Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Wotitsworth: I think the specifics not broken down because similar to Saffron 1.
My summary:
1. Drill succeeded to the depths intended
2. Similar qualities to Saffron 1 (read 27/4/20 RNS https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CERP/saffron-discoveries-lower-cruse-and-middle-cruse/14516801?lang=en )
3. We will know more in 5-7 days
4. It is ear marked for production by 23/7
What we will know soon: full tech details, quality/quantity, pressure, etc, which will form the basis of the broader Saffron project potential and investment
Opinion: if it can produce 100+boed long-term, I will be satisfied. >200 pleased, >300 ecstatic.
GL
Starchild
We are due an RNS this morning on the interim technical results at the conclusion of the Saffron 2 Spud.
Furthermore, we may get CEG’s viewpoint on the recent allegation by the Bahamas Minister that license fees are outstanding. If nothing is stated on the latter, we can assume the radio silence is to give a few days grace in an attempt to negotiate a settlement, rather than give a running commentary in the public domain. If no compromise is reached (CEG could offer to pay the +/- $1m difference, but only if a farm-in deal materialises), I hope it pays the disputed amount, but ‘under protest.’ It can then trigger a formal dispute resolution process to resolve the matter. If CEG wins its argument, any refund can be offset from 2022/23 license fees.
I believe this is very important, because the Minister practically confirmed (without spelling it out), the Gov will not object to CEG’s right to extend its licenses upon payment of the full $2.9m. This inference caused the environmentalists to jump up and down in the media last week. Until the license is formally extended, even if the result of the Percy-1 autopsy meets or exceeds expectations, it may put-off farm-in partners spending time accessing the data room hosted by GNEISS.
I hope we get an RNS this morning.
GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
PS: It appears a small group of anti-CEG commentators are ganging together to get my posts removed. There is a loophole on this BB with posts being automatically deleted, despite being fully compliant with LSE’s Ts and Cs, if enough persons report them. Whether pro or anti-CEG, going long or short, there is absolutely NO excuse to insult or libel anyone. Such posts deserve deletion and LSE’s moderators often do so. What is totally unacceptable is to use loopholes in a system’s processes, to get polite, perfectly rational researched opinions deleted. I believe the latter is a form of wrongful BB manipulation to artificially affect market sentiment via censorship.
Noel12345: Thanks re https://thenassauguardian.com/ferreira-oil-license-renewal-wont-be-reconsidered-with-fees-outstanding/
‘Minister Romauld Ferreira said yesterday the government is inclined to reject Bahamas Petroleum Company’s (BPC) application to extend its four southern licenses to drill for oil in Bahamian waters until it pays its outstanding fees...’
If you read a Jan 2021 article ( http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/jan/15/govt-and-bpc-dispute-outstanding-licence-fees/ ), there’s clearly a difference of opinion between the Gov and CEG. The Gov believes $1.9m is owed in back-fees (plus $1m for 2021), and CEG is disputing at least $1m of these back-fees.
We are not party to the agreement, however CEG’s argument is likely based on the EA delays which took until Feb 2020. CEG has probably argued it could not drill without EA, so why should it pay for a license to explore, when it couldn’t? It is like leasing a car long-term from Hertz, but until Hertz decides otherwise, you’re not permitted to drive it. And then, when approval is finally granted, Hertz demands a back-payment from the date the lease began.
All major commercial contracts have clauses to deal with disputes, and if events take place not covered in the contract, the agreed jurisdiction’s laws apply. Also applicable is precedent and common law. In my Hertz example, general (consumer) laws would normally trump any unfair clauses.
Many contracts I have asked to be drafted included a ‘no waiver’ clause. What this means is, ‘if we let you get away with a non-compliant event, or breach, does not set a precedent or ‘waiver’ for the future’. I do not know if this applies to the CEG agreement. If not, CEG could argue on precedent, the Gov were flexible with past payments if events were beyond CEG’s control.
The Gov is now at risk of serious international reputational damage….. ‘Help us fund an airport or a highway and in a few years’, we’ll try to get out of the deal using loopholes…’ In CEG’s case having spent $150m, it is exercising its legal right to extend by 3 years. End of.
