Member Info for Starchild

I have been a BPC holder since 2014 and started posting here 12 months ago. It was initially out of boredom because I had time on my hands caused by lockdown while most of my businesses were running on 1st gear. There’s only so much online chess I wanted to play, Netflix programmes to watch, with very little sport on TV to enjoy. So, this BB became a new ‘temporary’ hobby. Other than during the CERP merger, I averaged around 1 hour per day researching and commenting on here as a hobby. What attracted me to this BB was the substantial commentary from ordinary shareholders rather than just traders. However only a few provided actual research/evidence to back opinions. So I joined the party.

The BPC universe has had its ups and downs with some fond memories. Eg, the camaraderie in November with middle aged men tracking the IceMax and Rainbow Warrior on screens akin to acne clad 13-year-old nerds who had never had a girlfriend.

From a personal viewpoint there has been 3 major lows in the last 3 years:

1. The super-major in 2018 not wishing to do a farm-in (or making a punitive offer to do so). Affect: The SP collapsed from 6.8p to 1.1p yet recovered to 5p+ in Feb 2020. In hindsight: IMO, despite share dilution, BPC are in a better position today to do a deal based on what we know since the drill result. BPC still owns 100% of its Bahamas acreage and based on ex-CERP potential is not in dire need to do a JV.

2. The postponement of the Percy-1 spud. Affect: the SP collapsed from 5p+ to 1.1p, yet more than tripled on 1 June to 3.7p following the Stena announcement. (Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L )

3. The RNS on 8/2/21 stating commercial quantities of oil had not been found. Affect: the SP collapsed to 0.5p which is where we are today despite evidence provided yesterday it should be at 1p+ based on ex-CERP. (My post 05:25am)

4. [A 4th low mainly applies to traders who bought shares just before the December share placement.]

My intro above may have initially appeared to be the 1st para in a written eulogy for a funeral. Far from it.

The BoD undoubtedly war gamed a non-commercial find at the 1st attempt. This explains a key milestone last year was to… ‘establish the presence of moveable hydrocarbons.’ (Source slide 9 https://wp-bpcplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/12221803/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf and slide 26 bar chart.….. ‘US$5m potential incremental SUCCESS CASE logging/sampling’…. … This is where we are today.

I fully accept many folks are waiting on the side-lines for positive news to buy for the 1st time or top-up. Based on my BPC experiences despite awaiting news on various fronts, I already have by several million shares, because IMO there’s substantial room for mega-UP, with very little room for down. But that’s my own personal viewpoint, so DYOR.

GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zag: It doesn't work that way. BPC would have zero shares. PRD would issue additional shares and swap them with BPC. (think BPC CERP merger) Refer to my post again. ex-CERP does have value even though you appear to think it's worthless. It is not.

Starchild

Zag: 'Hostile take over bid of PRD, might I ask the question as to how is this funded??'

New, inflated PRD shares in return for currently deflated BPC ones! However I doubt anything will happen on this front till April. It assumes, PRD SP will increase further and if no positive news from BPC. Hence the 'star-alignment' comment.

GL

Starchild

BPC’s market cap today is £26m. CERP merger price was £25m. in addition, BPC paid off the £2m Lind facility.

Updates:
(a) Refer to 2019 CERP accounts page 14 (https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05901339/filing-history ). Note: since the T+T Gov closed the local refinery, CERP/BPC earns MORE than PoO WTI prices by selling direct to Heritage.

(b) PRD SP has tripled on arguably less expectations compared to BPC (+25% yesterday). I have a HUNCH (not a conspiracy theory) the recent surge is partly artificial for a POSSIBLE BPC hostile bid dependant on April star alignments, with ‘special interests’ ‘playing’ with the BPC SP too.

There is NO logical explanation to the current BPC SP/Mcap as its assets including cash are IMO worth more than its MCap.

Why?

1. BPC has more cash today vs CERP. I estimate $6m net after paying all its Percy-1 bills. CERP had $2m on 31/12/19 before facing Covid-19 and PoO collapse.

2. BPC has access to additional funds to develop ex-CERP assets. CERP did not.

3. BPC is on track to spud/test key ex-CERP assets within weeks. CERP did not.

4. The PRD CO2 testing, which BPC can benefit from, was successful.

5. The PRD SP has tripled in the last few weeks. Some, but not most of this, can be attributed to the above.

6. BPC has increased to 500b/day in Dec 2020 and expects further increases. CERP had no spare cash to maintain wells. Productivity dropped from 1000+ b/day in 2018 to c450b/day in 2020.

