Member Info for Starchild

I’m not BPC’s spin doctor as alleged.

I have only been a spin doctor once for the leader of North Korea. According to state run polls, his internal popularity soared from 99.8% to 99.99% following various articles and TV appearances where he was shown playing with kittens on state media. The key message, ‘our beloved leader is hard, but a softy at heart for his wonderful people.’ We were going to use puppies, but I recommended against this, in case any were eaten before the campaign ended.

Starchild

Deltalo: totally agree with you. CV very impressive. There is no way, IMO, a high caliber exec such as Dr Riley would join the BoD of a failing company and potentially embarrass himself. Quite the opposite. Within months, perhaps even weeks he may be able to sate he was a key player in BPC's corporate reset, resulting in a mega turnaround to BPC's Mcap and share-price.

As a side point, Dr Riley has a law degree, financial institutional connections (RBL?) and worked for super-majors. The latter could help in farm-out talks.

Starchild

[Don’t forget to vote. Time has probably run out to send a secure message to your provider and get it acknowledged, so I suggest you PHONE them today. It will only take +/- 5 mins]

BPC entered a £7.5m share issuance with Lombard in Dec /Jan. The guaranteed av price 2.3p. When the reconciliation was finalized in Feb, £375k was owed, however this was…. ‘entirely offset by an agreed rebate of advisory and fundraising fees paid by the Company, such that the net cash cost to the Company in respect of the full and final reconciliation for this tranche of funding has been nil’….. (Source 16/2 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xq63oqr )

BPC then exercised a Put option in Jan for another £3.75m/c$5m for 188m shares. Following the 2nd reconciliation in April, LOL are now owed $4m, minus….. ‘a cash rebate of advisory and fundraising fees paid by the Company previously, amounting to approximately £500k (source 23/4 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xzm547w ).

However, ….‘ the reconciliation amount able to be satisfied in cash or SHARES (or any COMBINATION thereof) at both parties' discretion, after which any obligations under the Put Option will be fully satisfied…..’ Result: LOL are owed $4m – £500k/$700k fees = c$3.3m net. It is due in June and can be part paid in shares by mutual consent.

Opinion

Put simply, BPC received $5m and now must repay c$3.3m in June. Result: BPC has $1.7m more than it started with. Put another way, had BPC not exercised the Put, it would have $1.7m less in the bank today.

Looking at this another way, had the Put not been exercised, and $1.7m/£1.2m added to the Open Offer or Placing NOW at 0.35p, it would have cost 343m shares @0.35p.

Conclusions:

1. Eytan (CEO designate) stated very frankly the deal was bad, with the caveat BPC had little choice at the time based on the perfect storm caused by Covid and the enviros’ attempted injunction.

2. Whether or not the OO and II placing is undersubscribed, the outstanding debt of $3.3m can be retired by BPC issuing shares to LOL, subject to mutual consent. This means BPC will have saved $3.3m in cash out of the c$14m owed for legacy debts.

3. The same applies to Stena for +/- $10m when all disputes are resolved.

Key argument: If the OO has >25% acceptance it will exceed my expectations. But, if the OO AND Placing are undersubscribed, less shares will be issued. This gives room to use additional shares to pay towards LOL and Stena debts. Even if fully subscribed some new shares could still be issued. In either scenario, cash will be conserved, which will trigger the corporate reset and fund the next phase of organic growth. With a stronger balance sheet, little debt, doors could open for reserve-based lending, with less reliance on more expensive dilutive ones.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

[reformatted and reposted as my last post was incoherent due to auto edits. Sorry]

Simple00’s post Monday was very good. Why did they feel compelled to issue an RNS under the circumstances? Strange when a company appears ‘forced’ to issue an RNS pre-empting a future positive RNS.

I am aware complaints have been made due to their alleged lack of moderators’ oversight. It is also alleged almost anything goes on their BBs including alleged trolling, share manipulation and ra61st comments. What if they get fined or have their wings clipped by the authorities? What happens to future profit? Will advertisers pull out? If I was an advertiser I wouldn’t want to be associated with the stuff they allow under freedom of speech. At least LSE BBs are moderated to, I believe, a greater extent. Although not a PLC (hence I am not ramping them) , they recently appointed a COO to move the company forward in competition to ADF+N.

