Member Info for Starchild

Bohemia: respectfully, your post casting doubts on the £2m Bizzell advance is irrelevant. I believe we both agree, following the OO/Placing (c$10m cash), CEG has $20m in the bank minus £2m Bizzell (if it hasn't been advanced this week as promised), minus $3m for the S2 and Suriname spuds. This leaves as a worst case scenario of approx $14m in cash reserves. Of this, $4m is due to LOL in June, leaving $10m.

CEG does NOT need this $10m until it settles with Stena et al for legacy Percy-1 costs. The bills amount to $14m although $7m is disputed. If there's an amicable settlement involving all or some shares, CEG will potentially not pay a penny and keep $10m in the bank for development of ex-Cerp assets. If this goes to court, it will take several months at least, potentially well into 2022.

I am not suggesting CEG gambles winning the court case (in the unlikely event it ends up in court), by using monies it may be ordered to pay. That would be as daft as owing a disputed tax bill to HMRC for £1m, and using cash reserves in a casino hoping it will create winnings to pay the HMRC debt if the tribunal rules against . However the point I am making is CEG does NOT need Bizzell's £2m cash now and as such your post is I believe, mute.

Starchild

Following the company reset, imagine CEG was a newly launched IPO with 800m shares @3.5p. A £28m Mcap start-up which acquired all BPC and CERP assets.

Assets:
1. An experienced work force

2. Cash in the bank following OO/Placing, $20m (?) less $3m S2/Suriname spuds (source
https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf )

3. 450-500boed production resulting in $3m/yr cashflow (@$60 PoO)

4. Trinidad potential: a 230mboe North Sea size oil field in the SWP

5. Suriname potential

6. Bahamas farm-in potential and monetization of BPC’s $150m spent to-date

7. Uruguay potential

8. Potential lawsuits against the Enviros and their backers

Liabilities
9. Lol $4m

10. Stena $14m ($7m disputed, so I assume $10m)

Issues
11. Capital requirements for expansion

12. If the Bahamas Gov declines 3-year renewal

Would I invest in such an IPO? Yes, and I did in the OO and placing.

Why? I see various value triggers for upside with spread risks.

So why is CEG’s Mcap down to £20m? IMO there are two gorillas in the room scaring investors. Not so much whether S2 is a success as it’s not a make-or-break spud on par with Percy-1. However, S2 is a proof of concept that unlocks access to funding for future spuds and production, possibly with a non-dilutive RBL.

The key uncertainties revolve around (a) CEG’s net cash position. This will be resolved when a Stena deal is announced. And (b) the Percy-1 autopsy meeting expectations and license renewal approval.

This will be a key value trigger when clarified. Why? Pre-CERP merger when BPC was a one trick pony its MCap fluctuated between £8m (2017) to £200m+ at various times over the last 11 years. On 9/8/18, a high of 7.45p was reached. It was when a major paid $1m for exclusivity to the data room. On that day, 2.1B BPC shares @7.45p created a Mcap of £156m. PoO was $70.

Key point: just because Percy-1 was not a commercial success, does not mean Percy-2 or 3 will not be. We await the autopsy for clues. North Sea and Guyana’s spectacular successes began as failures.

Anyone that invested in Dec 2017 @0.45p would have got a 16x bagger had they sold 9 months later. So, could this happen again if a farm-in is announced? The market currently values the chances as zero as reflected in today’s MCap which absurdly is less than CERP’s £24m merger value. Let’s not forget Uruguay could possibly be leveraged…. ‘Agree to Bahamas farm-in including some upfront cash re $150m spent, and CEG will self-fund Uru-1, but you can own a small Uru-1 chunk free’….

Even if a farm-in doesn’t happen, CEG has potential value triggers in Trinidad and Suriname, which prior to the CERP merger in Aug 2020 it did not have.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: some informative posts yesterday on LGO/CERP’s ancient history. Even from those that I occasionally have handbag fights with. Thank yo

Thebhoys: I'm sorry you found my billionaire joke offensive. When i posted yesterday afternoon (which is rare), I noticed a post implying I'm a stupid investor or a millionaire that has spare money to burn. The post has since been deleted so my 'joke' this morning probably made no sense. FTR, I did not report the post. Frankly i do not have the time to read this BB in real time and tend to do so first thing in the morning.

