Member Info for spike501

"The well testing will be fully done by this or next week you take your calculations by the companies rns not some rag newspaper."

The company's RNS stated that it takes 30 days to reach TD and then preliminary results released in early feb - that'll just be info available from the logs, extent of oil saturation, gross and net pay.

If they then go onto well testing that will take at least another 2-3 weeks.

"Its an appraisal well , drilling it in the wrong place would be embarrassing...."

Its still stepping out from the original well to another side of a fault, so its not guaranteed the zone will be oil saturated. Its not a straightforward appraisal that is targeting a zone that is oil saturated but to test the thickness and characteristics.

Its just those who took positions to try and catch any pre-result hype, getting out now without taking the risk on the well.
This was always going to happen.

The likelihood is, that if you remain in now, you're in it for the well result.

"possibly canny pi's who think there'll be a counter offer"

More likely daft PIs and people closing short positions.

Jace - they are not a bit like Netflix. Netflix is a consumer business all about getting content to consumers. But yes Mirada could and do power content distributors. I've been invested here for 6 years, have a substantial holding and have attended the last few AGMs - I'm well aware of what the company does and in what context it has worked with the companies on its website. They are currently active with Televisa (Izzi telecom) in Mexico, ATNi in the Carribean and Digitial TV in Bolivia.

They aren’t aiming to be a Netflix - they are a business to business software company, providing content management solutions. I’m a long term holder and all for talking this up, but let’s not start throwing fantasy around like Netflix

“Is a bit like Netflix for Asia and South America” It isn’t like Netflix - Netflix carry and now produce their own content and sell directly to the consumer. Mirada provide software to allow direct to consumer businesses to efficiently provide content to the consumer.

NAB show in Las Vegas starts on Monday - would be a good day to announce the rollout of the ATNi programme and also any new deals!

I'm not so concerned about the pace of the new deals - they are dealing with large companies on multi million dollar, multi year investments and they take time - 6 to 12 months at least. I think a good target for new deals, is two tier 2 customers a year, plus one tier one customer every 3 to 5 years. Last year they signed two tier 2 customers so I was pretty happy with that, its just the fact they are working capital intensive pre-roll out that has been the problem. I do however wonder if the they have been hampered in some deals by weak financials - if customers want to make multi year commitments they have to be sure their supplier is going to be there and Mirada has a very weak balance sheet - I think the �3million facility just signed is very important but they still need their other credit facilities to remain supportive. Given the shape of the financials I think the financings were as good as it gets and the company is lucky it has supportive shareholders. There is some dilution coming, but I'm hoping the combination of the most recent drawdown, plus the hopeful imminent role out of ATNi and an upstep in Televisa rollout means the second tranche of the convertible is not drawn down but we'll see.

Tigerwelsh - apologies for the delay in responding, its been some time since I've been on LSE. I was bullish and have so far certainly got this wrong. There are two main reasons for this. 1. Televisa - this was a known risk and one I have highlighted before - significant exposure to one large client. 2017 was a killer - the expectation was that around 100k licenses per month would have been rolled out, when in reality it looks to have been only about 20k-30k per month. That has created a hole of around almost $4million in 2017 at a time the company needed it the most. The view from the company is that this only a temporary issue and doesn't impact the overall impact of the contract and was due to the economic situation in Mexico - this is credible as after the election of Trump the peso depreciated up to 25% - Televisa substantially cut capex expenditure. The peso is now back at 18.5 so the expectations that roll out accelerates to the expected level this year is reasonable. Televisa continue to spend a substantial amount in professional services with Mirada so the relationship appears to be good, so there is still probably $20-30million value in this contract. 2. I didn't anticipate that the new contract wins would both be a model where there is limited professional services up front. I'm pretty sure both these are good contracts, however they have stretched working capital further as there is limited billing pre-roll out, but once roll out has occurred the revenue stream is secure. Putting both those things together and it has created a huge working capital requirement hence debt has snowballed - they have been fortunate to have supportive credit providers and shareholders who have provided additional capital. I was especially pleased with the most recent announcement of the 12 month �3million facility as though it is expensive, it is substantial and it is not dilutive as its not convertible. The flipside of the huge working capital drain outlined above, is that when it turns it creates substantial cash inflow. Televisa remains a question as to speed of rollout, but the peso is now relatively stable and Mexico is doing well again - although NAFTA talks still hang over it. At the AGM and in the recent RNS, the company were optimistic based upon discussions about capex planning with Televisa and also the most recent announcement indicated that Televisa will shortly start rolling the solution out to their tier 2 customers. For ATNi, rollout was planned before this year end - which is next week, the latest RNS said it remains within management expectation, so its possible an announcement of rollout comes next week, but if not it should be coming shortly. For Bolivia no timeline was indicated but I'd assume it is in weeks not months. So it could turn pretty quickly although there are around 80million shares to be converted at 1.1p from the convertible which could hold it back. Debt remains high so there is no room for furthe

