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Tuckman: I accept what you state, totally agree many people are holding awaiting news. What is baffling is why the SP has been stuck at below 0.6p, and despite 2 decent RNSs, gone below 0.5p.

BTW, LSE auto censored a word in my last post. Part of the surname of a BPC senior manager. Unfortunately it is a word that describes a male chicken.

GL

Starchild

Excellent historical analysis Tiburn.

Below is a list of expected news ‘soon’

1. Court case Mon/Tue. Assuming the environmentalists have scraped together $200k costs security, the local media will likely provide news before BPC does.

2. Court decision. It is unlikely to be a summary judgement, although I am hoping the judge will appear on Zoom wearing a black hanky on her head in contempt at her ruined XMAS break and to indicate her ruling. So we may have to wait a couple of weeks or so.

3. Dependant on point 2, whether BPC plans to issue a separate claim for damages against the environmentalists and their backers. They attempted to destroy BPC, publicly intimidated suppliers, spun allegedly false rumours and caused the SP to fester for weeks which meant funding was at 2p instead of 2.5-3p.

4. Percy-1 autopsy results. The latest RNS stated the drill data is DAYS away from being assimilated with pre-drill data. The biproduct being, the farm-out process can go to the next level.

5. Re point 4, ’The Bahamian people will know by April if they are an oil rich nation.’

6. Farm-out/JV news.

7. Funding news including cash reserves net of liabilities. Stena final bill and what cash is available for Capex. 16 April is a key trigger date in RNSs for LOL reconciliation and other matters.

8. Whether, following due dili, BPC will acquire new assets in Trinidad and how they will be paid for. Note, Randolph His**** (BPC’s ‘New Business’ Director) has an excellent track record (source https://www.bpcplc.com/about/senior-management/ )

9. Ex-CERP asset developments generally, including news leading to Trinidad and Suriname spuds.

10. Whether Exxon and Shell will fight in a bidding war to buy BPC at 15p a share. (That was a joke. For now)

BPC has a track record of sudden unexpected RNSs: (a) The CERP merger. (b) The 2018 announcement of a Super-Major in the data room resulting in a surge to the SP from 1p to 3p to a 6p peak (c600%). (c) The Stena deal announced on 1/6/20 resulting in another surge to the SP from 1.1p to 3.7p (c350%).

I fully accept there are many folks waiting on the side-lines for news, and due to low volumes most of the kids in town are traders playing with each other.

The June CERP offer price was £25.1m. It is true its Mcap was £17m when the merger took place in August, however that was in the middle of Covid-19’s PoO collapse. I consider today’s £22m Mcap shows BPC is seriously over-sold. Based on its historical prices, I believe had CERP not merged, its Mcap would be £50m+ (1p+ today) considering we are weeks away from a major spud. And for the long list of reasons I posted on 9/3 05:25am.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Bohemia: IMO you posted your calculations in good faith which I reviewed. The trouble is we don’t have the figures (yet) of what was actually paid (vs. budgeted 4q 2020) and for what, other than $7m is disputed.

OnlyBPC: I thank you for your complement.

Bohemia: Please refer to my deep dive on 6 March 06:21 re LO. I think the worst case scenario is £564k in the unlikely event they were holding all their 188m Put shares on 8/2/21. Even then, BPC has a right to object to paying anything due to their antics. I haven't got time to study your figures, but will look at this evening. I can't see how or why BPC would be looking at assets acquisitions if things were so bad financially.

Starchild

Bohemia: Unless I have misunderstood your point, BPC does not need all the funding now. Some is contingent on the $2m Trinidad spud being a success and/or the $2m Suriname one shortly after. Furthermore, funding will be an irrelevance if a JV happens and cash is paid towards $140m Percy-1 back costs.

If either spud is a success, a CPR will quickly be done certifying 2P reserves which BPC can borrow against using RBL. Separately or in parallel a whole new avenue of infrastructure borrowing can be accessed. Banks are delighted to lend at reasonable interest rates to exploit proven reserves of oil or gold.