GL

Starchild
ps.. you owe me £10. I'll start a slate for you and if it helps, your slate can eventually be paid in CEG shares based on the SP at the time/date of the derogatory comment.

There was an interesting article in the Times yesterday entitled. ‘Overseas territories to be left stranded by G7 tax reforms’. Although it didn’t place the Bahamas in the top 10 at-risk jurisdictions it did paint an overall bleak picture. Refer to http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/jun/07/bahamas-cant-be-burnt-over-15-corporate-taxes/ how this may eventually affect the Bahamas where financial services account for the 2nd highest contribution to GDP after tourism.

First a devastating hurricane, then Covid, now this. If the government declines to renew CEG’s license on technicalities it will be faced with a lawsuit all the way to the Privy Counsel in London. The Gov will be wise to renew the license on 1/7/21 for 3 years. If renewed and CEG cannot find a JV partner or drill in 3 years, the license will be forfeited anyway without the Gov facing a lawsuit nor the opposition party making mileage of the matter so close to a general election. If though oil is found the royalties will be substantial to an economy facing even more headwind.

As a separate matter, Monecor dumping c40m shares (400m pre consolidation) explains the drop, probably compounded by auto stop/losses. Monecor UK and Europe use a trading name of ETX Capital which is a big player in CFDs. The group was recently acquired by Swiss based Guru capital. It is possible Monecor clients (or a major client) leveraged CEG shares ‘long’ and dumped the shares bought in the Placing, to exit the bet last week.

However, three key results if positive will please the market: the Saffron 2 spud, Bahamas license renewal, and the Percy-1 autopsy. If all 3 meet expectations, the SP should logically increase substantially which in turn could help resolve the Stena payment dispute using shares. This would leave CEG with an additional $7-10m in cash. I’d be very pleased if it was at or near the 8p per-share Bizzell funding bar level.

On the subject of funding, I figured if I trademarked the Starchild name and charged one pound when used on this BB, (£10 when used disparagingly) I’d recoup a chunk of my CEG losses. BTW I’m not a millionaire, I’m a billionaire. As long as converted from Vietnamese Dongs, Colombian Pesos or Iranian Rials, to get the Pounds Sterling total.

Brent PoO approaching $73, WTI now over $70

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Jono44: before criticising, please get the facts right. I will post here at the weekend (perhaps before) on the ADVFN matter. An ongoing campaign against that organisation is to force changes to its working practices. Their lack of proper moderation on their 'wild west' BBs is subject to several ongoing enquiries and complaints. We have already been partially successful.

Starchild

“We are sticking with the licences in the Bahamas. We have submitted all paperwork for that, and we are now waiting on the government to respond,” [CEO comment in exclusive interview yesterday]

Source https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/challenger-energy-sets-sights-on-second-exploration-well-offshore-bahamas/2-1-1020869

Opinion:

1. CEG is like a cow farm.

2. The shorters and manipulators on this BB are trying to make a case the cows are un-producing, so it’s best to shoot them and turn them into burgers.

3. To create even more discord and to manipulate market sentiment further, some are even alleging the cows are suffering from mad cow disease and after being culled should just be incinerated.

4. But what has been forgotten is the farm is potentially sitting on a yet to be discovered gold mine……

5. …..Hence a partner is being sought subject to the Percy-1 autopsy and license renewal.


All said and done, I fully agree our immediate focus should be on the Saffron 2 spud. Refer to my previous post for a list of expected news.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: IMO the delayed 2020 y/e accounts is neither good news, bad news, nor a red flag. Today there are too many balls in the air which should land by September. The biggest ball being the final Stena bill. CEG also needs a new finance director to sign them off.

JC-130: a few thoughts..

CEG believes a farm-out is possible and has stated so in several RNSs. Clearly it is not imminent otherwise there wouldn't have been the need to do the OO/Placing and Bizzell would have been happy to lend at the 0.8p (currently 8p) funding bar a few weeks ago.

Practically, for a drill that deep to be fully analyzed for the data room interested parties would access as part of due diligence, takes around 6 months. (an oil expert informed me). We should get the results of the Percy-1 autopsy in June.