The SP more than doubled since I bought at 32.5p in February. I have now sold. For the record I’m not into CFD’s or shorting. Look back at my previous posts. I tend to be upbeat in companies I invest in with heavy research I or my staff undertake.

However I could be wrong and there could be a bid in progress…..so DYOR and don’t use this post as a basis for your decision.

IMHO: STRONG SELL

GL folks.

Starchild

Simple00’s post Monday was very good. Why did they feel compelled to issue an RNS under the circumstances? Strange when a company appears ‘forced’ to issue an RNS pre-empting a future positive RNS. I am aware complaints have been made due to their alleged lack of moderators’ oversight. It is also alleged almost anything goes on their BBs including alleged trolling, share manipulation and ****** comments. What if they get fined or have their wings clipped by the authorities? What happens to future profit? Will advertisers pull out? If I was an advertiser I wouldn’t want to be associated with the stuff they allow under freedom of speech. At least LSE BBs are moderated properly, I believe, to a greater professional extent. Although not a PLC (hence I am not ramping them) , LSE recently appointed a COO to move the company forward in competition to ADFVN. Opinion? The SP more than doubled since I bought at 32.5p in February. I have now sold. For the record I’m not into CFD’s or shorting. Look back at my previous posts. I tend to be upbeat in companies I invest in with heavy research I or my staff undertake. However I could be wrong and there could be a bid in progress…..so DYOR and don’t use this post as a basis for your decision. IMHO: STRONG SELL GL folks. Starchild xx

Jono44: I had to read your post 3 times out of shock as you complimented me. Have you by any chance left the 'dark-side' and joined the pro-BPC, 'Jedi children of light?'

If so, I will christen you as O-BPC-1-KENOBI

Starchild

Robert Riley's CV is impressive. Refer to intel online on his leadership skills and achievements.

If I was offered $$$lots to join any BoD in any company that's a sinking ship, I would decline. I therefore believe this is a VERY positive step.

The 2nd RNS confirms the BoD's /senior management commitment and confidence, by taking part in the Open Offer and placement.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

An important PS: Don’t forget to vote. As time has probably run out out to send a secure message to your provider and get it acknowledged, I suggest you PHONE them today. It will only take +/- 5 mins. I strongly recommend voting FOR all EGM resolutions, so BPC's reset can happen sooner rather than later.

JBriggs/Carlif, It is so sad, when LTHs attack other LTHs. The shorters and anti-BPC crowed love this.

I have done my best by creating informed debate. I'm sorry you feel this way.

Have a good day

Starchild

Bohemia: please back your assumptions with links/evidence. Were did you get $17m from?

Re the other post: I do not profess to know better than institutional investors nor speak on their behalf. I studied several recent RNSs and put forward possible permutations to a funding solution..... for people who read my posts to make their own decision while DYOR . This will be totally irrelevant if £5m minimum is raised in the OO/II Placement. Rather than speed reading posts and criticising, I suggest referring to the arguments and evidence presented.

Starchild

Refer to the Auctus 27/4 report and recent RNSs as reference points, as I had to compress paras. Source https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf

1. ‘We have set our new target of 1.20p’…… [This is c400% more than today’s SP. It excludes possible farm-in and future SWP potential]

2. BPC has ~c$10m cash (inc ~$3m from the convertible committed but yet to be received). The OO/II would add c$10m…….cash from production ~$3m, …total resources of $23 m. This is enough to fund S2 and Suriname of <$4m, the current liabilities of $10-14m for Bahamas…and $4 m to LO. In a success case at S2 and Suriname, BPC will probably be able to draw the remaining £10m/$14m of its convertible and access further debt to fund $9-14m follow-on dev.

3. BPC currently has c$15m cash (inclusive of the funds to be made available on 28/2/21 under the Facility). (Source 16/2 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xq63oqr ) [$15m minus £2m/$2.8m Bizzell funds which were not made available on 28/2 = $12.2m]

4. Cash on hand of c$13m (as at 1/3/21, including convertible); anticipated additional requirement in 2021/22 of $25 - $40m, BPC expects to more than cover the difference from various potential funding sources. (Source 24/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xeq3lnx )

5. These additional unbudgeted items have added c$10m of cost. ….. work is ongoing to agree the final amounts (including some […..$7m…..] disputed amounts and to finalise a schedule for those payments over the coming MONTHS.’ (Source 24/3 RNS above.)

