RE: Predictions and thoughts22 Jun 2021 05:22
Tunder: I will try and answer your question, on the SP estimate if we get S2 levels of 100, 200, or 300 bopd.
The simple ‘rampy’ answer is, ‘A lot more than today and cor blimey I don’t wanna be out of this share by tomorrow. BUY.’ However, it’s more complicated than that.
Firstly, I base SP predictions on pro-analysts’ reports. Refer to the 27/4 Auctus one https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf .
They make a case for 12p short-term based on $60 PoO, excluding Bahamas. A successful S2 will help de-risk the whole SWP and open the door to funding the S3-S9 ‘twins’. IMO, anything more than 100boed, should be classed as a ‘success.’ At current PoO, this gives an ROI in c3 yrs x 9 Saffrons.
BUT there are 3 gorillas in the room which need to be captured before investors pile in. On the face of it they do not appear connected, however IMO they are.
1. How much free cash CEG has to develop SWP and other projects is dependent on the final $14m Stena bill.
2. Gov license renewal on 30/6/21
3. Percy-1 autopsy
It is in CEG’s interests to do a Stena deal involving shares because this frees ring-fenced cash, raised in the OO/Placing to payPercy-1 costs. Even if a deal were reached for c$10m, Stena would expect cash or shares of equal value. At 3-4p, it would create too much dilution.
If I were negotiating a Stena deal, I would wear a turbo-charged ramper’s hat on steroids and state:
‘…Have we got a deal for you. We will magnanimously pay $14m with no discount for the disputed $7m. FTR, It wasn’t CEG’s fault a metal object fell down your bleedin’ well, so you owe us one. Please accept 85m CEG shares @12p (=£10m/$14m) with 7 justifications:
(a) S2 was a success. As such the 27/4 Auctus report’s 12p could become a QUICK self-fulfilling prophecy. Hence our Stena offer is @12p.
(b) The Gov has renewed the license and we remain confident we will get a farm-in partner, or at least get majors in the data room because the Percy-1 autopsy proved x, y, z. Last time this happened BPC’s MCap hit £156m, worth 20p today.
(c) If farm-in happens including $50m back costs, we’ll hire Stena for Uruguay.
(d) When this Stena deal is RNSd, the SP will soar because the market will know CEG will have $10m free to develop ex-CERP assets.
(e) Purely from ex-CERP assets, a Dec 2020 Auctus report stated these alone when fully developed are potentially worth £250-300m MCap.
(f) Read Starchild and Tiburn’s research posts.
(g) Finally (although I’ll beat myself when I leave this Zoom call), despite Stena making it like bandits, we’ll throw in a few million Stena warrants…..’
Tunder, sorry for the waffly answer to your simple question. Bottom line: IMHO a series of loosely connected but inter-related news during July (including the full Percy-1 and S2 autopsies) will affect the SP, not just S2’s daily production rate. GL!
DYOR.
Starchild
https://www.