Member Info for Starchild

Today’s RNS key points, observations with commentary/clarity in [ ]

1. ‘ the [enviros] applicants have now withdrawn from the [Bahamas] action entirely. Consent Orders to this effect have been agreed between the applicants, the Company and The Government, and were endorsed by the Court on 13 August 2021, such that the matter has now ended’ [I hope CERP sues them for damages mainly costs. What about the destruction of the SP which caused BPC having to take out the punitive Lombard deal?] …. Keep an eye out in the Bahamas press.

2. Opinion: The timing of the RNS was because the case was concluded on Friday, and IMO NOT because CEG is trying to deflect from S2. CEG needed to update the market before the press did.

3. ‘The Company expects to be able to post this [Percy-1 autopsy] report to its website during September 2021, once appropriate prior notices to, and engagement with, the Government of The Bahamas has occurred’

4. ‘Petrophysical analysis of the well logs have confirmed high quality reservoirs down to the base of the well with no significant deterioration in porosity with depth, indicating the potential for high deliverability reservoirs in the underlying Jurassic formations’. [good]

5. ‘In aggregate, the analysis of the data from Perseverance-1 drilling is broadly indicative of increased potential for oil in the underlying Jurassic interval (which was not penetrated by Perseverance-1). In particular, the relatively cool well temperatures place the postulated Jurassic source rock (producing in nearby Cuba and the US Gulf of Mexico) in the oil window, thus oil generative.’ [good]

6. ‘Ultimately, the technical findings from P1 support a forward program to include further biostratigraphic analysis, fluid inclusion analysis, and selective re-processing of 3D seismic to further educate sequence stratigraphy and seismo-facies of the deeper Jurassic horizons. This work will underpin an assessment of the merits of a further exploration well in the future, both to continue to assess Aptian horizon potential, whilst at the same time targeting the deeper Jurassic intervals’. [good]

7. FARM-OUT..’a number of parties having expressed interest and engaging with the Company. A technical data room has been established, with due diligence underway. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.’ [Excellent. DD shows serious intent]

8. LIC STATUS: [IMO, CEG has implied why it disputes the fees. What is very good is the Lic has NOT been terminated, otherwise no point in farmout data room. I like the inference about the election which I read as ‘we hope a new Gov will be in place in May’!]

I too wish BPC had gone deeper, but the original budget in April was to drill for 30-45 days (with EA approval given to do so). Had commercial quantities been found at higher depths, they may have.

Tiburn and LTHs: your views please!

I like the RNS

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild

i'll give my thoughts on RNS in 20 mins. Currently studying it

GLA

Starchild

Since the Percy-1 result on 8/2/21, the highest the SP has been is 7.2p and the lowest 1.7p. The lowest anyone has ever bought was @1.725p on Friday. This was less than half the OO/Placing price. Had the 3.5p price not been set at fair levels and at a perceived discount, it would not have succeeded.

Those that took part did not do so out of philanthropy to help CEG pay its Bahamas debts (some disputed) nor was it an act of collective insanity. 60%+ were experienced IIs/HNWIs investors and not novices seduced by a corporate sales pitch.

I also took the view 3.5p was discounted and a fair price, so I participated in both the OO and Placing. No external event since, gave rise for the SP to lose half its value, eg a PoO collapse or the invasion of Trinidad. Neither did CEG issue any very negative RNSs. As such, after the placing from late June until Friday, I bought more shares in 12 trades the lowest being @1.7655p on Friday. The total was MORE than those I bought in the OO/Placing.

I did so for the following reasons and certainly NOT proposing anyone follows my lead or takes the same risks:

1. I absolutely believe the SP has been manipulated down and explained the mechanism and rationale in recent posts.

2. This leads me to the conclusion the SP / MCap is artificially low, and the market will correct to true value subject to news. If the news exceeds expectations the SP will likely soar. (Refer to my 12/8 04:20 post what happened to CERP’s SP after the S1 RNS in Apr 2020)

3. A SP manipulated down for artificial reasons brings upside opportunity.

4. If the news is not good, IMO CEG could be subject to a hostile bid at a premium, or the BoD may consider a merger in the event Bahamas monetization is a lost cause and the capex to develop ex-CERP assets out of reach or too punitive. Unless CEG’s finances are worse than expected, any M&A would have to be at a premium to pass a 75% vote.