6. BPC is making c250k/month free cash, pre capex/debt/OTC from ops. ($3m/yr @ $60 PoO)

Opinion

(a) Compare point 2 ($10m in the bank), to the other points. $3m has disappeared!!! Either this has been paid for Percy-1 not in dispute, thus lowering the $10/$14m debt, or has been budgeted/paid for S2.

(b) I believe the OO will be undersubscribed. Anything > 25% will exceed my expectations. If the II placing is same, BPC will issue LESS shares for the OO/IIs and can use the difference to part-pay suppliers/debt. This will save cash. It could be LOL or S2 costs. It is unlikely to be Stena, but if it is, the disputed $7m when resolved will be paid over a period of months (refer to RNS above), or shares to save cash.

(c) S2 is not about 200-300b/day. It’s to de-risk 11mboe and open the door to RBL and pre-pay. (refer to Auctus)

Key point: IMO there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. And a path to a solution following the company reset. Even if Auctus 1.2p reNav is out by 50% short/medium term. An SP of 0.6p is almost double today’s SP.

I urge all holders, despite being upset, to vote FOR the EGM so BPC can move forward. IMO, it is pointless withholding votes out of anger.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Oldtrader2: I believe the deadline was yesterday noon, however check with your provider. If you have a trading platform, the offer may appear as a corporate action or separate entry for the shares in question with an action link. If not, (eg, if you have paper certificates) check with Link by phone https://www.bpcplc.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information/

GL

Starchild

Had I been appointed as BPC’s CEO 10+ years ago, I would have done the following:

Plan A
• Launch a PLC using an IPO
• Base the company in a no or low tax jurisdiction
• Acquire rights to explore Bahamian waters
• Spend 10s of millions getting historical data, and do 2D and 3D
• It would cost $100m to drill, so I’d seek a farm-in partner. Result: dilution at the asset level.
• Drill Percy-1 or go to plan B

Plan B
• If no farm-in partner (or if all offers derisory), I would self-drill.
• Good news: drill costs have plummeted
• Bad news: we only have $1m and need a lot more, so….
• I would do a rights issue at 2p to existing shareholders and a mutual fund soon after
• I would get external financing by issuing more shares. Result: dilution at the share level.
• I would continue to seek a farm-in partner
• But….a global pandemic strikes. So, I am forced to do plan C.

Plan C
• During the pandemic, I would continue to seek a farm-in partner
• I would offer to merge with CERP and issue shares to do so. Result: dilution at the share level but the Bahamas result is hedged
• Knowing offshore drill operators are going broke, I’d negotiate a superb deal. I would even offer 10% of the Percy-1 asset for $10m to save Capex.
• So far so good. We’re now on plan D

Plan D
• I would continue to seek a farm-in partner
• I would raise finance when needed in various waves at 2p+
• I wouldn’t give a damn about day-traders whining on BBs about overhangs
• I would time the last funding (inc cash for ex-CERP dev) a few weeks before spud as the SP will soar (See PRD!)
• But a 3rd Covid wave hits and a bunch of enviros attempt to injunct my drill. Funding withdrawn, so….

Plan E
• I would borrow from a hedge fund as a last resort at 2p even with 15% guarantee.
• Drill done. Result: WPS found but non commercial
• The cost is $10m over-budget + $4m owed to the hedge fund
• I would negotiate the price down as it wasn’t BPC’s fault a metal bar fell down the bleedin’ hole.

Plan F
• I would concentrate on Trinidad, but the c$10m has left a $ hole.
• I would continue to seek a farm-in partner and open a data room. If farm-in partners are interested we would keep silent until after license renewal and court case.
• I would do a deal with Bizzell
• DESPITE DOING VERY LITTLE WRONG, I would offer to resign and offer Bizzell be part of the BoD subject to its continued funding
• The resignation offer is refused as I have done very little wrong and anyway, I’m needed for the imminent farm-in discussions as I know the key players many years
• Bizzell agree to fund at 0.8p as long as an open offer and placement is done to pay off $10m legacy debts.
• This is where we are today, with a potentially huge upside tomorrow.