In CEG's case there is a political complication. The Bahamas Gov has not formally renewed the exploration license for 3 years yet. This is due 1/7/21.

It is true the well was plugged and abandoned, but this would have happened regardless. BPC stated it was an exploration well with no intent to use it for eventual production.

Finally, it took several attempts to find oil in the North Sea and Guyana.

Caveat: I am not suggesting a farm-in WILL happen. It depends on the above. Those who wish to see CEG fail or are attempting to lower the SP for trading purposes, who bombard negativity on this BB, will state it will never happen.

GL

Starchild

I have listed my best guesses of expected news and its impact to CEG’s SP. ‘H’ (high), ‘M’ (medium), commentary in [ ]. Updated and renumbered for newbies.

By end June

1. (H VIP) S2 spud interim results (in 2 stages)

2. (H VIP) Detailed Percy-1 autopsy [Connected to 15, Gov renewal. If there’s a good case for further drills, SP should increase. The market currently values this as zero, with the $150m spent worth zilch].

3. (H VIP) Final Bahamas costs. [Excluding $4m to LOL, if the legacy bills total <$10m it will be good. If some debt is paid in shares, it depends at what price. Positive: more cash left. Negative: some dilution]

4. (M) Suriname spud update

5. (M or H) Funding availability vs needs [See 8, 10]

6. (M) What’s next in T+T

7. (M) EA court hearing update

8. (M) Y/E 2020 accounts including events since 31/12/20 [Connected to 3, 5. We all expect a MEGA loss. Material events since, may or may not meet expectations. T+T 2019 tax losses C/F were $85m c$25m net. 2020???]

Summer

10. (H) July 31: end date for Bizzell 8p funding option.

11. (H) Saffron 2 full results. CPR for RBL?

12. (H) Suriname spud> interim results> full results> CPR for RBL?

13. (H) Enviro’s court case 2-3 days. [+/- 2 weeks for judgement. Key will be the summing up. If the court LAMBASTS the Enviros’ conduct and implies malice, more chance of 14 happening]

14. (M) Possible legal action against the enviros for attempting an injunction which cost CEG and its shareholders millions, while allegedly harassing suppliers (LOL and Lloyds)

15. (H) Confirmation Bahamas licenses renewed from 1/7/21 for 3 years [See 2, 16]

16. (H) …..which could open the door to a farm-in 4th qtr, with a major or a consortia of smaller ones to share the risk/reward. Will CEG get some of the c$150m spent and/or free Percy-2/3 drill(s)? [If a free drill, SP should substantially increase. If up-front cash the SP should soar. The Mcap could increase by at least double the value of the cash, as CEG could M&A or self-fund Uruguay].

17. (M) Uruguay update. Can this be leveraged to sweeten a Bahamas deal? [If a farm-in, SP should increase immediately and soar leading to news flow re a URU-1 spud].

18. (M) PoO. [High impact if stuck at <$55/b or >$75/b]

19. (M) Related to PRD RNS: how is the CEG/PRD JV for CO2 progressing?

Autumn

30. (H) Bahamas Farm-in? [Connected to 2, 15, 16, and possibly 17. Most small AIM energy companies do not have points 16, 17. On 21/1/21 BPC’s Mcap peaked @ £110m (2.35p x 4.7B). Had there not been the LOL overhang made worse by the enviros, pro analysts believed the SP/Mcap could have been double that. If a farm-in announced, even if CEG only owns 25% of the asset, by how much will the SP/MCap soar? Today the market values this as ZERO.]

Short-term high impact news are ‘VIP’ points 1-3 above.

IMHO. DYOR. Proposed updates welcome. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

‘…..Exxon Mobil is prioritising near-term capital spend on the most advantaged assets with the lowest cost of supply in the portfolio including developments in Guyana, Brazil and the U.S. Permian Basin. The sale appears to be a part of a shift in the company’s West Africa strategy, with Savannah Energy having announced on Wednesday that it is in talks with Exxon to acquire its assets in Chad and Cameroon….’ Source investing.com > https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/exxon-surrenders-interest-in-ghanas-offshore-oil-block/

I found yesterday’s article interesting because Exxon’s change in policy MAY be advantageous to CEG for a potential farm-in. One of the key selling points in CEG’s Bahamas value proposition is how close its acreage is to US infrastructure. This has been stated on various slides/presentations.

