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Wowtitsworth: I too will lose faith if ex-CERP assets have no hope of producing substantially more than 450boe/day and the Bahamas license was formally permanently terminated with no hope of re-instatement by a court. Things are not that bad yet.

Many sophisticated investors took part in the OO/Placing which was priced quite fairly and perceived to be at a discount. Had it not, it would not have been almost fully subscribed. I think if the SP hovered at the OO/Placing price of around 3.5p over the last few weeks pending news, shareholders would have been OK about it (or at least less angry). But it hasn’t, which has caused many to lose patience.

Things could change on dime. Or at least I hope they will.

ATB

Starchild

My take on CEG world today:

Bahamas

I have come to the conclusion entering into any sort of commercial or financial contract with the current Bahamas administration is extremely risky.

They have freely admitted attempting to get out of the BPC/CEG deal for purported environmental reasons and allegations previous administrations should have sought higher royalties. The company and its shareholders were patient for over a decade waiting for legislation to allow drilling. The exploration well was completed safely as promised in the middle of a pandemic, despite unfounded attempts by enviros to injunct the drill. The latter was timed to badly hurt BPC/CEG financially. It did, as evidenced by having to borrow money from a hedge fund at punitive rates. A WPS was found and CEG believes a future drill with a farmee at Jurassic depths may yield commercial results. And importantly for shareholders, CEG believes its Bahamas asset/IP can be monetised.

The gov should always deal with administrative differences of opinion behind closed doors and not air them in the media. CEG is a public company and for a gov minister to state the license has not been renewed because of an alleged underpayment is IMO unacceptable, unprofessional, and possibly a breach of confidentiality. There are also legal consequences. If it is proven CEG is right, the gov could be liable for damages based on CEG having to borrow at higher more dilutive rates, to invest in Trinidad. Furthermore, the gov runs the risk of severe reputational damage, not only for future commercial partnerships, but also for borrowing. How BPC/CEG has been treated should set a major warning flag.

I take the default view the license is suspended for technical admin reasons, rather than terminated. I can live with a temporary suspension. All said and done, CEG should only pay what is due and not be intimidated by bullying or be used as a political pawn due to the May election. I hope the matter is resolved soon as it will have a positive effect on the SP; or at least an RNS issued ASAP, so we know where we stand.

Trinidad/Suriname

We await Saffron 2 updates and a date for the Suriname spud. Although severely impacted by covid, Suriname allows vaccinated travellers subject to other directives. A recent tweet stated Trinidad oil engineers are considered essential for the economy and qualify for early vaccinations.

Share price

A trickle of more sells than buys over the last 7 weeks and daily low trading volumes has lowered the SP by 35%. It has not been a case of share dumping on masse, since the Monecor disposal on or before 4 June. (Sources https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CEG/holding-s-in-company/15008742 and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG.L/history?p=CEG.L )

IMHO, subject to a decent RNS or two, confidence will be restored, and the market will react.

DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Three very unlikely scenarios

1. CEG will declare a dividend next week

2. By invitation, CEG will join OPEC+ in 2022 as the only company ever to do so in OPEC’s history The new entity to be renamed 'CEG OPEC+' in CEG’s honour.

3. The disgruntled few EX-shareholders that regularly bombard negativity on here, will stop writing deeply offensive posts against others, and just go away to pastures new.

For the record, I have no personal issue with existing holders currently sitting on massive losses sometimes airing their frustrations against the company, if they believe it helps. However there is no excuse for rudeness, trolling and insults. Informed debate, sometimes assertive disagreements are fine. IMO, it would make a better forum and a better world.

