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Flash correction to my last post in case it effects CEG’s SP at 0800am Monday based on a rare research error on my part.

I can’t believe it’s not butter, although a margarine, is not made from crude oil chemicals………. It’s made from vegetable oils………..such as coconuts.

I trust this post avoided you making a catastrophic trading decision to double your CEG holdings. DYOR, but perhaps wait until the Saffron result this week until doing so.

Have a nice Saturday. GLA

Starchild

Although our focus is currently on the Saffron 2 result, let’s not forget the potential interest in a Bahamas farm-in.

Refer to https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Its-Too-Late-To-Avoid-A-Major-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html as It puts forward some interesting opinions shared by other experts. I quote key points:

• ‘The level of drilling and by extension capital investment [by majors] is insufficient and has been for a number of years to sustain oil production at current levels’

• ‘[Super-Majors are] all prime targets of the anti-oil movement, have reduced their capital allocation toward petroleum, exited businesses or converted petroleum assets like refineries to renewables, and sold assets that a few years ago might have contributed to oil and gas inventories.’

• ‘As the well inventory ages, production rates will decline, and without new wells to replace them, the overall output must go down’

• [At $70+ PoO] Drilling will likely increase, no doubt. But the industry has changed in the last couple of years and the ability to field 1,100+ rigs, and 450 frac spreads just isn't there. Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry.

• ‘Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600B short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030’

My take: The majors have NOT experienced a collective epiphany and decided never to drill for new offshore mega targets again. I’m 100% in favour of green energy but the world needs oil for chemicals, fertilizer, clothes, and plastics. I’m not aware of any tech that can provide these using solar panels. I can’t believe margarines such as ‘I can’t believe it’s not butter’, can be produced with wind turbines.

Key points: Subject to gov license renewal and the Percy-1 autopsy, I have made arguments over the last few days in 4 connected posts, how and why majors could benefit from a CEG farm-in. Or at least seduce them into the CEG/Gneiss data room. IMO, the above article reinforces the case. Last time a major did so in 2018, the MCap hit £156m (= c20p SP today). And this was without ex-CERP assets’ potential or PoO plausibly hitting $100b+. Refer to https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ for this research.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild

PS Thebhoys: Respectfully, the ‘size of my coconuts’ ie wealth or lack-thereof, is my business. I note you still hold CEG shares. So do I, approaching 5m as four separate but interconnected virtual investments. Why attack a fellow shareholder with snide comments, repeatedly doubting my motives and integrity? Is it not like having a bad day in the office and taking it out on your family? I believe this link is applicable: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olGim6tf6tc&t=42s Have a nice day.

Saffron 2 cost CEG $3m capex. Assuming $70 PoO , less $20 extraction costs = $50 gross profit per boe.,….
• 100boed: $50x100x360= $1.8m/yr

• 200boed: $50x200x360= $3.6m/yr

• 300boed: $50x300x360= $5.4m /yr

Deduct from the above gross profit:
(a) Additional G&A unless partly included in the $20 above

(b) Well maintenance, repair, weather downtime

(c) Transportation

(d) Storage if applicable (why sell for $70 if $80+ on the horizon?)

(e) Taxes and royalties. Although CEG is sitting on an $85m tax credit as at 31/12/19, some payments are due on every barrel. At >$75 PoO, an additional 18% SPT is due for $75+. It used to be @$50+ in CERP days.

Rhetorical questions:
1. How quickly will CEG get an ROI on its $3m capex if S2 production is 100, 200, or 300boed? I would argue even if only 100boed, an ROI can be achieved in 2-3 years subject to PoO >$65.

2. How fast can CEG self-fund Saffron 2-9?

3. When will an updated CPR be done for reserves?

4. When should CEG access reserve based or infrastructure lending?

5. Will pre-pay be used as in a bull market it may be inexpensive. Or store some crude in anticipation of a PoO increase?