5. Current c$10m gross revenue and ex-CERP assets have value even if S2 is a failure, specifically the SWP’s potential 200mboe+ which could entice a suitor. CERP merged in a fire sale during a pandemic when PoO had collapsed. I would argue those assets are worth substantially more than the 2020 merger price of £24m, purely on PoO predictions and SWP potential.

6. Ending positively, this is what could happen if all the CEG ducks line up in a row: (Source 8/12/20 pages 1, 17 and 18, when there were 4B shares. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ) And this could happen if just 3 Saffrons succeed (Source https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf )

The above is my view of CEG world today, warts and all. Again I emphasise DYOR as I could have read this wrong and do not profess to being a psychic.

Eytan: news please!

Antha: evidence/links please.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild

anonymity: I agree with most of your commentary. Your to do list of awaited news is similar to my list from this morning.

The company may be constrained on some points for example; the amounts disputed with Stena or the Gov, if they are being negotiated behind closed doors. I find it strange when provisions are made in accounts for settlements, eg with the US or UK authorities, which kind of exposes how much the company believes it will have to pay, and lessens its negotiating position.

Since Eytan became CEO, news was regularly forthcoming until 28/7. We are all surprised no update has materialised for S2 nearly 3 weeks later.

Off to do family stuff. GL

Starchild

Ganners62: I note your observation that my recent opinions in this morning's 2 posts is ‘rubbish’. Perhaps you can explain what you would have done differently if you were the CEG BoD.

FTR, although I have not agreed with every decision the BoD has made (sometimes raising my concerns with BoD/senior management direct in private calls and emails), IMO there is nothing they have done or not done whatsoever, for me to lead or take part in a Hurricane Energy style shareholders’ mutiny. Before any such hypothetical and extremely unlikely event, the BoD would very likely hand over the baton to another leadership team anyway.

GL
Starchild

A large PS to my previous post:

A good S2 RNS will likely re-instate confidence and cause an immediate upward movement on the SP from 4 angles:

1. Shorters exiting their positions, as described in my previous post.

2. Recent NEW shareholders that took part in the OO/Placing, having lost half their money for artificial reasons, may contemplate buying to lower their averages from 3.5p.

3. New shareholders currently waiting on the side-lines for the S2 result.

4. Possibly, LTHs who may top up. (Unlikely if they have not topped up since the Percy-1 spud result and sitting on 90% mega losses)

A bad S2 RNS will make the above somewhat mute.

And a mediocre S2 RNS could make CEG a tempting target for a hostile bid, for the reasons stated in my morning post. I consider mediocre to be 60-100boed for S2 with no announcement how this can be improved by technical interventions such as CO2/water injection or future well redesign. If a predator has the know-how, or believes it can find solutions to harvest some of the SWP's 200mboe+, CEG could be game for a hostile M&A.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Have a great Saturday. Lots of footie today.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Shareholders are now getting very very frustrated awaiting news.

1. KEY News: the results of the Saffron 2 testing

IMO other news can wait, such as:

2. How future Saffrons or other SWP drilling will be funded. I’ve made my position clear why I do NOT like the Arena deal based on its risky security requirements and prefer mini farm-outs. (Connected to point 1)

3. A mini-CPR re S2 (Connected to point 1)

4. Suriname

5. Whether the Bahamas licenses are suspended or terminated due to disputed Gov fees

6. The long overdue full Percy-1 autopsy (possibly connected to point 5 for legal reasons)

7. Progress on monetising the Bahamas asset (Connected to points 5 and 6)

8. Stena deal and how it will be funded

9. Financial update (Connected to point 8. Date for the accounts is <30/9/21)

Without spelling out how I know, I suspect due to extremely low trading volume compounded by the lack of news, it’s the same 1-3 traders buying one day and selling the next at a loss to leverage shorting positions using CFDs. Other traders don’t even have to do the actual buying and can instruct a derivatives broker to do so, which they can then borrow against using multiples of the real shares’ price changes. Others, can even leverage shares which have not been purchased, to bet on the SP going down. This is where there’s a potential nasty sting in the tail. A decent RNS early next week will cause havoc to CEG shorting positions with the individuals or orgs being forced to buy on the open market to cover losses.

Although clearly not applicable in CEG’s case, an example of shorting gone wrong was the insolvency of forex traders and CFD derivatives brokers when on 15/1/15 the Swiss Franc unpegged against the Euro making it surge 20% overnight.

Stock market rules dictate a company must inform the market ASAP when news can affect its SP, mainly to avoid leaks/insider trading but also, although rarely enforced, to protect it from claims. I am not suggesting whatsoever CEG is breaking any rules, however if the S2 results are known they should be disclosed ASAP.