GLA

Starchild

BurrenBoy: I agree everyone selling now is making a loss on physical CEG shares, however refer to para 4 http://www.cfdsurvivalguide.com/cfds/trading-aim-shares

You will note junior oil/gas companies are a favourite for CFDs and derivative trading. CEG has had very low trading volume for several weeks. Less than 3m shares a day on average, total 86m traded since early June has lowered the SP by one third! Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG.L/history?p=CEG.L

It is very easy for traders to buy and sell at a loss to nudge the SP lower during low trading, and make a substantial profit from shorting CFD using tax efficient derivatives and leveraging. Refer to my 3 Monecor posts on 17/7. Without alleging Monecor or its clients have broken the law, I have reported the matter so it can be investigated.

However, the opposite can apply with a decent RNS.

ATB

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Thought experiment

If you were the CEG BoD since the Percy-1 result in February, what would you have done differently then and now? My commentary in [ ] below

1. How will you pay LOL $4m? [although it was a deal of last resort because of covid/court case, BPC/CEG got $1m surplus from the deal]

2. How will you handle the Stena cost over-run? [I would do a deal using shares to conserve cash. Refer to my hard sell post 22/6 04:22]

3. How will you fund $3-4m Saffron-2 and Suriname?

4. When would you invest in in-fill drilling and workovers to increase production?

5. Would you have done an OO/Placing? If so, at what price? If not, what?

6. How will you fund Saffron 3-9 if S2 was a success? [options: dilute at the share level, or asset level by doing a 75-25 revenue split which Leo contemplated for S2, or ‘other’]

7. What if S2 is a failure? How do you define ‘failure’? [I define failure as ‘Arena or other institutions will not do a hybrid CLN @4.2p or more for future Saffrons’]

8. How would you deal with the Bahamas Gov license? Would you pay $3m if you were legally advised it should be half that?

9. How would you deal with the Enviros and Fred Smith QC, then and now? [I’d sue them after the next hearing is concluded]

10. How would you structure a deal for a Bahamas farm in? [assume the autopsy meets expectations. Refer to my post 11/7 06:32 for the hard sell]

11. How will you monetise the intangible Bahamas IP assets which cost $150m over 10+ years to develop? How much are these assets worth without a farm-in? [IMO, worth lots to any major wishing to drill Bahamas or North Cuba]

12. If you had access to unlimited cash at a decent rate for M&A, would you buy existing Trinidad wells to get an ROI in 4 years? [I would. Then outsource production for a percentage, at minimum risk and capex. If ROI 8 years, fine. Multiplied by 10,000 AUTOMATED wells is a license to print cash if it’s hedged.]

And

13. At what point would you consider the nuclear option? [ie, fire most of the CEG staff, outsource everything and just collect cash]

Or

14. At what CEG MCap would you consider a merger and justify it to your shareholders? Why? [CEG today is not CERP June 2020, so care needed to answer this one]

Real CEG shareholders will benefit by doing the above ‘board game’ thought experiment. It helps answer a key question on whether you are aligned with recent CEG BoD decisions. Although welcome to join in, it doesn’t apply to traders as their agendas are more short-term.

Constructive feedback welcome. Sarcasm from disgruntled ex-holders or trolling is not.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: NO. I’m not Simon Potter either. Nor, Leo, Leo’s wife, Eytan, on the CEG BoD or management team, a CEG employee or supplier, related to the above, sleeping with the above, a retired headmaster, a paid ramper or a journalist. How totally absurd to state these allegations!

Jono44: read my first sentence again. It is obvious what I meant by the two words...'next stage.'

I suggest you DYOR rather than ask me further questions, or speak to a professional advisor. However there's not much point as you have admitted to being an ex-shareholder. As such, refer to my last sentence.

GL

Starchild

By +/- Friday, we will know the next stage of how successful the Saffron 2 appraisal well has been. Despite most small oil/gas companies seeing a rise leading to such an event, CEG has been an exception.

Even the most pro-BPC/CEG commentators foresaw a MCap collapse in the event of the Bahamas spud being non-commercial. Many anti-BPC/CEG folks even agreed with a 0.5p (5p today) SP overnight price correction. Yet CEG’s SP has fallen substantially below 5p, and in my Saturday post I argued why it probably has since the 3.5p OO/Placing.

