/when an equity raise is done. Keep some powder dry but I always find for good companies with a clear use for new funds, the share price rockets upon a week of the placing shares being allocated…….. ‘

Such a personal attacks against others crosses the boundary of a heated dispute and decency, added to witch ‘Starfish’ has obscene connotations which breaks the Ts and Cs of this normally decent forum.

I did not ask for his post to be deleted, but it now has. As several people read his original, I have the right to a rebuttal. Hence the above.

Starchild

This is a very rare 2nd detailed post on the same day from me. Firstly, the background……

Refer to the Sunday 11/4 12:26 post by https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rossannan/ . He referred to h/er attempted ‘stunt’ from 23/3/2018 which I will quote….. ‘Gentlemen and Ladies: Your positive reaction to my absence from the BB has given me an idea. Would you like the chance to make it a bit more long term? If you would, just follow this link: https://mydonate.bt.com/fundraisers/rossannan [....my interpretation: ‘give money to a charity of my choice and I won’t post negativity for a while’ ]

Rhetorical questions:

1. If someone appeared in court for robbing a bank, would a valid excuse be….. ‘but your honour, here is the undeniable proof all the money would have been given to Save the Children in Africa.’

2. If someone appeared in court for shoplifting £100 worth of toys, would a valid excuse be…. ‘dear magistrates, here is the proof the toys I took from Tesco would have been given to a local charity specialising in Christmas presents for children in need.’

3. If someone offered to stop posting negativity on a share discussion forum in return for payment to charity, is that not the equivalent of a SHAKE-DOWN albeit by a self-professed Robin Hood? Is it not the equivalent of saying,…. ‘give me money for charity, and I’ll stop attempting to influence negative sentiment which could result in your shares losing value?’

4. Hypothetically, if I invited 10 posters to PM me so we could concoct a plan to simultaneously bombard negativity on 10 LSE BBs for a week and then propose a shake-down for a noble charitable cause…. What would likely happen?

I allege persons who attempt such stunts, have lost their moral compasses and risk prosecution. I am surprised CERP did not formally complain to the authorities.

Why the SP should be at 1.25p+:

Note the time stamp of the 2018 post
rossannan
Posted in: CERP 23 Mar 2018 10:20
Posts: 6,706
Price: 5.80

Note the CERP share price at the time, 5.80p (c£60m market cap) and note today BPC’s Mcap is half that, despite (a) BPC being more advanced than CERP with 2 fully budgeted (c$4m) spuds imminent, (b) the punitive special petroleum tax is now @$75 PoO vs $50 then, (c ) BPC is sitting on $85m in tax credits which is more than in 2018 and (d) BPC has potential Bahamas monetization, whereas CERP did not.

Conclusions: IMO, based on previous patterns, the BPC SP is seriously undervalued today and should be in the 1.25p-1.40p range (£60m -£70m Mcap) until the S2 spud result in June. Which is why IMO it is a STRONG BUY. I didn’t make this up.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

From this Friday 16 April or soon after, news is expected on various fronts:

1. How much, if any, is owed for the £3.75m LOL 188m shares Put option and how it will be paid.

2. Whether BPC and the Australian investor will exercise the additional £3.5m loan option, repayable by 31/12/23.

3. If agreement has been reached on the disputed $7m Percy-1 costs with suppliers, mainly Stena, and if so, the payment schedule over the coming months (or year)

4. Short-term funding / cashflow reconciliation.

5. Confirmation the Saffron 2 spud will happen middle of May or very soon after.

6. An update on Suriname/EWS preparation for the summer.

7. An update on the court process and whether the judge has accepted the environmentalists’ excuses for unilaterally extending the $200k costs order until 15/4, without seeking permission from the judge.

8. Technical information of the Percy-1 autopsy.

9. And possibly…. Bahamas farm-in/JV news.

Opinions

As an LTH with more shares than most (10s of millions), my BPC ROI investment objective and strategy is based on weeks and months, not days. As such I have NO CONCERN whatsoever on the upcoming news-flow and very much looking forward to it. However, I accept and respect that day-traders do not share the same strategy.

In the meantime, trolls/BPC haters some possibly acting for special interest groups, allegedly have NO strategy other than to hurt BPC, its share price and its shareholders. They saturate this BB by posting negativity and generally appear when the SP has increased or is expected to rise, as is the case now.

I believe the SP will meander its way to 0.8p this week based on expected news and potentially increase substantially more leading to, and during the Saffron spud. Refer to my previous posts written in good faith for detailed deep-dive research and opinions for the how’s and whys: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ . Caveat: I know BPC inside-out, but I do not profess to guru status nor being a clairvoyant.

Simply put, if you agree with my recent analysis, BUY. If you believe despite two already funded and COMMITTED spuds (Trinidad in May and Suriname in the summer), there’s a long-term funding issue or the spud results will be inconclusive, don’t buy.