IMHO, there is no rational explanation to explain CEG’s current SP and low £13m MCap based on $70 PoO, its c$10m/yr revenues, SWP potential, tax credits, other than SP manipulation during low trading volumes, compounded by a lack of news causing uncertainty.

CEG needs to be cautious. @$70 PoO, IMO it is currently in hostile bid territory for asset stripping. CEG’s c$25m T+T tax credits alone are worth more than its MCap. The possible predator would likely have a regional presence, have cash (or sound shares that can be issued), with offshore spud plans that can help leverage the Stena problem it would inherit. Any bid would have to be at a premium to pass a 75% vote which will NOT go down well with shorters.

Refer to my previous post re Apr 2020 S1 RNS CERP SP surge. I hope S2 is similar.

CEG: RNS please!

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/

Hi Wotitsworth: what news result? I see no RNS from yesterday

thx

Following the S1 discovery, this CERP RNS was issued on 27/4/20: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CERP/saffron-discoveries-lower-cruse-and-middle-cruse/14516801

The result to CERP’s SP?

1. Read https://www.thestkittsnevisobserver.com/tt-oil-find-cause-stock-surge-in-columbus-energy/

2. Analyse the SP from a few days previously and you will note it tripled from a low of 0.91p on 21/4/20 to a high of 2.9p on the day (Source http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/historic-data-CERP-start-60 )

3. Note: After profit taking on the day, CERP closed at 1.83p, double the low of 21/4/20.

4. Note: Between 21/4/20 and the BPC/CERP proposed merger RNS on 11/6/20, the SP generally hovered at 2p or more. (Refer to above and change ‘60’ to ‘30’ at the end)

S2 is S1’s twin, with the emphasis on the lower cruise where production is expected to be 200-300boed. Earth shattering this is not, but it will help de-risk S3-S9 and to a degree the whole SWP with its potential >200mboe, while increasing CEG’s c450boed current production by up to 50% overnight.

But there is a key difference between April 2020 and now….

5. Refer to https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil and note PoO was $25-$30/b due to the pandemic and OPEC+. Although Covid-19 is still with us, there are vaccines and PoO is +/- $70/b.

My conclusion which could win the first prize in ‘a bleedin’ obvious competition’: if S2 testing results meet or exceed expectations, CEG’s SP should increase and perhaps soar over a few days. If S2 doesn’t meet expectations, it will not.

Finally: I believe I’m older than most commentators on this forum and being long in the tooth, somewhat more patient for news than most. And more polite. Even if S2 news is further delayed, or is a total failure which I doubt, I will not tantrum like an 8-year-old, nor take my frustrations out on others with insults and name calling. I state this because according to a post yesterday, I am apparently ‘a joke.’ Karma.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

A PS to my last post: Had Percy-1 been a success, the CERP merger would have been at a de facto price of >£200m based on the likely 2021/2 value of the BPC shares issued for the merger. Instead, those shares are currently worth <£4m. A few folks had trouble understanding the concept and complained about dilution, so I’ll put it another way. If a successful dog food factory in 1921 Germany issued a placing/OO to merge with a Swiss cat food one, some holders on online forums (!) may have complained about share dilution. At the time of the deal $1 equalled 90 Marks. By Nov 1923, $1 was worth 4,210,500,000,000 worthless German marks. So, the merger would have been an act of genius. And so was the BPC/CERP one otherwise CEG would now be bankrupt, because without CERP assets producing c$10m/yr revenue, CEG shares would be worthless.

BurrenBoy: I note you sold yesterday and wish you all the best.

Whatever the complaints against the CEG BoD some may have, IMO the CERP ‘merger’ was an act of GENIUS on their part.

Key observations:

1. It didn’t cost BPC more than a few hundred thousand pounds in real cash reserves to merge and own CERP’s assets.

2. The ‘merger’ was paid for by printing new shares.

3. The professional and commission fees were paid by printing new shares.

4. The severance packages for all CERP BoD members except Leo, and most of the staff were paid by printing new shares.

5. The $2m Lind loan was paid off via Trafalgar by printing new shares.

Result? The above new ‘printed’ shares came to c£24m and the merger happened because CERP was facing a perfect storm at the time with the pandemic, PoO collapse and a debt spiral. BPC was in the right place at the right time, because of its potentially transformational drill. Those new shares at the time valued @ c£24m, could have been worth quarter of a billion today if Percy-1 was a success, but today are only worth £2.4m.