Had the CERP merger not taken place, the post Percy-1 result SP would have been even more dire than an overnight 5p SP (adjusted) in Feb 2021. However, in August 2020 the merger did take place and CEG IS generating decent revenue. This morning’s £16.5m MCap, is as if the market has FORGOTTEN ex-CERP assets exist. In fact, according to the 29/6/21 RNS trading update https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CEG/june-2021-trading-and-corporate-update/15036292 , CEG earned $3.3m gross for 5 months Jan-May 2021. Using simple maths, assuming nothing changes such as PoO being less than $60-$65/boe, then over 12 months Jan – Dec 2021, annual gross revenue should be approx $8m (excluding opex, capex, $3-4m G&A, royalties/taxes, and legacy Stena debts etc).

Smidgens of news or no news affects small AIM companies. EIA approval in Feb 2020 and the Stena appointment in June 2020 had substantial impact on the SP. I would argue a positive Saffron 2 result, or confirmation Bahamas Gov issues have been resolved will have the same effect. My Friday 04:42 post attempted to give a factual summary where CEG is now.

Precedent 1: Potential technical insolvency, triggered price collapses for Hurricane in the spring and Tullow last year. New investors then, now have a 400-500% return. The Percy-1 result was equally dire, but the OO/Placing helped reset CEG to avoid technical insolvency. And the recent MOU with Arena is a potential Capex springboard to three more Saffrons.

Precedent 2: CERP reached £40m-£50m MCap with less imminent potential. This is equivalent to a +/- 5.5p - 6p CEG SP today.

Bottom Line: only you can decide whether to sell, hold, top-up or buy. I’m quite comfortable with my current holdings, despite my disappointment at today’s paper-losses which I am not enamoured about. I can see the substantial potential upside and willing to take the risk.

But always DYOR and never rely on this forum for advice, especially from shorters or ex shareholders who bombard negativity. Some are clearly angry and wish to affect market sentiment as a validation to their past trading decisions.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Bohemia: yet again I believe your opinion helps prove my point rather than a valid rebuttal thereof.

I am aware Monecor provides the various services you describe. I ran out of space in my post this morning and could not caveat or expand on this. Monecor, likely had one major client who did what I suspect. It would be too much coincidence if lots of little ones had a the same epiphany.

Monecor are into CFDs and spread betting which makes my case stronger!

As for RNS disclosures, why didn’t they disclose when reaching >3%, or when they breached the more and then less than 4% and 5% levels? We have no evidence they did so, which should have been the case. I therefore allege the possibility, they (ie, their clients) have breached the >0.5% shorting threshold. If this is the case, CEG’s Nomad should get involved to open an investigation.

As for your last para, CERP reached £40-£50 MCap with less imminent potential. This is equivalent of +/- 5.5p - 6p CEG SP today.

GL

Starchild
Ps: Even though you fully admit to shorting CEG, I appreciate the fact you normally express your opinions in a polite way without resorting to personal attacks or insults.

ps to my 07:14 post this morning: The censored link is v o x m a r k e t s

And, if you agree with the analysis, research and opinions in my previous post, feel free to publish in FULL on ADV and/or any social media you participate in, which discusses BPC/CEG.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Fatalcharm/Wotitsworth: much appreciated guys

Antha: ouch!

Carlif1990: you demanded facts, which I attempted to provide yet your post at 0808 Friday had few other than complaining. Why don’t you address them to CEG instead of insulting fellow holders? BTW, I’m sorry you don’t like my jokes. Despite being a bit of a grump, I’m sure even you found the John Cleese / Peter Cooke clip funny.

