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It is worth listening to the 16min Simon Potter interview again from 3 weeks ago. (Zxie from the wild west forum, thanks for reminding us)

Key points are from 12-18 mins:

> Suriname EWT will only cost $400k
> Funding availability vs need
> Simon’s 3 main justifications why it’s a good time to invest in BPC:

1. Lots of news-flow which he describes

2. Current depressed share-price (due to Percy-1 result) is fully under-pinned by current production

3. Strong SP upside

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/bahamas-petroleum-company-hummingbird-resources-and-glen-goodman-on-crypto-5f89635/ (Note: If the link is auto censored. Join the letters… v o x m a r k e t s ….for the missing word )

My personal observations

I would rather trust BPC’s CEO who stated this in good faith under strict regulatory rules restricting what he can and cannot say, rather than trust those that bombard this BB who openly disclosed having no shares. In fact, one has openly stated s/he does so as a self-appointed 'weeder’, ‘ramper stamper' and referred to posters who provide researched opinions as ‘aggressively naïve.’

If Simon is right, the share-price will increase based on expected news, some imminent. If so, BUY.

If the anti-BPC commentators who bombard negativity on this BB 24x7, some for undisclosed or allegedly spurious reasons are right, then SELL.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: whole threads were deleted yesterday by moderators. This BB is being actively monitored which is a good thing as it is a goldfish bowl read by current and future investors who read opinions and gauge sentiment while doing their own research. I personally have no issue if any REAL shareholder occasionally posts negative opinions out of frustration at the current SP or lack of news. Although I personally believe such grievances are best served by respectfully and confidentially emailing the company. That’s what I would do and have done. However, that’s just my opinion as I do not own LSE, nor have BB policing powers, nor sit on the BPC BoD.

onlybpc: I get weekly updates from Proactive. The BPC entry didn't appear until yesterday. At anytime before yesterday BPC could have told Proactive to pull the slot or postpone it without anyone knowing. Just a thought.

GL

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Thebhoys: It was not negative against ADV as the facts are unknown to me as I stated. It was meant to sound positive for BPC based on Mcap comparisons. BPC has the huge potential of a farm-in, an imminent spud, with another to follow in the summer and potential 200mboe in the SWP. Yet, BPC's Mcap is absurdly worth c£25m. ADV's £21m similar Mcap must be for a reason which we will find out about next week at the Proactive presentation.

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SvS: I think the presentation next week will cover most bases including funding etc. The reason being the format of Proactive presentations publicly show all questions being asked to the presenter in real-time. I doubt any details will be released on farm-in discussions other than they are ongoing. Otherwise it could complicate matters due to the court case and until the 3 year extension has been formally approved by the Bahamas Gov.

As I stated yesterday, the inference to me is an RNS is imminent, and it will be a good one, otherwise BPC would have tried to keep a very low profile...... until good news was forthcoming. It makes no logical sense to hold a presentation with the key point being..... 'we haven't got much news to update you on, but everything is looking good, so buy BPC shares.'

I'm also interested to hear from Advance Energy that will follow the BPC presentation. I don't actually fully understand what they have to offer, other than seeking farm-in partners to harvest HCs from legacy wells, yet they are worth £21m Mcap. This is not meant to sound negative against ADV.L, as I haven't done a deep dive yet.

DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

BPC Proactive presentation next week 29/4....I suggest real shareholders register.

The inference to me is an RNS is imminent (may be tomorrow/thursday), and it will be good, otherwise the BoD would have tried to keep a very low profile...... until good news was forthcoming.

GLA

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Rickierich: I don't normally hard ramp, but as you asked and I like you, here's one:

'I think BPC is better then rum and raisin ice cream, better than a gourmet feast and it could make everyone very wealthy in next week. Cor blimey, I don't wanna be out of this share by friday.'

off to meetings

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ps...DYOR

Why would BPC be hiring a new senior HR employee in Trinidad (source https://twitter.com/BPCplc and LinkedIn) unless it had the funds and was planning expansion in T+T?

It does not convey the idea BPC is scraping pennies together to make ends meet as some persons on this BB, who have no shares, allege.