Real world impact? For a de facto cost of £2.4m today mostly paid in new shares worth 10x more at the time, CEG is currently earning almost $10m gross revenue per year. (Refer to my 9/8 post which breaks this down). Even if Saffron 2 is a disaster, which I consider very unlikely as S2 is S1’s twin, based on projected PoO long-term alone, I would argue ex-CERP assets (including their c$25m tax credits) if sold tomorrow, are worth much more than £24m and without doubt more than £2.4m.

Using GG’s recent horse analogy, the jury is still out whether BPC acquired a stable full of CERP thoroughbreds or a horse stud which could produce anything ranging from horse meat for pet food, to a grand national winner. Both scenarios and everything in between, IMO has already justified the merger price, purely on current revenue streams.

As for Leo Koot’s resignation on 25/1/21, I think it was a combination of events: he had been appointed CEO of another company in December; the metal object had fallen down the well; there were going to be Stena cost over-runs; there was the court shenanigans; Lombard were not going to exercise the $5m put/call option; and oil had clearly not been found in commercial quantities by 25/1/21. At the time he probably foresaw massive funding storm clouds looming not only to pay for Percy-1, but to develop and feed his CERP ‘horses’ which was the reason Leo stayed after the merger. After resigning, I do not think he left the office for the last time with a naughty grin on his face because he had knowingly sold some dodgy horses to some mugs and was about to be found out.

All the above was in the past and hindsight is often a cruel judge after-the-event. Today, without CERP, CEG would be bankrupt. It is not. A decent Saffron 2 result (news imminent) will very likely put the company back on track for the future, overnight.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

What would you do if you were CEG? My opinions and commentary in [ ] below

Before issuing the final S2 results in an RNS, if the results appear ‘satisfactory’ or better, would you……

1. Give another interim update on S2, assuming testing has taken longer than planned? [IMO, S2 testing has been completed]

2. Wait until everything is tested and results double-checked and independently verified? [Yes]

3. Undertake a mini-competent person’s report [Yes. If only based on S2, I don’t think it will take more than a few days]

4. Wait until the Arena deal or similar is done and dusted, re future S3-S5 wells? [Possibly. An independent analysis or CPR audit may be a pre-req to a deal anyway, however I do NOT like the deal unless Arena ask for less security. I prefer mini-farm-outs as described in my recent posts.]

5. If you don’t like the final Arena deal or it is not offered, what’s next? [I’d state so in an RNS. If CEG declined the deal, I’d diplomatically say we don’t want another Lombard type ‘have your cake and it’ punitive one, and will go elsewhere. In the meantime, revenue is coming in and additional $$$ from S2. I will applaud the BoD if they walk away from Arena based on the above.]

And……………

6. What would you do if S2 testing results are ‘bad’? [I wouldn’t wait to issue an RNS, especially as there’s a risk news may be leaked. BPC broke the news in Feb re Percy-1 within 24 hours of Stena’s spud-end. Furthermore, it depends on what ‘bad’ means. S2 is S1’s twin, so I very much doubt it’s a total duster with S2 having 300-370 feet of oil-bearing sands. If slightly better than S1 due to the additional well engineering undertaken, I would still do a CPR and attempt mini farm-outs. Note, as I posted a few days ago, in May 2021 TRIN acquired a tiny block c.4 km2 producing a miniscule 83boed for $3.5m, based on potential. (Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/trinity_exploration/news/rns/story/xlqz67w ).

So, what would you do if you were CEG re above? Thoughts?

DYOR. GLA. Have a great day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Srdoddy: Your post yesterday

1. Where did I get $8m/year gross revenue from?

Using the 29/6/21 RNS trading update https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CEG/june-2021-trading-and-corporate-update/15036292 , CEG earned $3.3m gross revenue for 5 months Jan-May 2021. Using simple maths, assuming nothing changed such as PoO (which has increased), then over 12 months Jan – Dec 2021, annual gross revenue should be c$8m.

Using another calc of 450boed x 360 days x average $60 PoO, then the above figure is over $9.7m/year gross for the next 12 months starting today.

To the above calcs, add/deduct if PoO does not average $60. And add Saffron 2 production. For every 46boed @$60 PoO = $1m/yr gross.

Example: if current production is maintained @ 450boed + Saffron 2 @ 200boed @ $70 PoO = $16.4m gross over the next 12 months.