All: listen to Thursday’s Eytan 15min v o x interview https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/andrew-duxbury-of-galliford-try-eytan-uliel-of-challenge-energy-bill-brodie-good-of-alien-metals-4f9cc46/

• I found the reference to Bahamas Gov approval ‘in a few months’ interesting. It implies to me, CEG believes it has offered to pay what’s due and unless there’s a farm-in (or lots of spare cash), or a mediated/court decision, CEG has no intent to pay what’s disputed. IMO, it also implies, the license is currently suspended because of this admin dispute rather than forfeited .

• I agree with Eytan’s opinion that the current low SP is baffling when using most MCap/SP valuation metrics.

Here’s why IMO the SP has fallen over the last few weeks, despite the S2 spud.

Refer to RNS 8/6/21 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/challenger_energy_group/news/rns/story/xoz5v3w. Monecor disclosed it had sold most of its holdings of 46m shares by 4/6/21 and was left with 9m shares on that date. IMO, a professional II such as Monecor did not have a sudden epiphany that they had made a mistake buying CEG 2 weeks previously in the OO/Placing. Neither was any negative RNS issued since the consolidation on 20/5. In fact 2 positive events were the TR-1 disclosure on 28/5 of RAB Holdings exceeding the 3% holding level and the news that the S2 spud was progressing. The latter usually increases the SP of a small oil/gas company until the spud result!!!

Conclusions
Either Monecor knew something we do not, or it sold with the intent to short. The disposal of its 37m shares certainly lowered the SP from 3.5p-4p in May. Compound this to the extremely low daily trade volume since the 8/6 TR-1. Over the last 28 days, approx 80m shares were traded. This is <3m a day Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG.L/history?p=CEG.L and Aquis exchange.)

Now do the maths. Monecor spent c3.5p x 46m shares, for approx £1.6m. They sold most of those shares at a loss (10-20%) knowing the market would react and kept 9m shares also loss making over the next few weeks to nudge the SP lower on the back of low trading volume. If they took out a shorting CFD derivative, they will have made a fortune by now.

There is no rationale alternative explanation. It’s not a case of a mega sell off leading to a spud result! If I’m right, or more importantly lots of small investors or one or two major investors think I am right and buy CEG next week, the game is over, and the SP will rise. But I may be wrong… so DYOR.

Be NICE and GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.

A fact is a thing that is known or proven to be true. For example, ‘CEG’s Mcap is £18.48m’. The opposite of a ‘fact’ is a lie, untruth, or fiction. For example, ‘CEG has never sold a single barrel of oil’.

1. Fact: in Aug 2018, BPC’s MCap peaked at £156m when a major was in the data-room, without a farm-in deal, Uruguay or CERP.

2. Fact: In Sep 2020, Kosmos got $100m when it signed a JV with Shell for its exploration assets. (Source https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-farm-down-portfolio-exploration-assets )

3. Fact: if CEG enters a farm-in with $50m-$100 cash, the SP will soar. An opinion is whether it will soar ten-fold. Another opinion is whether a farm-in will happen.

4. Fact: the gov and CEG have a difference of opinion on how much is owed. An opinion is whether CEG should pay something in full it legally doesn’t need to, whether it be a disputed license fee, or a Stena invoice.

5. Fact: Arena Investors has agreed in principle to advance $10m based on a SP of 4.2p. An opinion is whether the deal will go through or if CEG will go elsewhere.

6. Fact: Arena has done some initial due dili on liabilities and potential to have agreed in principle to 4.2p. It wasn’t picked at random.

7. Fact: Pro-analysts have stated ex-CERP assets could generate a target MCap of £220m - £320m excluding Bahamas. (Source 8/12/20 pages 1, 17 and 18, when there were 4B shares on issue. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/08133633/Auctus-BPC_IOC_08.12.2020.01.pdf ) An opinion is whether you agree with them or not.

8. Fact: Recently analysts have stated a 12p target SP based on 836m shares and $57/b PoO, if 3 Saffrons succeed. (Source https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/04/28113530/Auctus-BPC-27.04.2021.pdf ) An opinion is whether you agree with them or not.