Exploration and appraisal wells are easier to manage and cheaper than West Africa or the Falklands. Furthermore, in the event of a Bahamas commercial find, the use of FPSO’s vs oil platforms has several advantages compared to geographic locations far from the beaten track in ultra-deep sea locations thousands of miles away from refineries.

Although our current focus is on Trinidad, let’s not forget a Percy-1 autopsy that meets expectations, subject to Gov license renewal on 1 July, may help CEG monetize some of the $150m invested to-date. I hope there’s a queue of potential farm-in partners in Gneiss’ data room based on the potential ROI. The market currently values this potential as ZERO.

If a farm-in materialises involving a cash payment towards CEG back costs, it is possible we will have $$$ towards drilling Uruguay, capex to develop Trinidad/Suriname and opportunities to leverage M&A.

IMHO. DYOR. Enjoy Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: It is pointless LTHs airing their frustrations against other LTHs with name calling, insults or doubting their integrity and motives. For every person that posts, there’s probably 50 that occasionally read our commentary. This forum is a goldfish bowl. There’s enough shorters and ex-holders bombarding negativity. Why help them in their aims?

Tooldforthat: Yes it's good CEG appears to be planning to be more prolific in updating holders in future. RNS today https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/challenger_energy_group/news/rns/story/ryzp23w

Next S2 update is probably in just over a week and the final one +/- a week after that. This is consistent with a 25-30 day spud that began on 23/5.

Starchild

IMO the reason the current SP is below the OO/Placing is simply OVERHANG. Analysis:

1. There are rumours that those who took part in the placing got some type of ‘wholesale’ or ‘bucket-shop’ discount of 0.28p. I took part in the placing and no discount was offered. It would have been disclosed and the maths of the money raised vs shares issued gives a SP of 0.35p. Read the 20/5 results RNS with a calculator.

2. The above also applies to Bizzell. They lent REAL money and got paid that money in full including interest with shares at 0.35p. It would be daft to sell below that level, especially as Bizzell has the funding bar set to 8p. Note, Stephen Bizzell is now on the BoD. If he sold or bought just one share from his personal holdings, it would have to be RNSd.

3. It is unlikely anyone who took part in the OO/Placing would sell below 3.5p unless they’ve lost patience and executed a stop/loss.

4. Frustrated holders and some LTHs have disclosed on this BB they’ve called it a day. This is their right.

5. Shore-Capital and GNEISS et al received substantial FEE shares. Fees/commissions tend to be very profitable compared to consultancy fees or a loan repayment (see point 2). An estate agent can sell a £1m house and make £25,000 with <40 hours work. GNEISS earned substantial fees for book-running the recent placing and the LOL deal.

Key conclusion: IMO the overhang has been caused to a lesser degree by points 3 and 4. But to a greater degree by point 5. I believe part of GNEISS’ participation in subscribing with 235m shares, is in practice FREE for FEE commission shares to compensate GNEISS et al for ‘refunding’ CEG the LOL commissions x 2 which total about the same amount. I am not suggesting anything unethical, merely attempting to opine on the maths of the overhang.

As a separate matter, refer to https://www.cegplc.com/operations/trinidad/south-west-peninsula-swp-exploration/ as it shows the medium risk/lesser reward and high risk/higher reward plays in the SWP including the 9 Saffron lookalikes.

IMO Saffron 2 will help de-risk and fund other plays in the region, unless S2 is a complete failure. If partially successful and even if the result is less than 200boe/day, I would still consider it a proven proof of concept, subject to estimated reserves, daily production and the updated ROI formula which PoO will affect. In the ideal scenario, anything >200boe/day will be excellent and CEG can eventually RBL this.

Bottom line: IMO, overhang will end soon and the SP should rise pending S2 result. In the meantime, shorters and anti-CEG posters playing on frustrations will continue to gloat. KARMA.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: Suriname EOG Summit presentation by Randolph Hisc0ck CEG’s Biz Dev Director slides: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/06/02072817/SEOG_June212021.pdf

Recent anti-CEG posts state or imply two key points to seed doubt and to protect some shorting positions.