But let’s be daring and pretend you are a giant fairy with a magic wand. And whoooosh, you grant a wish that tomorrow CEG has 8 Saffrons producing 200boed each. This equals >2000boed including current production. 2000 x $70 x 360 days = >$50m/yr gross revenue.

To be clear, gross revenue is what UK annual accounts call ‘sales’. It excludes opex, capex, debt service, $3-4m G&A, royalties/taxes, and legacy Stena debts etc. As a simple guide, assume free cashflow excluding capex or debt service, is half gross revenue. Free cashflow does not mean NET profit, which sometimes pay divis to shareholders. For that to happen before 2025, we will need to phone 1-800-fairywishes.

2. My appraisal of the past

My post reflected specific shareholder demographics. It did not consider your current scenario or many others such as most ex-LGO/CERP LTHs. I am sorry you are sitting on a paper loss. So am I, except my current paper loss is substantially more than yours, however my breakeven point is probably a lot lower. I invested during the OO, the Placing and substantially more afterwards at between 1.9p – 2.7p. Why? Because IMO the massive ex-CERP assets potential shown in my point 1 above (without even a Bahamas farm-in) vs the risk of me losing 100k on top.

3. 6 months Percy-1 anniversary and 1st year BPC/CERP merger birthday.

My recent posts marked exact chronologic events, rather than proposing we take part in a Percy-1 result memorial service or a merger birthday party to celebrate the latter. YET.

All: no S2 update today does not mean there’s a problem but clearly it cannot be ruled out. CEG announced the Percy-1 result within 24 hours of spud-end and didn’t sit on bad news.

Assuming the S2 tests are OK, it could be a CPR is being done, and/or a funding deal being finalised for S3-S5. If no funding announcement in the same RNS, some folks would complain!!! FTR, I have made my position clear in recent posts: I do NOT like the current Arena deal’s security requirements and proposed mini farmouts instead.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

The past

All holders were disappointed exactly 6 months ago when Percy-1 was non-commercial. I certainly was, however it was a known, fully disclosed high risk/high reward bet. It was a certainty the SP would either soar or collapse. On several occasions I stated it could flop to 5p. It was a win or lose like placing a bet on a horse race, or roulette wheel with one exception: the bet was potentially hedged due to ex-CERP assets. Without the CERP merger, CEG would be bankrupt due to cost overrun. At the current $8m/yr gross, it is not.

Leading up to 8/2/21, any holder who had invested prior to 2020 @20p (eg OO Nov 2019) or less, had ample opportunities to have made a nice profit by cashing out. I didn’t, but some did. Others traded the stock to attempt a free carry, lower their averages, or to profit from the ups and downs. EG, due to the covid delay March to May 2020 when the SP was @11p-14p. It was mainly traders who vigorously complained on BBs about overhangs every time a placing or CLN was announced, despite these never being less than 20p (converted) since 2019, to fund the spud. To a lesser degree, some LTH non-traders complained about share dilution, yet despite this the SP generally hovered at the 20p price or more, with many chances to cash-out pre-result.

Now

Holders, even ex-holders prior to 8/2/21 have every right to know details. c$150m of their money was spent, hence the right to have a detailed report, an update on the WPS found, and whether there has been JV interest. This delay is likely due to the Gov having the right to the data before it’s made public. And due to the current administration’s publicly stated contempt for drilling and alleged license fees owed, CEG has no intent to provide it until these matters are clarified. I would like a diplomatically written RNS ASAP of where we stand warts and all explaining if the license has been terminated or suspended. The market currently values this IP as zero anyway, so why not issue an RNS?

Soon

S2 results are due. With 300-370 feet of sands, IMHO it is unlikely to be a total failure. Considering it is S1’s twin, I see the worst-case to be very low extraction rates with the possibility of modern tech optimizing recovery. In that scenario, it is unlikely Arena would advance $10m, and if they did it would be too risky for CEG to accept. There is an alternative: FARM-OUT.

Precedent: In May 2020, TRIN acquired a tiny block c.4 km2 producing a miniscule 83boed for $3.5m, based on potential. (Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/trinity_exploration/news/rns/story/xlqz67w ). Using that as an indicative valuation, what if S2 is 100boed, 200 or 300…. multiplied by S3-S9? What about the whole SWP CEG has rights to, with potentially >200mboe?

As posted on several occasions in the last few days, I very much prefer mini-farm-outs to doing a deal with Arena.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

This weekend will mark 6 months to the day the Percy-1 result was announced on 8/2/21, and 12 months to the day BPC merged with CERP on 7/8/20.

