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[Reposted as for inexplicable reasons it was reported and deleted]

The formula based on the RNS:

1. Current assets’ production
Today 450-500b / day
Q2 2021: well fixing 50b / day

2. Infill project
H2 2021: 4 new wells 200-400b / day total

3. Saffron 2
July 2021 200-300b / day
Dec 2021 1000-1500b / day
2022/2023 4000b / day

4. CO2/Innis Trinity
2021: 243-547b / day (50/50 deal with PRD)

5. SWP
2021: I assume zero
2022: Could be a whopper

6. Suriname
July 2021 Spud/EWT
2022: 50 wells 900-1000b / day
2023-2024: a lot more

The formula results 1- 6:
• By Dec 2021: minimum RNS estimates 1 = 450 + 2 = 200 + 3 = 1000 + 4 = 243 + 5 = 0 + 6 = 0 = 2115b / day

• By Dec 2021: maximum estimates 1 = 550 + 2 = 400 + 3 = 1500 + 4 = 547 + 5 = 0 + 6 = 0 = 2997b / day

• By 2022 – 2024: Saffron 2 alone 4000b / day

Facts and opinions
a) Above excludes ANY Bahamas monetization/JV/Farm-in which could be a massive dollop of jam on the bread and butter.

b) BPC is no longer a binary win-or-lose risk. There’s now several plays to spread the risk/reward.

c) At only $60 PoO, based on 500b/day, BPC is making $3m/year net profit ($250k/mth) excluding Cap-Ex.

d) If the merger never happened, I believe the SP would be >1p (£50M cap) which CERP reached in Sept 2019 despite Lind/Schroders share dumping. BPC is substantially more advanced today than then and PoO is higher.

e) So why isn’t the SP >1p despite BPC’s potential? It’s partly based on concern there will be a placement by April 16 even though the funding bar has been set at 0.8p; because LTHs still disappointed on the Percy-1 result are waiting for more news before topping up or returning; so are new investors; and the constant negativity from +/- 6 BPC trolls/haters who machine gun post on the 2 main BBs doesn’t help. The few give the impression of being the many. Karma.

f) Upcoming news: Result of the court case 29-30/3, (which may explain why there’s radio silence or JV silence); the Percy-1 autopsy; funding update; 2020 accounts; and 17/5 S2 spud news.

g) Awaiting news before sharing my extensive SP modelling permutations.

I have marked BPC STRONG BUY last 7 days. IMO BPC is seriously undervalued especially after this RNS. Refer to my recent research.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zag: Thanks for honestly stating you are waiting to buy @0.4p after the ’next placement’. You will pay double if it’s @0.8p.

Jono44: You post politely and respectfully although always negatively and admit to having no BPC shares. I answered your questions why I post on this BB, so please answer mine: (a) Which special interest groups do you represent? (b) Are you assisting PRD directly or indirectly in its BPC objectives?

I’m all for non-violent activism. Without it, slavery would not have been abolished and women would not be allowed to vote. I believe global warming and pollution must be reduced, so I’m in favour of environmental activism to get governments to act.

Had the environmentalists acted in good faith to improve oversight and better government working practices as part of stakeholder focus groups, that’s OK. What I have issue with is HOW they ran their campaign: attempting to destroy BPC, de-rail its financing, intimidate suppliers such as LOL and Lloyds of London while spouting allegedly libellous falsehoods. For this shameful conduct, Karma.

The 29-30 March hearing is now listed (https://www.bahamasjudiciary.com/courts/hearing-list/ )

…….’‘We are pleased that the Court has recognised the inconsistency of this position, and ruled in BPC's favour. As a respondent to the application BPC will have full standing on the matter in Court, and in a cost sense, the applicants can be held financially accountable if their action turns out to have been without merit. BPC thus welcomes the ruling." (25/1 RNS)

Read http://www.tribune242.com/news/2021/mar/16/oil-drilling-end-so-far-done-deal/ What they say is not what they mean. The reason $200k has not been raised for costs security in full yet is NOT because it is perceived BPC has given up (it hasn’t, refer to RNSs), but because they will likely lose. Why? They had several years to act, did so at the last minute, compounded by their pre-trial conduct attempts to destroy BPC.

IMPORTANT: Backers could be personally held liable for costs. Read https://lightfoots.co.uk/risks-of-crowdfunding-litigation/

In the meantime their next target is…. Disney. https://ewnews.com/local-environmental-groups-to-conduct-thorough-review-of-disneys-lighthouse-point-eia Do these environmentalists backed by foreign millionaires with likely conflicts of interest, care about the economy ravaged by a hurricane and Covid-19? Does this minority self-proclaimed spokespersons for a nation care about its unemployment and destruction of its tourism industry? I suspect not.