6. And/or will CEG use its Bizzell facility in full or in part by the 31/7/21 deadline, where the funding bar is currently set to 8p SP? Remember the Bizzell deal is a slightly unusual CLN as only a maximum half can be converted to shares, the rest is a traditional repayable loan using shares as security (at 12% if I recall).

Depending on the answers, will CEG hit its target of 2500boed by Dec 2021? And if it does (or is projected to do so by 1Q 2022), where will the SP be by year end assuming PoO is +/- $70/b? What if it’s $90? And what if CEG gets a Bahamas farm-in 4th qtr?

Yesterday, more than 25% of all trades were mine as I purchased 500k more shares in 5 x 100k chunks. Why?

My analysis: PoO will meander its way to a large increase, Saffron 2 will NOT be a failure, Stena will settle in cash/shares, the Percy-1 autopsy will be OK, and the Bahamas license will be renewed opening the door to farm-in interest. In the unlikely event the Gov does not renew, CEG will sue for gazillions all the way to the Privy Council (if need be) which will be settled out of court (re-instatement of licenses, CEG concessions and cash) if the opposition wins the May election.

Refer to my previous posts for in-depth analysis, but always DYOR and make your own trading decisions, as I could have misread the tea leaves.

Watch this space.

IMHO. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Bohemia: your figures do not add up again. If 200,000boed, royalties are 12.5% for first 75k, then 15% for the next 75k, then 17.5% for the next 50k. Average 14.69%! Plenty of pie for CEG to share with a major and Gov, to make everyone fat and happy. Comparable, if better ROI for a UK major with a 75%-25% split vs 100% North Sea.

Bohemia: Respectfully, I find you recent posts a little irritating especially as you admit to shorting CEG with an open CFD. And you read my comments as if they are an RNS and analyse every word in 3D.

I believe your last post is flawed. Why?

Firstly lets agree to agree on one point: Norway vs UK/Bahamas tax/royalties are punitive.

Secondly I disagree with your comment UK vs Bahamas royalties/taxes are similar. Refer to https://www.gov.uk/topic/oil-and-gas/finance-and-taxation for real time UK tax intel. The facts:

UK taxes
1. UK tax is 30% for HC companies

2. UK supplementary tax is 10%

3. PRT was abolished since 2016, however if PoO hits $100+ boe long-term this will likely be reassessed by the UK Gov. But for now, let’s assume it is zero.

Bahamas royalties

1. You wrongly stated the royalty rate is 20%. This is NOT TRUE. Refer to page 8 in a blast-from-the-past presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/07/07132756/firstenergy_conference_london_-_september_2011___2mb.pdf

2. The Bahamas rates are between 12.5% and 25% plus ZERO corporation tax.

3. A decent FPSO can harvest 100k-150k boed. So…..

4. IF CEG makes a future massive discovery with a farm-in partner (Percy-2), the royalty rate is 12.5% - 15% unless there are 2 FPSOs harvesting oil which would risk giving the Bahamas Gov and enviro activists an aneurism. I can’t imagine 2 or 3 FPSOs bobbling up and down the sea within a few miles of each other being approved in the current climate.

Key conclusions

• IMO, a UK based major will potentially be better off (net profit) if it owns 75% of Bahamas production vs 100% in the North Sea. A Norwegian based major would be much better off.

• The major could save on extraction costs due to Bahamas’ proximity to USA infrastructure (vs an ultra-deep sea well in the middle of nowhere). Possibly $30-35/boe extraction cost.

• At 12.5%-15% royalty rates, with CEG keeping a 25% interest, a major can get a very good ROI

• CEG shareholders would do very well from future dividends

• The gov could pay off its national debt or open a sovereign wealth fund

• And if PoO hits $100+, it’s a win win for everyone.

The above form very strong USPs when CEG executives pitch to the majors. I would cheekily argue even an intellectually gifted DOLPHIN trained in basic sales skills could close the deal. (Super smart dolphin? Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMZ7oOCXfP8 )

Assuming the license is renewed in approx 2 weeks and the Percy-1 autopsy meets or exceeds expectations, why wouldn’t majors want access to the data-room? And why wouldn’t they bid to pay some up-front CEG back-costs, especially if seduced with CEG shares and a chance to benefit from a fully funded Uruguay spud and discovery? Caveat: I could be wrong an no farm-in happens, so DYOR.