A nice Saffron 2 RNS on Monday would be great to mark the 1st birthday after the merger. If the S2 result is decent, it wouldn’t surprise me if a CPR is announced at the same time. I would think a CPR will be a mandatory pre-req to a funding deal anyway.

Unless CEG can get the Arena deal with less security, I hope it NEVER gets signed, even if we must wait for S3-S5. In fact, a CPR showing 5-10mboe 2P reserves can be RBL’d at between $1m-$2m per 1mboe, subject to a decent balance sheet. If Stena is paid in shares, CEG will have a few million to strengthen it, and potentially get a less dilutive RBL/asset infrastructure loan. Even then, if I was the CEG BoD I would initially do one new Saffron, two at a push to minimise risk.

The alternative approach which I posted about recently, is to farm-out all Saffron/SWP exploration, appraisal, and production to several local players such as TXP, TRIN, PRD with a deadline of 31/12/22 to spud and appraise. By 2023/4 CEG could become a cash cow, and the market would likely price in some of the potential revenue immediately, upon announcement of such a deal(s).

Clearly, most of the above will be somewhat irrelevant if S2 fails to deliver.

Changing the subject, I am still perplexed why SING became the 9th CEG MM on 29 June yet have apparently remained inactive trading CEG since then by ‘hovering’ at the bottom of the bid/buy list. IMO, the current volume, and value of CEG trading does not justify a new MM at this time. I posted 3 possible reasons on that date. Here is a 4th. WITHOUT. starting a rumour of a hostile bid (if S2 testing is inconclusive), it is interesting that Singer Capital Markets are also MMs for TXP, TRIN and PRD. (Source 2nd level console OR go to https://www.londonstockexchange.com/trade/market-making > click download list). If S2 is inconclusive and the SP substantially spikes soon after, it could be indicative of a dawn raid by a predator directly or indirectly building a position over a few days until a holding disclosure of >3% or >5% is issued, followed by a bid announcement at a premium to seduce votes.

I expect we will get an RNS of the S2 results early in the week, and possibly a CPR if the outcome merits it.

DYOR. GLA. Have a great Saturday

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Linton: All LTHs appreciate the fact you batted for BPC on the other wild west forum above and beyond, despite insults, goading, vile abuse and trolling by alleged share manipulators. Some have apparently and allegedly been banned for life. A polite personal request: please do not refer to me as ‘Starfish.’ It has obscene connotations which I only discovered a few months ago. Especially so due to my cultural and biological heritage. GL

Refer to https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/allonred85/ to understand a bit about h/er background, style of posting and purported expertise in exotic trading. ‘Allonred’ also implies he regularly shorts. On GGP 4/7 he wrote…’I have been shorting this share to the tune of 30m plus shares….’

Leaving aside his personal insults, here is a summary according to this ‘’expert’ with my commentary in [ ]

1. saffron2 drill is not transformational. […compared to an offshore find or revenue, I agree. However the de-risking aspects for future Saffrons/SWP and a CPR increasing 2P will be great]

2. there is such an overhang of shares in here i couldn't possibly predict when these would be cleared. […..An overhang will happen at 3.5p+ unless a good RNS appears. Between now and 3.5p there will be some profit taking, unless holders who bought recently wait]

3. There are various ways to "prove" your [shorting] opinion. Why did you not do this? Euroclear publish stock on loan and regulation require anybody short more than 0.1% to declare their position. Many, many avenues you could have got short information from yet you didn't... […..Welcome to AIM! Disclosures are often ignored]

4. The share went down because investors were sick to the back teeth of it [….leaving aside emotional rhetoric, some probably executed stop losses. But see https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG.L/history?p=CEG.L and note the very low trading volume since early June. It is easy to nudge the SP lower and make money on CFD/derivatives.]

5. They were short prior to the open offer as it was as clear as day BPC or Challenger would need more money. The shares undertaken as part of the open offer were used to close the short position without having to buy on the open market and spike the price […possibly true and in line with my thinking but using a different trigger to lower the SP. Monecor did NOT have a collective epiphany to take part in the placing, dump gazillions of shares, but keep 9m just in case! Perhaps he can prove it by following his own advice in point 3 and posting a link]

Summary: IMO allinred is shorting CEG and got rattled because the SP went up 13.5%. I also wonder why such an ‘expert’ only started posting 6 weeks ago.