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SVS: My point 8 stated the possibility of more detailed information forthcoming on the Percy-1 result compared to recent RNSs and presentations. A technically independent report (a CPR or similar), would answer two key questions: In light of the non commercial find, what does a WPS mean to the value and potential in millions of barrels? What is the new CoS?

About to start my 'proper' working day, but will keep an eye on the BB

GL

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SvS: Refer to my post 16 Apr 2021 04:37. It lists what I believe is expected news. But I could be wrong.

GL

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Onlybpc: I absolutely concur!

If we refer to recent RNSs, certain key events were triggered on or by Friday 16/4. This means it is unlikely BPC has done deals and reconciliations with 3rd parties over the weekend for announcement this morning, especially taking into account time differences with UK (Stena/LOL), Australia (Investor) and Bahamas/Trinidad (BoD/senior management locations).

BPC may also be awaiting confirmation on other matters and prefers to provide everything in one corporate update RNS, rather than leave certain points unanswered. The market prefers certainty in a 'big bang' RNS rather than a trickle of news.

GL

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Jono44: Your comment Sunday ……‘Where did you find the info that the licences had been re applied for on 31/03/21.If you just made it up don't reply’

Respectfully, please do not troll or attempt to intimidate me. I told you yesterday…. DYOR. I am not your personal analyst. Neither will I answer questions from those that allegedly post negativity for selfish gain or for special interest groups. It will lead to more questions to facilitate even more negativity to further their agendas.

You made your mind up yesterday that you will force me to give you an answer, otherwise the implication is an admittance on my part of ‘I made it all up.’ I’ll give you a hint… look back at the Bahamas media news since March. DYOR and then apologise.

You used to post politely but now appear somewhat irritated.

Have a nice day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS to All: It is not worth engaging directly with persons that spend 24x7 spouting anti-BPC messages, other than in exceptional circumstances. Why would those who admit to having no BPC shares spend so much time including weekends posting on this BB, unless for hidden agendas? GLA. Lots of news expected very soon.

ZagEgypt: Respectfully, you have failed to read my post properly.

If I sent you an invoice for $7m for posting such an insulting post, you would likely not pay it and spend it on other things including going on a politeness course. The $7m would not be due other than by mutual consent unless a court ordered otherwise.

The same applies for the $10m Stena bill, $7m of which BPC is disputing.

Have a nice evening

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Jono44: DYOR. I'm not your personal analyst. Not that you need one as you have no interest in BPC other than hoping it fails for reasons you have never shared with us. Why do you post here? DYOR.

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A record was broken yesterday to the lowest price for funding potentially being 0.1p!!! At least the person stating this has been honourable enough not to machine gun post and honest by admitting to having a 0.45p short.

Rebuttals re ex-CERP assets

Refer to 26/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/ry4n3kr and page 9 of the presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/03/25213812/bpc-update-presentation-march-21.pdf

1. At $60 PoO, BPC is making enough revenue to cover all opex with $3m/year free cashflow after $4m/ year G&A, excluding OTCs and Capex.

2. It has the $1m capex for incremental production programs. Success = 100 bopd = $1m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

3. It has the $2-3m capex to spud S2 Trinidad in May. Success = 200-300 bopd = $2-3m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

4. It has access to $2-3m capex to spud Suriname and do an EWT in July. Success = 500+ bopd = $2.5m/year free cash. (ROI 1 year)

5. New Biz development opportunities 100+ bopd $0.7m/year free cash. Capex needed $2.5m - $3m. (ROI 4 years). Can be partly financed with RBL.

BPC does NOT have the capex, unless there is a Farm-in involving a refund of some back-costs or RBL/infrastructure lending based on 2-5 above being successful, for ….

6. The Saffron 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 full-field development (2-3 years) 4,000+ bopd $25m+/year free cash. Capex needed <$60m. (ROI 2 years). IMO it can use RBL in a success case based on a CPR to spud the next Saffron one by one.

7. The infill drilling programs 200 - 400 bopd $3m - $4.5m/year net profit. Capex needed <$6m. (ROI 2 years)

Key point A: Banks love to lend for projects, whether oil production or a gold mine, that gives an ROI in 1-2 years. BPC does NOT need tens of millions now nor is it insolvent.

