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Rickierich: Thank you for the 2nd clarification post as I read your first one 3 times trying to understand your complaint.
I take your advice on board, however as part of defending an opinion, one has to provide detail. I sometimes use thought experiments, eg.... 'what if you were the BoD?' Yesterday I used a hypothetical IPO analogy to make the case the SP is seriously undervalued in the medium/long-term.
I'm sure you agree there's a handful of posters who machine gun post negativity. I rarely engage with them direct, but feel compelled to defend the company and the share by providing opinions using lengthy rebuttals.
I'm sorry you feel I'm costing you money. If true, despite being wrongly accused of being a rainbow filled delusional ramper, or a PR agent of BPC, I must be quite bad in this role. May I respectfully suggest the persons who have cost us all money in the last few weeks are the ones that machine gun posted negativity for selfish aims or out of hatred to BPC. They have spooked existing LTHs and potentially new ones, which is why the SP did not increase to over 0.8p as many thought would happen. This in turn meant we now have a placement instead of Bizzels advancing more money at 0.8p
GL
Starchild
Rickierich: eh?
Recent posts
Micktrick: …..’Outstanding tax losses are ~US$25 mm for Goudron, ~US$15 mm for Inniss-Trinity and ~US$45 mm at Bonnase/Saffron’…….’ (Page 20 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ) Total $85m. Although Trinidad has low HC royalties and the special petroleum tax threshold has been raised from $50 to $75/boe since 1/1/21 which is great for BPC, its corp tax is very high for oil/gas and I believe up to 50%. Our Mcap today is worth less than the tax credits.
BigBear2: Stena debt, refer to Auctus report below.
‘We are a family’ reference. I agree REAL shareholders, especially LTHs are a family. I am more attached to this BB ‘family’ than the share itself. If at some point I sold my shares, I’d still probably post on here out of Stockholm Syndrome. I try and keep the family spirits high by posting evidence backed research and opinion why, subject to ‘DYOR,’ there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Furthermore, I get very upset when someone attacks my LTH family and my real one by trying to hurt us financially for selfish gain.
I am criticised for rarely posting negativity. Why should I in this public goldfish bowl of sentiment? It just adds fuel to the fire so that persons who hate BPC or have no shares and want the SP to fall further will spew even more negativity 24x7. This is not a criticism against LTHs who occasionally wish to air frustrations.
Criticism against the BoD:
What would you have done differently since 2019 if you were the BPC BoD? Possible answers below.
1. ‘I would have done a farm-in’ [Me too. But what if no one was interested, or at punitive rates? If a farm-in materialised and Percy-1 was a gusher, would some LTHs want to fire the BoD for doing one?]
2. ‘The LOL deal was ridiculous’ [I agree. But during the perfect storm of the enviros’ attempted injunction when all other avenues of finance disappeared, what if LOL was the only choice? Thank G+d BPC only owes $4m minus $500k in fee refunds for the ‘Put’ reconciliation.]
3. ‘Dilution’ [I don’t care. Massive dilution is not a problem if there’s a massive ROI]
4. ‘Overhangs’ [I don’t mind as I’m not a day trader. I doubt the BoD cares about traders.]
Latest analysts’ opinions
Refer to latest Auctus (26/4) and SP Angel (23/4) reports. Go to https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BPC/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc/company-page near bottom ‘Equity Research’ and scroll down to get both reports. You will need to register. Key points:
Auctus: based on 7.9b shares (after placement and other factors) the latest NAV is 1.2p (pre-consolidation). This is based purely on S2 and Suriname spuds with detailed opinions how much cash BPC has and will need.
SP Angel: Buy - Expected return >15%; Hold - 15% to +15%; Sell < 15%
DYOR. IMHO. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
I have absolutely no idea why my post created such a reaction from Thebhoys. It was a very positive post using the analogy of an IPO, which is applicable today to BPC based on my bullet points...... because CEG is the name of the renamed BPC in a few weeks!