Other reasons some unlikely that cannot be ruled out, assuming a PI or org has substantial wealth and is willing to lose money:

a. Spite [‘I lost money with LGO/CERP/BPC/CEG and want to hurt CEG so it has difficulty getting funding at 4.2p or doing a Stena deal with shares’]

b. Ideological reasons to hurt CEG [ Attempting an injunction in Dec probably cost more money than buying/selling CEG at a loss since June]

c. It is in their interests for negotiation purposes to have an artificially lower SP now

d. A possible T/O, possibly hostile at x2 SP now (at least >3.5p to get more votes).

A decent S2 RNS will make the above somewhat mute

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Yesterday’s 13.5% increase is a step in the right direction. CEG even made 7th spot in the all AIM risers table https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-aim-all-share/constituents/risers-and-fallers-and-volume-leaders

What remains baffling is why CEG’s SP nudged its way down from the OO/Placing price of 3.5p to sub 2p. Especially during an imminent spud when a SP usually increases. When an OO is announced, the SP often falls to the offer price, or thereabouts. Most complaints come from traders due to overhangs and NOT a 40% fall on the OO price! The April OO was discounted based on expert advice so it would succeed. The uptake was 38% from holders and the balance from the placing. So, it did. (In Nov 2019, a similar OO had a 49% uptake, with the balance via a placing. See https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/challenger_energy_group/news/rns/story/x28y2mx ).

I gave opinions why the SP fell to sub 2p: mainly manipulation during low volume trading, by selling physical shares at a loss to make substantial profit shorting via virtual CFDs/derivatives. There was no bad news to trigger the fall, just a lack of news. Some may argue the Bahamas license uncertainty contributed to the fall, to which I would counter that the market has valued this as zero anyway.

What’s happened has happened. I hope the SP recovers to at least the OO 3.5p price ASAP, and substantially higher subject to positive news on various fronts, specifically the imminent S2 results. 200-300boed is not earth shattering on par with finding >200mboe offshore. However a successful S2 is a step towards several Saffrons and ultimately de-risking the south west peninsula, with its >200mboe onshore potential….. and Auctus’ £220m-£320m Mcap valuation for ex-CERP assets alone.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Fatalcharm: Your satirical comment yesterday was funny! I find pumpanddump totally bizarre. When clicking on the link, it ‘thinks’ for 5 secs then provides a list of POSSIBLE manipulators. IMO, no one in the current top 20 switches sentiment from buy to sell. In fact most currently post negativity. I think all it does is count the number of posts (ONLY on LSE and not advfn!) or word counts otherwise I wouldn’t be at the top with my 1 or 2 posts a day. I doubt it uses word triggers to deduce if a poster is ramping or deramping. If it does, it’s not very good at it. If you want to have some fun, post a one liner every day on another BB you have shares in that has very little commentary and within a week you could be in the gold medal spot!

We appear to be of the same vintage and brought up to be polite and show appreciation to others. This doesn’t make us weak, flirty (‘let’s get a room’) or lapdogs. Those who insult fellow CEG holders, appear to forget there are real human beings behind the avatars… who have feelings and also currently sitting on substantial paper losses.

Very sad news. Deepest condolences to Bruce’s family, friends and colleagues. It puts everything into perspective including whether a share price goes up or down a few pips.

GLA

[LLL: I never owned ANY LGO/CERP shares until July 2020. In fact, in June 2020 prior to the BPC merger I did a tongue in cheek AI experiment, by posting the following TWICE in a week on the CERP BB. Copy below]

An open letter to an Artificial ‘Intelligence’ Bot re CERP

Dear AI Bot

According to the website pumpdedordumped com, I am number 178 in the all time list of ramping or de-ramping CERP. Apparently, and I quote from the above,…. ‘Ramping data is collected via Natural Language processing - Sentiment analysis - Keywords - copy paste posts - repetitive content and is fully automated AI code. No humans keep lists’

You must be a highly intelligent Bot, however clearly have a few screws or binary bits missing. I wish to bring to your attention the following:

1. I have never owned, directly or indirectly a CERP share in my life. As such why would I ramp or de-ramp CERP?

2. I have never posted any recommendation to buy or sell a CERP share in my life.

3. I only started posting on the LSE CERP forum approx. 1 week ago due the proposed BPC merger.

4. I note you automatically and cunningly analyse ‘sentiment’. Unfortunately, if I typed what I felt about you, I would be banned from this forum for life and likely end up in jail.

