Member Info for spike501

Nice move - it's decent volume but ultimately it's still only just about £100k traded. Still it shows it's illiquid and any volume moves the price. If I was to speculate I'd say there are two potential drivers. 1. The market has been thin due to lack of trading statement. A good time to sneak a poor statement out would have been last thing Thursday just prior to Easter. As this hasn't happened, people are now taking a position as trading is likely to be in line and this year should be stronger still as Televisa progresses. 2. NAB in Vegas next week is the latest trade show in the sector and often deals are announced so taking a position here now but a lucrative punt. Who knows though, just nice to see it pull away from 2p. Hopefully momentum continues - it dropped due to perceptions that a placing might be needed and the further it drops the more dilutive it becomes so a vicious circle. Same is true the other way though as the market perception that a placing is needed reduces the price climbs and so any potential placing becomes less dilutive so the share increases in attractiveness.

Typo - fifth paragraph should read "they still expect to be able to run the business withOUT requiring a placing"

Allenby released a revised broker note yesterday - I'm on I-phone so can't post a link but just search Allenby Mirada in Google and it's all freely available. I also followed up with the company who kindly provided some clarifications and information. Revenue forecasts for this year have been reduced by just 600k so second half revenue should still be around £4million, so substantially ahead of first half and full year revenues growing further on last year. Costs are forecast to go up slightly in second half as they still have significant demand from Televisa for professional services but this is more resource intensive and lower margin. So overall, slightly lower revenue and a less favourable mix between licences and professional services which adversely affects profitability. Due to this mix net debt is forecast to increase a little further. The company did however confirm that the despite the trading statement, the guidance provided in the interim results for financial sustainability remains. Based on the revised projections and availability of financing facilities they still expect to be able to run the business with requiring a placing. As per the results any new contract win would be evaluated case by case to see if more funds would be needed. My hope is that the latest forecasts are highly conservative on both the revenues and costs sides so the outlook could improve. Next year revenues jump significantly as Televisa roll out ramps up. There is also a further increase in costs forecast but this is on the assumption that a new contract is won and the set up worked upon (but no licence fees in that year) so an element of cost is variable. As the updates have stated they are highly positive on the pipeline hence the forecasts for next year assuming a contract win. Debt facilities remain available and together with cash the headroom remains there even with the updated trading outlook. The balance sheet is certainly going to be stretched but Televisa licence revenues will continue to flow albeit lower than planned in the short term but they will then ramp up next year to provide a significant and reliable source of cash flow. Still not for widows and orphans but the trading update was a short term setback but shouldn't cause significant issues and medium/long term potential remains.

The major risk here is the reliance on debt and its size in relation to the market cap. The company does seem to have good access to good quality banking facilities, however net debt at mid year stands at £4.1million which is broadly the same as the market cap. If any lenders start to restrict or worse require reductions in the short term facilities, if the company needs to raise even just £1milllion then taking into account a placing discount that is an 30%+ shares into the market and further cash would obviously dilute further. I'm maintaining my investment here and taking the risk - if the lenders remain supportive over the next few months until the contract really ramps up then the balance sheet will improve and you'll find a virtuous circle as the risk of placing recedes, the market cap increases, any potential placing becomes less dilutive and so it strengthens further - currently the SP is in a vicious circle going the other way. There seems also to be an increasing chance of securing another significant contract. But it is a risk - they are reliant on a single client so have limited control and visibility on revenues, so any further slippage or restrictions on lending facilities and significant dilution will occur. I remain convinced that the business is going to have a bright future - I don't think anyone should underestimate the significance of the contract and the importance of the software to Televisa - a true media giant - in its home market and I don't believe that will be a one off. However, I now hope, rather than necessarily expect, that the benefits of the future success of the business will go to existing shareholders.

Gordon - I doubt it with Rockhopper. Debt has been the killer here, where as the RKH BOD have always been fiscally very responsible so the company is well funded,can sustain itself for the foreseeable future and as it had been doing making some opportunistic purchases of production and potential outside of the Falklands. I suspect Rockhopper will prove to be a good investment in the long run at current price - there are of course risks in the junior E&P space but they seem very low.

Jolly, thanks for the response - ignoring all movements of capitalizing expenses, depreciation and amortization etc etc, I believe the revenue for the company in H1 will have been about £2.5million and cash cost of running the business about £3.5million so a deficit of around £1million. Based on the information today, I believe all that deficit has been closed by a reduction in receivables. Clearly the balance sheet is still weak but I believe if there had been a need for a placing it would have occurred already. Licence fee revenue should now be flowing in regularly on a monthly basis so while I believe net debt will remain higher than is ideal, it will now have peaked and the second half of the year should see a surplus of revenue to expenses of around £1million which should also convert equally on a cash basis. I was at the AGM a couple of weeks ago, simply haven't had chance to post a review yet, however the company seemed confident that this year would reach financial sustainability with the more reliable and frequent licence fee revenue and today confirmed that commercially things are on track. 2018 will then benefit further from the full 12 months of licence fees. I hope yesterdays 3.25p was the bottom

Jolly - my inference from the results today is that net debt has probably improved slightly (in euros, it may be different in pounds due to FX), however overall net current assets has probably weakened a bit further as receivables have converted to cash. I'm expecting first half to be loss making as the roll out and licence revenue only commenced half way through the period, but then second half to be stronger (as it has been in recent years) - broker forecast is for revenue of about £7.4million and fcf to be around zero for full year and then 2018 strengthens further from having a full year of licence fee revenue. I think the good news today is that the company has demonstrated it has plenty of available liquidity and that commercially the roll out is going as expected. If a placing was needed it would have happened already - the second half of the year, as long as performance continues as expected, will see positive FCF and so net debt and net current assets should improve.