Jolly - I think some sort of facility like this might be likely and while they are not great, in this case it might not be the worst option. I think as soon as the financing is raised, there is going to be some sort of relief rally in the market that it is place - just as long as that financing is not the entire amount upfront by issuing hundreds of millions of new shares at a discount to todays price - I think that is currently the markets fear. A facility where they can draw down only the amount when needed, so there is no large upfront dilution would not be the worst option. AIM shares where financing is obviously required, always become vicious circles - financing is needed so the SP drops, which makes financing more dilutive which pushes the prices down further and so on. It does also work the other way though and if the financing looks like it will be less dilutive overall than the market fears, then the SP climbs and so it is even less dilutive and so on. What would be best - short of conventional financing - will be if they get a financing facility that gives the option to repay either in cash or by converting at some point in the future. It seems that only short term financing is needed to see through to the launch of ATNi and hopefully the ongoing progress of Televisa. One interesting thing to note is that the nominal value of the share is 1p, which is where the current market price is. They cannot issue shares below nominal value so would have to call a general meeting and conduct a share split - that nothing has been aligned with the AGM that has now been called is a positive sign. A slight fly in the ointment currently, is that the peso, having climbed significantly and returned to where it was pre-Trump, is currently weakening again as the NAFTA talks are making people nervous. It is still nowhere near the depths it reach (currenty 18.7 per USD, having dipped to 22 per USD after Trump), but it is increasing uncertainty in Mexico again. I'll be at the AGM on 30th.

Last year on revenue of around �6.5million, the company went through around an additional �2.0million in working capital, financed partly by additional debt and partly by pulling forward cash for services (Televisa seem to have paid upfront for some services to be provided in this financial year). Revenue might be higher this year based upon any set up fees from the new contracts and hopefully an acceleration of Televisa rollout, however it is likely to be back loaded to the end of the year so I expect the company needs around �1.5-2million in additional financing to see it through to the deployment of ATNi and then hopefully the business becomes cash generative. The CEO has stated debt is the preferred option and given negotiations are at advanced stages it does lead me to think debt will form the bulk of it, however I certainly wouldn't rule out an equity component. I would be surprised if it can all be financed through traditional unsecured debt, however a convertible option or even a SEDA type facility could well work quite well at this stage, as effectively the SP is priced almost for the company to fail and will move quickly if it moves to be cash generative this will move very quickly in which case any financing which converts in future will not be so dilutive. At the moment I think the market is nervous that 150million+ shares will enter the market to raise the required financing. If the financing is secured without that happening I expect 1p will be the bottom and this will start to move up.

The company have been fairly open about the Televisa contract - it was always $3-5 per box (dependent on spec of the box) as a one off fee and the number of subscribers Televisa have is public, although the boxes per subscribers isn't. Initially Mirada were talking about it being a $15million contract, but as Televisa acquired further networks this amount was increased. What the company don't know with Televisa, is how quickly it will be rolled across the existing base and to what extent - will eventually all boxes be on Iris, or will 10%+ remain on legacy. Currently roll out is slower than anticipated - for last year the broker was forecasting a roll out of 100k boxes per month, where as in reality due to uncertainty in Mexico and Televisa taking a cautious approach it has been around 30k. I expect there is a lot more sensitivity around the new contracts, as it is recurring rather than one off and there are in negotiations with several different companies. I expect the contracts are also each fairly bespoke as well, depending on the amount of set up costs, level of support, scale etc etc.

