Member Info for spike501

Good progress from Cablevision Monterrey in rolling out the Mirada software. "Cablevision Monterrey, and enjoyed growth ahead of expectations, ending the period with more than 100,000 set-top boxes spread among over 60,000 households". That works out around 1.7 boxes per subscriber. Cablevision Monterrey have 450k subscribers at at current rate around 25% will have been upgraded to Mirada software in 1 year. The next two networks rolling have 2.2million subscribers - add in the remaining 300k Cablevision Monterrey subscribers and Mirada software will be available for 2.5million subscribers next financial year assuming rollout occurs as planned. If they rollout at the same rate that will be 625k subsribers next year and assuming a similar number of boxes per subscriber then that is approaching 1.1million boxes and upwards of $3.3million in licence fee revenue from this alone. The further two networks to roll out have 1.2million subsribers - depending on whether and when in the financial year these roll out this could add several hundred thousands in dollars in licence revenue next year and the following financial year, Mirada will be accessing almost 3million subscribers. Other than that the interims were more of less as expected. With revenue on track to meet market expectations and market expections for around £7million in revenue it will be a strong second half and at the end of the year if acheived the balance sheet should look healthier, especially after the recent placing - net current assets minus long term debt should be marginally in the black, whle currently it is the red by about £2.6million.

Jolly - the red flags weren't that qpp and gbo had weak free cash flow, Its that they had very weak conversion from revenue to cashflow. They were booking up large revenues, much of it accruals which were just not converting into cash. Similarly the chinese frauds were claiming large cash balances but were cutting dividends or paying them in scrip and generally acting in a way that didn't suggest they had the cash claimed - in fact given the cash claimed there was no reason for them to list on AIM in the first place. Quindell and Globo both grew rapidly through acquisitions and maintained a web of part or fully owned subsidiaries that considerably reduced any transparency. Both companies also made changes to auditors. Quindell did have the cash but the revenue was not real - Globo didn't have the cash and it seems a main reason that it got a long so far was because much of it was in subsidiaries and supposedly deposited across a number of countries and the audit of those subsidiaries was not part of the audit scope - allegedly one of the reasons the previous auditors was replaced was because they wanted to increase the scope. Mirada has a simple company structure and its cash is easily auditable in major spanish banks - besides they don't claim to have much cash. Revenue translates reasonably well to cash, and expenses are fairly easy to reconcile. As the end of last year, accrued revenue had increased to about 20% of total revenue but this is not unexpected as they are doing a lot of work for Televisa that they only invoice at certain milestones - mostly at rollout. Again I don't believe Matt Earl would still be there if there was anything dubious about their revenue accruals.

Jolly, its certainly true and I'm not claiming no risk here, however GBO, all those Chinese companies and other cases such as QPP all had significant red flags out there. If you think there is a real redflag here I would be glad to hear it, but I don't see one. Its simply delays that have pressurised their working capital.

Bruce - at the heart of it Mirada is a Spanish company. It has an AIM listing due to the takeover of Yoomedia, but does also have a development centre in Exeter. CFO was appointed in March - he has recently been promoted to a board role (that was the latest RNS). No idea for the drop - as I say volume is not high so I don't think it is anything sinister.

Jolly, its not the size of his holding that is really that important for me, although he has invested around £20k in total, of course its worth considerably less at the moment. However, its his reputation and the importance of his reputation that pleases me. He has made his name by being very hot of sniffiing out overvalued or questionnable tech firms and shorting them. He gets paid £14k per year here and like you say his shareholding is not particularly large, so it is not enough to risk his repuation. I'm pretty certain that if there were any issues here he would not have been involved or would have walked. Clearly I haven't seen management accounts but I've been through the audited accounts line by line, asked questions which have been answered where needed and it all makes sense. I haven't also spoken to Televisa but there is plenty of information in the media about Televisa and so also the delays and the reason for the delays that have been given by Mirada also seem to tally. Like I say recent volume has not been exceptional so it doesn't seem to indicate any knowledge of bad news that has not been released to the market and as they have just raised money the current SP is also fairly irrelevant overall. We'll see what happens - its AIM so its clearly not for widows or orphans, but if they deliver with Televisa then the balance sheet should look alright and they have then a very decent revenue stream in licence fees that requires very little working capital.

Jolly, I've got a decent sized holding here. Have met management and shared a number of emails with CFO and CEO to get information and have scutinised accounts. Don't see anything here that could lead me to conclude there are things that are below board - I'm especially happy that Matt Earl is on board as an NED as he is a regular commentator and short seller of tech firms he think have issues and question marks. This is all about the risk of a small company dealing with a very large company - i.e. Televisa and the demand on resources and working capital that this has, however the fund-raising has been done now so they should be no immediate working capital pressure. I'm not particularly pleased that a fund raising occurred at 6p but it wasn't so large and it was not done with bucket shops, but instead with good quality existing shareholders. The recent drop is on very small volume so it doesn't look to be informed selling. Basically in 6 months the outcome of this will be known - as long as the Televisa rollout goes ahead, a huge amount of risk comes off the table and the company will have some predictable cashflow over a number of years.

Targeting a price of 95p in next 3 to 4 months based upon technicals - in a strong rising trend at the moment. There still seems to be significant demand - the notification yesterday of a new holding of 11% hasn't been followed by any notification of reduced holdings so it seems that free float is getting smaller and smaller. It would be nice to get some news that can support this rise further.

