London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

IceMax: You are attempting to analyse every possible permutation without knowing how much the final Stena bill is and assume a worst case scenario resulting in a future disaster CLN (as opposed to a CNN as you have stated). Some could go a step further and have concerns that Cuba/Russia will invade The Bahamas as the oil is near the Cuban border and Cuba wants it for regional geo-political reasons.

For ex-CERP assets, BPC presentations have stated there are many lenders prepared to lend against infrastructure that will produce oil, which in turn can result in RBLs subject to 2P CPRs. This is why +/- April is a key date as some ex-CERP assets will be more clearly understood following appraisal.

I suggest you agree to disagree with me, rather that post aggressively.

Starchild

It was great so many took part in the Facebook group’s….. ‘good-riddance to Lombard Odier campaign by buying £333.33 BPC shares….’ To publicly show contempt to the way LO has handled the matter. LO should have waited until after the result, before publicly ‘regretting’ involvement. In round figures, assuming all c560m LO shares are sold before the 12/2 deadline at an average of 2.15p, this means BPC theoretically owes LO 0.15p per share. Total c£850k. I hope BPC refuses to pay this. Let LO sue and get even more bad publicity.

My trade didn’t show up yesterday and many others weren’t exactly £333.33. I suspect the HL trading platform makes a bit on the side by offsetting or merging sells/buys. I consider this ‘cheap,’ distorts trading statistics and can confuse auto-trading algorithms. Please send a secure message asking for clarification. And if you get a wishy washy answer, escalate! Most of us pay a fee for an execution-only trades. It doesn’t mean they have the right to add a ‘tip.’

Note the 10:09am 24.3m large sell, probably LO, was not delayed reporting. This was the MMs probably saying, ‘we know you know what’s going on with LO. They sold a large chunk, so buy now.’

121,757,282 shares traded yesterday (Lvl 2) plus tens of million on Aquis. ( https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/for-investors/trades?securityidaqse=BPC.GB )
I estimate over 300m in total last week inc Aquis (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L), so the LO overhang of <235m on 29/1 has been reduced substantially this week.

Personally speaking, the two main reasons I wanted a strong BPC share-price prior to result was to limit dilution when raising funds (eg LO); and in case I or the many friends I introduced BPC to, wished to sell due to their circumstances prior to the Percy-1 result. I see BPC shares as the equivalent of a foreign currency savings account. (I await sarcastic comments). I have never lost sleep when my family’s USD savings have swung enormously over EUR and GBP…..unless we needed to convert a large chunk at a low rate. Similarly, although I accept not everyone agrees with me, I believe we are likely fully hedged with ex-CERP in the event of a duster, subject to patience. And I base this on recent analysts’ reports of potentially c£300m MC on ex-CERP alone. This represents c6p SP, but OK, let’s be cautious and call it 3p.

Brent PoO c$60, WTI >$57. This is great for ex-CERP assets now, and more so when new wells come on stream. Also of cash-flow benefit since 1/1/21, the T+T Gov increased the ‘super-tax’ threshold from $50/b PoO to $75/b.

All IMHO, so DYOR as I could be wrong.

Final thought: ‘Anyone who can pull a rabbit out of their hat is strange. Why carry a vibrat0r on one’s head, unless a bit k1nky?’

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ (Link to lots of research)

Pduk re your post at 08:42 today 4/2/21: ………………’Starchild, Potter specifically stated the opposite. That BPC would continue to total depth if they didn't hit resource. This is a very clear and concise point which has been raised and confirmed on the BPC shareholders Facebook. Can I ask, why do you sign off each post with your username and link to profile? It's highly narcissistic……’

A few respectful observations as I was named….. with the caveat I rarely respond to trolling as I am a busy man and have more meaningful things to deal with in my life:

1. Narcissism. This word has been used a few times about me. I’m actually quite humble and meek even though I am told quite famous within the galaxy, hence my name. To prove this, find a rock that weighs at least 5KG, ideally 20KG. Post it to any embassy of any country outside the UK (you have to pack and buy the stamps, and please don’t forget to mark the parcel ‘air-mail.’). Make sure it is clearly addressed, ‘Starchild, Planet Earth’ and it will probably be delivered by hand via diplomatic pouch within 24 hours. To ensure priority processing please add a reference of ‘Pduk-know-it-all-who is fond of gerbils’.

