Member Info for Starchild

Ignore the trolls and shorters. The poster conveniently forgot to include $10m from placing before inviting you to do the maths.

All funding estimates and answers can be seen in the latest Auctus presentation i referred to this morning. It is now on BPC website > news. See. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf

Don't forget Proactive presentation at 6pm

GLA real shareholders

Starchild

SVS: I ran out of room for the PS to you in my last post.

As part of your due dili, I suggest you refer to latest Auctus (26/4) and SP Angel (23/4) reports.

Go to https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BPC/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc/company-page near bottom ‘Equity Research’ and scroll down to get both reports. You will need to register. Key points:

Auctus: based on 7.9b shares (after placement and other factors) the latest NAV is 1.2p (pre-consolidation). This is based purely on S2 and Suriname spuds with detailed opinions how much cash BPC has and will need.

SP Angel: Buy - Expected return >15%; Hold - 15% to +15%; Sell < 15%

GL

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Most holders will now have the voting and offer documents via their trading platform. There are 2 decisions to be made. How to vote and whether to take the share @0.35p.

Voting
There are 5 resolutions. (refer to paper version https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/23135628/EGM-17-May-Proxy-WEB.pdf ) I voted yes (‘for’) on all 5 as it means we can reset the company and move forward. Point 5 is very fair for us. Bizzell will get 245m shares @ 0.8p NOT 0.35p. I doubt they will sell them for less than 0.8p

There are people on this BB who will strongly lobby for a no vote. Those that have NO shares will do so because they are likely shorting and want BPC to totally collapse. Others who actually have shares may vote no in anger, as a protest to the current SP. This is their absolute right. If a no vote is passed, unless a plan ‘B’ is made public by the BoD, it is an almost mathematical certainty the SP will collapse further to the delight of the shorters. The market does not like uncertainty with the resolutions if approved, bringing closure to the past, while opening doors to the future.

Share options
As a separate matter, we have the right but not the obligation to take up none, all, or request more of our entitlement. I prefer at this time not to disclose what I will do.

The anti-BPC mob, who have a major conflict of interest while shorting BPC, will strongly lobby for you not to. I see it as a separate investment. If you believe the SP will increase to more than 0.35p, perhaps leading to the S2 and/or Suriname spuds (and the results), then buy. If not, don’t. The last time we were invited to take part in an open offer was in 2019 but this was in parallel to a placement that was 60% over-subscribed. (source https://ewnews.com/bahamas-petroleum-raises-11-4-mil-towards-exploratory-well ). During 2020 some folks were outraged when IIs took part in a discounted placement instead of shareholders. So, the company is now giving us first dibs.

Share consolidation
Every 10 shares will be swapped for 1 new share at 10x the value on the conversion date. This can increase trading volume while decreasing SP volatility. 0.35-0.45p is a huge c25% MM spread, with the SP often going up and down hourly by 10%. At 3.9p - 4p it does not. Furthermore, although IIs focus on £100m+ Mcaps (or those expected to grow to that size), they avoid sub 1p SP small caps.

Proactive presentation
Is this evening at 6pm. To register https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/334

Finally, thank G+d for ex-CERP assets’ potential. Ironically, if a Bahamas farm-in is announced, we will all benefit from this symbiotic relationship including ex-CERP LTHs who have suffered more long-term financial pain and dilution than BPC LTHs have.

DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

SvS: c7.9B. (c790m new). See 27/4 Auctus report bottom of BPC LSE page

Druid: I relied on the Auctus report for the $85m tax credit reference. Pro-analysts reports are good enough for me compared to any opinion on this BB.

Respectfully, I suggest you DYOR for the raw research and get back to us. Refer to LGO and CERP’s historical financial statements. They accumulated losses in Trinidad and UK over many years as part of their developments plan to grow the business. So did BPC ($140m) to do Percy-1 however this is not tax deductible as there is no tax on the Isle of Mann or in The Bahamas. (Nor UK taxes as BPC has no connection there other than some of the BoD are Australian and have the same Queen)

BPC shareholders including ex-CERP ones are now in a position to benefit from the foundations laid by LGO/CERP.

I try and be helpful and attempt to answer questions other than from anti-BPC commentators who will then spawn 10 more questions to disparage BPC further in attempted dialogue with me and others. I’m not suggesting you are in that camp, however I am reticent to engage with someone that insulted me by publicly doubting my integrity.

GL

Starchild

Refer to 26/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/ry4n3kr and page 9 of the presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf . Figures approx:

1. At $60 PoO, BPC is making revenue to cover all opex with $3m/year free cashflow after $4m/ year G&A, excluding OTCs and Capex.