How far will they go if they don’t get their own way with Disney? Start a misleading campaign using social media to boycott Disney Florida? Bully Disney’s suppliers and bankers? I don’t think they’d dare.

Ibiza28 may be right that BPC is waiting to get the court case over before a Bahamas update is issued. IMO it would add another layer of complication if something big was announced beforehand.

Nicodemus63: I’m pleased your PRD shares have soared. But what if in a few months Morocco is a duster, the PRD SP collapses to 1p, BPC executes a farm-in, all its ex-CERP assets come up trumps, the BPC SP hits 5p-10p (I’ve done SP permutation models) …… and I gloated with snide comments on the PRD BB? How would you feel? Karma.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Willec: Thanks for reminding everyone re the 1/12/20 RNS …. ‘Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname Strategy update: 2021 Work Program and CPR Results.’
(source: https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rg429jr )

Using it as a benchmark of BPC’s goals and fast forwarding to today, some observations, opinions or edits shown in [ ] below:
1. ….‘In the event of a discovery arising from [Percy-1] a separate CPR exercise will be undertaken.’ ….. [It is true real-time data was collected during drilling, however this and post-result analysis takes time. BPC HAS discovered a working petroleum system. It is therefore probable a CPR is being undertaken while I type which explains the delayed news. An independent CPR from a respected firm such as ERCE (https://www.erce.energy/news/ ) is akin to a financial audit by a top 4 accounting firm. It forms a key metric of prospectivity/asset value when a major undertakes due dili during farm-in talks. Furthermore, ERCE has more credibility than a BoD saying, ‘We think we’ve found a gazillion barrels…. have we got a deal for you…sign here Exxon.’ ]

2. ….‘BPC has been approached by various financing providers requesting the Company to consider the suitability of an RBL facility against its 2P reserves. If successful up to $10 million could become available during 2021….’ [An updated CPR (for Trinidad) can also be used for reserve-based lending. At $40 PoO, the benchmark figure was $2m for each 1m in 2P reserves.]

3. ….‘ERCE have not audited the SWP, including Saffron as part of this Independent CPR….’ [Yet]

4. …. ‘Drilling of Saffron #2 appraisal well commencing in February 2021, which, subject to results, would rapidly see BPC seek approvals for a Saffron field development, and with up to 7 production wells to follow through 2021’…[We await news]

5. …..’Drilling of appraisal well and an Extended Well Test (EWT) in the Weg Naar Zee Block in Suriname in February 2021, and subject to results, rapidly moving into a wider field development, with up to 6 production wells to follow through 2021’… [We await news]

6. …..‘Boost production from existing fields ….by preventative maintenance and a proactive continuous well intervention program to maintain baseline production of approximately 500 bopd, ….. are expected to result in 20%-35% increase…..with c$2m expenditure’….. [If BPC is on its way to achieving the lower 20% increase, ie, >600b/day, at $60/b PoO, $20 extraction costs, this represents c$9m/year $750k gross revenue to help self-fund new wells. Hence the BoD’s goal of 2,500b/day by year end.]

7. The RNS foresaw surplus cash of between $5m-$15m after paying Percy-1 costs. [Awaiting update]

I have marked BPC strong buy for 6 days for reasons stated in my recent posts. Based on the above I continue to do so in good faith rather than a raw ramp for the sake of it.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

AIM penny shares can quickly rise and fall spectacularly. This is based on news (company, sector, global), sentiment and sometimes manipulation. Small energy companies are notoriously game for the latter.

If a football team is on form, they play with confidence. When on a losing streak they do not. Rather than risk the coach’s wrath with amazing passes, dribbles, or goal attempts that go wrong, they often play negatively and defensively.

At present PRD is like a team on a roll. A 10.5p placement for £1.8m last week was significantly over-subscribed and welcomed by shareholders. The SP is now at 14p, a 5 year high. Had it been BPC, there would be uproar on this BB with the SP festering at the placement price for a month out of fear of the overhang, with hourly abuse at the BoD.

BPC is like a team that despite the odds against, reached the Champions League final 5 weeks ago but lost. So what! We can win it next year and are still on-course to win the triple this season. Some now want the coaching staff to be sacked. For goodness’ sake give them the benefit of the doubt. We can still win silver this season.

Since Thursday I have in good faith marked BPC as a strong buy and provided ample evidence. Refer to my recent posts.