Rebuttals re Bahamas

8. Percy-1 went overbudget by $10m. True, but $7m is hotly disputed. This means the over budget was $3m plus whatever is finally agreed by mutual CONSENT which can be paid over many months. Part of this $7m could be used in the interim for points 1-7.

9. BPC does not have $40-60m funds to drill Percy-2. True, but I don’t care. It has 3 years to do so and self-fund from ex-CERP profits OR a farm-in/JV.

10. BPC has the funds to renew its licenses otherwise it wouldn’t have applied on 31/3/21. Pllleassseeee!

Key point B: BPC is NOT broke. It doesn’t need gazillions now, up-front. If points 1-7 are even partly a success, it will have cash to develop and ‘pay-as-you-go.’ How? Surplus cash, RBL, and infrastructure lending. And any farm-in/JV would be a mega bonus, but BPC doesn’t need it. Had the CERP merger not happened, BPC would be up the creek without a paddle. It isn’t and has plenty of time to get the best deal without having to plead to a major on bended knees.

The RNS this week will answer many questions. DYOR. Enjoy Sunday. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild

SvS: 'are we ok'?

I don't think we have ever had an issue with each other and have posted respectful disagreements. I note you mark BPC as a 'buy', and I assume this is only based on its ex-CERP assets potential, as you appear to be extremely negative about the Bahamas potential. This is not a criticism and certainly not worth re-posting the debates you have had with Tiburn, all of which I have read. I am not Tiburn's spokesperson, however in the year or so I have been on this BB, he posts opinions in good faith, based on original research and rarely got rattled. For some reason lost in posts from weeks ago, which i suggest is not worth analysing again, you managed to rattle him.

Without appearing to offer unsolicited advice, perhaps you ought to just switch off from the Bahamas part of the biz as if it is no longer a viable option. It will then exceed your expectations and happiness if something such as a JV materialises.

Fair suggestion?

I wish you well.

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ps..As for sarcasm, I have written my fair share on this BB since June 2020 to write a book on 'BB put downs and (alleged) troll management'. So I can't criticise its use.

Lots of news is expected on various fronts, perhaps an RNS as early as this morning. If not, early next week. As for the court case, this may appear as a separate news item here https://www.bpcplc.com/news/

The court case:

According to the generally anti-BPC Tribune, BPC no longer objects to a full hearing (source http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/apr/15/oil-exploration-fight-heading-full-trial/?news ) and Mr Smith QC appears surprisingly conciliatory almost implying his clients are doing BPC and its shareholders a favour to assist BPC in a potential farm-in. As of this morning the hearing has not been listed. (Cases list until middle May source https://www.bahamasjudiciary.com/courts/hearing-list/ )

IMO, it’s now a non-event and an internal Bahamas matter with one exception. BPC got involved in December because Smith QC attempted to injunct the drill which would have been dire for the company and its shareholders. Historically, approx 10 years ago, BPC entered into a ‘watertight’ contract with the then Gov. In Feb 2020, it received environmental approval from the current Gov. It was not for BPC to double-check the Gov Minister had the authority to sign without getting approval from obscure departments run by civil servants. There’s probably a department to ensure the safety of dolphins and turtles, but a Minister’s signature trumps the lot. When an Ambassador formally writes to another (eg, via a ‘note verbale’), s/he is officially writing on behalf of the State. The recipient would not say, ‘Are you sure you have the authority? Please get written confirmation from your Foreign Minister and Prime Minister.’

Let’s not forget the enviros left it to the last minute anyway in an attempt to allegedly destroy BPC. When the case is over, I hope BPC is awarded all its costs (not just $200k) and sues the enviros for losses incurred such as being forced to use the LOL hedge fund at punitive rates. Had the enviros NOT attempted an injunction, I would not be writing the above.