IMHO. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ppalmer: Fret not. Your BPC shares have been converted to CEG shares (the renamed company) and converted 10:1. As for these being worthless, it depends what happens in the next few months. Refer to my post from last week on expected newsflow and DYOR rather than relying on anyone pro or against CEG on this BB. GL!

All: The delayed buy/sell for c£100k yesterday was almost certainly an interconnected transaction (including a small fee) and therefore somewhat irrelevant. For example a PI moving shares to/from and ISA with the participation of their service provider. Or moving nominee held shares to another provider. The 2 transactions did not even register on the LSE. Had these been real, from 2 different non-connected parties and by pure coincidence for the same number of shares, the bid/ask would have changed substantially depending on timing, based on the 4m volume.

A clarification on my post yesterday morning. ‘North Sea royalties’ should have been stated as ‘North Sea royalties and direct/indirect taxes’. Bahamas taxes + royalties are a lot less compared to how much majors pay to the UK and Norway etc. This is only fair considering the Bahamas is a wild cat region with CEG shareholders taking all the risk for eventual success. Had these eventual gov payments been higher, it is unlikely CEG (BPC then) would have taken the risk unless PoO was expected to remain at $100/b+ for decades. They took the risk at the agreed royalty/tax rate in good faith knowing there was scope to share the risk/reward with a farm-in partner, and the pie was big enough to do so commercially.

Parpaing: very gracious of you to recommend I should be a NED on the CEG BoD. I would ensure 2 RNSs a DAY! Alas, in the unlikely event it was offered I would be a bit embarrassed if I were named in an RNS at 0700, and by 0900 the CEG SP collapsed. An alternative to create publicity and keep my anonymity is the RNS could state ‘Starchild’, however I suspect this will fall foul of many AIM disclosure requirements, although mainstream media would probably write articles due to this absurdity, which could help publicity!

Be assured, the company does read these message boards. I’ve heard from 2 reliable sources that some deleted posts across these BBs are reported by AIM companies direct to LSE and in some cases commentators have been banned. Freedom of speech allows for negativity, but not manipulation (pump, dump and pump again), corporate/BoD libel or blatantly false information to influence market sentiment.

Furthermore, I have and do continue to email suggestions to senior CEG execs and have spoken confidentially to two BoD members and one senior exec over the last few months. During those calls I have never been given insider information. I would never disclose some of the more sensitive matters I asked to be discussed or certain suggestions I proposed.

GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Two separate interesting research notes below. They are non-connected, other than they impact CEG.

‘The last oil boom insight’

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2021/preparation-for-last-oil-price-boom

The article suggests an oil boom is about to take place. Majors have substantially cut back on exploration capex based on covid-19 demand destruction and from environmental pressure to diversify from HCs. If the Percy-1 autopsy meets expectations, CEG has 2 advantages ‘selling’ a farm-in to an oil major:

1. Proximity to US markets and infrastructure

2. Net return to a major. All operate internationally and many of their producing oil fields or 100% owned prospects are in regions where gov royalties and taxes are punitive. Even if CEG retains 25% after a Bahamas farm-in, a strong case can be made that the major will be left with more net revenue per boe compared to its fully owned licenses where royalties alone are punitive. For example, the North Sea. Even if CEG gets 25% after ALL capex recouped, the major will be left with more net profit per boe.

Also watch Dr Zak Phillips’ 10 min interview from March 2020 proposing the possibility of $100/b+ PoO in 2022/23. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914647/oil--may-rebound-above-us100-by-2022-due-to-lack-of-investment---proactive-s-zac-phillips-914647.html

Slightly off-topic, the main argument from anti-oil enviros is pollution, greenhouse emissions and global warming. To a lesser extent, concerns that an oil tanker or platform can explode or sink resulting in a mega spill. Even if new tech can create cheap clean alternative fuels, the world needs oil for foodstuffs, fertilizers, plastics and chemicals.