7. The Gov’s 50% special petroleum tax applied for $50+/b. Since 1/1/21 it is $75/b WTI. Very good for BPC.

8. Analysts believe PoO could hit $100/b in 2022/23.

9. A recent CPR increased BPC’s 2P reserves by 30%. 1.3mboe x $40/b NPV10 is more than BPC’s market cap today.

10. BPC believes it will reach 2500b/day production by year end. To-date the BPC BoD has met goals under its control.

11. If BPC reaches 2500b/day, net profit 2022 onwards (excluding capex and c$4m for all operating expenses) @$60 PoO will be c$30m/year. Pure cash.

12. In Sep 2019, CERP hit £50m market cap (5p SP, 1B shares), even when WTI PoO was $55/b and without points 7 + 8. (Charts https://wallmine.com/lse/cerp and https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil )

13. Today, BPC has something CERP did not: potential monetisation/farm-in of Bahamas acreage despite no commercial find as yet.

So, only based on the historic CERP SP and only for points 1-12 above, IMO BPC’s current Mcap/SP is seriously undervalued. The market is still nervous re the Percy-1 result and awaiting imminent news, despite point 13 having a potentially sudden massive upside to the SP.

IMO the SP should be at least 1p+ (£50m+ Market cap) purely on ex-CERP assets and possibly more due to CERP work in progress. But this excludes Bahamas.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Shouldvesold: I will attempt to answer your questions

1. BPC's net cash position includes capital raise, yet is is making a nice monthly profit (excluding capex). Capital raises are reflected in the number of shares, and as such makes no difference in my points below re current SP based on mcap.

2. Where did 2 go?!

3. Pre-merger announcement CERP had a problem: dwindling production because the wells needed maintaining. They had very little surplus cash to invest in all the stuff BPC is planning to do 1st qtr. I do not understand your point on delayed merger/broker fees. There is a set process to follow when a merger takes place and it took approx 8 weeks.

4. PRD offered to buy the JV wells in Trinidad from CERP bang in the middle of the merger. BPC/CERP declined. There has been no RNS since from BPC suggesting they have sold these assets to PRD.

Have a great day

Starchild
Ps: My post yesterday had a word auto censored by LSE. The word is the one used for a female dog. I don't know how vets can use similar platforms to discuss dog health with each other!

(correction to my previous post).... BPC’s market cap today is £25m. BPC/CERP pre-merger announcement mcap in May/June 2020 was £25m (NOT August). In addition, BPC paid off the £2m Lind facility.

I also forgot to add at the end of the post, that I have done extensive share price modelling on various permutations, but will await for news first.

GLA

Starchild

BPC’s market cap today is £25m. BPC/CERP merger mcap in August 2020 was £25m. in addition, BPC paid off the £2m Lind facility.

Additional facts

1. BPC has more net cash in the bank today compared to CERP. I estimate BPC has $6m net today after paying all its Bahamas Percy-1 bills. CERP had $2m on 31/12/19 before facing the Covid-19 storm in April and the destruction of oil demand.

2. BPC has access to additional funds to develop ex-CERP assets. CERP did not.

3. BPC is on track to spud/test key ex-CERP assets within weeks. CERP did not.

4. The PRD Trinidad Co2 testing, which BPC can indirectly benefit from, proved successful.

5. The PRD share price has almost tripled in the last few weeks. Some, but not most of this, can be attributed point 4..

6. BPC has increased current capacity peak to 500b/day in Dec 2020 and expects further increases self-funded from profits. CERP had no surplus cash to maintain wells. Productivity dropped from 1000+ b/day in 2018 to c450b/day in 2020.

7. Trinidad Gov’s special petroleum tax @50% was in-force at PoO $50/b. Since 1/1/21 it is $75/b WTI. Very good for BPC.

8. PoO is heading upwards (Brent >$71/b overnight) and economists believe it could hit $100/b in 2022/23.

9. A recent CPR has increased BPC’s Trinidad 2P reserves by 30%. 1.3mboe x $40/b NPV10 net profit is potentially worth more than BPC’s market cap today.