GL

(all IMHO)

Starchild

Proactive eloquently summarized yesterday’s RNS with the headline ’…management advancing new farm-out deal..’ Source https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/944747/bahamas-petroleum-to-stick-with-offshore-exploration-management-advancing-new-farm-out-deal-944747.html

Malcy was very upbeat in his observations: …. ‘BPC has covered its position here on the high-impact wells in the Bahamas and Uruguay, there is also much potential in the company in Trinidad where the onshore progress is already being made and where in the SW Peninsula there is much upside. In addition the company has been exploring its possibilities in Suriname which carries significant potential…’ Source https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/03/oil-price-bpc-echo-and-finally/

Key RNS points and opinions

1. BPC intends to renew its 4 southern licenses for a new 3 year term. BPC or its farmee have 3 years to drill Percy-2. July 2024, NOT Y/E 2022.

2. Uru-1 is in the slow cooker for a possible future gourmet meal. 1.34Bboe estimate is on par with Percy-1.

3. BPC has $13m with short-term committed capex and some bills including disputed ones outstanding. c$4m for the Trinidad and Suriname spuds; c$1m B-Gov license renewals. [Note: @$60 PoO, BPC is making c$250k NET monthly]

4. Percy-1 went $10m over-budget and $7m is disputed. [If the IceMax cook slipped on a banana and pots/pans fell into the rig resulting in drill delays, liability rests with the companies that supplied the deck cleaner, the chap who left it there or the cook…..NOT BPC’s.]

5. $7m is in dispute and BPC could use most of the cash until the issue is resolved in a few months. This gives time for a farm-in; and/or a T+T or Suriname successful spud can provide RBL on 2P reserves. The RNS stated.. ‘….finalise a schedule for [agreed] payments over the coming MONTHS…’ [ie, kick the payment can down the road, perhaps leveraging Percy-2 as a future Stena opportunity.]

6. BPC needs $25 - $40m capex for 2021/2. ..’ [BPC] expects to MORE than cover the difference from various potential funding sources….’

7. Key point: ‘….[BPC] is in the FINAL stages of integrating the well information with its historical dataset and expects to COMMENCE THE FARMOUT PROCESS upon completing this work in the coming DAYS….’ [GNEISS will have a complete data room in a few DAYS. Until now while knocking on doors, it only had a partial one, if any.]

In parallel to all the above, BPC is doing due dili to acquire new assets in T+T. This alone shows BPC is going places and is far from broke as some BPC shorters and haters attempt to imply.

IMHO Strong buy (surge potential in days/weeks), but DYOR. Sell, buy, hold, it’s up to you and GL.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Jono44: Thanks for confirming you do not represent special interest groups. What about PRD? Respectfully, why do you post here when you have openly stated you have NO shares?

A company that is broke does NOT go on a spree to acquire local Trinidad assets.

A company that is broke does not waste time and money doing due diligence for the above unless they mean business. (RNS last week)

Today's RNS has made it clear it has more than enough access to funding until well into 2022. It will do a deal with Stena et al to schedule the final agreed bill(s) and has therefore leveraged free cashflow without a mega loan. By which time there are several permutations to harvest revenue or do a non diluting RBL.

Yes, there have been some who are selling at 0.4p in another knee jerk reaction. Until yesterday the lowest anyone has been able to buy in the last few years was at +/- 0.49p (forget inter MM trades). Whoever is selling today is clearly doing so at a loss, possibly traders who took their capital to pastures new.

The original plan was to drill 30-45 days. BPC stopped drilling because in the 70% drill undertaken, commercial quantities had not been found and it was not worth doing a geological exercise for the remaining depths. It wasn't a half job done.

No I don't want the BoD fired.

£20m Markt cap is ridiculous based on above, considering almost half ($13m) is pure cash in the bank minus mutually agreed or legally due invoices.

For goodness sake, there's people posting today (some with conflicts of interest) creating all sorts of fear practically alleging BPC is about to be declared bankrupt unless it issues a qudrillion shares at 0.000001p . Ridiculous.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

napthman1: good summary!

There's people who posted this morning...
One of them openly admits to having no BPC shares and refuses to answer the question whether he is acting for special interest groups. Another openly admits to waiting until the SP drops to 0.2p-0.4p (he has changed his mind a few times) before buying in.

There are others who do not want BPC to succeed and post here because they probably have shorted the share or have a live CFD/derivate in play to do so.

I think today's RNS was informative with lots in the SHORT-TERM pipeline, added to which, was the recent exciting ex-CERP RNS.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

There are people posting today I have not seen before, coincidently (?) spouting negativity.