1. Leo Koot and the CERP BoD wanted to merge with BPC (now CEG) because they knew Saffron 1 was a failure.

This I believe is a serious and wrongful allegation. It implies the CERP BoD misled shareholders in 1Q 2020 and that S1 RNSs were a work of fiction. It also means the Trinidad drilling partner that offered to JV at 75%-25% (then switch to 25% -75% after its costs recouped) got hoodwinked. By default, it also means BPC and its advisors did not do pre-merger due diligence properly when analysing S1 data/results and they too got duped. Furthermore, by inference, the BPC BoD continued to believe S1 was a success (and S2’s huge potential), and rather absurdly told the JV partner to go-away soon after merger. Key point: To publicly attempt to destroy someone’s reputation to financially benefit is about the lowest someone could go on a public forum.

2. CEG does not have funding and will resort to another placing

This is extremely unlikely as stated by the company recently. A successful S2 will open the door to RBL at $1-2m/mboe. (refer to Tiburn's recent posts). Bizzell has a mechanism in place for c£10m in funding @ 8p. How and at what price (potentially with shares) the legacy Stena debt will be negotiated and paid will make a difference.

Refer to the Auctus report https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf I quote…..

‘….In a success case at Saffron #2, we expect BPC will be able to access further funding including the remaining £10 mm/US$14 mm of its convertible facility and more debt.

Drawing the entire residual amount of the existing convertible loan would fund the US$9-14 mm follow-on development programme, being:
- US$7-12m for a 5-9 well programme in 2H21 to reach 1,000-1,500 bbl/d production from the field at YE21; and
- U$2m for a 4 well programme to take Suriname production to 100 bbl/d by YE21.

Additional further funding unlocked by a success at Saffron would fund additional activities including:
- Drilling two exploration wells on the SWT peninsula in Trinidad; and
- Drilling infill wells on the producing fields in Trinidad. ….. ‘ [end quote]

Key points: Steven Bizzell joining the CEG BoD was not out of fear that his company is currently owed £2.5m. This is peanuts. His participation is with a view that the full £10m will be advanced otherwise there is no point having the hassle and legal responsibility of being a BoD member. Even if RBL is not immediately available (or a game changing Bahamas Farm-in), the Bizzell facility is a useful option as it is not a traditional CLN. It is an interest-bearing loan, secured by shares of which a maximum of half can be converted in future. At 8p or more, I can live with that. And its good PoO is on the up.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Micktrick: very useful link thank you. I believe different royalty rates apply to private vs State land, however I am no expert.

It may be useful dropping an email to CEG, as it proves royalty rates are negotiable.

GL

Starchild

Theboys: respectfully, you appear to be very angry and frustrated. But why doubt the integrity of anyone who does not post negativity? How would you feel if it was alleged you are a shorter pretending to be LTH.
As I've stated before, there's enough persons on this BB writing negativity, which is why I rarely do. There's no point. If I have a grievance, complaint, or constructive opinion I confidentially write to CEG and at times speak to senior persons on the BoD/Management team. Be nice.

Refer to a letter to the Tribune’s editor https://ewnews.com/letters-to-the-editor-the-crisis-of-the-bahamian-economy

The State debt to GDP ratio is c100%. This $9.5B debt is also expensive to service. A few months ago, some newly issued Gov bonds carried a punitive 9% interest rate. If commercial oil is discovered, servicing this debt and eventually paying it off in full is possible. Especially so, if heading for an oil price super cycle.

July 1 is the license renewal date. CEG must give up 50% of its acreage and it plans to hand back its rights to shallower waters in the south. In return, the Gov should provide a 3-year drill or drop extension. If it plays political games, attempts to leverage higher royalties, or panders to the environmentalists who do not speak on behalf of the majority, and renewal is declined, the Gov risks being sued all the way to the Privy Council based in London for at least $150m exploration costs to date + damages. Furthermore, it risks severe reputational damage when seeking investment for future infrastructure projects. ‘Help us build an airport and in a few years we will rip you off akin to an African dictatorship or Banana republic.’

With an election looming, it is easier for the Gov to renew using the excuse ‘we had no choice,’ rather than risk being sued and the ensuing political fall-out for turning its back to potentially billions of dollars. Especially as oil tankers pass though their waters daily and the exploration acreage is off the northern Cuban coast rather than 10km from Nassau.