10. BPC believes it will reach 2500b/day production by year end. To-date the BPC BoD has reached objectives under its control.

11. If BPC reaches 2500b/day, net profit in 2022 onwards (excluding capex and assuming c$4m for all operating costs) @$60 PoO will be c$30m/year. Pure cash for 1 year is approx BPC's Mcap today.

12. In September 2019, CERP hit £50m market cap (5p SP with 1B shares), when WTI PoO was $55/b (Sources: see charts https://wallmine.com/lse/cerp and https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil )

13. Today, BPC has something CERP did not. A potential fortune in Bahamas licensed acreage despite no commercial find yet and is seeking a farm-in because it has discovered a working petroleum system.

So….. only based on the historic CERP share price and only for points 1-12 above, I believe BPC’s current market cap/SP is seriously undervalued. The market is still nervous due to the Percy-1 result and weary to put a toe in the water despite point 13 having massive consequences to the SP. But this could change suddenly.

IMO the SP should be at least 1p+ (£50m+ Market cap) purely on ex-CERP assets and possibly more due to BPC’s ex-CERP developments. And this excludes Bahamas. I believe news is imminent on various fronts.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ShouldveSold: Everyone has the right to air their opinion within the rules of this BB. The non-research part of my post this morning was not aimed at real shareholders that sometimes air their frustrations. Let's face it, most (if not all) remaining LTHs are substantially in the red. My family has more shares than everyone on the BoD (including the BoD's warrants) with the exception of its CEO Simon Potter. So I'm currently down, despite buying several million shares since 8/2/21 as low as 0.50p last week.

The question no one as yet answered is, ....what should the BoD have done differently since 2019?

I am not the BoD's defender, nor its *****, but I don't think I would have done anything differently if I was the BoD. With one important exception: more regular news and updates. Especially at this important time in BPC's history.

This post and my previous one was not meant to criticize you. However I have an issue for non-shareholders manipulating BBs for selfish gain, share manipulation, or to machine gun post negativity, out of spite.

Have a great day

Starchild

Some recent commentators on this BB acknowledge having no BPC shares. Others post daily that BPC is a failure and its BOD hopeless, yet they will buy shares in this ‘failed’ company when the SP reaches lower levels!

A recent theme by the anti-BPC commentators, is an assertion the Percy-1 result was such an abysmal failure no major would invest in a future exploration JV. They state no JVs take place for ‘failures’ and imply recent RNSs confirming BPC is seeking to monetize its Bahamas acreage are at best pie in the sky or at worst deceptive.

They provide NO evidence and NO research for their negativity. When presented with opposite well-argued viewpoints (eg, https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/tiburn/ ), they pretend they don’t understand and blether back in baby language with the same babble.

Questions:

1. Do oil companies sometimes JV following a duster or ‘non-commercial’ drill result? YES. See https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Have-Oil-Majors-Given-Up-On-French-Guiana.html Note various majors bought/sold chunks of French Guianan prospects with each other. Also note, many attempts were made with limited success there, yet with major successes in Guyana.

2. Are majors interested to farm-in before a successful drill? YES. It is an undisputed fact a major spent 4 months in BPC’s data room and paid $1m for exclusivity to do so in 2018. Why wouldn’t they be interested now that the geology has apparently been de-risked, and a working petroleum system proven? If Exxon were the Percy-1 explorer instead of BPC, would they pack their bags and go home, or drill again?

3. Do majors have the exploration budgets? YES. Despite a major cut in exploration capex in 2020 to protect balance sheets, greenfield exploration is expected to SOAR. See https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Offshore-Oil-Gas-Projects-Set-For-Record-Recovery.html and https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/offshore-project-commitments-count-set-for-record-in-coming-years-deepwater-to-have-top-growth/ …especially at the prospect of $100+ PoO 2022/23.

4. Why is GNEISS involved? Because there are so many potential JV targets, including unsolicited ones and direct BoD relationships already in-place (eg, point 2), someone has to manage them. See the more notable ones here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_exploration_and_production_companies

Alternative viewpoints welcome but provide evidence and research other than a hunch. To be taken seriously please confirm if you are currently a BPC shareholder and if not, why you are posting here.

IMHO. DYOR. Have a great Sunday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS. Jono44: you comment politely, and I believe you are honest. I ask you kindly confirm or deny whether you are acting for PRD (directly or indirectly) or another company or special interest group re your BPC posts since 8/2/21.