1. A key point in the RNS is cashflow: $13m in the bank, most Percy-1 bills paid before and during drilling. Some bills to pay which are DISPUTED and will not be paid for several months until an amicable settlement. this means we have cash-flow for a lot of ex-CERP now, which will yield results quickly.

2. No need for loan if farm-out is done or RBL via near-term Trinidad developments in May/June.

3. Bahamas licenses will be extended, which means 3 years added (for next drill or drop)...NOT until end of 2022!!!!

i will do a deep dive later

IMO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

It is NOT a terrible RNS! The Percy-1 drill went over budget, some invoices disputed and will not have to be paid for a few months. Good news re farm-out....

1. '.....since announcing the results of the well the Company has had a number of discussions with industry counterparties in relation to a potential farm-out of the licences, and the Company is now working to formalise and launch an entirely new farm-out process via Gneiss Energy. The farm-out will seek to introduce a funding and operating partner for the next stage of exploration activity in The Bahamas. The Company is in the final stages of integrating the well information with its historical dataset and expects to commence the farmout process upon completing this work in the coming days. ...'

2. We don't need 10s of millions now

3. Uruguay prospect huge. 1.359B on par with Percy-1. And its only in 80m of water... you can practically snorkel!

IMO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Lancygeo: Very good find. Here's the full article/press release https://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/MEDIA-RELEASE-CARBON-CAPTURE-AND-CARBON-DIOXIDE-CO2-ENHANCED-OIL-RECOVERY-STEERING-COMMITTEE.pdf

To capture CO2 is good for the world. To store it locally and sell it to companies such as BPC means wells that have or are soon passing their sell-by date, will have a longer life span. It also avoids having to go through PRD in future. When PRD tried to cheekily buy some CERP assets at a discount last year, bang in the middle of the merger, they implied a local monopoly for CO2 acquisition. I hope this new initiative will benefit BPC, while helping to reduce CO2 generally.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

A PS to my previous post on costs.

Let's not forget, BPC costs until the last hearing was estimated at $400k. If the hearing went ahead on Monday and Tuesday next week it will be additional preparation work and court time for BPC's rather expensive QC British Barrister. The fact the security is $200k, does not mean the environmentalists will not be on the hook for +/- $600k.

Starchild

Tiburn: I agree about the radio silence, with a couple of additional points:

By keeping radio silence the environmentalists may take the default position there's no oil, and be tempted not to procced with the case to save their legal costs and a costs award against them. (Not that a Judicial Review will greatly affect BPC as it's based on whether the gov dotted all the I's and crossed all the t's giving EA in February 2020. The JV has nothing to do with whether the gov 12 years ago should have given BPC the right to drill and exploit a possible find;; currently enshrined in a watertight commercial contract. )

It also gives more time for interested parties to do due diligence in GNEISS' data room. Even if a deal was already done, I doubt it would be announced until after the court case next week and the judgement.

I think there's more to the last RNS than was disclosed relating to acquiring assets. Perhaps RBL will be used or shares at a rate of 0.8p, however it is possible the BoD already knows a JV is in the bag.

Starchild

NellyB: thanks for reminding everyone re the ex-CERP assets’ mega potential. I agree the BoD has the skills to get the job done. One of the USPs in the merger was BPC has specialist engineering know-how to improve production, and exploration experience to find more oil.

For newbies it is worth spending 30 mins reading 3 key RNSs since November.

3/11/20 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/operational-update-trinidad-tobago-and-suriname/14741377

1/12/20 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/trinidad-and-tobago-and-suriname-strategy-update/14774951

18/3/21 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/trinidad-and-tobago-and-suriname-update/14904309

At $60/b PoO, and $20/b extraction costs BPC is making an annual profit (including all Opex and taxes but excluding Capex) of $3m/per year even at the miniscule c500b/day production. The aim is 2500b/day by year end and $25m/year net profit. I like the bit in the 3/11 RNS that states the 200m barrels potential in BPC’s South West Peninsula (Trinidad) acreage.