CEG and its shareholders’ focus is now on its ex-CERP asset opportunities, specifically Saffron, followed by Suriname. CEG’s Mcap is c£24m, which is approximately the price paid for CERP 10 months ago, including paying off the Lind debt. Despite a surge in the PoO price, the world on its way to a Covid-19 recovery and CEG being more advanced now than CERP was then, its Mcap is still only £24m, compared to CERP’s £40m+ autumn 2019 with less imminent potential.

Furthermore, the Market currently values the Bahamas $150m spent to date as zero and the probability of a farm-in close to zero. What may change sentiment is two interconnected events: Gov renewal and the Percy-1 autopsy. We should know more this month.

In the last 2 weeks there has been shareholder revolts at Exxon/Chevron, the Dutch court case affecting Shell and Biden suspending Trump’s Arctic Alaska drilling leases. Opec+ are clapping their hands in glee and increasing summer production. Despite this, WTI PoO has hit its highest levels since Oct 2018.

A point of welcomed opinion is whether these recent events have made a Farm-in case more attractive…..assuming the Percy-1 autopsy meets expectations and the license is renewed on time. Thoughts?

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

IMHO ADVFN is finished. Even if there is a takeover, which I doubt, the core problem is their lack of experienced moderators on what is known as the wild west, anything goes, forum.

It takes 2 days to get a response when complaining about a post by which time the damage has been done. I believe there are plans afoot for AIM companies and their shareholders, that have suffered, to fight back using the authorities. Trolling is the in-word at the moment and I allege ADVFN allows it, contrary to various laws.

IMHO, any corporate buyer of ADVFN has not done due diligence properly. Key question: ‘has or is ADVFN subject to any enquiry?’ I will update when I know more.

Check back on my posting history. I normally give cerebral researched opinions and rarely negative ones. STRONG SELL as I stated when the SP was >70p. It is now substantially less. I can confirm I have no position nor a CFD on this company although tempted to short it with substantial funds.

I'm sorry if this post upsets anyone. I am writing what I believe is true. STRONG SELL.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Noel:

LO debt approx $4m (less c£500k in fees theoretically refunded in cash, however this may have been part of the recent fees paid in shares)

Bahamas Gov license fees are under administrative dispute. I assume this is because prior to Feb 2020, BPC could not drill without EA. We don't know the amount, nor the renewal amount for the half outstanding acreage CEG wants to be renewed for 3 years on 1/7/21

Starchild

One of the reasons for the OO/Placing was to raise capital to pay Stena and other Percy-1 related suppliers. Simply put, had the legacy costs not exceeded budget by $10m - $14m, it is unlikely CEG would have needed a capital raise, or at least not at that $10m level.

$7m is disputed. The cause, according to the 24/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xeq3lnx ... '..... a considerable amount of non-productive time (and hence additional cost of approx. $7m) was added to the overall drilling program as a result of mechanical debris in the hole lost from the Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) system requiring side-tracking.....'

Was it negligence or a fluke accident? If negligence, was it a Stena contractor or another supplier? We are not party to how this happened, nor the dispute resolution provisions within the supplier agreement(s). Even if there is no mechanism for ADR/mediation/arbitration, British courts expect parties in dispute to use best efforts to resolve matters before litigation. There are two incentives: if ADR is not done, the winning party could have a costs order awarded against them. The second is time, as it could take 1-2 years with only the lawyers being in a no-lose position.

IMO, Stena does not want details of the event in the public domain. Especially so if the event could have triggered a safety critical event and thus potentially cause reputational damage. CEG and its shareholders also want the matter resolved so we all know where we stand, and the corporate reset finalised. Anything < $10m will exceed my expectations, better still is if the final bill is paid with shares at the 8p Bizzell funding level. Despite the resulting dilution, it will mean CEG will conserve +/- $10m cash which it can use for developing ex-CERP assets.