Firstly, refer to 7/1/21 RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x ). Note 6.ii.iii, with a key point edited in CAPS. ‘………the date on which BPC may be required to make a reconciling payment to the Investor is extended ….. to 16 April 2021, this extension allowing a considerably longer window for the determination of the need for a reconciliation payment (if any), which BPC CONSIDERS TO BE TO ITS ADVANTAGE….’

Background
Lombard Odier (‘LOL’) received 563m shares including BPC’s 188m ‘put’ which had to be exercised by 13/1.’ LOL never exercised the ‘call’ option. BPC recently confirmed nothing is owed to LOL for the original tranche. In several postings at the time, I firmly believed there was a backstop of 2p. Why? If they were given half a billion shares with a guaranteed SP of 2.3p with NO restrictions, they could have done one of the following:

1. Sold none. Had Percy-1 been commercial LOL would have made a fortune. If not, on 16 April LOL would be owed millions. Or,

2. Sold them all within a week. The SP would have collapsed to <1.5p. Better still they could have taken out a CFD/derivative and made a fortune shorting BPC. Then, on April 16, they would be owed millions on top.

LOL could not exercise the ‘put’ after the Percy-1 drill result on 8/2/21. Clearly this was because LOL could have made substantial gains either way, based on the above. I therefore continue to believe there was a 2p backstop, which means the most BPC had to pay, if anything, was the 15% guaranteed return on 2p. As I see it, assuming LOL kept ALL 188m put shares that hit on 15/1 (unlikely) is 0.30p/share = £564k.

Assumptions
1. The ‘put’ has a backstop of 2p/share.

2. The ‘put’ was exercised 24 days into the drill and the BoD already knew real-time data showing presence of oil and other positive geological characteristics.

3. The BoD had already war gamed a strategy in the event of a non-commercial find and this was why 16 April is advantageous.

4. Various commentators including me, foresaw an initial knee jerk reaction in the event of a duster to 0.5p SP. (Putting aside it was NOT a duster for now, merely non-commercial)

5. If anything was owed to LOL by the 16/4 reconciliation date, BPC planned to pay them in shares. Hence RNS 14/12 confirmed the deal had, ‘anti-dilution provisions.’

6. The BoD likely knew/know of something advantageous, that we do not yet know, which can substantially increase the SP by 16/4. I have already given opinions what news can achieve this: JV, Farm-in, Ex-CERP assets, etc.

7. Key: I believe something BIG is brewing.

All said and done, I hope BPC pays LOL NOTHING unless forced to by a court and refer to my previous posts for the rationale.

IMHO. DYOR. Enjoy Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PoO
Opec+ surprised the markets by keeping output unchanged yesterday. The Saudi energy minister is not concerned whatsoever that US shale may kick-in. (source https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/3/4/oil-prices-surge-past-recent-highs-on-opec-s-crude-production-decision ). This is good for BPC as it costs $20/b to extract onshore Trinidad and even better that the Gov increased the special 50% threshold tax from $50/b to $75/b WTI. In parallel BPC inherited capex tax deductions from CERP of $85m when it starts to make a profit in T+T.

Farm-in
For years this has been on the cards with a major paying $1m for exclusivity to the data-room in 2018. BPC believes there is more chance of a deal now otherwise it would not have stated this in recent RNSs, nor involved GNEISS to manage the potential interest.

Duster vs non-commercial
Based on the current SP, until the Percy-1 autopsy is disclosed, the market clearly believes the result is akin to a duster and therefore a failure. However from a potential JV or 2nd drill, it makes a HUGE difference. After the autopsy, if it meets or exceeds the 8/2/21 RNS statements, this will be reflected in the SP. The binary question is simple: ‘Could there be another Guyana in BPC acreage and if so, as an oil major should we have a flutter out of petty-cash, (relative to the overall picture), before our competitors do a BPC deal?’

Call with BPC BoD + confidentiality
Although I did not sign an NDA I made a promise before and during the call. I always keep my word. Furthermore, according to the Ts+Cs on this BB, discussions/emails with BoDs may not be publicly disclosed. I’m pleased the call took place and the matters discussed. If I was a BoD member and something negative was about to be announced, I would have postponed speaking to a major shareholder until afterwards for damage limitation.