Trinidad’s SWP potential

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Trinidad-Trinidad-New-energy-to-low-cost-low-risk-region.pdf

The article provides insight into SWP peninsula’s potential. CERP is mentioned 18 times and worth a read. IMO, if Saffron 2 meets or exceeds expectations next week, the 200-300boed additional production is OK (a +/- 50% increase to now), but the gamechanger is the potential de-risking of 9 Saffron lookalikes, which could open the door to reserve based lending subject to a CPR.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Fatalcharm: I’m grateful to your recent positive comments. There’s a small group of posters on this BB who bombard CEG negativity giving the impression they are the many. Some openly admit to shorting, or just want a lower entry price; others are angry ex-CERP/BPC holders who all repeatedly doubt my motives. I have invested >£300k on CEG and have several million shares, but I am NOT a paid publicist nor get paid to post on this forum. My 1 or 2 researched posts a day written in good faith is because it kept me sane during lockdown, I enjoy doing so and believe there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. But that’s just my opinion.

Over the last few mornings, I wrote three interconnected in-depth posts on the possibility of a Bahamas Farm-in. Although shareholders’ short term focus is Trinidad news (RNS update arrived today), what triggered those posts was a recent article https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/06/08101654/Upstream-Article-4-June-21.pdf on CEG’s continued intent to get a Bahamas partner.

My interconnected posts

• ‘IF (part 1)’: Friday 03:32

• ‘IF (part 2) The Plan’: Saturday 03:43

• ‘Can CEG ‘sell’ a farm-in?’: Sunday 2021 07:22

I invite real shareholders to read them and provide constructive feedback, if not already done.

The elevator pitch of my 3 posts

I attempted to value CEG’s potential based on precedent, analysts’ opinions, and lots of Ifs. I then put forward a case how a farm-in with a major including some back-costs can be structured to give the farmee a potential massive ROI across CEG’s portfolio. I attempted to justify how the farmee could hedge its CEG bet and substantially subsidise its Bahamas Percy-2 spud Capex. The key: for the major (or consortium of large investors), to be given free shares as a sweetener. The example I gave was the farmee would pay CEG $50m towards $150m for its back-costs, but in addition to owning 75% of a Bahamas future success, it would be given 90m news shares (c10% of the company).

If the above was announced in an RNS, the SP currently <3p would surge TWICE. Why?

Firstly, with $50m in the bank, CEG would have the funds to spud Uruguay which it would own 100% at the asset level.

Secondly, leading to both FULLY FUNDED and committed spuds, CEG’s Uruguay one (100% owned) and the farmee’s Percy-2 spud (CEG 25% owned) the SP will surge further leading to the spud results.

The 90m free shares would at that time be worth a substantial sum and should the farmee decide to de-risk some of them, it would make a huge ROI to subsidise the Percy-2 spud capex. It would be a good risk/reward hedge.

As a separate side-point, I put forward the case using precedent from Aug 2018, how CEG’s Mcap could reach £156m again (worth c20P SP today) or more, purely on an RNS announcement a major was sniffing around the Percy-1 autopsy data room.

I invite you to read those 3 posts. Caveat: I am not making a prediction a farm-in will happen, merely providing rationale arguments why CEG is in a quite unique position to leverage one and how IMHO it can be structured.

Have a great day. DYOR and GL

Starchild

Assuming the Bahamas license is renewed, and the Percy-1 autopsy meets expectations, what is CEG’s next objective? To get majors in the data room. If they like the data or intrigued with what lies at the Jurassic level, they may want to play.

1. Precedent: in Aug 2018 a major paid $1m for exclusivity. Result: the SP soared and BPC’s MCap hit £156m. This is c20p SP today as there’s c800m shares. It could be argued, if this happened tomorrow, the MCap could go even higher as there were no CERP assets nor Uruguay then.