Above is IMHO, so always DYOR. GLA

Starchild
(This post is slightly edited from Sunday and reposted. The whole message thread was deleted for reasons I am not aware of)

LGO-fan: point taken, but there's a difference: we're not dealing with the ex-CERP BoD that purportedly historically failed, partly based on bad luck re PoO collapse and Covid. ..... We're dealing with the BPC BoD that M&A'd an asset (£25m) which can potentially generate a huge ROI (£300m+) if all the ducks line up in a row............... CERP. So I don't think it's pie in the sky. BPC has done it before successfully. CERP did not.

And all this excludes a potential Bahamas farm-in, which may trigger more M&As in the pipeline.

GL

Starchild

Bohemia: I respectfully disagree with your analysis, as you imply BPC is currently insolvent. If this is the case, why would BPC be bothering to acquire new Trinidad assets (point 8 below) now and actually doing due diligence to do so? Is it not like owning a house with no hope of paying the mortgage, and trying to buy a plot of land adjoining the property to grow strawberries with an ROI in 4 years from the local farmer’s market? That would be dumb.

BPC has stated it has MORE than enough funding sources to meet its objectives. You are stating BPC’s very recent financial assertions are untrue and basing your theory on old RNSs re Percy-1 budgets vs spending.

Please refer to the recent RNS presentation page 9 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf

All figures below are approximate based on the RNS and $60/b PoO,

1. BPC is making enough revenue to cover all opex and is making c$3m a year free cash pre capex and one-off charges.

2. It has the $1m capex for incremental production programs. Success = 100 bopd = $1m/year free cash (ROI 1 year)

3. It has the $2-3m capex to spud Saffron 2 Trinidad 17 May. Success = 200-300 bopd = $2-3m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

4. It has the $2-3m capex to spud Suriname and do an EWT in July. Success = 500+ bopd = $2.5m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

5. It hotly disputes $7m in billing for Percy-1, which could in theory be partly used for point 4 if point 3 fails.

BPC does NOT have the capex, unless there is a Farm-in involving a refund of some Bahamas Percy-1 back-costs (or funding from the Australians) for ….

6. The Saffrons 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 full-field development (2-3 years) 4,000+ bopd $25m+/year free cash per year. Capex needed <$60m. (ROI 2.5 years). It can use RBL/infrastructure lending in a success case per Saffron based on a CPR and fully FUND THE NEXT SAFFRON ONE BY ONE.

7. The infill drilling programs 200 - 400 bopd $3m - $4.5m/year free cash. Capex needed <$6m. (ROI 2 years)

8. New Biz development opportunities 100+ bopd $0.7m/year free cash. Capex needed $2.5m - $3m. (ROI 4 years). Can be partly financed with RBL now.

Bohemia, we appreciate your honesty in recently stating you are shorting BPC. I believe this is a mistake but I could be wrong. It’s not for me to provide you with investment advice. BPC has stated it has MORE than enough funding sources to meet its objectives and even looking to acquire other assets.

BPC is NOT broke. The SP is seriously undervalued. Refer to my previous posts.

All IMHO. DYOR. Have a nice Saturday. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Yesterday, a confirmed non-shareholder who accepted being labelled a troll, accused me of having a superiority complex. I disagree.

If the 7 key metrics to define male gorgeousness were tall, dark, handsome, intelligent, virile, wealthy and funny….. I’d publicly give myself a 2 and a quarter out of 7 in this self-assessment, if permitted to count fractions. However, if I regularly stated in public or machine gun posted BBs that my wife’s metrics ere 0/7 and closer to minus 2 due to extreme ugliness and stupidity (which is certainly NOT the case), she’d get somewhat miffed, so would our family and friends and the readers of those posts.

Why do people machine gun post negativity about a share they don’t own? Is it out of compassion as a public service akin to spending free time volunteering to feed the poor in a soup kitchen? If so, we should start a campaign to get those Captain Tom wannabes MBEs. Or is it for selfish manipulative gain to benefit their trading positions or to assist special interest groups? To reiterate, I’m not referring to the occasional negative posts out of frustration from REAL shareholders when the SP has plummeted. Neither am I criticizing those who transparently state they have a short position in play unless machine gun posting.

Unless they justify their presence (I don’t count ‘it is my right’ as a valid one), or their motives, I take the default view they are either amateur traders resorting to manipulating sentiment to make a quick buck, or simply trolls who have nothing better to do.

Funding

When PRD undertook a placing last month, it was oversubscribed and embraced by most folks on its BB. In fact the SP rose despite the dilutive effect. Many who fear dilutive funding are IMO amateur short-term traders. They don’t want to see the little capital they have tied up for a few weeks with an overhang. Pro-traders have plenty of capital and deal with many companies. To them it’s a temporary blip.

BPC has transparently informed us of its funding path. My expectation is it will subscribe to c£3.5m from the Australians in the form of a loan repayable by 31/12/23. There will be NO overhang until the loan is repaid in cash and shares. As a LTH with tens of millions of shares, I will welcome it for BPC’s growth. Furthermore, an RNS in a week or so will end uncertainty re Stena and the LOL deal, so we can move on.