2. $1m capex for incremental production programs. Success = 100 bopd = $1m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

3. $3m capex to spud S2 Trinidad in May. Success = 200-300 bopd = $2-3m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

4. $2.5m capex to spud Suriname including an EWT ($700k) in a few months. Success = 500+ bopd = $2.5m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

5. New Biz development opportunities 100+ bopd $0.7m/year free cash. Capex $2.5m - $3m. (ROI 4 years).

6. The Saffron 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 full-field development (2-3 years) 4,000+ bopd $25m+/year free cash. Capex <$60m. (ROI 2 years).

7. The infill drilling programs 200 - 400 bopd $3m - $4.5m/year free cash. Capex <$6m. (ROI 2 years)

Other ROI points

8. C/F tax losses for T+T is $85m. (Source page 20 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ). T+T corptax is very high for oil/gas. I believe up to 50%. BPC’s Mcap today is worth less than these tax credits in the event of a takeover. Regardless, these credits positively affect the ROI in points 1 – 7 above.

9. The special PT threshold has been raised from $50 to $75/boe since 1/1/21. This too positively affects ROI.

10. Refer to 2019 CERP accounts page 14 (https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05901339/filing-history ). Note: since the T+T Gov closed the local refinery, CERP/BPC earned 2% MORE than PoO WTI by selling direct to Heritage who use Brent PoO. Using simple maths as the WTI/Brent price difference is fluid, BPC earns +/- the mid-price.

Funding assumptions

Cash on hand plus the upcoming placement to shareholders (c$10m) will clear the slate (Stena/LOL) and probably have enough left to do S2 and a Suriname EWS. In the meantime, BPC is generating c$250k / mth free cash.

Bizzell funding will become available at 0.8p (pre-consolidation SP), subject to >£5m being taken up by shareholders and/or institutions @0.35p.

Not all LTHs will take their full entitlement. Those that do will have the option for more @0.35p.

Financial institutions have appetite for oil wells and mines that give an ROI in 1-3 years. BPC does NOT need tens of millions NOW to do 1- 7. It will have access to RBL, infrastructure $, pre-sell $, while using Bizzell $ to strengthen the balance-sheet if needed.

And a future Uru or Bahamas farm-in will be a mega bonus.

DYOR. IMHO. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Note: Bully1985 finally admits to shorting BPC. This now explains his 24x7 bombardment of negativity on this BB.

Rickierich: Thank you for the 2nd clarification post as I read your first one 3 times trying to understand your complaint.

I take your advice on board, however as part of defending an opinion, one has to provide detail. I sometimes use thought experiments, eg.... 'what if you were the BoD?' Yesterday I used a hypothetical IPO analogy to make the case the SP is seriously undervalued in the medium/long-term.

I'm sure you agree there's a handful of posters who machine gun post negativity. I rarely engage with them direct, but feel compelled to defend the company and the share by providing opinions using lengthy rebuttals.

I'm sorry you feel I'm costing you money. If true, despite being wrongly accused of being a rainbow filled delusional ramper, or a PR agent of BPC, I must be quite bad in this role. May I respectfully suggest the persons who have cost us all money in the last few weeks are the ones that machine gun posted negativity for selfish aims or out of hatred to BPC. They have spooked existing LTHs and potentially new ones, which is why the SP did not increase to over 0.8p as many thought would happen. This in turn meant we now have a placement instead of Bizzels advancing more money at 0.8p

GL

Starchild

Rickierich: eh?

Recent posts

Micktrick: …..’Outstanding tax losses are ~US$25 mm for Goudron, ~US$15 mm for Inniss-Trinity and ~US$45 mm at Bonnase/Saffron’…….’ (Page 20 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ) Total $85m. Although Trinidad has low HC royalties and the special petroleum tax threshold has been raised from $50 to $75/boe since 1/1/21 which is great for BPC, its corp tax is very high for oil/gas and I believe up to 50%. Our Mcap today is worth less than the tax credits.

BigBear2: Stena debt, refer to Auctus report below.

‘We are a family’ reference. I agree REAL shareholders, especially LTHs are a family. I am more attached to this BB ‘family’ than the share itself. If at some point I sold my shares, I’d still probably post on here out of Stockholm Syndrome. I try and keep the family spirits high by posting evidence backed research and opinion why, subject to ‘DYOR,’ there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Furthermore, I get very upset when someone attacks my LTH family and my real one by trying to hurt us financially for selfish gain.

I am criticised for rarely posting negativity. Why should I in this public goldfish bowl of sentiment? It just adds fuel to the fire so that persons who hate BPC or have no shares and want the SP to fall further will spew even more negativity 24x7. This is not a criticism against LTHs who occasionally wish to air frustrations.