9. Fact: when the sp was 0.5p (5p now), I gave an opinion in good faith that the SP would unlikely permanently go below this figure. It reached 0.7p (7p) and is today 2.28p. I continue to stand by that opinion, but it’s up to you whether you agree with me and pro-analysts or not.

10. Fact: I believe in my own research and opinions and have invested heavily since then. To stop the same 4 people making ridiculous accusations, I even offered to prove my holdings but on my terms.

11. Fact: some find my posts annoying and resort to insults. Opinion: I see no benefit in publicly airing my frustrations at the current SP, nor attacking the BOD. Many do so, so what’s the point even if I wanted to? More importantly, I firmly believe the SP will increase substantially over the coming weeks and the current ridiculously low MCap is TEMPORARY.

12. Fact: See the filter button? If you don’t like my posts, filter me rather than insult me. I'm OK with polite debate.

More facts? Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gn08cA5zNAI

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profile

Correction to my last post.... 'INITIAL due diligence' not 'due diligence'. There is no way CEG has not supplied Arena with basic figures such as debt provisions by now. Otherwise no RNS would have been issued on that front at this time. It's a bit like applying for a mortgage or loan. You fill in a form to see if you qualify in principle, before the checks and full due diligence are performed by the bank.

Starchild

FOI

The environmentalists seeking FOI requests, can ask but it doesn’t mean they’ll get what they seek. It is not normal for a government or company to disclose confidential documents or contracts without permission, other than to provide a high-level summary in the public domain. For example, if Shell sells 30% of an oil field to Exxon, it may give the figure but will not publish the actual contract. Similarly, if the UK government awards a contract to build an aircraft carrier, it will only give the figure and a high-level summary of the deal. The Bahamas minister has already given what he believes is the $2.9m figure owed for licenses which CEG disputes. He is not compelled to give an audit trail, and no one can demand one other than in exceptional circumstances. As for a copy of the license, it’s just not done.

Arena

For Arena Investors to have entered a de facto MOU implies due diligence has been undertaken on outstanding CEG debt (disputed or otherwise). The money to be advanced is to develop Saffron, not for debt service.

Potential

Saffron 2’s potential is 11mboe with SWP possibly holding a whopping 230mboe (source https://www.cegplc.com/operations/trinidad/ ). Using round figures, assuming ‘only’ 100mboe, at only $60 PoO less $20/boe current extraction costs, equates to $4 Billion gross revenue pre capex, royalties, taxes and additional G&A.

Eagerly awaited news which will have a material effect on the share price

1. By 31/7: Full S2 results: quality, production per day, API etc and a CPR

2. ASAP: the overdue Percy-1 autopsy and a CPR

3. ASAP: Confirmation the Bahamas Gov accepts CEG’s right to renew licenses for 3 years

4. Soon after 1-3: A statement on cash availability, legacy debt settlement figures to Stena and Gov and how they will be paid.

2 and 3 are very important. I believe new investors currently waiting on the side-lines, will have a flutter, as a Bahamas farm-in including cash could result in a 10+ bagger, excluding ex-CERP assets’ potential. The reason CEG’s MCap in BPC days hit £220m (without CERP) was it attracted folks looking for a high risk/high reward investment. It could be argued the chance of a farm-in will appeal, compounded by CEG positive news in Trinidad. Why CEG’s MCap is only £19m is baffling.

IMHO. DYOR and GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: the £150 broken bottle of claret I sobbed over was a gift. I’m not ostentatious enough to buy such luxuries although we do occasionally bathe in donkey’s milk sprinkled with flowers and queen bee royal honey. Every few weeks my wife pretends to be Cleopatra and I wear a Toga and loin cloth playing the dual role of Mark Anthony and a man-slave. Although it makes a mess of the hot tub, it’s great fun and very good for the complexion. In fact, I’m often asked to prove my age when buying cheap wine from Lidl.

Bohemia: CEG does not NEED $20m funds to develop future production NOW in the sense of it needed $10m to repay legacy debt. It will use an initial advance of only $10m to do S3,4,5 and possibly Suriname.