IMHO the SP will meander its way towards 0.8p next week and reach the 1p+ range during the S2 spud. If this proves to be a success, the SP will soar leading to the Suriname spud, even without a farm-in.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: No. I’m not a retired teacher or civil servant nor have a superiority complex. I’m a semi-retired owner of several companies internationally, humble, gorgeous, exceedingly good looking with an IQ off the charts, and VERY virile because I practice alone a lot.

Based on his recent very anti-BPC posts, why did Bully1985, write the following TXP post 3 days ago 5/4? .....

'......On the subject of tax credits....I believe BPC have around £35million in tax credits in the Trinidad alongside 250bopd and a exploration asset with a NPV10 of around $90million. Currently trading at around £23million. Wouldn’t be the worst idea to buy it for those tax credits and small production and maybe saffron prospect and just flog anything else.....'

He got his figures totally wrong, however I do believe for the first time in my life, I agree with his post!

How odd.

Starchild

Bohemia: respectfully you are wrong.

At $60 PoO: 500/b day = $40/b gross x 500 x 360 = $7.2m / year. Minus $4m G&A. Then deduct taxes if any (BPC sitting on large credit). in round figures = $3m / year bla bla profit

GL
Starchild

IBL: not quite. Operating profit means different things depending on the context being used in the UK and USA. It also can be interpreted differently in oil production. For example at $60 PoO, BPC makes c$40 gross operating profit per BoO. However, to avoid further discussion, I prefer to use your term from now on if it makes everyone happier. So thank you.

I wish folks wouldn't read my posts, which I write in good faith, nip picking words........as if it's an RNS

Starchild

SvS: If my posts strain your eyebrows I suggest you block me.

Positive cashflow = net profit before OTCs and capex.

BPC is currently making $3m net profit / $250k per month excluding OTCs such as Bahamas license fees and court costs. Capex such as $4m for S2 and Suriname is also excluded. It is up to BPC when to spend capex.

I use the term net profit for simplicity with the caveat, again, it is pre-capex and OTCs. Obviously, it does not refer to PBT (profit before tax) as shown in annual y/e accounts.... which appears to be what you are referring to.

Starchild

It was a good day yesterday for all, other than traders with open shorts, who were left exposed.

These amateur traders who post here and the anti-BPC crowd will now machine gun post their anger and even personally attack real shareholders. I use the word ‘amateur’ because successful pro-traders spend hours researching rather than machine gun posting on BBs with the hope they can seduce others, in case they got their trading positions wrong.

A successful pro-trader with a million+ in trading liquidity doesn’t need to make a few crumbs by manipulating BBs. (Caveat: this is not a criticism against real shareholders who occasionally post negative remarks out of frustration, nor traders who openly admit shorting BPC and have the manners not to machine gun post.

The anti-BPC crowd’s recent negative messages revolve around the chanting of certain words: ‘placement,’ ‘funding’, ‘overhang’ and ‘liquidity.’

My analysis

There’s ONE word in a recent RNS that leads me to the conclusion BPC will not need an imminent large placing…….. ‘ work is ongoing to agree the final amounts remaining to be paid with contractors and suppliers arising from the additional unbudgeted costs (including some disputed amounts and some refunds owing), and to finalise a schedule for those payments over the coming MONTHS…..’ Source https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/high-impact-exploration-update/14911209

1. A disputed invoice(s) for valid reasons does not need to be paid until resolved.

2. Resolution is by negotiation, mediation, or the courts.

3. I believe BPC will negotiate the $7m, agree to pay some on condition Stena etc, agree to a payment schedule that will take many MONTHS.

4. This means BPC has an additional $7m in cashflow today.

5. If Trinidad OR Suriname is a success, OR there’s a farm-in…. BPC will have access to plenty of cash. If not, Trinidad’s incremental production and infill programs currently being done will generate additional cash to the current c$250,000 net monthly profit.

If the above assumptions are correct, some of the $7m will be used to pay LOL (if any), or the Australian investor will agree to a small advance. To date they have never had shares issued, therefore it will not create an overhang unless this changes. The funding bar has been set at 0.8p.

Bottom line: IMHO Strong buy but DYOR. Why? Between today and April 16, it is possible the SP will meander its way up and down to the 0.8p level in anticipation of the spud. Then, depending on the RNS on or soon after 16/4, potentially a lot higher.

GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: It is not worth engaging with amateur traders that de-ramp, other than in exceptional circumstances. It encourages them to machine gun post.

I note the anti-BPC crowd are out in full with a few new (re-appeared) ones, feeding off each other.

At least a couple of regulars are honest which should be respected. One wants the price to decrease to 0.3p (‘after the next placement’) for buy-in, and the other admits to having a live CFD shorting the share.

Why do the others spend time posting here if they own NO BPC shares?

Out of compassion to fellow human beings?

Why do they hate BPC so much?

As the SP increases leading to the April spud announcement and the result in May, even more anti-BPC folks will join in. Great, let’s have a party.

It is not worth engaging with them direct, other than in exceptional circumstances.

GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/