Enough of this tedium, back to AAOG.
JB has stated RNS Sep 27th
"A suitable rig and equipment to carry out the operations are currently being sourced. The production plan is ready to be executed as soon as we have a rig on site."
Rig is sourced - rapid start once rig arrives on site.
Wire group must have completed all their pre drill work, so as soon as the rig arrives at Tilapia, they can set up quickly and get going.
It will be confirmed any day from now until Nov 30th next week, contract and details finalised before end Dec 31st if Jan start confirmed.
Estimated timeline assuming rig is available in January, drilling approach doc confirms detail:
• Rig is in Congo so can be trucked rapidly - assume by Jan 5th at Tilapia
• Mobilisation for a week - drilling commences by Jan 12th
• Sidetrack timeline for drilling activity was max 30 days estimated
• The sidetrack starts at kick off point of 2200 md to 3000 md target depth - 800m drilling in total
• 30 days for 800m = average 27m per day drilling, (not linear, but a working average assumption)
• The top Djeno was found from 2,396md to 2,411md., so 200m of drilling = After 8 days top Djeno target may be hit and confirmed by AAOG from logging whilst drilling, so this news may be expected on or around Jan 20th
• Feb 12th drill completion and Middle Djeno results within this period and after wireline checks.
• Perforate, flow rate testing and checks, make good - in full production by end February/early March may be possible.
Botswana Diamonds – where Angela posted this on Nov 11th:
“I too bought in more paying 1.29- which is the highest I have paid, looking at buying a few more although risk is high”
The price now 0.9p, a 40% drop in 9 days - basically averaging down, no stop loss in place.
The general tone of her posts elsewhere is one of self congratulation at her supposed trading success, she doesn't come across as a particularly delusional nutter as on here, just arrogant and strident at times - she has no BB presence anywhere else I can ascertain, more than half her total posts are here, and she isn't and wont ever be invested in AAOG.
I don't think she gets paid, she just uses AAOG as a dumping ground for all her trading and life frustrations, I think she starts her own threads as is a very independent woman by her tone and this is a control matter by her mores, most posters on here are probably middle aged professional men, so her comments directed towards this Gentleman's club atmosphere aswell it seems to me, Misandry in strident action.
I don't personally care if she is female, male or Martian - some of my favourite people are women, but she is categorically not one of them.
I dislike her because of her trolling of AAOG with no debate or reason, making things up and twisting everything to the negative and unreasonable - not one acknowledgement of any positive in all her posts is not rational and strikes me as the ostrich behaviour she so readily uses as an insult to LTH having a generally positive approach.
The commentary on the SP is her last negative area to focus on with any veracity, JB has sorted out all the other issues step by step, so as the SP is low until news we get these utterley tedious pearls of wisdom each night.
Well from now on, each time she does this, I will post comments on shares she owns in her portfolio to expose the fact that she suffers, as do we all, from the vagaries of AIM and is no superior trader looking down on AAOG LTH.
As I knew she would comment last night, I prepared the following to post this morning (good luck if your in these shares, this is addressed to her alone)
RBD - £24m raise recently and 7 Billion shares now in issue - an SP fall from 1.4p to 0.88p , being a 55% drop since August
Angendas last post there doesn’t provide much confidence:
“It is to be noted that 2 of the major IIs appear to have pulled their investments at losses because 'monetisation 'does not mean dividends. I firmly believe the assets are sound and will eventually create a responsive SP where alI can gain substantially on holdings so I have been adding not selling.”
So averaging down as AAOG LTH have had to do Angela, even though II are leaving your share - Miton isn't leaving here though is it?
Botswana Diamonds – where Angela posted this on Nov 11th:
“I too bought in more paying 1.29- which is the highest I have paid, looking at buying a few more although risk is high”
The price now 0.9p, a 40% drop in 9 days - magnificent trading
I would suggest LTH could make a personal comment on this awful troll, she may get the message and just leave.
It shows how quickly this can move upwards on just a handful of retail investors taking a position today.
News soon on rig - if January spud then this will rerate, it will have two months to do so to end Jan and drill finalised, with PSA licence details and SMP decision expected in that period also to add impetus.
Interesting that JB announced the rig news the way he did in the last RNS, he could have justifiably waited until it was confirmed either way as Jan or end Mar.
It could be that he knows with sufficient confidence already, and the end March issue is a very remote possibility from his discussions with SFP, it just needs the final formal confirmation of their intent before Nov 30th.
The RNS timing of upto two weeks for a decision allows some time to consider investment strategy for II and PI.
Invest when drill is confirmed for Jan could be decided in this period, with the arrangements made to take a position on confirmed news.
The Term lending agreement offtaker company name will be known to the II JB is talking with, this International oil marketing company confidence to supply the RBL would give II more confidence to invest.
"James Berwick, CEO, said, "We welcome the opportunity to secure this offtake and prepayment financing for the development of Tilapia, which, in the success case at TLP-103C-ST, avoids the need for further equity financing and subsequent dilution for shareholders as we expand the production capacity of the site. We are working hard towards finalising definitive agreements that can be signed after TLP-103C-ST has been successfully drilled."
"Working hard towards finalising definitive agreements "
That sense of urgency in the RBL legal agreements preparation ongoing doesn't sound like a drill in April, but one going ahead in 6 weeks.
• Rig approved for Jan 2020
• SNPC payments continue or are offset against rig future costs
• PSA terms ratified in December 2019
• SP improves drastically as certainty introduced towards spud
• SMP claim supported – upto $3.1 million awarded to Anglo in December
• End Jan – Djeno hits as expected and production starts in Feb
• RBL kicks in – pipeline built
• Four drill programme in immediate effect
• No rig until April 2020
• No further SNPC payments
• PSA terms not ratified for months – more uncertainty
• ISA sales causes further SP decline as no market for buys
• SMP claim dismissed – no money for AAOG
• End April No Djeno hit, but Mengo backstop production to 1500 bopd
• Reduced RBL kicks in, but enough for TLP-104 to be drilled in May
Even worst case, the company moves forward substantially next year.
You can choose the believe Codey, he has an opinion
Miton Director Gervase Williams, who decided on the AAOG investment:
"As Managing Director of Miton Group plc and one of the most prescient commentators in the City of London, Gervais Williams has written three books, Slow Finance (2011) and The Future is Small (2014) and The Retreat of Globalisation (2016). He has a natural ability to anticipate market trends and this has stimulated much of his writing.
As a professional investor Gervais has received many awards, including the Grant Thornton Quoted Companies’ Investor of the Year Award in both 2009 and 2010; the Diverse Income Trust plc was recognised as the Best New Investment Trust by the Association Investment Companies when it was set up; and in 2014 he was adjudged to be What Investment’s Fund Manager of the Year."
its a tough one, may need deep some thought.
Very good news they remain and still believe and have patience, if Miton stay with £millions invested, what does it tell you?
Miton invested in Block Energy , but then started selling after their well was announced as producing 1400bod, with a $12m placing following, only for it fall off back to 50 bopd shortly after. They can and do adjust their risk, they havnt at AAOG.
Miton holding was 9.2% at one stage last year:
now at 4.1% and reducing
Thinking further on the ramifications of the RBL , as its does intrigue.
Images of the TLP-103 spud ceremony many moons ago show all the great and good of Congo oil sector in attendance, including no doubt the Ministry of Energy team.
When the Djeno 12m was found, came to surface and subsequently proven by SNPC at 43 API, there would have been a briefing for the Minister on what this meant for SNPC revenue, being a 44% partner.
With so many bad news events in this sector in recent times for Congo leading to the IMF bailout, any good news is going to go right to the top man as proof of his inferred competence, its the same in any business - make the big man look good at all costs.
So that Djeno RNS was March 29th, a month later the full 25 year licence awarded to AAOG, all happy.
Since then, much delay, finance issues and slowly the good news story for the Minister becomes an embarrassment for him that the project has not progressed for months.
He cant have it both ways, allow SNPC to pay their way to expedite and take all their revenue for Central Govt needs, so in exasperation he instructs that SNPC offers the SFP rig to Anglo to expedite.
If January drill spud, all is forgiven, big smiles, he solved the problem by his great innovation in difficult times, all win.
If April drill, then a years delay really doesn't look good for this flagship SNPC 44% partner project, and SNPC work for him.
"SFP may extend such contractual commitments until (but not beyond) 30 March 2020 and will notify AAOG on or before 30 November 2019 as to whether its contractual commitments have been extended. "
It appears to be SFP decision to extend to April or not - but giving any weight to this scenario outlined, its very unlikely they would.
The RBL facility secured could be part of the constructed deal - SFP/SNPC provide the rig for a year in lieu of repayments and their share of ongoing drill costs.
Equally, its very interesting that JB got the RBL Term loan facility agreement pre drill results, have many seen that done before? As I understand it, its almost always negotiated based on actual BOPD production and booked revenue, then a factor of this is applied to determine the negotiated lending cap.
Benchmarking to other oil sector RBL agreements, the $25m is equivalent to around 5000 bopd, that's confidence from both the "offtaker" and Anglo that Djeno is coming to production with the sidetrack.
Also, would the RBL be limited only to Tilapia spend?
This statement intriguing in June finals
“At present, the Company is focused on drilling TLP-103C and producing commercial volumes of high-grade oil from it. At the same time, the Company is evaluating other asset opportunities in the Congo and, possibly, further afield. The Company is particularly interested in assets offering similar risk/reward profiles to Tilapia. The Company believes that any future acquisition of assets that are attractive in terms of their risk profile and value would diversify risk and build a larger, more sustainable group.”
I dont recall any info on other assets being considered in Congo - could AAOG have bid for one of the 18 licence blocks and currently being considered by DGH, or something else?
There seems to be a shroud of secrecy surrounding this company, not much volume, even media doesn't increase interest it seems at this time. Also, a refreshing lack of trolls, and it seems normal price action based on buys and sells, no appearance of shorting or much trading of price surges to be honest, but a lot of LTH and small shares in issue.
Combine all that and its a candidate for II taking positions, they just needed to see the evidence of gas and hopefully oil strike in the fields.
This could be one of the shares that reaches its full potential.
As this well flowed , it adds value to the TXP exploration approach, their Geo tech team and modelling done to establish what targets and where to best drill.
There will be a lot of further modelling rework now , on all their upcoming prospects.
II may well be evaluating their investment models aswell, delayed reaction here, but for how long?
JB has gained some momentum over the summer to date, although not enough surety yet for the market to assign any SP value and encourage investment:
- DS has resigned and JB in control
- Drill Funding is secured - AAOG have moved from planning to operations
- All technical team in place for substantial field development
- Detailed sidetrack and field production plan finalised
- Wire Group must have completed the pre drill prep activity
- Ideal Rig identified and agreement made - start date to be confirmed any day up to Nov 30th
- PSA licence terms confirmation must be soon if talks were held in Oct
- Reserves based lending term agreement - sidetrack success releases $25m funding
But what if the rig only free in April instead of January?
Would JB just wait for 5 months ? The share will be utterly moribund in that period.
After he found the oil (normally the hard part) JB has been fighting through technical analysis on approach, resolving AAOG mistakes and finance issues, wading through Congo beaurcracy - all to get to this point - drill ready, all planning done, rig identified - then........wait 5 more months? and this is the best rig option?
I just don't see how he could possibly entertain this April start, if at all viable in any form he has to drill with another rig earlier, bwdik - or perhaps he is considering another approach?
Is it possible to stimulate Mengo/Rzones now, then go back in April, make good, and then drill Djeno in this well hole as planned for sidetrack?
If not, then produce from Mengo and just start TLP-104 in April with the RBL funding and revenue in the meantime.