Furthermore, your negative comment about the linear write-down is actually a positive! OK, if instead of 11mboe 'only' 6m can be CPRd, at $70 PoO that is worth $50/b x 6,000,000 boe = $300m gross over several years excluding taxes and additional labour costs/capex. Multiply that by 9 Saffrons. Personally i'd be quite happy to dig a hole on my land and find $300m down that hole. Perhaps only you would complain under the circumstances, that it's not good enough and should be 600 million bucks and therefore a failure!

GL

Starchild

JohnBriggs: happy does not mean ecstatic. I would have been ecstatic at 8p funding level and confirmation the Gov has confirmed license renewal.

GL

Starchild

Initial observations of today’s RNS:

• S2 look very promising so far.

• The CLN is not a done deal yet.

• If it goes through, c185m new shares will be issued for tranche 1, $10m net, in the event the CLN is converted.

• The price 4.2p (not too bad). Better than previous OO/Placing

• The proceeds will be used for developing projects such as 3 new Saffron wells, to bring in revenue.

• The difference between the CLN and the OO/II placing @3.5p is it is for development with a potential ROI in 1-2 years, rather than paying off legacy Percy-1 debts for corporate survival.

Opinion:

• Bizzell’s clearly were not inclined to lend at 8p. I wonder if Stephen Bizzell wants the hassle of remaining on the BoD. What’s the point? (This should not be construed as I want him fired)

• If S2 is a PROVEN success within 2 weeks, SP should logically reach the 4.2p quickly.

• If S2, S3, S4, S5 are successful, I very much doubt CEG will need a 2nd tranche from these guys @4.2p.

Overall: I'm happy

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

An RNS is imminently due to update us on Saffron 2 and the Bahamas licenses. Yesterday was the lowest trading volume since September 2020 because most folks are playing the waiting game.

I certainly wouldn’t read too much into this insofar as making a ‘buy’ decision solely based on the video clip , but if you go to https://twitter.com/ceg_plc?lang=en and watch the recent Saffron 2 drone clip, note the ground is covered in oil and water. It reminds me of the mess my first cars caused to the road many decades ago, due to leaking oil sumps and dodgy engines. The clip does not prove S2 is a Beverly Hillbillies type gusher, but IMO shows the presence of oil.

My earliest childhood memory is aged 3. To the best of my recollection I have never cried over spilt milk, although I did sob for a few seconds, over a broken bottle of £150 claret while I was licking the table for a taster of what I would be missing. Despite making a six figure paper loss overnight after the Percy-1 result on 8/2/21 I was disappointed but nowhere near crying. I believed then, and continue to believe now there’s a massive upside potential over the next few months with three news triggers facilitating the possibility: Trinidad, Surname and/or a Bahamas farm-in.

For the record I am NOT a journalist as recently alleged by a disgruntled and clearly angry ex-CEG holder. In fact I’m slightly dicklexic and without spell check I could be classed as borderline illiterate. Oh well, the positive inference is my posts are of professional quality, so in the event I need a job, I’ll add this ‘complement’ to my CV as a reference.

DYOR and GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Eytan: RNS ASAP please

OnlyBPC: I wish you well buddy

Daprophet: My initial reaction to your ‘prove it’ post was to initially be offended. However, then I laughed. S, fair enough as a once off, here are my comments:

Practically, it is impossible to prove I am NOT someone without disclosing my name which I am not prepared to do. I cannot prove I am NOT Eytan nor Bill Gates. Furthermore, it is technically impossible for me to do a screenshot (jpeg) and post it here. So, here’s the offer:

You or ZagEgypt can email the company and ask three questions:

1. Is Starchild a member of the company’s BoD, exec team, staff or paid (directly or indirectly) to post on LSE?
2. Do any of the above influence or endorse Starchild’s opinions?
3. Does Starchild have more than 5m shares in CEG as at 11/7/21?