If I was involved in negotiating a settlement (I am not) the obvious objection will be why should they accept shares at over double the current SP? The simple rebuttal is a less rude version of, ‘see you in court.’ However, this is where Saffron 2 can be a double whammy. If the spud is successful (or at least not a failure), the SP should meander its way to a substantial rise. This in turn can be leveraged for a Stena settlement. Again, if I were negotiating the matter, I would attempt to make a strong case (even though I am not known for in-your-face ramping) that a settlement after a successful Saffron 2 with $10m in freed cash will potentially make the SP increase to well over 8p, despite the +/- 10% dilution of +/- 80m shares. Refer to my recent post of what is in the ex-CERP asset pipeline subject to funding, and the list of capital costs vs ROI.

Caveat: the above is not a prediction on my part. It is what I hope will happen.

Let’s wait and see.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Be nice to fellow posters.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rossannan: Thank you for the link. You must now accept I was right as stated in my previous post. Clearly the changes to the tax occurred 1/2/2020. The Auctus report stating $85m gross was after this date, and so was Eytan's comment 3 weeks ago re c$25m NET. Agreed?

Respectfully, perhaps you can now heed your own advice....'If you are going to paint a picture for your readers, paint the whole picture'.

GL

Starchild

Rossannan:

1. Provide your source for what you state as fact.

2. The $85m tax credit is a FACT as stated by Auctus a few months ago

3. The net benefit to CEG is c$25m as stated by Eytan very recently is, we assume, a FACT. He clearly knows about this more than you do, and this figure obviously incorporates the PPT relief figure had there been any changes to the T+T tax regime. If what you state is correct, had this figure not changed, perhaps the net c$25m figure would have been much higher. (100-33% = 75%, $38m - 33% = c$25m)

End of debate.

GL

Starchild

SVS: I’m sorry you feel my posts are a daily copy/paste with addendums. I do not believe this is true nor fair. Yesterday’s post was based on 14 key future events that are fluid (eg, recent PRD RNS on CO2). There have been 3 triggers that have substantially changed shareholding demographics. Feb: Percy-1 result; April: the OO/Placing; May: result of the OO/P. The latter added 2B shares (+1B Bizzell) which means there are lots of new holders. I believe those new holders find my summaries useful, amongst the daily clutter of insults, prepubescent name calling, and anti-CEG commentary from shorters, angry ex-holders and frustrated LTHs.

My posts provide opinion (in good faith) and research based on RNSs, presentations and analysts’ opinions to help ‘DYOR.’ However I am pleased you believe they are worth reading once a week. Suggestion: PLEASE block me to avoid mutual irritation.

Thebhoys: I found your post offensive. I have >40m shares (pre-consolidation) and do not need to earn pocket money as a so called pro-ramper as stated by you many times. Please do not do so again. And to state I wilfully over-exaggerate figures is FALSE.

Bohemia:
1. You’ve made it clear you are shorting CEG, although you recently stated you have or are exiting your CFD. The 26/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/ry4n3kr states... ‘Current production 450 - 500 bopd Incremental operational cashflow per year $3m’… I have never stated $3m (now c$4m) is pure profit. Respectfully, what is it you don’t understand? Why did Auctus add $3m for 2021, ostensibly to the cash available vs payable (Percy-1 etc) after G&A? I really don’t want to spend any more bandwidth on this with you.

2. As at 31/12/19 It is an undisputed fact CERP had T+T $85m in tax credits. It is a fact this is worth c$25m net as stated recently albeit ‘ring-fenced’. It is a fact BPC>CEG now owns this tax credit after CERP merger, despite the change in ownership which will benefit its net ROI after taxes assuming profitability. Based on the Act sec 12A (source https://rgd.legalaffairs.gov.tt/laws2/Alphabetical_List/lawspdfs/75.04.pdf ) CEG clearly cannot place an advert on eBay, stating ‘…corporate shell for sale worth $25m, please bid. We may swap for a luxury hotel…’

I am involved in corporate international tax structures, but do not profess to T+T HC tax expertise nor reviewed case precedents. However, IMO there are ways this can legally be done for >49% if it involves a connected transaction at arm’s length. Example: contract 1, ‘Binky PLC merges CEG asset for a consideration (ie, $$$). Contract 2, CEG merges Binky PLC asset for a consideration to take into account a chunk of the $25m tax benefit. I don’t want to spend any more bandwidth on this matter with you either. I gave an opinion; you disagree with it. End of.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Be nice.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/