Criticism against the BoD:

What would you have done differently since 2019 if you were the BPC BoD? Possible answers below.

1. ‘I would have done a farm-in’ [Me too. But what if no one was interested, or at punitive rates? If a farm-in materialised and Percy-1 was a gusher, would some LTHs want to fire the BoD for doing one?]

2. ‘The LOL deal was ridiculous’ [I agree. But during the perfect storm of the enviros’ attempted injunction when all other avenues of finance disappeared, what if LOL was the only choice? Thank G+d BPC only owes $4m minus $500k in fee refunds for the ‘Put’ reconciliation.]

3. ‘Dilution’ [I don’t care. Massive dilution is not a problem if there’s a massive ROI]

4. ‘Overhangs’ [I don’t mind as I’m not a day trader. I doubt the BoD cares about traders.]

Latest analysts’ opinions

Refer to latest Auctus (26/4) and SP Angel (23/4) reports. Go to https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BPC/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc/company-page near bottom ‘Equity Research’ and scroll down to get both reports. You will need to register. Key points:

Auctus: based on 7.9b shares (after placement and other factors) the latest NAV is 1.2p (pre-consolidation). This is based purely on S2 and Suriname spuds with detailed opinions how much cash BPC has and will need.

SP Angel: Buy - Expected return >15%; Hold - 15% to +15%; Sell < 15%

DYOR. IMHO. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I have absolutely no idea why my post created such a reaction from Thebhoys. It was a very positive post using the analogy of an IPO, which is applicable today to BPC based on my bullet points...... because CEG is the name of the renamed BPC in a few weeks!

Oh well. Yet another poster who has removed me from his Christmas card list. I wish people would read posts properly before doing a knee jerk reaction and posting in anger.

Starchild

Ps: off topic... Leo's company Tulip Oil (he has been CEO for only a few months) was acquired by Kistos PLC last week. See https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KIST/acquisition-of-tulip-oil-for-eur222-75-million/14944137

I personally would be pleased if he rejoined the BPC BoD and helped to fulfil his vision of turning CERP (then BPC, now CEG) into a 500m company. That would make an interesting story: sold CERP, joined BPC, left BPC, joined Tulip (made a large ROI for its shareholders), joined CEG and ditto in a year or two. His CV would become very valuable for future appointments.

Just thinking, not predicting. GLA

Starchild

Imagine a new company is about to IPO/float on AIM next month, and you received a prospectus based on the essence of the live BPC one issued Saturday https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/23135622/Open-Offer-Circular-Web.pdf

This new company is called CEG PLC and will purchase for one penny all the assets and liabilities of an old company called BPC.

Liabilities:
A November loan from Bizzell for £3m, with a further £2m available the morning after the IPO. Total £5m.

Assets CEG acquired for one penny:

1. Cash in the bank, less legacy debts owed to LoL ($4m) and Stena (c$8m after negotiating offsets)

2. 450-500boe/day producing $3m/ year free cash, pre capex and OTCs, based on $60 PoO. To conserve cash, CEG has stated it will make opex reductions of 20-30%, from the current $4m/ year.

3. A headcount of 80 qualified staff and management.

4. An $85m Trinidad tax credit for certain future profits.

5. The possibility for a farm-in in the Bahamas. In fact, $140m was spent by its predecessor BPC over 10 years, which can potentially be monetized at any time.

6. The possibility for a farm-in in Uruguay.

7. An imminent Trinidad spud in weeks called Saffron 2.

8. A Suriname EWS/spud in the summer

9. Potentially 7 more Saffron spuds in Trinidad as its south west peninsula is believed to hold 200+mboe

10. Three financial institutions have agreed in principle to provide reserve based lending (cheap), infrastructure lending (cheap) or a shares-backed CLN (partly dilutive).

11. To fully hedge this investment, if everything goes wrong, CEG will farm-out most of its Trinidad business, shrink the payroll, and collect cash on success without further capex. Its tax credits alone are worth millions. (I made this bit up, apart from the tax credits)

Rhetorical questions:

BPC’s Mcap this morning is £19m (0.4p SP). What do you think CEG’s MCap could be…

(a) On the morning of the IPO?

(b) In 3 months?

(c) On Dec 2021 (assuming the stated goal of 2500boe / day is reached)?

(d) On Dec 2022?

All my posts are in good faith. I stand by the opinion I stated on several occasions when the SP was between 0.5p – 0.6p…. ‘There’s very little scope for the SP to fall further LONG-TERM, yet huge potential for a surge in the short-term. AIM is quick to punish and quick to reward its listed penny share companies….’