Oh well. Yet another poster who has removed me from his Christmas card list. I wish people would read posts properly before doing a knee jerk reaction and posting in anger.
Starchild
Ps: off topic... Leo's company Tulip Oil (he has been CEO for only a few months) was acquired by Kistos PLC last week. See https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KIST/acquisition-of-tulip-oil-for-eur222-75-million/14944137
I personally would be pleased if he rejoined the BPC BoD and helped to fulfil his vision of turning CERP (then BPC, now CEG) into a 500m company. That would make an interesting story: sold CERP, joined BPC, left BPC, joined Tulip (made a large ROI for its shareholders), joined CEG and ditto in a year or two. His CV would become very valuable for future appointments.
Just thinking, not predicting. GLA
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Imagine a new company is about to IPO/float on AIM next month, and you received a prospectus based on the essence of the live BPC one issued Saturday https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/23135622/Open-Offer-Circular-Web.pdf
This new company is called CEG PLC and will purchase for one penny all the assets and liabilities of an old company called BPC.
Liabilities:
A November loan from Bizzell for £3m, with a further £2m available the morning after the IPO. Total £5m.
Assets CEG acquired for one penny:
1. Cash in the bank, less legacy debts owed to LoL ($4m) and Stena (c$8m after negotiating offsets)
2. 450-500boe/day producing $3m/ year free cash, pre capex and OTCs, based on $60 PoO. To conserve cash, CEG has stated it will make opex reductions of 20-30%, from the current $4m/ year.
3. A headcount of 80 qualified staff and management.
4. An $85m Trinidad tax credit for certain future profits.
5. The possibility for a farm-in in the Bahamas. In fact, $140m was spent by its predecessor BPC over 10 years, which can potentially be monetized at any time.
6. The possibility for a farm-in in Uruguay.
7. An imminent Trinidad spud in weeks called Saffron 2.
8. A Suriname EWS/spud in the summer
9. Potentially 7 more Saffron spuds in Trinidad as its south west peninsula is believed to hold 200+mboe
10. Three financial institutions have agreed in principle to provide reserve based lending (cheap), infrastructure lending (cheap) or a shares-backed CLN (partly dilutive).
11. To fully hedge this investment, if everything goes wrong, CEG will farm-out most of its Trinidad business, shrink the payroll, and collect cash on success without further capex. Its tax credits alone are worth millions. (I made this bit up, apart from the tax credits)
Rhetorical questions:
BPC’s Mcap this morning is £19m (0.4p SP). What do you think CEG’s MCap could be…
(a) On the morning of the IPO?
(b) In 3 months?
(c) On Dec 2021 (assuming the stated goal of 2500boe / day is reached)?
(d) On Dec 2022?
All my posts are in good faith. I stand by the opinion I stated on several occasions when the SP was between 0.5p – 0.6p…. ‘There’s very little scope for the SP to fall further LONG-TERM, yet huge potential for a surge in the short-term. AIM is quick to punish and quick to reward its listed penny share companies….’
Always DYOR. IMHO. Sell, hold, buy….it’s up to you of course. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Ps… It is deeply upsetting when real shareholders, frustrated at their current paper losses, attack the motives or integrity of other real shareholders. Trolls, de-rampers and BPC haters who have no shares, FEED on this. I firmly believe their constant negativity and machine gun posting 24x7 has contributed to keeping the SP below 0.8p.
Jamesbond001: I am saddened by your post attacking me and accusing me of being a paid manager of the stock. I am not.
What makes it worse is i'm more than £100k down, so posts like yours do hurt. I have 10s of millions of shares and substantially increased my holdings since the spud result.
However despite all of this, I wish you well.
Starchild
ZagEgypt: you have no shares in BPC and therefore cannot vote. I will vote how I wish and generally vote in favour of Board recommendations as they know their company better than I do. If I didn't like the direction of a company I would sell up.