Parpaing: ……’what do [I] mean by "substantial potential for spectacular rises." Is this 6,7,89 or 10p? …’
A lot more than current SP! Please refer to my post 22/2/21 04:16am which points to analysts’ opinions. There are 4 permutations: wooden-spoon, bronze, silver and gold. The latter 2 would IMO result in spectacular gains.

Londonwhale: I’m sorry you feel my post was awful and that I’m a clown. In fact clowns scare me. I remember many years ago visiting the circus with my grandma and cowering on her lap crying. (I was 30 years old at the time, but that’s not important right now). Perhaps you should have used the slur of ‘comedian.’ What do you get when you cross a dyslexic, an insomniac, and an agnostic? Someone who lays awake at night wondering if there’s a dog.
I stand by my SP comment... ‘[currently] there is NO room for a spectacular fall’’….However I do agree with you this has already happened. If I denied this, then I would be a clown and comedian.

RNS imminent.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Calamari: I respectfully disagree with you. Small AIM stocks with little or no independent analysts’ coverage are manipulated by using BBs and social media. Small energy companies are a plaything for traders for long and short selling. Source para 4 http://www.cfdsurvivalguide.com/cfds/trading-aim-shares . In BPC’s case I have some evidence traders specialising in BPC signal each other with cancelled trades and herd commenting (or trolling) to affect market sentiment. This is difficult to do with a large market-cap company such as Apple. These traders can make substantial gains using CFDs and derivatives especially on days volumes are low.

The authorities have been made aware of this.

Good luck.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I had a productive 30min call with a BPC board member yesterday. Although the call was confidential and will remain so, I neither sought nor was given market sensitive information.

During the call I provided some constructive suggestions yet at no time did I get the impression the agreed meeting’s purpose was to pat a substantial BPC shareholder on the head for PR purposes or out of duty. The company does monitor BBs, is FULLY aware shareholders seek updates and will provide these as soon as possible when ready. Following the call I continue to remain both patient and bullish.

Although the matter wasn’t discussed, I continue to have the opinion that at the current market cap and share-price, there is NO room for a spectacular fall but substantial potential for spectacular rises. Please refer to my recent posts and research what news can trigger these https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

As for those that spend hours machine gun posting negativity dressed up as ‘warnings’ on this BB, usually with no research or evidence, what are their motives? Care and compassion for fellow human beings as an act of selfless sacrifice akin to being a volunteer in a soup kitchen for the homeless? Or for selfish gain to suit their trading strategy or to help special interest groups? Or out of pure spite because they lost money and wish to get revenge on the company and its shareholders? This para does not apply to real shareholders who occasionally make their feelings known out of frustration.

I am not a day trader (with a recent caveat in total transparency relating to BPC) and as such look at the medium (weeks) to long-term (12+ months) position rather than daily SP fluctuations. Unless every possible thing can go wrong in relation to BPC’s assets including the ex-CERP ones, I believe LTHs are fully hedged with a SP recovery to pre-Percy-1 drill result levels and more.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild

What I found interesting was the change to the 'Notice to editors' bit at the bottom, compared to pre-Percy-1 result on 8/2/21. My emphasis in CAPS.

Notes to editors
'..............BPC is a Caribbean and Atlantic margin focused oil and gas company, with a range of exploration, appraisal, development and production assets and licences, located offshore in the waters of The Bahamas and Uruguay, and onshore in Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname. In Trinidad and Tobago, BPC has five (5) producing fields, two (2) appraisal / development projects and a prospective exploration portfolio in the South West Peninsula. In Suriname, BPC has on onshore appraisal / development project. BPC's exploration licence in each of Uruguay and The Bahamas are HIGHLY PROSPECTIVE, and offer HIGH-IMPACT value exposure within the overall portfolio value.....'

Bottom line: Bahamas is still considered HIGH IMPACT, 3 weeks after the Percy-1 result. Let's wait for the deep dive autopsy RNS...hopefully soon. I'm not trying to spin anything, merely stating what I am reading.

GLA
Starchild

Changing the subject to something more productive than my previous post, Kevin, PoC, Novice thanks for bringing the Bahamas court update matter to our attention. What I found interesting on http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/feb/11/oil-opponents-bpcs-200000-demand-will-knock-out-le/ was Save the Bays is owed around $2m in historical costs from 3rd parties. I hope BPC eventually takes action and gets some of these assets redirected to BPC. When done, BPC can always write off what is due from the Gov or leverage something in return.