But, you must state to CEG in that email: who you are, disclose your name and full contact details, and prove you are Daprophet or ZagEgypt on LSE.

I don’t know if CEG will agree to the above one off, however if it does, please confirm upon the answers being 1. No; 2. No; 3. Yes 2… you agree to formally apologise and NEVER post on this CEG BB again.

Agreed? Let me know so I can email my permission to CEG tomorrow.

Starchild

Daprophet: based on your post this morning and previous one, are you alleging I am Eytan or a member of the CEG BoD?

I am NOT. In case it was not obvious, my 'letter' this morning was written satirically to make some key points. Do you honestly believe a member of the CEG BoD or representative/advisor of the company would be allowed to post under stock market rules? If CEG's Nomad found out he would resign on the spot and if party to the posts, he'd probably lose his license.

For goodness sake.

GL

Starchild
Starchild

Dear oil majors,

Due to the 2020 PoO collapse, you slashed exploration Capex. Industry experts believe by the mid-2020s you will have a problem. Here’s how we can help solve this challenge before your competitors do, with a relatively small amount of cash involving CEG’s potential. One of your competitors could be the Chinese as they have recently made a move to assist the Bahamas with ‘advice’ (ie, ‘influence’) on infrastructure. See https://ewnews.com/bahamas-government-signs-12m-economic-and-technical-agreement-with-china and http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/jul/07/ambassador-hopes-china-links-will-grow/

You have spare cash which today CEG does not. However, CEG has 3 key assets which you do not: Two potentially massive plays in the Bahamas and Uruguay, and lots of smaller ones in Trinidad and Suriname. After you have visited CEG’s data-room, we seek offers starting at $100m for a farm-in partner. However, as part of the deal, the winning bidder will get 10% of CEG’s shares to hedge outcomes. Here’s how CEG will spend the upfront cash, so everyone wins:

1. By 1st quarter 2023 Percy-2 Bahamas will be spudded (You will pay but keep 80% at the asset level on success. Even at 80%, your net returns will be higher than 100% North Sea based on tax/royalties in the Bahamas)

2. By 1st quarter 2023 Uruguay will be spudded (CEG will pay all capex)

3. By 4th quarter 2022 ex-CERP assets will be developed as stated in 26/3 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/ry4n3kr. Figures below are approx and based on $60 PoO, but CEG will self-fund ALL capex from your payment and its organic growth:

a) At $60 PoO, CEG is earning approx $3m/yr free cashflow to pay the bills including $4m/yr G&A.

b) $1m capex for incremental production. Success = 100 bopd = $1m/yr free cash. (ROI 1 year)

c) $3m capex to spud S2 Trinidad. Success = 200-300 bopd = $2-3m/yr free cash. (ROI 1 year)

d) $2.5m capex to spud Suriname including an EWT ($700k). Success = 500+ bopd = $2.5m/yr free cash. (ROI 1 year)

e) Saffron 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 full-field development (2-3 yrs) 4,000+ bopd $25m+/yr free cash. Capex <$60m. (ROI 2 years).

f) Infill drilling programs 200 - 400 bopd $3m - $4.5m/yr free cash. Capex <$6m. (ROI 2 years)

g) New Biz dev opportunities 100+ bopd $0.7m/yr free cash. Capex $2.5m - $3m. (ROI 4 years).

In conclusion, what have you got to lose? Name 1 small company that can offer a similar deal.

Worst case scenario is your farm-in payment to CEG, and the Bahamas spud Capex will be partly hedged. Best case scenario is a multi-billion-dollar NPV. And if you do a deal with the US Fed and Florida State govs NOT to drill in our northern licenses, you may leverage some USA goodies in return.

Sign-up now before your competitors do. What is there to lose? When do you want to visit the Gneiss hosted data-room? RSVP.

Hugs,

Eytan and the BoD
xxxx

Starchild
https://www.lse.c