5% dilution and I estimate half of the shares issued are simply to pay interest.

I'd agree - I don't currently see this dropping down sharply. 60% of the shares are held by management and institutions and most importantly for an a AIM share it has a strong balance sheet with no need for funding in the foreseeable future. Clearly it's been far slower to ramp up operationally and sales wise but the concept seems sound - high quality, low cost marble with integrated quarrying and processing. Most of the required capital expenditure has already been made and there seems to be quite widespread interest in the stone so it still seems to me that sales will be a when, rather than an if. Having said that it is important a decent size Chinese order materializes and becomes recurring - the agreed volumes in the announced agreement would be enough to cover overheads each year. It's today being re-iterated as a buy up to 20p on shareprophets - it's a nifty fifty tip and Steve Moore who is the brains behind that is an excellent analyst and good picker.

Well this certainly has momentum now, the ask is up to 0.4 and the most recent buy has gone through at 0.38. Hopefully we can enjoy the ride a bit further up still! Still not sure what I'm going to do - I'd be tempted to exit if the bid gets anywhere near 0.5, however I do think the appointment of the CEO is significant especially as he is effectively doint the job for free. I agree with GRQ though - I don't think £1million minus the existing liabilities is enough to get a B2C business off teh ground. Would be nice if we saw some CCG renewals though.

Disappointed but it would be difficult to say it is a surprise we could all see the net liabilities in the financials so a fundraising was always on the cards. I'm actually surprised that they've managed to get it away at what is a relatively small discount. Assessing my position now - I don't really like the switch of focus to B2C. Up to now they've been handling a max of about 500 patients. To go to even 10000 for phase 1 will require a massive scale up and increase in fixed costs as coaches need to be hired so cash burn will accelerate. Additionally, while I know they say they have done their research, £20-£40 a month seems expensive - these diseases are most prevalent in the lower socio economic groups and I doubt they have £200-500 a year to do this. On top of that there are the required marketing costs. I'm not convinced £1million is enough - especially as £400k will be used covering current liabilities. The most likely result is that I will wait to see if I can find a better exit point - its possible if some of the CCGs re-sign or they win some new deals.

I assume all current oil sales are covered by the hedging in 2015 - this may not be the case so it's possible more than 30k is hedged at higher prices.

Looks to me like Caza have been generating cash by amending some of their hedges. In the Q1 results it shows Caza had 2 hedged positions for 2016 for over 90K barrels at over $80. In Q2 results those same number of barrels are hedged at just $61.25. Cana now have just 30k of production hedged in the 80s which will run out this quarter and then only a small hedge for 2015 at around $50 and the rest will be sold at market price which is currently $43. With no drilling and with hedges in place and if I am correct about the sales Caza managed to generate $1million in cash - however working capital deficit (ignoring notes payable) is $3million and production fell due to lack of drilling. With the hedging running out and no one offs from selling high price hedges available, combined with production falling, Caza will bleed cash through the rest of the year and has very little left. It has to be refinance and quickly but with oil having nose dived again and the outlook for oil oversupply looking ever more pessimistic I think the chances are very limited.

What do you mean the debt suddenly came 5 months ago? This is nonsense. The entire strategy of the company was to use a significant amount of debt to quicky drill wells and get ahead of the sharp decline curve - it looked like a strategy that could work at $100 a barrel, but sub $75 it was fairly clearly unsustainable. Caza did well to secure the debt they did but even with substantial security it was high interest. Caza was always in the segment of oil companies most exposed to prices and anyone should have seen this situation coming last October/November.

Unfortunately there is no light at the end of this tunnel. Despite what some are posting here there will be nothing out of this for shareholders - i'm sorry for the negative message but I would try and accept that and not hope for miracles. There are plenty of conspiracists on here and while i'm not saying everything about Afren may be clean, this situation is almost solely due to the company being over extended with debt when oil crashed. Bondholders will likely take losses to.

Jammers, I didn't quite read it that the higher grades were not on Fox's licence, rather that they were on Fox's licence but lower grades would have to be mined through first, where as if they access via neighbouring properties they can get to the higher grade stuff directly. I may well be wrong and thanks for highlighting your reading of it as it is a very important interpretation if true.

RTDA - current order book of E1,4million this year, not necessarily full year expectations. There is still the possibility of more sales, such as to the Chinese who still seem to be interested. I'm pretty much back to where I started at here which is frustrating but I'm in it for medium term - getting consistent sales is going to be reliant on getting consistent quality and volume of material mined and getting the factory operational. Its taking longer than expected but it still seems to be an unfortunate catalogue of issues rather than incompetence and it stills reasonable to expect this can happen by the end of 2015. In the meantime the company remains well sufficiently funded so further dilution doesn't seem to be an imminent risk. I still believe in the business model and so these temporary setbacks don't concern me much.

Both "organisations" are a complete irrelevance and nothing more than peeing in the wind. Shareholders are toast and any effort to try and recover anything could be expensive and will be futile.

I expect a good portion of bond holders will end up with losses as well - the bonds are certainly priced that way.

Oneandonly - there are hundreds of millions of pounds of debt. The equity is worthless - no one is coming in offering anything for the shares.