I don’t want to give the impression I have a photo of Simon Potter (BPC’s CEO) on a 24x7 candle lit shrine. However, he successfully grew AIM/ASX listed Hardman which was sold to Tullow and then joined Arrow Energy as CEO, which was sold to Shell and PetroChina. (source https://www.bpcplc.com/about/who-we-are/board/ )

I continue to have full confidence in the BoD and management team, although I accept not everyone agrees with me. In fact the BoD have full confidence in themselves and the company. According to the 18/3 RNS above, they are on an asset acquisition spree and even undertaking due dili. To use a maxed-out credit card to buy designer clothes is dumb. To use it to acquire assets to pay off the card and the mortgage in 2-3 years is smart.

I fully share in the disappointment of Percy-1 being non-commercial and at the current record low SP there are folks sitting on 80% losses. I’ve been a LTH since 2014 and my family and I own more shares than probably most commentators on this BB (and all the BoD excluding Simon). Today this is an embarrassment rather than a boast, but by year end I believe it will NOT be, even if only half ex-CERP’s assets come up trumps. Perhaps even within weeks, if the recently discovered working petroleum system in BPC’s Bahamas acreage can be monetized (farm-in/JV) with the assistance of GNEISS. So, I’m far from being in a state of despair. There’s very little scope for the SP to fall further long-term, yet huge potential for a surge in the short-term. AIM is quick to punish and quick to reward its listed penny share companies.

End of pep-talk to the team.

If you are a newbie with constructive questions,… unless posing as one on behalf of anti-BPC special interest groups to manipulate sentiment ….ask and we will try to answer.
.
IMO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Hi CERP-84

Firstly you, in4cedros and LGO-fan (if I recall) were the main posters that helped my understand CERP during and after merger so I thank you.

The CERP y/e 2019 accounts stated this 2m figure and that production had diminished from 1000/day in 2018 to around 420-450/day.

I agree BPC wasn't exactly a knight on a white horse. In fact without ex-CERP assets, BPC would be doomed today and be knocking on doors cap in hand for a farm-in. So, it's the other way around. I accept the notion that the CERP BoD could have accessed capital with a massive placement however at the time Schroder's were selling and there was the Lind overhang.
Added to this was PoO collapse and Covid-19 which meant revenue could not cover $3m/year Opex, let alone Capex.

BPC leveraged the Percy-1 potential and having access to cash to consummate the deal. Including the development of ex-CERP assets with or without Percy-1 being commercial. Which is where we are now.

Off to e-meetings, but will keep an eye out later today

GL

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Tuckman: I do not disagree with your concerns, which are rational compared to those that say 0.2-0.4p is on the cards. However there's a difference with the Australian investor who has given 2 chunks of money in December and February to Trafalgar, Lind and LOL. To-date, it has not asked for shares yet and using the share rights as security. The RNS actually lays out the interest payment terms until 2023.

I hope you don't consider me happy clappy because I believe the SP is severely undervalued for reasons researched and listed in my previous posts.

GL
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Willec: I tend to ignore auctions as they are manipulative (but legally so). In fact someone wants to sell 1.5m at 2p this morning!

It's also easy to do an opening bid agreed for only £10 if one's brother-in-law is on the other side of the auction.

GL

Starchild

On Friday there was a large 25.5m sell @0.5p and I estimate (from LSE/Aquis stats) there’s a small overhang of 9m shares, unless the MMs were fulfilling a large buy order behind the scenes in which case there is none. If so, the MMs will want to dispose of these shares at > 0.5p. I consider this a good buying opportunity and will put my money where my keyboard is. The lowest anyone has ever bought BPC was just under 0.5p and this was before last week’s excellent RNS.

There is NO logical explanation to the current BPC SP/Mcap. Why?

1. BPC has more cash today vs CERP. I estimate $6m after paying all its Percy-1 bills, pre-recent Capex. CERP had $2m on 31/12/19 before facing Covid-19 and PoO collapse.

2. BPC has access to additional funds to develop ex-CERP assets. CERP did not.

3. BPC is on track to spud/test key ex-CERP assets within weeks. CERP did not.

4. The PRD CO2 testing, which BPC can benefit from, was successful.

5. The PRD SP has quadrupled in the last few weeks. Some, but not most of this, can be attributed to the above.

6. BPC has increased to 500b/day in Dec 2020 and expects further increases. CERP had no spare cash to maintain wells or invest. Productivity dropped from 1000+ b/day in 2018 to c450b/day in 2020.