2. My posts are always in good faith, with links and when I give opinions heavily caveated with words such as ‘probable’, ‘possible’, ‘I believe’ and ‘opine’, so that everyone can make their own decisions.

3. Your posts have no caveats and as far as I can see never show links to provide credence or evidence to your opinions, other than inferring your word is both fact and gospel which implies alleged narcissism. Here are your posts https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/pduk/ . Here are mine https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ . All you seem to do is take cheap pot shots at people across the LSE BB.

4. I add the link under my name so newbies who have not realised how to access previous posts can look at mine, so they can make their own decisions.

5. PROVE with evidence/links that ….. ‘[Mr] Potter specifically stated the opposite. That BPC would continue to total depth [of 5300m] if they didn't hit resource. This is a very clear and concise point which has been raised and confirmed on the BPC shareholders Facebook………..’ So what changed since the Stena RNS in May when the drill schedule was estimated at 30-45 days vs 45-60 days now? Did BPC go for the cheaper option of a slower drill?

6. I suspect you are an amateur trader trying to show knowledge and importance to ‘play’ the BPC stock. However from my observations at this time you failed on both.

Listen ‘mate’. Be respectful to others and it will be reciprocated. Stop insulting people. Have a great day. I wish you well.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ps…the only reason I bothered to respond is that a few recent additions to our BB family , appear to fit point 5.

Refer to the Stena announcement RNS 26/5/20 https://www.investegate.co.uk/bahamas-petroleum-co--bpc-/rns/drill-rig-contract-signed/202005260700138346N/

In the section ‘Table 1: Rig Contract Key Terms’, the drilling duration was then estimated at 30 - 45 days. At 1130am GMT today, it will be the start of day 47 since spud.

Assumptions and opinion:

1. I assume a few days were included for rig demobilization within the then 30 – 45 estimated. It is currently a 45 - 60 day estimate.

2. Had there been NO evidence of oil, I believe BPC would have cut its loses on +/- day 30 and conserved cash and ear marked it for ex-CERP development.

3. Rockhopper drilled in approx the same sea depth as Percy-1. It announced its first Falklands oil discovery on 6/5/10, only 20 days after the 16/4/10 spud. (source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockhopper_Exploration)

4. Day 30 after the Percy-1 spud was 19 January. Instead of BPC pulling the plug by telling Stena to plug the hole, a few days previously on 12/1 BPC exercised its Lombard ‘put’ option for $5m. I see this as positive inference. Otherwise why dilute shares and burn cash? Furthermore, this possibly explains why BPC included a 6 day ‘put’ option on 7/1. (refer to RNS below). 7/1 was only 18 days after spud. 12/1 was day 23.

5. Unless there have been technical issues substantially delaying the drill’s progression, every day that passes, especially when exceeding the original 45 day ‘maximum,’ could be seen as positive inference.

6. This is perhaps why on 7/1, an RNS stated……. ’the Call must be exercised before the earlier of (a) the date of BPC's RNS announcement of the Perseverance #1 well results and (b) 12 February 2021, failing which, the Call will lapse.’ …… (Source: para 6.2 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0y5j8x ). I believe if we are still drilling after the 12/2 Lombard option deadline, it implies oil has almost certainly been found (if not already) and the IceMax is at the deeper zones. Which is why the 12/2 deadline exists. What other possible reason could there be for burning cash 54 days after spud? To ’trick’ Lombard into handing an extra $5m which BPC has probably exceeded by drilling deeper?

As a side point, 18 Feb is arguably the date a less important ‘Perseverance’ will be in the news. It is scheduled to land on Mars.

Bottom line: an announcement could be made imminently. The longer it takes, in my opinion the inference is positive.

Disclaimer: All the above is IMHO. This is a high risk high reward stock. Do not make investment decisions by reading posts on this BB, including mine. ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS DYOR as there are some people on this BB whose aim is to manipulate others for selfish gain. Or simply hate CERP and BPC for reasons unknown.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for Starchild

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for Starchild

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Please enter at least 2 characters

No results found

Search results

Recently viewed

Trending