Always DYOR. IMHO. Sell, hold, buy….it’s up to you of course. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps… It is deeply upsetting when real shareholders, frustrated at their current paper losses, attack the motives or integrity of other real shareholders. Trolls, de-rampers and BPC haters who have no shares, FEED on this. I firmly believe their constant negativity and machine gun posting 24x7 has contributed to keeping the SP below 0.8p.

Jamesbond001: I am saddened by your post attacking me and accusing me of being a paid manager of the stock. I am not.

What makes it worse is i'm more than £100k down, so posts like yours do hurt. I have 10s of millions of shares and substantially increased my holdings since the spud result.

However despite all of this, I wish you well.

Starchild

ZagEgypt: you have no shares in BPC and therefore cannot vote. I will vote how I wish and generally vote in favour of Board recommendations as they know their company better than I do. If I didn't like the direction of a company I would sell up.

As for dilution, the BoD are shareholders and don't want dilution. Some dilution may be used to acquire other assets such as CERP. READ the prospectus

Are there any actual BPC shareholders on this BB anymore?

Starchild

READ the prospectus. £2m @ 0.8p (8p new shares) is UNCONDITIONAL, subject to a minimum of £5m being raised in the offering.

Bespoke: The answer is obvious based on SP being 0.5p-0.6p until thursday and for 20 days before. Read the whole prospectus. DYOR and and I suggest you email Bizzells direct for their motives as I appear to be lacking communication skills this morning trying to explain a simple concept taken straight out of the prospectus. But, I will try and explain one more time, before doing other family stuff.

1. Bizzells do not want to fund anything at the current SP, until the legacy debts were +/- paid to LOL and Stena etc.

2. They will fund £2m at 0.8p as stated in my previous posts, because they believe in SP upside without having these debts to service.

3. without legacy debts, BPC has a lot of potential to move forward as stated in the prospectus

have a nice day

Starchild

Comment.... 'If Bizzells were so confident why would they not lend £2million at today’s share price? This is so stupid, its laughable'

A: because they want the placing to clear legacy Percy-1 costs and LOL. Then, Bizzells have the confidence to lend more at 0.8p (8p new shares), because they believe in the company and its SP will be more than this in future.

As for 'laughable' or 'stupid'... if referring to me for misquoting the prospectus, read the prospectus to prove it was stated.

If referring to Bizzell being 'stupid', I do believe they got professional advice, and the collective experience and motives of those involved, is somewhat at odds to a non-shareholder who wishes for BPC to fail and machine gun posts negativity 24x7.

Always DYOR. I am sure Bizzells did

Starchild

Bespoke: I note your comments and will attempt to answer, but more respectfully.

1. Please read the prospectus. Does it state Bizzells will provide £2m at 0.8p or not? Answer is yes, subject to conditions as stated in my post and the document.

2. So why will they do so when they can buy at 0.4p today? The answer should be obvious. (a) 'pay to play' and (b) confidence.

GL

Starchild

The 77 page prospectus is now live. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/23135622/Open-Offer-Circular-Web.pdf

Pages 21 – 27 is the meat, specifically funding and how it will be spent but read in full. If you have tech questions relating to the offer, I suggest you do not rely on this BB, but contact Link Group (see https://www.bpcplc.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information/ ). A little throw away comment on page 27 was interesting, which I missed in Friday’s RNS: A Uruguay farm-in is a NEAR-TERM option. If you x-ref this with the Uruguay section in the RNS, it is probably because since acquiring the license, ANCAP the state oil company has undertaken studies, making this acreage potentially more valuable.

Prospectus section 3.3.3 (b-c) confirms Bizzell will lend £2m up to 14/6, regardless of whether Saffron 2 is successful, if BPC raises at least £5m (approx. half) from the placement. It will be @ 0.8p (8p post consolidation).

It is encouraging Bizzell has the confidence to lend 2 million quid at DOUBLE the current SP, despite the dilution on the way. What rational funding organization would do so, unless they believed the SP will be more than 0.8p/8p in future? IMO, the SP festered at 0.5-0.7p for weeks because of the unknown Percy-1 liabilities.

This was exacerbated by non-shareholders bombarding negativity on BBs 24x7, for reasons only known to themselves. Their constant warnings (or I should say hopes of BPC funding problems) became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Had the SP been at 0.8p+ for the last few weeks, Bizzell would have likely carried on lending at 0.8p. I note a couple who bombarded negativity yet have no shares, plan to come back in a few weeks. This is I allege, to attempt to hurt BPC again by machine gun posting negative sentiment (disguised as expert ‘advice’ out of concern to fellow human beings) if things are going well for us real shareholders. KARMA.