5. Do you have a bot lawyer? If not you better get one, as I’m considering suing your sorry little bot ar+e (bot bottom).

6. Go back to bot school.

To test your bot intelligence, the following five statements are to see if I can get in the top 100 in your CERP list with just ONE POST which I will copy/paste once:

(a) I think CERP is the most amazing stock in the world. It will soar in value this week. Buy now before it is too late otherwise you will cry.

(b) I highly recommend this wonderful stock. Buying CERP now will make you a millionaire.

(c) Any person (such as me) NOT owning CERP shares is clearly an idiot or mentally deranged.

(d) If CERP was alive and a woman of childbearing age, I would want to father its lovechild. We will call the baby CERPY.

(e) I am related to Brigadier General Balawanga Bo+lockpeedongo (retired) who has genuine CERP insider information, and gave me this incredible share tip, so hurry.

Starchild

[PS LLL: Some persons on public forums manipulate sentiment to pump then dump, by jumping from ‘strong buy’ to ‘sell’ depending on their trading strategy. They often post multiple times a day. Some get banned for life and risk prosecution. The only times I have marked my posts ‘strong buy’, is when I believed it to be true. IMHO it will not take much good news, to move the SP back above 5p and more, quite quickly, however CEG is a speculative share and not for widows and orphans, so always DYOR DYOR DYOR. FTR, I bought another 101,000 shares yesterday and willing to take the risk.

I repeat again: I am not paid to post by CEG or anyone. I have never posted on LSE prior to doing so as ‘Starchild’. And to be labelled a pied piper is offensive]

LLL: No. I’m not a reincarnation of ‘Honest John.’ It’s the sort of name a somewhat dodgy used car dealer in the suburbs of Melbourne would use. FTR, I’ve never posted on LSE prior to my forum birth as ‘Starchild.’

Tonsan: In March, the legacy Percy-1 debt was stated at $14m of which $7m was disputed. However, we do not know how much had been paid by 31/5/21 leaving a CEG cash balance of c$10m on that date. Furthermore, there was no detailed breakdown as to whether the disputed amounts were with suppliers other than Stena. It depends on who caused the metal object to fall down the well hole. Was it a Stena contractor or a 3rd party such as a Halliburton contractor? In a May presentation, Eytan stated oil spill disasters were insured, but this type of accident was not. I assume this is from CEG’s point of view because accident and negligence insurance is generally automatically carried by contractors, in the same way home or office insurance policies usually have provisions for several million in the event a cleaning lady breaks her back due to non-criminal negligence on the part of the policy holder.

Bohemia: your reference to TRIN was interesting. In May, they acquired a tiny block c.4 km2 producing a miniscule 83boed for $3.5m, based on its perceived under-developed potential. (Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/trinity_exploration/news/rns/story/xlqz67w ). I believe this reinforces my suggestion that CEG should ‘franchise’ out future SWP/Saffron 3-9 exploration and production. Rather than use its own Capex doing so or risk the Arena quasi RBL/CLN going bad, CEG should offer mini farm-outs to several local players such as TRIN who can see the 230mboe potential. My 2 previous posts briefly describe the idea’s general blueprint.

As an important side point, it is worth looking at the recent TRIN deal in context of the Saffron 2 pending result. A tiny block producing 83boed x $30 x 360 is approximately $1m/year net free cashflow with an ROI in 3-4 years. Even if TRIN have been sold a dodgy deal by Honest John’s Trinidadian relatives, TRIN will likely be able to recoup their Capex and more, assuming PoO remains at >$60 for a few years. If Saffron 2 averages 200-300 boed long-term that would be excellent, especially as it will help de-risk S3-S9, however it will still generate a ROI, even at 100boed.

If BPC had not merged with CERP almost 12 months ago to the day, or PoO was stuck at $40-$45/boe, CEG would be in deep doo doo. It is certainly not the case yet, based on ex-CERP assets’ mega potential and current gross production generating $8m/year.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

LGO-fan: To justify my case further, I would add, why seek one farm-in partner for SWP when we could have 7 for Saffron 3-9? The deal could be a ‘pay to play’ deposit on signature, proof of Capex availability at +/- $3m each, and a spud by end of 2022. Result: 9 saffrons in a franchise type arrangement, rather than waiting 3-4 years for a full field development with its associated capex risks and delays. Upon each successful Saffron, the farmee would have first dibs at wells and developments nearby.

Win big or lose little.

GL

Starchild