7. The Gov’s 50% special petroleum tax applied for $50+/b. Since 1/1/21 it is $75/b WTI. Very good for BPC. Furthermore, it is sitting on an c$40m in T+T tax offsets, which is more than its Mcap today.

8. Analysts believe PoO could hit $100/b in 2022/23.

9. A recent CPR increased BPC’s 2P reserves by 30%. 1.3mboe x $40/b NPV10 is more than BPC’s market cap today.

10. BPC believes it will reach 2500b/day production by year end. To-date the BPC BoD has met all goals under its control.

11. If BPC reaches 2500b/day, net profit 2022 onwards (excluding Capex and c$4m Opex) @$60 PoO can be > c$25m/year. Pure cash.

12. The excellent RNS last week. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BPC/trinidad-and-tobago-and-suriname-update/14904309

13. In Sep 2019, CERP hit £50m market cap (5p x 1B shares) without the above, even @ $55 PoO and while Lind/Schroders were share-dumping. (Charts https://wallmine.com/lse/cerp and https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil )

14. Today, BPC has something CERP did not: potential monetisation/farm-in of Bahamas acreage. Despite no commercial find as yet there is a WPS.

So, only based on the historic CERP SP and only for points 1-13 above, IMO BPC’s current Mcap/SP is seriously undervalued. It should be at least 1p+ (£50m+ Market cap) purely on ex-CERP assets and more due to CERP work in progress. And this excludes Bahamas with point 14 potentially being a game changer. To state an imminent placing will be at 0.2-0.4p, when the funding bar is at 0.8p, is ridiculous and allegedly manipulative for a lower entry price.

IMHO. DYOR. Buy, hold, sell it's up to you. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Last week INEOS bought Hess Corp's Danish oilfields for $150m (Source https://www.reuters.com/article/hess-ma-ineos-group-hldg/update-1-ineos-buys-hess-corps-danish-oilfields-for-150-mln-idUSL1N2LG1A5 )

Observations

1. Of interest in the INEOS deal, was the $150m asset purchase to produce 6,000boe / day.

2. Compared to Trinidad onshore ($20/b), it costs double to extract from the North Sea.

3. BPC’s stated goal is 2,500b/day in 9 months, and 4,000b/day 2022. BPC’s Trinidad/Suriname assets are therefore worth substantial sums in future.

4. Denmark and The Bahamas are similar because no more acreage will be licensed other than to honour existing contracts. In Denmark’s case, until 2050.

5. IMO, BPC’s Bahamas acreage will be even more attractive to a major for a farm-in, now that a WPS has been discovered. Why? If substantial reserves exist in this frontier province, BPC holds the monopoly.

Off-topic

6. UK based folks may find it prudent to get tax advice before April 5. For example to sell/buy BPC to offset/defer CGT or move BPC to an ISA. Most providers allow this for a small fee without going through the MM spread. Don’t be surprised to see unusual large ‘twin’ trades slightly above and below mid-price.

7. Jono44: I apologise if you felt my last post was in any way ‘bullying’. Golly, I think you’re the only person that has ever blocked me. We can’t force you to answer the questions, yet on the last 2 occasions I have, you got my posts quickly auto-deleted so no one would read them. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the only way this can happen on LSE is if someone presses the report button and then selects the ‘personal information disclosed’ option.

You post anti-BPC comments in an unusual way which stands-out. Anyway, the PS below repeats the original very polite questions should you choose to answer them. I note https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/irenekrapp/ appears to be aligned with you. Re her sarcastic PM comment….. I do not know PM Johnson, it was a previous UK PM, but I do know a number of Ministers, diplomats and heads of political parties internationally. I’m not a VIP but know many VIPs. Sarcastic comments awaited.

BPC’s £25m Mcap is the same as the 2020 CERP merger offer. Refer to my post 9/3 05:25 justifying why BPC is worth more than 1p (£50m Mcap) with or without news, purely based on ex-CERP assets let alone the c$40m net T+T tax allowance and Bahamas monetization. (Re the recently discovered WPS)

SP has surge potential with little room for long-term collapse.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

[PS, from my 19/3 post which got deleted]…Jono44: You post politely and respectfully although always negatively and admit to having no BPC shares. I answered your questions why I post on this BB, so please answer mine: (a) Which special interest groups do you represent? (b) Are you assisting PRD directly or indirectly in its BPC objectives

PS to my post this morning….