We now know what the Percy-1 legacy costs are, and a path has been set to pay them, while having access to capital in various forms to move forward in developing ex-CERP assets. These are Saffron 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, Suriname, and the huge Trinidad SWP oil field. As I see it, the cash reserves BPC will have, are to undertake initial spuds and workovers, yet have the cash to do a couple more in the event of failure. In the event of success, alternative funding will be available such as RBL, pre-selling and infrastructure borrowing.

FYI: our new company ticker will be CEG. The domain CEGPLC.com was recently registered by the same IOM tech IT company that manages the BPCPLC domain. It is not yet live.

I am not happy with the 50% potential dilution, however it will help ‘reset’ the company to move forward, so I plan to vote YES on all resolutions as voting ‘no’ may have negative consequences.

Always DYOR. Enjoy Sunday. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

BPC: The past

In 2020 BPC raised tens of millions to fund Percy-1. They did so against a head wind of Covid, the Gov being anti-drilling and an attempted injunction by enviros. The latter caused major funding problems. BPC was forced to use a hedge fund @2p with punitive rates. Because of the court shenanigans the SP did not increase to 6p as pro-analysts predicted and LOL could not offload pre-result. BPC now owes LOL $4m. To compound the problem the drill went over-budget by several million although some is disputed.

Persons who had NO shares contributed to the problem by bombarding negativity 24x7 on BBs. Current and potential investors do read BBs because small AIM companies have little mainstream media coverage. BBs are goldfish bowls of market sentiment. A few posters who had NO shares and for unknown reasons allegedly DESPISE BPC posted negativity 7 days a week. This certainly contributed to the SP not exceeding 0.8p. Had it done so, Bizzell would have been more inclined to continue funding at the 0.8p level.

BPC: Today

Reading between the lines of the RNS, Bizzell refused to fund at 0.8p while the SP was stuck at below that figure until the Percy backlog is cleared, hence the placement offer for c$10m to do so.

BPC: The future

1. Farm-in is clearly not an immediate option. It can’t be until the licenses are renewed. In fact, BPC’s stated goal is to do so by Oct/Nov 2021. Page 10 chart https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf (Also on Willec’s last post for BPC Twitter)

2. Subject to funding, the ex-CERP mega opportunities are still there: 9 Saffrons, Suriname and SWP

3. I am not a day trader, so I don’t give two hoots about overhangs, as I look medium/long-term.

4. BPC is still producing oil and at $60 PoO, generating c$3m in free cashflow after opex, excluding OTCs and debt.

5. It is good Bizzell will be on the BoD. It means the priority is to shareholders and not their debt repayment.

6. It is good the Bizzell funding bar is still set at 0.8p (8p in new shares). This shows belief the SP will increase to at least that level.

7. Thursday’s Proactive presentation will be interesting.

DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: Anthea I wish you well.

Clearly, the conditions precedent (ie, the initial 0.8p funding bar) agreed with the Australian investor were NOT met, because the SP hovered between 0.45p-0.75p. BPC and the Australian investors (who no doubt had access to professional risk analysts clearly believed it would reach at least 0.8p, (especially leading to the S2 spud next month), otherwise the deal wouldn’t have been done at that rate. I shared this view and so did other commentators who post here in good faith, so we have absolutely nothing to be ashamed about.

I am frankly appalled at the gloating and personal attacks this morning. Message boards DO influence sentiment and in BPC’s case clearly affected the SP.

Had the SP been at the 0.8p+ levels and met conditions precedent, BPC would have had access to further funding from the Australians. But it didn’t. I hope those that bombarded negativity which became a self-fulfilling prophecy are happy with themselves for hurting LTHs so much, especially ex-LGO/CERP holders who have been affected worse of all in the last 5 years by dilution.

I need to do an RNS deep-dive over the weekend, however this morning Proactive provided a summary of the positives for the medium / long-term, refer to https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947477/bahamas-petroleum-to-reset-and-rebrand-as-challenger-energy-group-947477.html . Note a key point, …. ’ Any shares not taken up will be sold to institutional investors at the SAME [0.35p] price…..’ . This explains why the SP is hovering at 0.4p, as the pro-investors buying today believe at 0.4p (£18.5m MCap) is very good value. Remember anyone wanting to exercise the right to buy at 0.35p, must have the shares first!

I am not enamoured by the share-dilution but can live with the lower SP pending the potential excellent stuff in the pipeline. I prefer share-dilution than selling assets, which would have been the last resort.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/