Camkite, Any significant invoices for these new contracts are unlikely to start flowing for several months as the set up needs to be done and the ongoing costs for running the business - around �500-600k per month still needs to be financed. The company has both invoice discounting facilties - but there will be limited invoices - and unsecured bank lines which appear to be more or less at capacity. Funding is mission critical - the company have been very open about that due to the work needed before the new contacts result in material revenues. My hope is that the new contracts allow access to more unsecured funding, but I expect at best we are looking at convertible loans or equity drawdown facilities, although there could well be a straight placing required as well. Its difficult to say what the order book is - the Televisa contract is structured as fees per box and Televisa still have around 7million legacy boxes in the market, so in theory that is around $28million of revenues, but what portion of that will be realised and over what timeframe is difficult to say. Based upon the limited information released it does seem the new contracts are also on fee per device basis, however rather than a one off, it is a recurring fee and there seem to be minimum thresholds in place so revenue is guaranteed - again as they rely on the partner being successful in selling the solution it is difficult to put figures on order books. Clearly though visibility around future revenues is going to increase. I've been invested for some time, have been at the last two AGMs and intend to be there this year. I hope this is a turning point and it is very positive as clearly the company and solution have wider market recognition, but the current finances remain stretched and until the funding is sorted and there is regular cash generation, its likely the SP will remain somewhat depressed.

Camkite, To put it directly, without wishing to be rude, you don't really know what you are talking about. Invoice discounting facilities are for invoices and not order books - an invoice is only issued when a service or good has been delivered and accepted by the buyer. For buyers of the high quality that Mirada deals with, the discount will likely be only around 1%, although probably only 90% of the invoice is advanced to the company. You can see the open invoices Mirada has by looking at receivables in the annual report, unless any of the financing is done off balance sheet which I don't think it is. The company have twice stated in recent weeks they need finance. The contract wins are great news, but they are working capital intensive and the company needs to finance the upfront work before revenues arrive and the company have indicated they will require new sources which should be announced shortly - hopefully none of it is equity but I think this will be tough, as does the market which is why this remains below 2p

It does state the contract is 'significant'. I would assume the pricing is highly sensitive which is why nothing further is disclosed.

Checking the twitter feed I see they are recruiting for 3 more staff in Exeter including a project manager and another project manager in Madrid - neither of these PM roles are on their main website which i find intriguing - of course I could be over thinking. Whether they are new roles or back fills, it certainly doesn't indicate a company under immediate financial stress.

The San Luis rollout is helpful but not so major - overall subscriber numbers for Izzi over the last year have been a little bit poor, they shrank towards the end of last year and in Q1 this year. In Q2 they returned to growth, however it was only an additional 29000 household which was less than 3% growth on an annualized basis. Growth of the overall subscribers is not going to be the biggest driver of the Izzi contract, it will be the replacement of the already installed 8 million odd boxes on already installed subscribers and it is this rate that is key from any trading update - based on my rough calculations I believe that once this exceeds around 80k per month, then assuming ongoing professional services work at prior levels the business will move to be cashflow positive. The company has on numerous occasions said it expects to rollout across Izzi's base in 3-5 years, so even allowing for only 6 million (75%) of boxes being replaced that suggests a rate of 100-170k boxes per month to reach those targets. While there was a decent amount of cash in hand at half year - which is now way back in September - the balance sheet was weak and I don't believe the company had enough resources to continue being cashflow negative from September last year all the way through to now, almost 10 months later, so I'm hoping that at some point in the last few months the monthly number of boxes being rolled out has exceeded the number needed to become cashflow positive - however this is slightly complicated by professional services which can have large, lumpy invoices. The interview was very confident and was just before the close of last years accounts, which makes me believe prior guidance must still stand - you cannot do a video presentation confirming things you've previously told the market, many months later when you have additional knowledge that they may not be true. However, the lack of trading update is for me something of a warning indicator, although given they are in negotiations for new contracts, it could be that they are holding back to a point they can give a concrete update - which would effectively be a new contract signed.

It's been disclosed that its a large individual investor before - there could of course be a few others but one holder has well in excess of 20%.

Bruce about 30% of the shares are held by a single investor, through Chase Nominees so actual free float is a lot lower than official free float. This has been illiquid for some time - the drop to a couple of pence happened on limited volume Anand it didn't take much yesterday to push up again.