It will not surprise me if persons with deep pockets have a whip round so Save the Bays can find the $200k.

Personally I have no issue to a judicial review, if this makes future environmental approvals and admin approvals more clear cut in black and white………..blessed by the courts.

I too agree with some commentators on this BB, that an RNS is imminent.

Have a great day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I rarely react to personal attacks. When I do, it is usually politely using sarcasm or humour. (Google ‘Irene Albatross Starchild’). Neither do I judge people only their posts and usually respectfully. I invite you to judge the posts below from https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/harryoffdock/ ‘in his own words.’

At dawn on 12/6/20 Harryoffdock bombarded the BB with posts purporting outrage at the planned CERP merger stating he was going to share dump. By noon he was very happy and admitted on 14/6, (point 9) this was all a charade. Here are some of the timestamped posts. Point 11 was his admittance to being suspended for trying to manipulate [this BB] for personal gain.

1. 12/6 12:00: ‘if I have to ramp I will if I have to deramp I will gonna play this like a fiddle now. Smoke n mirrors,tell you what have made nice profit over last week n even have more shares n it feels good.aint made a bean in 8 years as lth was time for a change of tac.lot of second hand car salesmen on here took me long enough to realise that business is business and there are is no loyalty smoke n mirrors self interest in the most’.
2. 12/6 12:18: ‘you gotta be smart to keep your trousers up as I have learnt.people tend to believe what they want to. The smart know that and exploit that by befriending your opinion while helping you empty your pockets’.
3. 12/6 13:51: ‘can sell some more little profits add up to big profit,that's why I'm playing both ends now,fine line I know but have enough shares to pump n dump as I please never made a penny waiting for the jam to arrive.’
4. 12/6 14:06: ‘Tell u what this is so fuffing easy once you look at the whole picture.’
5. 12/6 14:11: ‘Can't be sad or unhappy am eventually making money after a long time is that what sad is bring it on.’
6. 12/6 14:21: ‘Am as HAPPY as hippo rolling in mud today probably over exuberance do apologise but am banking real £1 notes for a change all at profit,been here 8years know the cycle,now working it to my advantage.wont be out over w/end lots invested still so am happy as larry.’
7. 12/6 16:24: ‘Already playing the market before that smoke n mirrors I'm very happy hope you are have a good w/end.’
8. 12/6 20:48: ‘8years of that shxt never made a bean.happy to welcome any new punters to the fold, new cash always welcome.’
9. 14/6 12:50: ‘My vote will be a resounding NO and I have actually increased my holding of 4.5 mil over the last week at no extra cost.’
10. 14/6 17:40: ‘Right as I've said I am now here for self interest’
11. 13/7 11:23: ‘you have totally got me wrong, I have been in the abyss for the last four days. I was cast out n suspended for my shameful posts trying to manipulate the share price for my own gains. I was reported to the elders who brought down wrath upon me. So I now repent all my sins and only agree with the righteous lord and his followers who arrived from the stars to save us quite recently, love u gal'.

No comment. You be the 'ethics' judge.
Starchild

Pduk: There's a huge difference between a duster and commercial viability. This is why the Percy-1 autopsy RNS which we await is a key to the question about further exploration and farm-in possibilities.

As for political uncertainty:

1. The contract is water-tight

2. Just because a percentage of Bahamians don't want oil exploitation, led by a few very loud (probably American influenced) environmentalists and special interest groups, does not mean the majority are against.

3. A major such as Exxon is used to dealing with this sort of stuff. It doesn't stop them drilling in controversial places such as Alaska or in regions controlled by dictators or where human rights do not exist. (the latter 2 points does not apply to the Bahamas Gov)

4. As for royalty complaints, refer to how Exxon handled a similar case. https://apnews.com/article/9e1dd752edb53c7fb50360e8bf6bd291

Starchild
ps... don't quite understand your use of the word 'scripted'. I normally copy/past my morning post into a Word Doc so I can structure it for easier understanding and too a degree to minimise TYPOs. This is out of respect to the persons that read them and practically to ensure they are below the 3000 char maximum allowed per post.