Expected imminent news:

1. How much, if any, is owed for the £3.75m LOL 188m shares Put option and how it will be paid.

2. Whether BPC and the Australian investor will exercise the additional £3.5m loan option, repayable by 31/12/23.

3. If agreement has been reached on the disputed $7m Percy-1 costs, and if so, the payment schedule over the coming months (or year)

4. Short-term funding / cashflow reconciliation.

5. Confirmation the Saffron 2 spud will happen in May.

6. An update on Suriname.

7. An update on the court process.

8. Technical information of the Percy-1 autopsy. A CPR?

9. And possibly…. Bahamas farm-in/JV news.

Exciting times.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Tiburn: Perhaps you should drop an email to BPC suggesting they emphasise in baby language to PIs what you covered in your last few analysis posts. If it impressed SvS, I'm even more impressed. (and apply for a consulting role at the same time!)

I suspect a new CPR will be issued for Percy-1 to get an independent perspective.

GL

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Rickierich: BPC costs at the last hearing was stated as $400k, plus since then 2 days of legal costs for a 2 day hearing that never materialised. I estimate $500k total. Just because only 200k is potentially secured, does not mean BPC cannot seek a court order (and enforcement) of the balance using local lawyers who are cheaper than a British QC.

GL

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Farm-in

Brilliant Tiburn post 12:10 yesterday.

He made the case how the CoS in the Bahamas’ licenses has DOUBLED from an affective compound 24% to 50%. IMO, a major will likely consider these odds favourably using a simple thought process….. ‘If we do a farm-in, it will cost us $xxx million. If our next drill is inconclusive, it will cost c$40m. If the next two are inconclusive it will cost another c$80m. If 4th time lucky (including Percy-1), it will earn us $x Billion minus FPSO capex, minus our OTC payment to BPC, $120m drilling costs and $xxxm appraisal wells. Result? A potential ROI in billions….’

Why wouldn’t a major do a farm-in with those odds? Is there a bidding war behind the scenes with an announcement after the court case and licence renewal? The latter is a simple legal formality with a watertight contract but may be delayed due to populist election posturing.

Court case

Somewhat irrelevant for the SP other than it opens the door for BPC to get their costs back and to possibly sue the enviros. Refer to https://www.bahamasjudiciary.com/courts/hearing-list/ . As at 1130 yesterday no case is listed for the next 4 weeks. IMO If by today, the enviros attempt to pay the $200k costs deposit assuming BPC’s lawyers accept it, it is likely BPC will attempt a short procedural non-listed hearing asking for the case to be struck out due to non-compliance of the original 30-day order.

LSE BB moderation

LSE allows the freedom of speech with minimum ‘censorship’. However, libel, racism, trolling, and share price manipulation (eg, pump and dump) are not permitted as there are legal consequences. I am not suggesting those recently removed did such things as I do not know the overall picture. It could have been simply for having a track record of causing disruption. I’m not going to mention names as people who have been removed cannot defend themselves so that would be unfair. Embarrassingly, I admit to one yellow card although I was not suspended. It was during heated discussions on the CERP merger, and my passion got one over me. I can’t remember whether it was for alleging a fellow poster was a self-proclaimed big shot with one vowel being miss typed, or the implied unnatural use of a gerbil to another commentator who annoyed me at the time. I did my penance and apologised to the latter.

LSE, BPC, and the authorities do monitor BBs as we are a public goldfish bowl for shareholder sentiment and open to potential manipulation. LSE has grown over the years and it now has a new COO who is making some positive changes to improve the user experience. I hope ADVFN, where almost anything goes, gets its act together ASAP.

DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps…I admit the My little pony abattoir joke was bad. As penance I will not post anything for the next hour.

'[my] true agenda isn't quite what I thought'

Eh? This implies I had a false or hidden agenda. I do NOT, I have stated my strategy several times since a few weeks ago, in total transparency. Look back at my previous posts! How many folks would do so? One of the reasons I do not normally post during trading hours (apart from time constraints) is in case a throw away comment can be construed as a downward trading signal/manipulation.

Also, my last post will create competition if others join in and trade a small portion of their shares as I (TRY to) do! Furthermore, i want everyone to be aware of Aquis trades. Not many do and rely on Google finance and LSE trades shown on this website which does not show the whole picture.

BTW my dog and pony 'PS' was actually a joke... in case someone wants to report me to the Korean RSPCA or French child cruelty hot-line. I'm in a good mood based on expected news, hence the levity.

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