Eggchaser: Valid points in your posts this morning

Personally I refuse to be intimidated by trolls, sentiment manipulators or those that have hidden agendas and machine gun post on this BB. I rarely engage with them direct.

Why the BPC price drop yesterday? Erm, let me think…….One person or entity selling 25.5m shares eod usually does the trick.

Why did they sell? I don’t know as I’m not a mind reader.

Here’s some guesses, in order of probability:

1. The person doesn’t want to invest in the company anymore or de-risked a substantial BPC holding in full or in part.

2. S/he needed the cash.

3. It is a large UK shareholder who took the capital loss as a tax deduction prior to April 5. (The respected forum member Bigmj planned to do this for some of his BPC holdings)

4. It is game playing by a trader who took a CFD derivative short. The bet, ‘despite an excellent RNS, the SP will end lower by eod friday’

5. SP manipulation by 3rd parties who want BPC to have a low SP.

6. H/er spouse plans to run off with the cash next week.

7. Inside information by a BPC shareholder in the Venezuelan Government knowing they will invade Trinidad on Monday, to take over BPC’s assets there as they’re worth a fortune. (first part of sentence is a joke)

It wasn’t me.

Have a nice day. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ps…I invite everyone to report posts that go against the Ts and Cs of this forum, specifically DISRUPTION and ….. ‘[A forum member must NOT] ……. post, link to or otherwise publish any content that is threatening, abusive, libellous, indecent or otherwise unlawful. Doing so may lead to you being immediately and permanently banned, with notification to your Internet Service Provider if deemed required by us. (Source https://www.lse.co.uk/terms-and-conditions.html )

My post yesterday summarized the minimum (2115 boo/d) to maximum (2997 boo/d) production targets by y/end. A further deep dive into Thursday’s RNS shows three separate points which I believe are inter-connected. Key words in CAPS.

1. Acquisitions:…… ‘Technical and commercial DUE DILIGENCE progressing on certain potentially accretive production acquisition targets in Trinidad and Tobago’….’The Company is presently undertaking technical and commercial due diligence in relation to several targets which will ONLY be pursued if the returns on capital deployed to acquire any incremental production assets compare favourably to the returns of deployment of that capital on existing assets...’

2. Automation:…… ‘[BPC] and Weatherford have agreed to an extended trial of Weatherford's proven well automation systems during Q2 2021 on five wells across the Goudron and Inniss Trinity fields. The trial will automate the pumping units to optimise the production rates, allow real time monitoring and improved data collection for analysis across the entire production system…..following the completion of the trial, BPC has the option to acquire at LOW COST the installed equipment....’

3. Funding:…‘Discussions are ongoing with various parties in relation to a potential PREPAY facility over the Company's producing asset base in Trinidad and Tobago’…..’ Given the STRENGTH of the Company's projected production growth through the balance of 2021, several parties have indicated interest in providing such a facility, with negotiations and DUE DILIGENCE ongoing…..’

Opinions

BPC is NOT in the last chance saloon as some BPC haters and trolls allege. Far from it, BPC is at advanced stages of negotiating the acquisition of several saloons in town, or minimally all their booze stocks. This shows BOD CONFIDENCE. Due dili is when parties to a deal are serious, rather than tyre kicking a 2nd hand car.

Trinidad has hundreds of small operators. IMO, BPC is targeting ones with cashflow problems due to PoO collapse last year, or oil fields that need BPC’s engineering skills to optimize. (one of the USPs in the CERP merger). In addition, BPC may use Weatherford state-of-the-art tech to increase production and save labour costs. See https://www.weatherford.com/en/products-and-services/production/artificial-lift-systems/automation-and-control/

$60 PoO is generating c$3m/yr net profit excluding OTCs and Capex. So how can all this be funded? Either the BoD know something we don’t such as a farm-in, or if the target is large, buy it with new shares but at more than the 0.8p current funding bar, based on events unfolding in April/May. Or they may RBL the new assets they will acquire similar to a buy-to-let mortgage rather than risking the family home….. towards funding existing T+T assets out of the profit. Clever move.

STRONG BUY.

IMHO. DYOR. Enjoy Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/