Key points why IMO the SP should be at least 1p (£50m Mcap) even without news by comparing to CERP:

1. BPC is sitting on c$85m Trinidad corporation tax deductions worth c50% in real future cashflow.

2. BPC is in a better position to reach Leo Koot’s CERP 500m Mcap goal.

3. PoO and its potential into 2022/23 is more now than then.

4. We do not have Lind and Schroders share dumping.

5. CERP did not have spare income to maintain existing wells while trying to fund transformational company projects. Production went from 1000b (2018) to 450b a day (2020).

6. 4 weeks ago the funding bar was set at 0.8p which implies the institutional investor shares my view.

7. And my 1p/£50 Mcap view excludes ANYTHING to do with potential Bahamas news.

I share everyone’s frustrations at the lack of updates. I also fully accept some LTHs plan to jump-in again or top-up based on positive news. However, I firmly believe it will come shortly and already put my money where my mouth is (or I should say, keyboard) by buying over 10m more shares since 8/2/21. Why? Because IMO the SP can surge quickly and spectacularly, but cannot fall by much long-term.

My final point is two questions: What goal has the BoD failed to meet under its control? And why will the 2,500b/day c$30m net per year goal not be met by December?

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zag: I’m surprised by your tone referring to my 2 IceMax references as 'garbage'. I’m also surprised you didn’t figure out why I did so, as I made it absolutely clear a Percy-2 drill in April is extremely unlikely. It was not a cheap ramp.

It is worth reading the significant 16 February RNS again https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xq63oqr .

At the time it was quite well received compared to the Percy-1 result one of the previous week. The SP hit an 0.8p high on the day, before drifting back to the levels we have had since which included disposal of some (or all) of the 135m new shares given to suppliers on 22/2. (source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L )

Of significance despite the SP being in the 0.5p – 0.7p range until 16/2, a financial institution not known for philanthropy agreed to set the funding bar at 0.8p for an unconditional £2m BPC subscription to take effect on 28/2. This is unusual because institutions normally get shares, or security at a discount, NOT at a premium. We would all have been scratching our heads, had the 14/12/20 Lombard placing been at 3p when the SP at the time was c2.5p. (It wasn’t. LOL got them at 2p with a payback guarantee of 2.3p)

Key assumption: I do not profess to have the analytical skills or intellect of Sherlock Holmes, however I can only deduce the recent £2m subscription at 0.8p/share, means the BoD and institutional investor know something we do not. And this news will result in the SP increasing to more than 0.8p in the short-term. I’m open to alternative but rational opinions from the Dr Watsons amongst us. Elementary please.

I also believe we will know more this week as news is overdue. I continue to mark BPC strong buy, for reasons stated in my posts since Thursday.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA . Have a great week.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PS: the IceMax continues to ‘lurk’ in Bahamas waters https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.5/centery:25.5/zoom:9 ……. It would be great if a farm-in was announced soon and in the same RNS, confirmation Percy-2 will be drilled before IceMax does its Repsol spud in May/June. Subject to EIA approval. I’m quite sure BPC has had years to decide where Percy-2 will be drilled subject to the Percy-1 autopsy. (Environmentalists who read our posts: ‘don’t worry. Be happy.’ I believe this scenario is extremely unlikely as there’s very little chance the gov would provide approval so quickly due to the election.)

If you are a newbie considering whether to invest in BPC, for deep-dive research and opinions written in good faith, refer to recent posts from me and https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/tiburn/

Since Thursday I have marked BPC ‘strong buy’ because the SP has scope for a spectacular rise, but very little room for a spectacular fall (ie, <0.4p for weeks-on-end). Many AIM penny shares have fallen and risen spectacularly on a dime. Tullow’s SP collapsed last year to sub 10p on a knee jerk reaction and now 60p. On 12/2/21 the BPC SP collapsed following news commercial quantities of oil had not been found. The important point the market ignored in its knee-jerk reaction was a petroleum system had been found opening the door for a farm-in/JV.

Key points and opinions (45mins needed) to ascertain an investment case…

1. BPC’s Trinidad subsidiaries are holding tax credits of c$85m US. At 50% T+T corp tax, this is more than BPC’s current Mcap. Refer to my post 11/3 07:05am.

2. Refer to my post 9/3 05:25 justifying why BPC is worth more than 1p (£50m Mcap), with or without news, purely based on its ex-CERP assets.

3. Refer to my post 13/3 05:34 yesterday estimating BPC’s current cash position and why it has the cash to invest in its current short-term plans.

4. Refer to my post 12/3 06:54 which lists expected IMMINENT news. If this meets or exceeds expectations, the SP should soar.

5. Refer to my three posts 1/3 06:10, 7/3 05:07, and 11/3 04:16 on the psychology of why a major may do a farm-in/JV, based on Guyana and Falklands precedents.

6. PoO is c$70/b and analysts predict >$100/b in 2022/23.

7. For an alternative viewpoint, with well thought-out contrary arguments politely presented with evidence and expert research, refer to https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/irenekrapp/ . S/he appears to have the skills and intellect of a City analyst with a PhD.

Transparency: My family and I have >20m BPC shares, substantially down and as such this is not a cheap ramp to hopefully increase the SP by 10% Monday. It won’t make much of a difference to the current 6 figure loss! All my posts are in good faith for folks to make their own decisions.

Zag: My post yesterday did not state Stena WILL delay payment. They are not a charity but may do so for biz reasons if in April BPC commits to Percy-2 for 2022. The Percy-1 deal had a flexi 6–9-month lead time. If so, it doesn’t mean a farm-in will never happen. BPC can self-fund Percy-2 if the 2,500b/day target is met by y/end. A Stena delayed payment will give BPC cashflow for existing wells without punitive financing and will also show to majors BPC is not waiting cap in hand for a JV.

In4cedros: Thanks for the intel on T+T tax. As a round figure would you say c20% gross tax is about right until $85m net profit reached at which point Corp tax, currently zero, kicks in?

IMHO. DYOR. Enjoy Sunday

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I don’t know, but here’s some opinions. BPC had $15m last month. From this deduct:

1. Percy-1 costs remaining to suppliers. I estimate $7m, mainly to Stena. If they agree to delay payment until year end in return for some ‘goodies’ or potential future deal, a VERY positive inference should be drawn. If not, a negative inference should not. Stena is in a good mood. Last week they were awarded $411m against a Samsung Co. (https://www.offshore-energy.biz/samsung-to-pay-411-million-to-stena-drilling-after-losing-rig-dispute/ )

2. Legal fees. BPC has a $1.5m budget and spent $400k as stated in open court recently. Depending on BPC’s lawyers/barristers, they may agree to payment after the case ends.

3. Percy-1 autopsy. $5m was budgeted on a SUCCESS CASE. Based on real-time data collected during drill it had enough for Gneiss to open a farm-in data room 4 weeks ago. Under the 80-20 rule, let’s say $1m is being spent so experts can prove the well attributes/geology.

4. Trinidad: Saffron appraisal well. $2m

5. Suriname: Appraisal well and EWT. $2m

However, at current PoO, BPC is making a nice profit to pay all its Opex excluding Capex and OTCs above. My estimates:

6. 500b/day @ only $60 PoO = $40/b after $20/b extraction costs x 500 x 30 days = $600k per month. Deduct Opex of c$4m per year ($330k/mth) = $270k monthly minus T+T royalties/tax.

7. BPC stated it will self-fund existing wells out of income. In 2018 CERP produced 1000b/day, so it could now be more than 500b.

8. T+T taxes/royalties: (a) provision for corp tax is ZERO. BPC has a $85m tax credit. (b) SPT @50% is ZERO unless PoO over $75/b. (c) Gov land or private land royalties regardless of PoO is complicated. Nearest I can find is at the bottom of this out-of-date PRD presentation https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/operations/trinidad/ . Note: BPC has a 50-50 deal with PRD for the CO2 tests, but I can’t remember production figures.

In4cedros and other ex-CERP LTHs: kindly advise us on point 8!

IMHO. DYOR. GLA. Enjoy Saturday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps…

ChrisW545: your comment….. ‘Fxxx me Starchild r u still here banging the same drum? It’s done, give over, move on with your life, you can’t enjoy this!...’

Respectfully: I’m banging on a new louder drum, very much enjoying it, and excited at a potential full recovery to the SP and MORE, dependant on events in the next few months. It’s as exciting as playing Chess, losing the Queen, with my 2 pawns on the 7 squares potentially both being promoted as two Queens. I believed we were fully hedged due to ex-CERP excluding a potential Bahamas JV. I continue to do so and hedged further by buying millions of shares since the result, with the aim of a hefty profit with my remaining fellow LTHs. However, I will never criticize anyone that sold, unless they then post out of spite or revenge. I am not suggesting you have. ATB and GL.

The IceMax is marked as ‘waiting on orders’ and floating c50km north of Nassau. (source https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:199104/zoom:14 ).
Its next contract is for Repsol in May/June (source https://www.stena-drilling.com/new-contract-with-repsol-exploracion-mexico-s-a-de-c-v-and-its-partners/ )

Environmental approval for a Percy-2 should be an almost copy/paste formality. Even if environmentalists come up with the $200k court costs deposit by the 30/3/21 deadline, the default position other than an injunction is ‘business as usual.’ But why would there be an injunction if Percy-1 was completed safely with government representatives on-board verifying this fact?