Read an article from the weekend about $100/b oil worries on https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/02/28/worry-about-100-oil-emerges/

Watch Dr Zak Phillips’ 10 min interview from almost exactly 1 year ago proposing the possibility of $100/b+ PoO in 2022/23. He was right about BPC being able to get better rig rate due to the PoO collapse due to Russia/Opec and Covid would be temporary. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914647/oil--may-rebound-above-us100-by-2022-due-to-lack-of-investment---proactive-s-zac-phillips-914647.html

We await the final Percy-1 autopsy RNS. If it meets expectations or exceeds them, a JV/Farm-in with a major is even more likely due to the possibility of PoO being in triple figures. This is further under-pinned by the billions the majors were forced to cut in exploration spending during 2020 to protect their balance sheets. BPC’s Bahamas acreage can give them a substantial opportunity ‘on a plate.’ Why? To pay all or most of BPC’s back costs of c$130m and to undertake future exploration is relatively low capex for a major. It is also near Texas energy infrastructure as opposed to the middle of nowhere off the coast of Africa in deep waters. BPC has another leverage card to sweeten a Farm-in deal, the Major could have an option for first dibs in Uruguay.

An there’s another reason. The story of Guyana. It took several wells. Some were dusters and others non-commercially viable. Then in 2015 Esso hit the jackpot. Refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Guyana and for historical deep dive see from page 9 onwards on https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Traversing-a-Slippery-Slope-Guyanas-Oil-Opportunity.pdf

A bi-product of the above is Guyana and Suriname (where BPC is exploring and spudding soon) are, I believe, in the same geological basin.

Stevenwest: I wish you all the very best. I hope you recover your losses soon.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps: See latest news from BPC website re Suriname potential..... 'Upstream - Moving into the shallow waters' (Source https://www.bpcplc.com/news/ )

Direct: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2021/02/26172225/2021-02-26-Upstream.pdf

Have a great Sunday

Starchild

Mother AIM is swift to punish and reward her children. Rises and falls sometimes SPECTACULAR are based on a company’s fundamentals, market sentiment, newsflow and externals such as PoO, Covid-19 etc. BPC’s Mcap today is only £26m and arguably there is not much room it can spectacularly fall further.

Under-pinning everything is BPC’s revenue to pay the bills even at $40 WTI PoO and 500boe/day production. This means BPC is nowhere near insolvency, especially at the current oil price.

BPC has many enemies who want it to fail. Some to the point of hatred and spite who post day in day out on this BB and ADVF attacking and trolling BPC and its LTHs. Others have conflicts of interest and post to suit their trading positions. And yet others have or are acting for special interest groups, 3rd parties and possibly predator companies wishing to leverage assets on the cheap. Karma.

Some argue (without evidence or research), BPC is stuck in a trench surrounded by its enemies and will need to surrender. IMO BPC is by far in the ‘last chance saloon’ or ‘Custer’s last stand.’ The Percy-1 CoS was 35%. Despite the odds of failure being greater than success, BPC management subscribed $400k in the placing on 30/9 at 2p. (Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdz1k8w ) Why? The BoD has had ample time to war game all permutations with a road map to eventual shareholder value. Had Percy-1 been commercial, this success would have been spectacular. It wasn’t, but we got the next best thing: …… ‘The validation of a competent seal, good reservoir quality, charge and the presence of oil points to SIGNIFICANT hydrocarbon potential remaining in various independent, untested play systems and structures within BPC's extensive acreage.’……. (Source 8/2/21 result RNS)

We now await the following news:

1. Percy-1 autopsy (news definitely and imminently)

2. Farm-in (news possibly. If the autopsy meets or exceeds expectations, I will dare to say, ‘probably in weeks')

3. Trinidad: production update. Anything more than 500 boe/day is pure profit. CERP reached 1000+ in 2018. (news probably in March)

4. Trinidad: Saffron appraisal well (news definitely in March)

5. Suriname: Appraisal well and extended well test (news definitely in March)

Outlook? The SP WILL fall if ALL the above news is below expectations, but IMO there is not much room for a spectacular fall. On the upside, if some of this news equals or exceeds expectations, IMO the rise could eventually be spectacular.

If you are a newbie, please refer to my in-depth research and opinions here https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ . You will note I only research and comment on BPC as a hobby. This is because I am NOT a ‘day’ trader (with a recent caveat), and have no need, time nor inclination to post about other FTSE or AIM shares I own.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild