Member Info for Tiburn

Bond funding enables detailed evaluation of the field - Phoenix have a viable profitable mine right now given finance with less than 5% of the area evaluated.

Can expect rapid and focused development - they have had the time to best plan.

Dividend cut to prepare for US market positioning of respectability and solid performance optics, the new divi does that rather than an outliner.

it can grow and sustain performance, swaps out certain shareholders, over time nothing to see here removes shorters, more cash for the business as outlined.

Main issue is patience

SP at present is irrelevant until bond news

bond announced - rerate and plan unfolds

could be tomorrow

A 15% increase on production from a known asset they operate to gain 100% ownership is ultra low risk.

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2023/04/13/the-importance-of-embracing-change-in-business/

"Albert Einstein defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." While Einstein wasn't specifically referring to business, his words hold true in any context. If you want to see different outcomes, you must be willing to try different approaches."

CEO trying a different approach to move the mcap north and attract investors, based on solid steady performance and a maintained SP at the least, but expecting a growing SP based on performance.

If nothing else, shorters may move on to other targets, it will be boring here for a while, but boring is good for DEC at this time.

Lock in a Quarter of stable SP, then another, provides possibilities to sustainably increase dividend without the recent background flack. Better to position now.

The acquisition was well done, 15% prod increase, greater exposure to Gulf market and LNG export boom, consolidates position, enables greater hedging protection:

" Diversified will acquire certain hedging contracts from Oaktree that will provide ongoing protection despite the recent downturn in the gas market at volumes consistent with the Company's overall hedging strategy while also maintaining strong long-term cash upside potential from the Assets."

overall company restructure, demonstrating strength to US investors, stable for 3 years should provide growth and II positions taken as the strategic plan is demonstrated:

-Systematic debt reduction

-Fixed per-share dividend

-Strategic share repurchases

-Accretive strategic acquisitions

Prod start is being advanced as rapidly and at lowest cost possible, substantial saving in cash and the equally as important lead time reduction as Trek outlined.

Great news on this prod equipment being secured, but as PXC stated:

"However, Phoenix does not intend to update the market on all future equipment purchases, unless they materially affect the Project's economics."

Overall however, I thought the RNA detail the wrapping for this one line:

"pre-feasibility study currently being finalised."

finalised = release of bond....

Crom

The fact that Phoenix have kept share volume low, by choice instead of taking the easy dilution route , demonstrates their belief, they all have serious positions in their Company, its a key investment criteria ticked.

Capital markets have been very constrained, its no reflection the Phoenix proposition - just a few years ago they would have secured the Bond by now, had multiple backers .

Funding soon now, not many shares in issue.

Once the funded strategic plan is marketed , equipment bought up front to advance to prod revenue

Not likely they spend finite funds on development equipment , if the funding for the early prod and evaluation full roll out en masse is not secured, they would stall with serious repercussions - cant play secured suppliers, logistics disrupted - reduced recourse.

Waiting now on lawyers to realise their max fee potential and sign off.

As DEC is UK listed, would it qualify for the UK ISA?

The offer has got the attention moved on from the Democrat attack through a convoluted opaque offering that can be interpreted multiple ways - yet still have merit where you land.

This isnt by chance , nicely done

They could work the margins , appeal to retail with a clarification RNA , but imo Its designed to confuse shorters and assist II positions, assess response and adapt for next time.

If it was to appeal to retail then the offer would have been 20%.

There are some top draw PI who disagree on interpretation, so what is the average Joe going to think?

Many who work in large cap organisations may have frustrations why the obvious actions are not taken, quick wins seemingly ignored, strategy not realised that would benefit Company growth. Whilst not party to all the constraints and nuance of decision making, sometimes entrenched positions may limit innovation, not enough time to focus due to day job pressures.

This bulletin board could provide good insight, as many obviously know DECs operation very well, have hard won business experience on what works and what could be considered - its not sector specific.

There is probably someone in DEC tasked to monitor this BB, so perhaps constructive viewpoints and considerations may be imparted.

My effort:

1 - Concerted campaign against shorting - procure a management consultancy research exercise on other company response to this paradigm, what worked, what could be considered by DEC - develop action plan and initiate.

Https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38252

Gas share influenced by NG price.

In context USA requires 4 times the power generation it has now, gas use will scale, if produced as environmentally friendly as possible as by Diversified, its the optimum partner to renewables for rapid response to energy need.

DEC well placed to profit by their supply to the growing demand - growing industry base reshoring energy needs combined with the EV exponential power requirements - pragmatism should win out , renewables are too variable to be relied on as base load elec producer.

Rain, your post:

"Why do they need two gigantic ball Mills?

think about it

So why buy production equipment then with their last few funds?

Prod can occur in tandem with full asset feasibility studies

Has to mean the Bond is within sight, presumably new information on Bond timelines they were able to share with RF to allow this type of structured deal to be agreed, in capital terms five times the previous RF drawdown demonstrates confidence in RF being able to lend this and make a good profit as Phoenix are fully expected to be in production.

The new facility then covers cash flow needs, advance production until revenue starts to flow - they do not need to use it but the fact its available reduces risk of future direct dilution events to cover funding gaps, causing delays and poor market perception:

"The Company is not obliged to make any further drawdowns."

Perhaps the Bond issuer required this type of RF drawdown facility to cover day to day O&A rather than their funding, business plan for the Bond spend itemised specifically for plant etc, a dependency that is now satisfied, allowing the Bond to complete:

"We now look forward to closing our corporate copper bond issue as soon as possible."

Https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-takes-lead-with-21-share-in-global-lng-market/3147969#

"The US has increased its share in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade from 1% in 2016 to 21% by the end of 2023 to become the world’s top LNG exporter.

According to Anadolu's compilation of data from CEDIGAZ, the International Information Center on Natural Gas, the US exported 84.3 million tons of LNG to global markets last year."

Growing LNG market , provides opportunities for Diversified.

Greater extraction rate , faster decline in fields to serve the growing demand, more assets to procure that fit the DEC business model.

If the bonds were not on the cards, then the CEO would have finally admitted defeat and gone with the traditional route and raised a lot more, towards billions of shares, as is the norm and self funded this. But then he and people he has brought inside have large share positions, so what does that tell you?

129000 shares bought by CEO

£100k of his net salary is not insubstantial, he also expects a return

indicative

"What we can look forward to is income streams coming online within 2024."

let it play