BPC and Gneiss have now had 5 weeks gauging interest in a JV. Be funny if a deal is done with a major to drill Percy-2 in April, before hurricane season in June. It would be at a good rate as the IceMax is in-between contracts and near the drill location. However it would have to be organized and planned NOW (crew, supplies, specialists, contractors). I just find it strange the ship has not headed to its next supply location. For the record I’m not trying to start a ramp rumour out of ‘desperation’. I just found this interesting.

In the meantime although the above is very unlikely, we expect imminent real news on the following:

1. Percy-1 autopsy (definitely, followed by a promised conference call/presentation)

2. Farm-in (possibly. If the autopsy meets or exceeds expectations, I will dare to say, ‘probably in weeks')

3. Trinidad: production update. Anything more than 500 boe/day is almost pure profit, especially so due to PoO. CERP reached 1000+ in 2018.

4. Trinidad: Saffron appraisal well

5. Suriname: Appraisal well and extended well test.

Refer to my recent previous posts why I believe the SP and BPC Mcap is seriously undervalued even without news. IMO there’s no room for another spectacular fall to the SP, but plenty of scope for a spectacular sudden rise. STRONG BUY.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

BTW, I watched the anti-BPC you-tube clip Jonas44 gleefully posted, possibly I allege for the special interest groups he is fronting. Frankly it is not worthy of comment as there were obvious inaccurate assumptions and ‘facts’, superseded by RNS after it was uploaded a few days after the drill result. Anyway, I’m not going to attack the chap who was interviewed and clearly angry at losing money, although he admitted he only had a relatively small flutter due to the high risk. It’s just a shame he felt the need to go to such lengths to air his grievances. Perhaps he should have just moved on. If it made him feel better, fine. Personally I wouldn’t do such a thing as the bi-product hurts remaining LTHs. But that’s just my opinion. I’m not being preachy.

1. If majors want to show greenness why would they JV with BPC?

Money. The world needs oil and wants oil. Even if an amazing invention could remove 100% pollution and stop global warming, oil is needed for plastics, foodstuffs, animal feed. Furthermore, there are arguably more controversial projects than the Bahamas. Alaska, first-nation land, the Arctic, pipelines, fracking, Amazon. Then there are geo-political factors. Falklands (disputed by Argentina); South East Med (disputed by Greece/Turkey/Cyprus).

Key point: most of the BPC controversy is one simple issue: In case an accident causes a disaster despite the southern licenses being off the northern Cuban coast. Yet, there’s little concern oil tankers pass daily.

2. Oil majors don’t want the hassle

Possibly. Just because a wealthy group of international activists are very loudly against, and even attempted to destroy BPC does not mean the silent majority agree. If a major had control, they would have the power, influence and money to not only influence public opinion, but to unofficially influence which political parties win elections internationally.

Key point: Majors have massive PR/legal budgets, and water cannons to handle Green Peace.

3. Oil majors do not do wild-cat drills.

Incorrect. Oil majors DO undertake frontier exploration for example Guyana. And when PoO was $20-$30/b 20 years ago several partnered to explore the Falklands (Read https://www.offshore-mag.com/geosciences/article/16763337/postdrilling-analysis-identifies-other-play-types-in-falkland-basin ) ....... ‘the drilling campaign was a great success, with five of the six wells drilled having oil shows…... Live oil was recovered at the surface from one of the Shell wells. The oil had an API gravity of 27°, and was expelled from a mature source rock. Significant levels of gas were also recorded in some wells. Although NONE of the wells encountered COMMERCIALLY viable accumulations, sufficient information was developed about the basin and its petroleum systems to anticipate SUCCESS IN FUTURE operations…’

Key point: Last sentence above! This is where BPC is today but with better technology than 20 years ago to analyse results and plan for Percy-2, with or without a JV. PoO is much higher, drill ships cheaper/more advanced and its Bahamas acreage is not the Falklands which is in the middle of nowhere. Nor with Argentina type geo-political issues.

4. BPC’s share-price is a disaster.

Today I agree. I predicted an initial 0.5p knee-jerk reaction. BUT there’s huge potential for a surge with very little room for a collapse based on ex-CERP assets alone excluding a JV. SP can turn on a dime based on a decent RNS. Lots of investors waiting to jump in which could make the surge even greater. I already have, but respect those who are more cautious.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Tiburn: Thank you for your compliment yesterday

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