Why the minister decided to go the media over such a relatively small amount is strange. So far, it does not appear to be heading to court (yet) otherwise the AG would have probably issued a statement.
I hope this is resolved ASAP, perhaps by offering the Gov full payment, but only if a farm-in is executed.
This brings me to my heavily caveated post of yesterday morning:
Amongst the nasty insults I received throughout the day, mainly from ex CEG shareholders who appear to have a grudge, no one provided rational counterarguments. Why? Because they know if there is a farm-in with free spud(s) and $50m-$100m cash, it is a mathematical certainty CEG’s SP will SOAR. I suggest they provide evidence to the contrary rather than personal attacks. But they won’t, because they can’t.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Today’s RNS is neither good nor bad and was issued to fulfil regulatory requirements for a trading statement.
Of the $10.7m net cash CEG is holding we do not know if Bizzell advanced £2m/$2.7m, whether LOL’s $4m is included in the net figure, nor if some of the $3m S2 spud has been paid to contractors.
Had CEG not had any legacy Percy-1 costs outstanding, (currently being negotiation or under dispute), things would be rosy. With $10.7m in the bank, taking into account monthly production and PoO upbeat predictions 2H 2021, CEG’s MCap would be a lot higher than £22m. The solution for these debts when agreed is to issue shares (at a fair price) which would indirectly mean CEG would retain several million in cash for expansion. CEG is potentially better off waiting for confirmation of (a) the Bahamas Gov license renewal, (b) Percy-1 autopsy, and (c) Saffron 2 result analysis.
A + B if positive, opens the door to a potential farm-in
A + B + C, if positive = SP surge
Bottom line: less shares will need to be issued to repay legacy debt if A+B is positive and C is NOT a total failure, which will potentially free several million in cash. It is not in CEG’s interests to finalise a legacy deal at less than +/- 7.5p (with no strings attached) if they can use the Bizzell facility at 8p (with some strings attached including interest and Bizzell’s conversion rights to half the shares). Refer to my post 22/6 at 4:22am how I would plausibly ‘hard-sell’ a repayment deal to Stena et all at 12p.
Lots of news expected on various fronts imminently.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Ps: my wife wanted to know who the Stena was I was dreaming about at the weekend (it’s a Nordic unisex name). She was curious to know if ‘she’ was a leggy blond Swedish bombshell or a hairy bearded Viking-looking man or woman. This, compounded by a busy diary, made me decide to stop posting for a few days. I like CEG, believe in CEG’s potential, enjoy posting here once a day…..but I don’t want to dream about it.
Thebhoys: I note you have disposed of your remaining CEG shares. I wish you well
As news is imminent, it is worth watching Eytan’s 38 mins Proactive Q+A session from 6 May, 3 weeks before the company’s EGM reset and fully subscribed c$10m OO/Placing. Source https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97B0ZuskdrI&t=4s
He answered some very tricky shareholder questions about the past, present and future….without beating about the bush. Some of his forward-looking statements are imminently due:
• Result of Saffron 2 (subject to well analysis in July)
• Percy-1 detailed analysis (‘in 6 – 8 weeks’)
• Why Percy-1 went over-budget and how the problem will be resolved [Refer to the second half of my 22/6 04:22 post, how I would attempt to ‘hard-sell’ a Stena deal]
• Bahamas Gov renewal (‘it is BPC’s right’ to extend license for 3 years on 30/6/21)
• The $85m Trinidad tax credits y/e 31/12/2019 ($25m net), are an asset moving forward. Free net cash is helped by the Special Petroleum Tax being $75/b from 1/1/21 vs $50/b in CERP days.
Conclusions
The current £22m MCAP values CEG purely on its current measly 450-500boe/d production. The market has not factored in ANY potential upside, let alone its c/f Trinidad tax credits, $70+ PoO and a potential Bahamas farm-in.
Refer to my previous post on how Kosmos got $100m (plus a potential $100m more) when a Shell JV for its exploration assets alone was signed in September at the height of the pandemic when PoO was $40-$45. Furthermore, my post on 17/6 made a case how a UK Major could be better off (net revenue) vs the North Sea even if CEG retained a small percentage of the Bahamas asset.
The above are my personal opinions and interpretations partly influenced by the above presentation and supporting documented facts which I have posted here in the last few weeks. Buy, top-up, hold, de-risk-some, sell-all… it’s your choice.
DYOR. GLA. Enjoy Saturday. Lots of footie.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
The result of the Percy-1 drill being non-commercial was a disaster to the SP. FTR, I predicted a 5p (converted) knee jerk reaction. LTHs knew the 1 in 3 risk of a commercial success was like a casino punter dumping £10k on a roulette wheel’s row. Such bets are not for widows and orphans’ life savings.
The difference to roulette being, instead of tripling one’s capital or losing the lot, in BPC’s case the potential was a 10x plus win, or in the event of a loss, the return of one’s original bet in full (or more) due to ex-CERP assets. To use a simple word, the bet was potentially HEDGED.
But things got worse by the Stena cost over-run (of at least $10m over budget) and having to pay $4m to LOL. The affect was a dilutive open offer and II placing to reset the company. This was the equivalent of a gardener using a chainsaw on ‘our’ hedge and culling one third of it.
Clearly LTHs who bought at 15p-25p (converted) over the years are in the greatest pain border-lining on agony. Followed by newbies who bought in the 4.5p-7p range Feb-April, followed by those who bought in the OO/Placing @3.5p. I bought in all 3 phases, and more recently at 2.7p, so I should be on morphine. Some ‘funny’ anti-CEG commentators may wisecrack I should have been medicated for buying BPC/CEG in the first place.
The above may sound like an obituary at a funeral. So, here’s what can awaken the comatose patient, or ‘sleeping’ dead parrot, if things go right.
Yesterday’s Saffron 2 update was a good start to grow shoots on our hedge, although the obese lady will not sing for a few more weeks with the full results. This and Suriname can create larger shoots, but there’s a possibility the hedge can become gargantuan. How?
A farm-out.
An article from 9/9/20 is very interesting. Kosmos received $100m for a farm down to Shell of its EXPLORATION assets, with a potential $100m more on discoveries. (Source https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-farm-down-portfolio-exploration-assets ). Note: in Aug/Sep 2020 PoO was $40-$45. Today it is $75 and expected to hit $100 and remain in the $70s for some time. Furthermore, majors are potentially running out of new inventory for the mid-2020s.
If a CEG farm-out occurs with ‘only’ $50m (!) in back costs being paid by a Major, this will alleviate most LTHs’ excruciating pain as the SP will soar on the newly available capex to develop ex-CERP assets and a future FULLY funded Uruguay spud.
This is all dependent on Gov license renewal and the Percy-1 autopsy meeting expectations, (the news of which is IMMINENT), and a farm-out actually happening, which may or may not materialise. However, reading the Kosmos article resulted in reducing my morphine dosage since yesterday morning.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Read my previous post on court case latest
LLL: thanks for posting the article http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/jun/23/oil-opponents-bid-end-legal-roadblock/
I am seething, hence a rare post from me during the day.
Smith QC’s Enviro clients publicly cheer led by him in the media, attempted to injunct the drill in the so called public interest and failed. The latest manoeuvre, in the so called public interest again has absurdly been spun as if Smith et al are doing CEG a favour. They are not. It’s a damage limitation exercise because if it is proven the attempted injunction had no merit, and timed to destroy CEG, it opens the door to serious litigation as a separate action.
I hope….
1. CEG demands 200k as ordered by the court be transferred, not 100k
2. Let Smith state at the beginning of the hearing, his clients do not wish to proceed with part of case and now wish to change the goal posts
3. The above will allow CEG to claim full costs for that part of the action
4. When the whole case is over and CEG wins, that they get awarded substantial costs in full, over and above the 200k security
5. Depending on the judge’s summing up, CEG to sue everyone involved for millions in damages including the $4m LOL facility costs. CEG was forced to set the funding bar at 2p (with a guaranteed 15% return), when they could have got 2.5p+ leading to spud.
6. And because of the LOL overhang for several weeks, caused by Smith et al’s allegedly ABSURD action and failed injunction, the SP did not reach the 6p level analysts predicted, which meant LTHs lost millions as they could not de-risk some of their holdings before the 8/2/21 result. Some are still holding the baby.
One potential positive which should not be read as a fact yet: Smith has connections and sources at the highest level in government and the opposition. Why make this offer now when he could have waited a week or two after the gov had confirmed or declined license renewal? I may have read the tea leaves wrong, but either Smith knows the license will be renewed, or very much suspects it will, hence this damage limitation exercise now.
When a lawyer offers a gift, it is wise to look at motive. The first time this happened in ancient history was when Stavros, Souvlaki and Odysseus (a well-known ancient Greek law firm), brokered a gift to the municipality of Troy. It was a wooden horse on behalf of their Greek government client. I made that bit up under poetic license to make a point.
I am so angry I need to take a shower
DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
I think it’s a (continued) good start. 200 feet of oil bearing sands out of 3500 feet analysed, with 1000 feet to drill/analyse in the next week or so. I doubt CEG would commit to the additional time cost and capex for casings etc, unless the engineers like what they have seen so far.
Read my post tomorrow morning. I found something very interesting which I need to finalise.
DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Onlybpc: Totally agree. Tiburn summed it up so well I want to have his babies . So did Deltalo with his well-researched post yesterday .
DavidBrent: I don’t want to have yours, neither do I expect to be on your XMAS card list, but perhaps ZagEgypt will be more accommodating as you appear to be buddies. I felt your comments today and continued bubble blowing snipes over the last few weeks against me and others totally groundless and unfair. The only time I have marked or will ever mark CEG strong buy is when I believe, in good faith, this to be the case. Last time was when the SP was approx. 0.5p and it reached 0.7p. Furthermore, I am still to be proven wrong, when at 0.5p (worth 5p now) I opined there is very little scope for the SP to permanently go below this figure with potential for a substantial rise. Please stop insulting fellow holders. If you have issues I suggest you sell your remaining £1000 shares which you disclosed and move on rather than continually being stressed over the Percy-1 non-commercial result which I am saddened on your behalf. Life is too short. Respectfully, when I read your constant moaning, I feel like performing the Japanese ritual self-disembowelling act of Seppuku in despair. You remind me of one of my ex-wives but I can’t remember which one. GL
Gibbo1066: much appreciated buddy.
GLA
Starchild
We may get an RNS this morning re the S2 interim result, however my expectation is Thursday/Friday.
Bohemia: your 2 posts yesterday morning attempted to make a case that CEG cannot borrow against a potential S2 discovery for several months, and no sane bank would lend it money. You concentrated on what is known as infrastructure lending, yet seem to have forgotten about the Bizzell facility, reserve based lending and pre-pay based on CEG’s current production (450-500boed) and the results of the S2 discovery when fully analysed in a few weeks. A CPR can help leverage reserves at between $1-2m per million boe. The sum of the parts above, can provide cash to develop ex-CERP assets, despite your assertions that it’s probably a lost cause. And this excludes the potential of a Stena deal which could free $10m in currently ring-fenced reserves.Or a farm-in involving some Percy-1 back costs.
FlyoverE: I’m in my 7th decade of life and have never been called a bubble blower before. I had to look it up, yet still have not ascertained if it was meant as a term of endearment or a slur. However I did find some references to West Ham and the late Michael Jackson’s pet monkey. Perhaps you should read my 04:22am post again to understand I was giving an opinion of how a hypothetical hard-sell to Stena could facilitate a negotiated settlement on the disputed $7m, and free $10m in cash. I was not creating virtual fundamentals out of thin air.
All: this post is short and not the size of my normal daily thesis. The reason for this uncharacteristic change to my modus operandi is I spent the hour I normally put aside to research CEG as a hobby, researching ‘bubble blowing.’ I hope I haven’t been flagged by the authorities or Google for questionable, potentially illegal searches.
Have a great day all. Lot's of news expected soon.
Starchild the bubble blower
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Bohemia: I note you agree with my figures and actually improved them as yours are based on $60 PoO. Mine $70. I agree a bank will expect proof of production, but not 6 months. Banks will be delighted to lend on an asset that gives a full capex and interest repayment in 1- 3 years!!!
Are you still shorting CEG? Probably explains the rest of your somewhat negative post.
Have a nice day,
Starchild
Tunder: I will try and answer your question, on the SP estimate if we get S2 levels of 100, 200, or 300 bopd.
The simple ‘rampy’ answer is, ‘A lot more than today and cor blimey I don’t wanna be out of this share by tomorrow. BUY.’ However, it’s more complicated than that.
Firstly, I base SP predictions on pro-analysts’ reports. Refer to the 27/4 Auctus one https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf .
They make a case for 12p short-term based on $60 PoO, excluding Bahamas. A successful S2 will help de-risk the whole SWP and open the door to funding the S3-S9 ‘twins’. IMO, anything more than 100boed, should be classed as a ‘success.’ At current PoO, this gives an ROI in c3 yrs x 9 Saffrons.
BUT there are 3 gorillas in the room which need to be captured before investors pile in. On the face of it they do not appear connected, however IMO they are.
1. How much free cash CEG has to develop SWP and other projects is dependent on the final $14m Stena bill.
2. Gov license renewal on 30/6/21
3. Percy-1 autopsy
It is in CEG’s interests to do a Stena deal involving shares because this frees ring-fenced cash, raised in the OO/Placing to payPercy-1 costs. Even if a deal were reached for c$10m, Stena would expect cash or shares of equal value. At 3-4p, it would create too much dilution.
If I were negotiating a Stena deal, I would wear a turbo-charged ramper’s hat on steroids and state:
‘…Have we got a deal for you. We will magnanimously pay $14m with no discount for the disputed $7m. FTR, It wasn’t CEG’s fault a metal object fell down your bleedin’ well, so you owe us one. Please accept 85m CEG shares @12p (=£10m/$14m) with 7 justifications:
(a) S2 was a success. As such the 27/4 Auctus report’s 12p could become a QUICK self-fulfilling prophecy. Hence our Stena offer is @12p.
(b) The Gov has renewed the license and we remain confident we will get a farm-in partner, or at least get majors in the data room because the Percy-1 autopsy proved x, y, z. Last time this happened BPC’s MCap hit £156m, worth 20p today.
(c) If farm-in happens including $50m back costs, we’ll hire Stena for Uruguay.
(d) When this Stena deal is RNSd, the SP will soar because the market will know CEG will have $10m free to develop ex-CERP assets.
(e) Purely from ex-CERP assets, a Dec 2020 Auctus report stated these alone when fully developed are potentially worth £250-300m MCap.
(f) Read Starchild and Tiburn’s research posts.
(g) Finally (although I’ll beat myself when I leave this Zoom call), despite Stena making it like bandits, we’ll throw in a few million Stena warrants…..’
Tunder, sorry for the waffly answer to your simple question. Bottom line: IMHO a series of loosely connected but inter-related news during July (including the full Percy-1 and S2 autopsies) will affect the SP, not just S2’s daily production rate. GL!
DYOR.
Starchild
https://www.
Chrisgas: Your detailed analysis of the figures, and share-price modelling was cerebral, helpful and I believe in good faith. Although I disagreed with some of your opinions, please post more often.
You asked …. ‘ I would be interested to know how PI’s will determine if Saffron#2 is a success or not and what data they need to come to their conclusion and over what time period.’
I party answered your question (from my viewpoint) on 18/6. …..
Saffron 2 cost CEG $3m capex. Assuming $70 PoO , less $20 extraction costs = $50 gross profit per boe
• 100boed: $50x100x360= $1.8m/yr
• 200boed: $50x200x360= $3.6m/yr
• 300boed: $50x300x360= $5.4m /yr
……Above, less a number of others unit costs as listed in that post, before net cash-flow can be ascertained.
In the next few days we will know the interim S2 result with details such as depth of sands and oil shows. It will take several more weeks to get a full autopsy including well pressure, flow results, API, percentage oil vs water and ultimately boed per day production. Followed by a CPR of probable reserves. If CEG produces 100b/d I will be content, 200b/d delighted and 300b/d ecstatic. Even 100d/day (at $70 PoO), gives an ROI of c3 years and helps de-risk to a degree the other 9 Saffron ‘twins’.
The one point I don’t fully agree with you on is using typical professional medium-longterm ROI modelling on a small MCap highly volatile AIM share, compared to say Exxon or BT. Yesterday I listed 19 news triggers that could affect CEG’s SP by year end, some with substantial impact.
IMO, the key triggers to CEG’s volatility is greed and fear. Newsflow (unless dramatic such as Covid) will rarely cause Exxon or BT to lose two thirds or triple their MCaps in weeks. The engine that powers CEG’s volatility is day traders that will pile in and out based on news. If good news, the SP can substantially rise and stay higher. Today, CEG is still sitting on the ‘naughty chair’ based on the Percy-1 result and the OO/II Placing. It will not take much positive news to allow CEG to play with the good children again.
Future placing
Some recent commentators opined a placing is on the cards. A placing for growth, asset acquisition or to fund a game changing event (eg a mega spud) is good. PRD recently did two and the SP increased. A placing to pay debt or to survive is not good. A bank loan to buy an asset that will likely increase is good. Borrowing money for food to avoid having to sell one’s body is not good.
There are two de-facto ‘placings’ by another name on the cards. (1) The Bizzell funding for growth investment which is set at 8p. I don’t think there would be many complaints if this was 8p. (2) A Stena deal involving shares. If this were 8p+, I would be pleased because it means CEG would have several million to develop ex-CERP assets.
IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
I have listed my best guesses of expected news and its impact to CEG’s SP. ‘H’ (high), ‘M’ (medium), commentary in [ ]. Updated and renumbered.
ASAP
1. (H VIP) Saffron 2 spud result this week
2. (H VIP) Confirmation Bahamas licenses renewed from 1/7/21 for 3 years
3. (H VIP) Detailed Percy-1 autopsy [Connected to 2, Gov renewal. If there’s a good case for further drills, SP should increase. The market currently values this and the $150m spent to date as zero].
By July 31
10. (H VIP) S2 detailed results. [CPR?]
11. (H) Bizzell 8p funding option. [Jul 31 is end date]
12. (M) Trading statement until 30/6/21
13. (M) Suriname spud update
14. (M) EA court hearing update
15. (M) How is the CEG/PRD JV for CO2 progressing?
By Sept 30
20. (H VIP) A major in the data-room? [Subject to 2, 3. Last time this happened in 2018 MCap soared to 156m pre CERP merger. Equiv to 20p now]
21. (M) What’s next in T+T
22. (H) Enviro’s court case 2-3 days. [+/- 2 weeks for judgement. Key will be the summing up. If the court LAMBASTS the Enviros’ conduct and implies malice, more chance of 23 happening]
23. (M) Possible legal action against the enviros for attempting an injunction which cost BPC and its shareholders millions, while allegedly harassing suppliers (LOL and Lloyds)
24. (M) Y/E 2020 financials including events since 31/12/20 [Connected to 25, 26. MEGA loss expected. Material events since, may or may not meet expectations. T+T 2019 tax losses C/F were $85m c$25m net. 2020???]
25. (H VIP) Final Bahamas costs. [Excluding $4m to LOL, if the legacy bills total <$10m it will be good. If some debt is paid in shares, it depends at what price. Positive: more cash. Negative: some dilution]
26. (M or H) Funding availability vs needs [RBL?]
27. (M) Uruguay update. [See 999]
28. (M) PoO. [High impact if stuck at <$55/b or >$80/b]
By 4th quarter
999. (H VIP) Farm in with a major or a consortium of smaller ones to share the risk/reward? Will CEG get some of the c$150m spent and/or free Percy-2/3 drill(s)? [Connected to 2, 3, 20 and possibly PoO 28. Refer to my recent posts for financial justification modelling on how a major could get a ‘free’ Bahamas spud if CEG leverages Uruguay spud].
High impact news is shown as ‘VIP’ above.
IMHO. DYOR. Proposed updates welcome. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Rossannan: Please do NOT EVER give me investment advice again. You absurdly state share BBs do not influence market sentiment. You post as if you are a neutral wise sage whose opinions are in good faith when in fact they are based on your trading position/CFDs at the time. You are a self-professed ‘ramper stamper’. You had issues with CERP, then BPC, now CEG and recently stated you have bought-in while holding your nose. And worse of all, you sought money to stop posting CERP negativity. We have an audit trail, so you can’t deny this.
Flash correction to my last post in case it effects CEG’s SP at 0800am Monday based on a rare research error on my part.
I can’t believe it’s not butter, although a margarine, is not made from crude oil chemicals………. It’s made from vegetable oils………..such as coconuts.
I trust this post avoided you making a catastrophic trading decision to double your CEG holdings. DYOR, but perhaps wait until the Saffron result this week until doing so.
Have a nice Saturday. GLA
Starchild
Although our focus is currently on the Saffron 2 result, let’s not forget the potential interest in a Bahamas farm-in.
Refer to https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Its-Too-Late-To-Avoid-A-Major-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html as It puts forward some interesting opinions shared by other experts. I quote key points:
• ‘The level of drilling and by extension capital investment [by majors] is insufficient and has been for a number of years to sustain oil production at current levels’
• ‘[Super-Majors are] all prime targets of the anti-oil movement, have reduced their capital allocation toward petroleum, exited businesses or converted petroleum assets like refineries to renewables, and sold assets that a few years ago might have contributed to oil and gas inventories.’
• ‘As the well inventory ages, production rates will decline, and without new wells to replace them, the overall output must go down’
• [At $70+ PoO] Drilling will likely increase, no doubt. But the industry has changed in the last couple of years and the ability to field 1,100+ rigs, and 450 frac spreads just isn't there. Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry.
• ‘Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600B short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030’
My take: The majors have NOT experienced a collective epiphany and decided never to drill for new offshore mega targets again. I’m 100% in favour of green energy but the world needs oil for chemicals, fertilizer, clothes, and plastics. I’m not aware of any tech that can provide these using solar panels. I can’t believe margarines such as ‘I can’t believe it’s not butter’, can be produced with wind turbines.
Key points: Subject to gov license renewal and the Percy-1 autopsy, I have made arguments over the last few days in 4 connected posts, how and why majors could benefit from a CEG farm-in. Or at least seduce them into the CEG/Gneiss data room. IMO, the above article reinforces the case. Last time a major did so in 2018, the MCap hit £156m (= c20p SP today). And this was without ex-CERP assets’ potential or PoO plausibly hitting $100b+. Refer to https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ for this research.
DYOR. GLA.
Starchild
PS Thebhoys: Respectfully, the ‘size of my coconuts’ ie wealth or lack-thereof, is my business. I note you still hold CEG shares. So do I, approaching 5m as four separate but interconnected virtual investments. Why attack a fellow shareholder with snide comments, repeatedly doubting my motives and integrity? Is it not like having a bad day in the office and taking it out on your family? I believe this link is applicable: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olGim6tf6tc&t=42s Have a nice day.
Clintek: A suggestion without giving advice. If you plan to buy (or sell) large chunks, call your share trading provider, who will manually phone ShoreCap CEG's joint broker while you stay on the line.
I suspect there's a bit of overhang left from Monecor who were left holding 9.2m shares as at 4/6 according to TR-1, assuming they chose to sell all their holdings which may not be the case.
See https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/challenger_energy_group/news/rns/story/xoz5v3w If Shorecap wants silly money to sell to you, overhang is over. If not, there's probably a bit left to sell so you will get a good deal.
GL
Starchild
now back to my proper job. Been quite exciting last hour or so in CEG world
Clintek: its on 2nd level console. Also check Aquis exchange as around +/- 10% trades are on there https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=CEG.GB.PL&share=Challenger-Energy-Group-Plc
Welcome to CEG
Starchild