The share price has dropped back to where it was, I think primarily due to the continued high net debt position, somewhat higher than I anticipated. I did think these results might not be enough to sooth the market that funding will be required and it will take until the interims. Overall.. - The company still has sufficient working capital facilities - £0.9million of short term lines and £2.9million of invoice discounting facilities, added to £0.7million of cash. - Trade and receivables is £3.8milllion but the commentary says that receivables fell to £1.4million. The balance of £2.4million is accrued income. As I understand it, a significant portion of this should have converted to receivables and subsequently have been invoiced on deployment, giving a significant boost to working capital. - Overall cash costs to the business for the year were around £7million - around £600k was interest charges and the costs of share issuance. If the more stable revenue from the new contract can be realized and they can start to move away from using short term, more expensive debt and invoicing discounting there is considerable savings to be made there. This year is the critical year - the company needs to demonstrate its investments can generate cashflow and the balance sheet can improve. I believe it should do and the interim results should give a good indication of that.

The share price has dropped back to where it was, I think primarily due to the continued high net debt position, somewhat higher than I anticipated. I did think these results might not be enough to sooth the market that funding will be required and it will take until the interims. Overall.. - The company still has sufficient working capital facilities - £0.9million of short term lines and £2.9million of invoice discounting facilities, added to £0.7million of cash. - Trade and receivables is £3.8milllion but the commentary says that receivables fell to £1.4million. The balance of £2.4million is accrued income. As I understand it, a significant portion of this should have converted to receivables and subsequently have been invoiced on deployment, giving a significant boost to working capital. - Overall cash costs to the business for the year were around £7million - around £600k was interest charges and the costs of share issuance. If the more stable revenue from the new contract can be realized and they can start to move away from using short term, more expensive debt and invoicing discounting there is considerable savings to be made there. This year is the critical year - the company needs to demonstrate its investments can generate cashflow and the balance sheet can improve. I believe it should do and the interim results should give a good indication of that.

A nice run up to the results with the bid price now at 5p. I expect the results to be good and the commentary to be especially upbeat. - Revenues of around £6million, meaning revenue for the second half was £3.8million, boosted by the roll out of the OTT solution in February. - I'm not going to speculate on EBITDA and PBT as its difficult to know what happens with amortization, however the £3.8million revenue in second half should have been higher than the cash cost of running the business. - We know cash was approximately £600k. Overall net current assets should be around £600k with long term debt at around £1.5million. - Overall net debt is likely to still be quite high - £2.5-3million, but this should no start to unwind as receivables and accrued income start to convert into cash. Hopefully there will be some initial indications on response to the roll out, also I expect guidance that free cash flow should be generated in 2017. I think there is still a concern held by the market that more equity is needed and I hope this is somewhat allayed by these results, although it may need the interims from this year which should be very strong. Overall I'm optimistic - the early release of results, coupled with the accompanying analyst presentation and the fact they have a reminder about the results on Twitter suggests they are pretty confident, but who knows how the market will react. I agree with rocker that this is worth 12p, although I suspect it will need a full year of free cashflow before the market believes it. Of course another deal would also be very helpful.

I sold out this morning at 20p and won't be touching this again. The only thing I would say is that Pebble Beach Systems is probably worth considerably more as a stand alone business than the current market cap - there could be value here in breaking up the company and selling the individual pieces.

Well that was a disaster

Rollout began yesterday with a major advertising campaign from Izzi as they unify the various cable brands under Izzi and offer a complete integrated TV package with both traditional channels and the OTT products, all enabled by Mirada's platform. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ELJLYwrQtc https://www.izzi.mx/izzitv

JS, agree. - free cash flow and no need for financing needs to be demonstrated. I'm hoping full year results should demonstrate the balance sheet is adequate and funding is not needed imminently, followed by updates on Izzi rollouts demonstrating ongoing cash flow is coming. I've always been very confident here and think this was marked down too much and now the risk has almost gone as roll out is starting - 6-7 million boxes to replace plus a really strong Mexico pay tv market. I retain my confidence - Izzi is a massive game changer.

This is defining news - it should now provide a base for the company to be cashflow positive and profitable for the next 3 years as the subscriber fees will provide a substantial and reliable revenue stream. It should provide the company much more flexibility. Its also a massive reference point as well. Next key news will be results for FY16 which should indicate that the balance sheet remains strong enough to ensure a placing is not needed to shore it up, which I think could still be possible - however as I understand it, with the deployment revenue, placing last year, credit facilities available and now the ongoing cashflow it should now be fine.

How have this BOD been inept?

Then vote against it at a GM and if enough people support you NEW can go back to being a two bit O&G explorer with some rubbish licences and not enough cash to drill a sandpit. Its been very clear they have been looking for other opportunities.

Cashking - give it a rest. Its an almost completely new board, who have cleaned up most of the previous issues and made a working capital loan which I'm certain full due diligence will have been done on, and if its not repaid they have full security so would get control of the company they want to acquire anyway.

"Because I've still got a stake here, and have done for a good while." Which makes you the nugget for not realizing it was inevitable it would be reversed into another company not in the O&G space. This is exactly the sort of move I was expecting and why I was holding. Sure it remains a punt but Reynolds has proved himself adept at this in the past.

Did anyone believe that once Adam Reynolds got involved the company would remain an Oil and Gas Exploration company? I certainly didn't and I'm fairly pleased because you can't get very far in exploration with only a couple of million on the balance sheet. I'd never have held if I thought that was the case. This is what Adam Reynolds does - takes listed shell companies and reverses into promising growing companies to provide them with funding for expansion and access to capital markets to help their expansion. He has been very successful at this to date, so personally I trust his judgment now and expect this to be a highly promising business and have the potential to be value enhancing.