My ‘cunning’ plan posted yesterday, was a conceptual one and not a prediction. The ideal farm-in will be at the asset level only and for CEG to receive cash towards its $150m back costs. The alternative will be to leverage new shares as incentive. Although dilutive, it doesn’t cost CEG anything, and the SP will rise due to 2 fully funded mega spuds.

2. Precedent: a mini-me version was attempted with Stena for 10% at the asset or share level in return for $10m. (Source 26/5/20 RNS, section ‘Investment options’ https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/challenger_energy_group/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w )

Potential ROI could be good to a major (or consortium of investors GNEISS could seek) as CEG will have the capital to spud Uru-1, develop ex-CERP assets, and/or M&A. Nothing will compel the major to keep its shares as they will still own substantial asset level rights.

3. Fact: fully funded mega spuds usually result in massive SP rises leading to the result. The major could sell its shares and recoup capex leading to spuds x 2. This is not fleecing PIs who love to have a flutter with the hope of a 10-20x bagger.

BUT do majors pay cash for non-commercially proven acreage?

Yesterday, according to a self-professed farm-in ‘expert’ who regularly posts negative CEG commentary (and I suspect has no CEG shares), the answer is NO. Perhaps s/he should offer CEG h/er consulting services to put them straight.

Rebuttals

a. CEG believes Bahamas can be monetized. If impossible, this implies incompetence, inexperience (for chasing rainbows), or misleading investors.

b. Royalty rates are decent for JV pie sharing.

c. North Cuba is near USA infrastructure.

d. CEG believes a farm-in can be done for Uruguay (probably leverage for the above). It would have been daft to commit $1m for Uru-1 and akin to paying a $1m deposit on a property deal, with no hope of ever getting the $40m funds to complete the purchase.

e. Farm-ins happen all the time. Examples: https://keyfactsenergy.com/news/?news_type=5 . You will note not all deals disclose the cash terms nor the major involved.

f. What if PoO reaches $100?

Bottom line: depending on the Percy-1 autopsy, I believe farm-in deal can be done at the asset and/or share level by leveraging CEG’s asset potential. And an RNS stating a major is in the data room will surge the SP.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Let’s be polite.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profil

Refer to yesterday’s IF (Part 1), otherwise this post will make no sense.

If I were an advisor to CEG execs, I would recommend the following CUNNING PLAN and help implement it:

Assumptions:

1. The Bahamas Gov renews licenses on 1/7/21

2. The Percy-1 autopsy meets expectations

3. Pro-analysts independently verify the figures

CEG is arguably unique for a small AIM oil company. It is producing little although its potential for growth is good based on ex-CERP assets. However, it owns two huge assets: high risk/reward exploration licenses in Bahamas and Uruguay acreage with very little capital to develop them. The sum of the parts can possibly be leveraged to give a major (‘BigCo’) the opportunity to recoup all its capex in the event Percy-2 is a DUSTER. How?

I will use example figures to illustrate the plan.

1. BigCo acquires 75% rights to Percy-2’s future discoveries and production for 90m CEG shares

2. BigCo’s 90m CEG shares will be @40p each, resulting in CEG receiving c$50m cash. This is approx one third of Percy-1 back-costs

3. BigCo will commit to spud Percy-2 in 2022/3 which will cost c$50m

4. CEG will commit to pay all costs to spud Uru-1, from the above $50m

5. BigCo will have spent $100m inc Bahamas rights, spud and 90m CEG shares

6. BigCo can sell the shares at any time without it effecting their Bahamas rights

7. If BigCo wants to keep its shares, it will get a huge ROI if Uru-1 is a success. If Percy-2 is a success, BigCo will get a double whammy both from its 75% rights and CEG shares.

8. If BigCo wants to de-risk all or some of its shares it could potentially do so at up to double the 40p price. Why? With 2 fully funded billion-barrel spuds, CEG’s SP will SOAR with PI FEEDING FRENZY approaching both spud dates which should be timed at about the SAME TIME.