The longer term strategic finances are one thing waiting for the Djeno target, but surely enough is enough now.
Hindsight is a great thing - but if this option is done, it should have been actioned in April this year, but who knew?
except Sardy and BC :)
You make a very valid point, this is one of the times a PI can get ahead of II that take longer to invest
Then it snowballs as the herd joins
161 m share in issue is tiny, when volume does pick up it will move
great management and assets being proven
Tiburn on Trek
debt is useful to pay for exploration and adding revenue, it was misunderstood when announced.
Its very interesting PB increased the lending facility so much, expect an expansion of drilling plans news soon, as he knew about the initial results when he did interview.
each drill opens up a pool and multiple follow on wells - this is massive when extrapolated
market asleep, but this seriously de risked now, all upside here with ever increasing backstop production
In finals Jun 28th it stated:
“SNPC acknowledges the full amount of the debt and has stated its intention to meet its obligations over the coming months at a rate that will extinguish the amount owing by the end of the current licence period – in July 2020. “
They made a payment later that day for $850k:
“This is the fourth and largest such consecutive monthly payment received from SNPC and will be applied towards the Company's ongoing working capital requirements. SNPC has confirmed that it will continue to make payments on a monthly basis “
SNPC then default on this written arrangement immediately, no payments in July, Aug, Oct and now Nov to date – they met every payment each month from Feb-Jun before. So only one $600k Sep payment in the last 5 months, lost receipts of upto $3m in period, which couldn't be relied upon, but may have caused some delays in securing a rig.
If SNPC had met their stated intentions in June to continue to pay each month, in increasing amounts, it could be argued that JB would have contracted one of the rig companies for start in November, despite high mob fees and potentially no availability for further back to back drills.
SNPC may have offered the rig as full repayment write for at lower cost offset over a year of drilling, as negotiated in the PSA talks that should have taken place in October, this SFP rig news on Nov 12th correlates in timing.
AAOG have the rigs exclusive use for four further drills back to back, now Anglo have the RBL term facility ready to pay for it in full without SNPC payment contribution and following sidetrack success, this could well be the best rig option in country, in financial, technical specification and strategic field development terms, for AAOG and for SNPC to contribute and retain 44% or similar, given their poor cash reserve circumstances.
SNPC basically align much closer with Anglo in any scenario - a default circumstance being as they have no other drilling elsewhere for a year with their preferred rig, all their exploration and development eggs are in the AAOG basket for the coming year.
The journey to book this sidetrack has been both convoluted and mysterious.
RNS Aug 5th
“The Company has identified two suitable drilling rigs, both currently situated in the Republic of the Congo, which have drilling slots available this year. The company is evaluating commercial offers from both rig companies and will update the market once the chosen rig is contracted.”
RNS Sept 11th
“The Company's management continue discussions with the operators of two potential rigs, both currently situated in the Republic of the Congo, with a view to securing a drilling slot during November.”
RNS Sept 27th
“Negotiations are ongoing with two potential rig providers, both of which have rig units in the Republic of the Congo. The Company is also scouting for other units with minimal mobilisation charges as a fallback option.”
RNS Nov 12th
“We are very pleased to have entered into the Rig Agreement and look forward to commencing operations at TLP-103C-ST as soon as the Rig becomes available. The Rig is the most suitable rig available in country”
AAOG had two commercial offers, were having discussions with the two drillers, which then became negotiations with both – it doesn’t appear one was shortlisted, they then decided to look around for another rig with lower mobilisation charges.
From this it could perhaps be concluded that both commercial offers had high mobilisation costs, which they would not reduce in negotiations, AAOG didn’t like the overall costs.
and/or the rigs were not available for the further four drills plan, as outlined in the Term RBL facility RNS, so JB didn't book either of them.
As Skittish has outlined, the key could be SNPC, their payments status, the ramifications of being a 44% partner and the eventual rig actually sourced being via their subsidiary SFP.