As for dilution, the BoD are shareholders and don't want dilution. Some dilution may be used to acquire other assets such as CERP. READ the prospectus
Are there any actual BPC shareholders on this BB anymore?
Starchild
READ the prospectus. £2m @ 0.8p (8p new shares) is UNCONDITIONAL, subject to a minimum of £5m being raised in the offering.
Bespoke: The answer is obvious based on SP being 0.5p-0.6p until thursday and for 20 days before. Read the whole prospectus. DYOR and and I suggest you email Bizzells direct for their motives as I appear to be lacking communication skills this morning trying to explain a simple concept taken straight out of the prospectus. But, I will try and explain one more time, before doing other family stuff.
1. Bizzells do not want to fund anything at the current SP, until the legacy debts were +/- paid to LOL and Stena etc.
2. They will fund £2m at 0.8p as stated in my previous posts, because they believe in SP upside without having these debts to service.
3. without legacy debts, BPC has a lot of potential to move forward as stated in the prospectus
have a nice day
Starchild
Comment.... 'If Bizzells were so confident why would they not lend £2million at today’s share price? This is so stupid, its laughable'
A: because they want the placing to clear legacy Percy-1 costs and LOL. Then, Bizzells have the confidence to lend more at 0.8p (8p new shares), because they believe in the company and its SP will be more than this in future.
As for 'laughable' or 'stupid'... if referring to me for misquoting the prospectus, read the prospectus to prove it was stated.
If referring to Bizzell being 'stupid', I do believe they got professional advice, and the collective experience and motives of those involved, is somewhat at odds to a non-shareholder who wishes for BPC to fail and machine gun posts negativity 24x7.
Always DYOR. I am sure Bizzells did
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Bespoke: I note your comments and will attempt to answer, but more respectfully.
1. Please read the prospectus. Does it state Bizzells will provide £2m at 0.8p or not? Answer is yes, subject to conditions as stated in my post and the document.
2. So why will they do so when they can buy at 0.4p today? The answer should be obvious. (a) 'pay to play' and (b) confidence.
GL
Starchild
The 77 page prospectus is now live. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/23135622/Open-Offer-Circular-Web.pdf
Pages 21 – 27 is the meat, specifically funding and how it will be spent but read in full. If you have tech questions relating to the offer, I suggest you do not rely on this BB, but contact Link Group (see https://www.bpcplc.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information/ ). A little throw away comment on page 27 was interesting, which I missed in Friday’s RNS: A Uruguay farm-in is a NEAR-TERM option. If you x-ref this with the Uruguay section in the RNS, it is probably because since acquiring the license, ANCAP the state oil company has undertaken studies, making this acreage potentially more valuable.
Prospectus section 3.3.3 (b-c) confirms Bizzell will lend £2m up to 14/6, regardless of whether Saffron 2 is successful, if BPC raises at least £5m (approx. half) from the placement. It will be @ 0.8p (8p post consolidation).
It is encouraging Bizzell has the confidence to lend 2 million quid at DOUBLE the current SP, despite the dilution on the way. What rational funding organization would do so, unless they believed the SP will be more than 0.8p/8p in future? IMO, the SP festered at 0.5-0.7p for weeks because of the unknown Percy-1 liabilities.
This was exacerbated by non-shareholders bombarding negativity on BBs 24x7, for reasons only known to themselves. Their constant warnings (or I should say hopes of BPC funding problems) became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Had the SP been at 0.8p+ for the last few weeks, Bizzell would have likely carried on lending at 0.8p. I note a couple who bombarded negativity yet have no shares, plan to come back in a few weeks. This is I allege, to attempt to hurt BPC again by machine gun posting negative sentiment (disguised as expert ‘advice’ out of concern to fellow human beings) if things are going well for us real shareholders. KARMA.
We now know what the Percy-1 legacy costs are, and a path has been set to pay them, while having access to capital in various forms to move forward in developing ex-CERP assets. These are Saffron 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, Suriname, and the huge Trinidad SWP oil field. As I see it, the cash reserves BPC will have, are to undertake initial spuds and workovers, yet have the cash to do a couple more in the event of failure. In the event of success, alternative funding will be available such as RBL, pre-selling and infrastructure borrowing.
FYI: our new company ticker will be CEG. The domain CEGPLC.com was recently registered by the same IOM tech IT company that manages the BPCPLC domain. It is not yet live.
I am not happy with the 50% potential dilution, however it will help ‘reset’ the company to move forward, so I plan to vote YES on all resolutions as voting ‘no’ may have negative consequences.
Always DYOR. Enjoy Sunday. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
BPC: The past
In 2020 BPC raised tens of millions to fund Percy-1. They did so against a head wind of Covid, the Gov being anti-drilling and an attempted injunction by enviros. The latter caused major funding problems. BPC was forced to use a hedge fund @2p with punitive rates. Because of the court shenanigans the SP did not increase to 6p as pro-analysts predicted and LOL could not offload pre-result. BPC now owes LOL $4m. To compound the problem the drill went over-budget by several million although some is disputed.
Persons who had NO shares contributed to the problem by bombarding negativity 24x7 on BBs. Current and potential investors do read BBs because small AIM companies have little mainstream media coverage. BBs are goldfish bowls of market sentiment. A few posters who had NO shares and for unknown reasons allegedly DESPISE BPC posted negativity 7 days a week. This certainly contributed to the SP not exceeding 0.8p. Had it done so, Bizzell would have been more inclined to continue funding at the 0.8p level.
BPC: Today
Reading between the lines of the RNS, Bizzell refused to fund at 0.8p while the SP was stuck at below that figure until the Percy backlog is cleared, hence the placement offer for c$10m to do so.
BPC: The future
1. Farm-in is clearly not an immediate option. It can’t be until the licenses are renewed. In fact, BPC’s stated goal is to do so by Oct/Nov 2021. Page 10 chart https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf (Also on Willec’s last post for BPC Twitter)
2. Subject to funding, the ex-CERP mega opportunities are still there: 9 Saffrons, Suriname and SWP
3. I am not a day trader, so I don’t give two hoots about overhangs, as I look medium/long-term.
4. BPC is still producing oil and at $60 PoO, generating c$3m in free cashflow after opex, excluding OTCs and debt.
5. It is good Bizzell will be on the BoD. It means the priority is to shareholders and not their debt repayment.
6. It is good the Bizzell funding bar is still set at 0.8p (8p in new shares). This shows belief the SP will increase to at least that level.
7. Thursday’s Proactive presentation will be interesting.
DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
PS: Anthea I wish you well.
Clearly, the conditions precedent (ie, the initial 0.8p funding bar) agreed with the Australian investor were NOT met, because the SP hovered between 0.45p-0.75p. BPC and the Australian investors (who no doubt had access to professional risk analysts clearly believed it would reach at least 0.8p, (especially leading to the S2 spud next month), otherwise the deal wouldn’t have been done at that rate. I shared this view and so did other commentators who post here in good faith, so we have absolutely nothing to be ashamed about.
I am frankly appalled at the gloating and personal attacks this morning. Message boards DO influence sentiment and in BPC’s case clearly affected the SP.
Had the SP been at the 0.8p+ levels and met conditions precedent, BPC would have had access to further funding from the Australians. But it didn’t. I hope those that bombarded negativity which became a self-fulfilling prophecy are happy with themselves for hurting LTHs so much, especially ex-LGO/CERP holders who have been affected worse of all in the last 5 years by dilution.
I need to do an RNS deep-dive over the weekend, however this morning Proactive provided a summary of the positives for the medium / long-term, refer to https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947477/bahamas-petroleum-to-reset-and-rebrand-as-challenger-energy-group-947477.html . Note a key point, …. ’ Any shares not taken up will be sold to institutional investors at the SAME [0.35p] price…..’ . This explains why the SP is hovering at 0.4p, as the pro-investors buying today believe at 0.4p (£18.5m MCap) is very good value. Remember anyone wanting to exercise the right to buy at 0.35p, must have the shares first!
I am not enamoured by the share-dilution but can live with the lower SP pending the potential excellent stuff in the pipeline. I prefer share-dilution than selling assets, which would have been the last resort.
GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
It is worth listening to the 16min Simon Potter interview again from 3 weeks ago. (Zxie from the wild west forum, thanks for reminding us)
Key points are from 12-18 mins:
> Suriname EWT will only cost $400k
> Funding availability vs need
> Simon’s 3 main justifications why it’s a good time to invest in BPC:
1. Lots of news-flow which he describes
2. Current depressed share-price (due to Percy-1 result) is fully under-pinned by current production
3. Strong SP upside
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/bahamas-petroleum-company-hummingbird-resources-and-glen-goodman-on-crypto-5f89635/ (Note: If the link is auto censored. Join the letters… v o x m a r k e t s ….for the missing word )
My personal observations
I would rather trust BPC’s CEO who stated this in good faith under strict regulatory rules restricting what he can and cannot say, rather than trust those that bombard this BB who openly disclosed having no shares. In fact, one has openly stated s/he does so as a self-appointed 'weeder’, ‘ramper stamper' and referred to posters who provide researched opinions as ‘aggressively naïve.’
If Simon is right, the share-price will increase based on expected news, some imminent. If so, BUY.
If the anti-BPC commentators who bombard negativity on this BB 24x7, some for undisclosed or allegedly spurious reasons are right, then SELL.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Ps: whole threads were deleted yesterday by moderators. This BB is being actively monitored which is a good thing as it is a goldfish bowl read by current and future investors who read opinions and gauge sentiment while doing their own research. I personally have no issue if any REAL shareholder occasionally posts negative opinions out of frustration at the current SP or lack of news. Although I personally believe such grievances are best served by respectfully and confidentially emailing the company. That’s what I would do and have done. However, that’s just my opinion as I do not own LSE, nor have BB policing powers, nor sit on the BPC BoD.
onlybpc: I get weekly updates from Proactive. The BPC entry didn't appear until yesterday. At anytime before yesterday BPC could have told Proactive to pull the slot or postpone it without anyone knowing. Just a thought.
GL
Starchild
Thebhoys: It was not negative against ADV as the facts are unknown to me as I stated. It was meant to sound positive for BPC based on Mcap comparisons. BPC has the huge potential of a farm-in, an imminent spud, with another to follow in the summer and potential 200mboe in the SWP. Yet, BPC's Mcap is absurdly worth c£25m. ADV's £21m similar Mcap must be for a reason which we will find out about next week at the Proactive presentation.
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SvS: I think the presentation next week will cover most bases including funding etc. The reason being the format of Proactive presentations publicly show all questions being asked to the presenter in real-time. I doubt any details will be released on farm-in discussions other than they are ongoing. Otherwise it could complicate matters due to the court case and until the 3 year extension has been formally approved by the Bahamas Gov.
As I stated yesterday, the inference to me is an RNS is imminent, and it will be a good one, otherwise BPC would have tried to keep a very low profile...... until good news was forthcoming. It makes no logical sense to hold a presentation with the key point being..... 'we haven't got much news to update you on, but everything is looking good, so buy BPC shares.'
I'm also interested to hear from Advance Energy that will follow the BPC presentation. I don't actually fully understand what they have to offer, other than seeking farm-in partners to harvest HCs from legacy wells, yet they are worth £21m Mcap. This is not meant to sound negative against ADV.L, as I haven't done a deep dive yet.
DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
BPC Proactive presentation next week 29/4....I suggest real shareholders register.
The inference to me is an RNS is imminent (may be tomorrow/thursday), and it will be good, otherwise the BoD would have tried to keep a very low profile...... until good news was forthcoming.
GLA
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