The outcome

9. CEG gets 2 company making mega spuds for ‘free’ paid for by BigCo.

10. BigCo can potentially sell its shares for +/-$100m during pre-spud excitement, which will mean the Percy-2 spud will have cost them ZERO with a potential massive ROI if commercial.

Key point: refer to yesterday’s ‘IF part 1’. If you disagree with my SP/Mcap figures, use yours and adapt the above. I’m illustrating a generic plan and it’s up to pro-analysts to recommend the actual figures.

If you are BigCo what can possibly be the downside? Win big or potentially lose zero. Which of these top 250 will FIGHT to get into the data room first? https://www.spglobal.com/platts/top250/rankings Last time was Aug 2018 and Mcap hit £156m! (= c20p today)

When playing Chess, an innocuous pawn move, 5 moves previously can be a game changer. In CEG’s case this may have been Uruguay, which is why CEG’s overall portfolio is quite unique and could be leveraged. Checkmate.

Opinions to test this plan welcome.

DYOR. GLA.

Starchild (or Baldrick?)
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Stena can do Uru-1 spud if th

Plausible events that could trigger a CEG SP surge, with the caveat I’m not predicting it will, nor posting a DEFCON 1 nuclear ramp:

Firstly, lets deal with MCap rather than SP, and work backwards. Secondly six IFs are needed, for all the CEG ducks to line up:

1. If the Bahamas license is renewed on 1/7/21

2. If the Percy-1 autopsy meets expectations

3. If a farm-in happens involving a free Bahamas drill and cash for at least 33% of $150m back-costs paid: $50m

4. If CEG retains 25% of the Bahamas asset

5. If CEG states it will self-fund a Uruguay spud from point 3 cash (>1Bboe)

6. If Trinidad + Suriname = TOTAL success

Based on analysts’ predictions leading to the 2020 Percy-1 spud, the MCap was estimated to reach c£200m. Due to the LOL overhang and EA court case, it only reached £110m on 21/1/21 (2.35p x 4.7B shares). Note: On 4/2/11 it peaked at 25.7p/£220m Mcap. And in Aug 2018 reached £156m when a major was in the data room pre CERP merger.

Key point 1: What if an RNS states a major is in the data room again? Undisputed fact: £156m Mcap was reached with the HOPE of a farm-in. If this precedent is repeated = 20p SP.

IF 1-6 happen?

(a) Uruguay spud 2022, 100% owned, fully funded. I’ve used Percy-1 analysts’ pre-spud value of £200m, as Uru-1 is its twin.

(b) Bahamas Percy-2 spud, 25% owned, free drill(s). £200m (Xref key point 1)

(c) Valuation of ex-CERP assets? In Dec 2020 Auctus proposed £250m-300m MCap for ex-CERP assets alone. If CEG reaches 2500/boed end 2021, with 4000/boed in 2022 and $25m/yr free cash, as PoO is higher, I’ll use Auctus’ £300m valuation.

(d) Positive market sentiment knowing an OO/Placing/CLN will unlikely ever happen creates uplift to MCap. My guess: £50m

Key point 2: A + B + C + D = £750m Mcap. 1B shares inc Bizzell, warrants, options and a Stena settlement = 75p SP. BUT, to be conservative let’s call it 50p.

As I’m having an ‘IF’ fest, I’ll use a few more using Kipling’s words, with minor edits …

‘…..If you can make one heap of all your winnings and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can talk with CEG de-rampers and keep your virtue, or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither shorters nor ex-LTHs can hurt you, if all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute with sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it, and which is more you’ll be a Man, my son…..’

Key point 3: The above 50p-75p SP is NOT a prediction on my part nor a mega ramp. It is fair analysis based on past performance, precedent and pro-analyst opinions caveated with many IFs. Frankly, we’ll all be ecstatic if SP reaches 10p soon and 20p in 2022.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Part 2 tomorrow. The cunning plan itself: how a major can recoup most of

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