I own several companies and can honestly state, there is very little I would have done differently. But, what would you have done differently if you were king?

GLA

Starchild
https://www.ls

Key timelines of expected news events. Most will have a bearing on the share-price:

May

• Tomorrow morning Monday 10/5: last chance to take part in the open offer. [Suggestion: take professional advice]

• Thursday 13/5 16:35 RNS announcement of the result of the Open Offer and the launch of the Placing

• Friday 14/5 07:00 RNS announcement of the results of the Placing

• Saturday 15/5 11:00 latest time and date for filing of proxies for the Extraordinary General Meeting. [DON’T FORGET TO VOTE! Refer to my previous posts]

• Monday 17/5 11:00 Extraordinary General Meeting. Results will follow via RNS later that day probably +/- 14:00.

• 24/5 Saffron 2 Spud announcement from previous day Trinidad time (UK Sunday evening)

By end of June (IMO)

• S2 spud interim results

• Detailed Bahamas Percy-1 autopsy (Eytan presentation, ‘4-6 weeks from now’)

• Update on Suriname spud

• Final Percy-1 costs as negotiated with suppliers

• Update on general funding needs

• Update on next steps in Trinidad exploration and production

• Update on the EA court process

• Y/E 2020 audited accounts including material events since 31/12/20 as at publication date

Summer 2021 (IMO)

• S2 full results

• Possible commencement of legal action against the enviros for attempting an injunction which cost BPC and its shareholders millions, while allegedly harassing suppliers (LOL and Lloyds)

• Confirmation Bahamas licenses have been renewed from 1/7/21 for 3 years……

• …..which could open the door to a farm-in announcement by a major player or a consortia of smaller ones to share the risk/reward. Will BPC get a percentage of the $140m spent and/or free Percy-2 and 3 drill(s) in 2022/3?

Background info for DYOR

I suggest all newbies watch two recent presentations by Eytan Uliel, CEO designate.

• 29/4/21 company presentation (31 mins) https://youtu.be/oEl4lw107OA

• 6/5/21 follow up QA interview (38 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97B0ZuskdrI

• Read the 5 page Auctus 27/4/21 pro-analyst’s report: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf

Warning

A small group, some who admit to shorting BPC, bombard negativity on this BB 24x7. Some resort to name calling and trolling while allegedly ‘shorting and distorting’. Be warned, so always DYOR.

Personal objectives

Above IMHO. GL2A real shareholders and new ones who will join us on Thursday evening. JFTR, I plan to subscribe to the II placing. I now see BPC as 3 investments: Shares pre Percy-1 result are ‘parked’. The ones purchased between 8/2/21 and the Open Offer should increase. The ones taken in the OO and II placing should soar. But that’s just my opinion and I could be wrong. So, always DYOR DYOR DYOR.

Eyt…ooops…. I mean Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps…I am NOT Eytan, Leo K, nor Leo’s wife.

Bohemia: respectfully your argument is absolutely flawed.

Assuming $60 PoO... 475boe/day x 360 days x $40 net profit per bboe = $6.85m (BPC has stated it cost $20/b in expenses to extract onshore Trinidad but they are trying to improve this figure)

Less $4m G+A opex, excluding capex (assuming none of the $20/b extraction costs are included in some of the G&A) leaves just under $3m/year cash.

This is a key USP in everything, ie we are generating cash daily, otherwise we would have been worse off after the CERP merger having to subsidise payroll/G&A etc. This is NOT the case.

DYOR. GL

Starchild

DaProphet: funny!

I am neither Eytan nor Leo (as suggested a few weeks ago). My posts tend to be written in British English with a slight twist based on where I live, as opposed to being 'corrupted' with Australian or Dutch lingo. in fact, if I was Texan, my posts would need deciphering.

Interesting trivia: the expression 'shark biscuit' is Aussie slang for a small child paddling in the sea.

GL

Starchild

The next 10 days will be pivotal in BPC’s reset.

It is important to vote before the EGM deadline in a few days. I strongly recommend voting FOR all 5 resolutions. It is simple and will takes less than 5 mins. Either logon and contact your provider via secure message or phone them. For admin advice contact Link Services https://www.bpcplc.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information/

Take independent professional advice whether to participate in the Open Offer.

Some HNWIs / IIs reading this BB for the first time will be doing due dili. It is possible they have been pre-selected as part of an IPO Pathfinder and have been invited to give opinion before the II placing (this) Thursday 13/5 1635. A few pointers:

I suggest you watch two very recent presentations by Eytan Uliel, CEO designate.

• 29/4/21 company presentation (31 mins) https://youtu.be/oEl4lw107OA

• 6/5/21 follow up QA interview (38 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97B0ZuskdrI

• Read the 5 page Auctus 27/4/21 pro-analyst’s report: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf

Key points (IMO)

1. There’s a small group on this BB that machine gun post negativity 24x7. Some admit to shorting, others are ex-CERP and BPC holders who appear to be doing their best to hurt the company while trolling and intimidating others.

2. BPC is sitting on c$85m in Trinidad tax losses. This is potentially worth c$25m net which is more than BPC’s Mcap today. In theory, a tax loss can be monetised by moving assets and leaving corporate shells only holding those tax credits. It could be of interest to other Trinidad HC companies making a profit. I am not suggesting BPC will do this, as keeping them will increase the potential net ROI and annual free cash.

3. BPC is currently making $3m/year ($60 PoO) in free cash after $4m annual G&A in opex, pre capex. BPC’s current output is 450-500boe/day and aims for 2500/day in 7 months.

4. BPC will spud Saffron 2 in 2 weeks, subject to the EGM and successful placing. The additional potential 200-300/boe day could add 50% to current production. This in itself is not a big deal, however it will help to de-risk the whole SW Trinidad peninsula which is potentially sitting on 230mboe. (A small North Sea oil field?)

5. Despite the BoD’s belief the asset can be monetized based on $140m spent, the market currently values a potential Bahamas farm-in as zilch.

6. BPC’s current SP/Mcap only takes into account today’s production. Any future news, even slightly positive is pure up-side.

All IMHO. Always DYOR. GL2A real shareholders and those about to be.

BTW: I have been an LTH since 2014 with 10s of millions of shares. Most purchased after the Bahamas non-commercial result on 8/2/21.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: re some comments yesterday, I am not UNCAS nor am or have been anyone else on this BB

Karlci: excellent summary.

We will not know how many shares Eytan has, because https://www.bpcplc.com/investor-relations/major-shareholders/ (bottom) only disclosed the exec BoD as of 31/12/20. I have more shares than all the BoD except Simon, which today i can assure you is not a boast.

A key point in today's presentation which you brought up, is the $85m tax loss c/f.

I have been banging this drum for weeks. Today's BPC Mcap is worth LESS than its Trinidad c$25m NET tax deduction credits. If push came to shove, BPC could in theory sell its Trinidad subsidiaries after stripping out their assets and moving them to a new company , and any Trinidad based oil company making a profit would benefit by c$25m purely by using the empty corporate shells.

Starchild

Bohemia: I respect you because you have been honest in disclosing you have been shorting BPC, yet you do not bombard negativity on this BB to cheer lead your punt. Others do 24x7, probably in desperation as they have little working capital and need to profit and then move onto the next target. This shows to me you are honourable.

However I feel your last post is VERY unfair.

To accuse the BoD of lying is a serious accusation. A lot happened in December when on 14/12 BPC announced the LOL facility. Simply put, the very bad LOL option, may have been far superior to others on the table had, for example, Bizzells asked for a lower price from 2.5p or lowered the virtual credit line in the middle of the enviros' threatened injunction, Rainbow Warrior heading to the Canaries and a new Covid wave.

I suggest you delete it, but it's up to you

Starchild

SvS: If I could have given TEN recommends to your post below (quite rare!) i would have done so!

Starchild

xxx

I felt today's QA follow up presentation was again frank and informative. Eytan answered some difficult questions after listening to shareholders.

Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97B0ZuskdrI

Starchild