Member Info for spike501

Sirius market cap is a third of UJO, not the other way around.

UJO should be 5p? I.e. valued at £600million? Why?

"I think alot of new PI are forgetting WN B was to prove up a discovery, the gas is 100% and there is a 65m pay zone of oil/condensate with a saturated core recovered from the lower target with estimates mid case of 79 million barrels."

This isn't correct - the 65m liquids was not found in the lower target, it was found (completely unexpectedly) in the upper target below the gas. Oil saturated cores were recovered from the lower target, reading between the lines the resevoir was not developed at this location (which also seems to be as expected)

I'm not sure what relevance the share price of Sirius has? Market cap is about a third of UJO.

"However Sirius are not producing and look @ the sp"

Sirius Petroleum? Why would you look at their SP?

I see no incentive for sale for the partners prior to West Newton 2 which will further deliniate the Kirkham Abbey and will crucially test whether the oil shows found in the Cadeby at this location translate into a commercial resevoir at the location of WN-2.

If West Newton does then become an asset for sale, sell that on its own, not the entire licence which has prospectivity for years worth of further exploration.

For the field to be worth £1bn that is a 4 times increase on the pre-drill NPV10, which with the liquids is an not impossible. Given UJO have 16.65% of this then that is worth £166million to UJO or 1.4p a share - but it would be discounted prior to development and production.

Invested and did very well in Amer a few years ago - have been watching since and was tempted to take a position when it hit 12p but sentiment was so low and was looking to catch when that turned around.

In at 18p, think 27p so 50% return in a matter of weeks is highly possible - that gives a $400million valuation which given $50million in cash, pipeline which can also be conservatively valued at $50 million, that leaves $300million which breaks down to $12 per barrel for producing 2P which isn’t particularly expensive when considering there is a lot of low hanging fruit for increasing and a large amount of carry for the next years.

Nightingale - while I agree this is a relatively relaxing share to be in and the price looks well underpinned, to have all your eggs in an AIM oil and gas play is hugely risky - the number of times I’ve seen golden tickets and sure things posted on bulletin board followed by a wipe out is too many - lives are ruined.

There is no guarantee of anything here and plenty of external and operational risks that could hamper and set this back - if it was risk free it wouldn’t be sat here at sun 0.3p.

Obviously your call but please be careful and think twice - either way good luck and I hope it does pay off for you.

Ideally now the price is climbing above the price Tinajero has recently received all the equity, he might be able to dispose of some blocks to other institutions.

While he is holding so much of the company, its unlikely to be investable for many iis

"Just West Newton - 1p per share, including a 0.75p per share dividend payment. Soon after EWT results released."

Thanks for the civil response - I hope you are correct, I suspect you won't be, but lets see.

Highly unlikely but I wouldn’t rule out an offer for West Newton in weeks - go on then put a figure on what that offer in weeks will be - ballpark wise. If it comes mine ballpark is 0.35-0.4 per share for UJO for West Newton only, not the entire Licence area

We’ll know soon enough who is right.

Selfish Nimby - you must be looking at the old note. The new note

http://unionjackoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/SP-Flash-note.pdf

West Newton is split out between appraisal and exploration and then there is further exploration for PEDL183 - West Newton appraisal is unrisked 0.64p and risked 0.21p

PEDL183 exploration total is unrisked 1.02p and risked of 0.06p

"There has been extensive 2D seismic over the Spring Hill and Ellerby project areas. This isn't years and years. This is weeks."

Yes my mistake there has been some 2D which is about as basic as it gets. They are already planning 3D, then they have to analyse, plan, get permission for an exploration, drill, analyse plan, drill appraisal - how is that weeks? That is years and years of work - they won't sink another well in PEDL183 outside of West Newton, before the end of 2020.

"Once you start telling lies, you expose your intention to deceive shareholders into selling. **** poor really."

Yes, I made a mistake about the 2D seismics - you are claiming that within weeks exploration of PEDL183 will be known - who is lying?

I don't advise anyone to sell, but can't stand this mindless ramping. 1p is a long shot but not impossible, but substantially more in the next weeks or months is just fantasy

"Spike, according to SP Angel the West Newton licence unrisked valuation per share is 1.65p."

And the risked value - I see about 0.1 for PEDL183 exploration? There haven't even be any seismics over the rest of the licence let alone a drilling plan - this is years and years of exploration development and until there are actual discoveries and appraisals, its not going to get valued at much. Union Jack themselves are evidence of this as they got their 16% for about £2million when all the information was already known, other than the confirmation of West Newton A-2

Oddbods - Corrib is a producing field. All the necessary upfront capital investment has been done and the buyers get the share of all the infrastucture and it is immediately throwing off large amounts of cashflow. Onshore is more attractive pre-development as it is easier to develop, but offshore once producing and tied back is more attractive as the production can be much more optimised as it doesn't come with some of the other hurdles onshore production has. You cannot develop a massive hub production like Corrib onshore in the UK - it has to be a number of smaller sites.

Selfish McNimby
"0.2p per share! lol"

Its from your figures - how much do you think pre development BoE is worth?

Selfish McNimby

"I think £75m is way undervalued. 16% of 200bcf close to infrastructure! You are the one with completely unrealistic views spike."

200bcf is 35million BOE - 16% is 5.6million BoE. An excellent valuation per BoE would be $6 at this non-producing stage - thats then $33.6million - about £25million = 0.2p per share.

Straighttalker

If you think Wressle is worth a lot you should be piling into Egdon. Wressle will be some nice, very welcome cashflow, but even the unrisked valuation for Wressle in the latest Broker note was just 0.11p per share.

"The past few months I have been like a kid at Xmas, going to bed early because I couldn't wait for the morning to arrive and I bet I am not the only one."

Thats because you have got completely unrealistic views on valuation and will inevitably be disappointed , although I still believe you'll make good money.

"By my reckoning, that would equate to a value of 5.5 pence p/s just for West Newton (if we hit top end in both scenarios)??? That's if I have calculated it correctly anyway (calculations purely for academic purposes obviously)"

NPV10 pre drilling was approx $300million - even if its doubled which is conceivable, then its now $600million. UJO have 16.5%, so $99million, which is approx 0.6p per share.

No one would pay NPV10 at current stage of development - $6 per BOE would be a great price which at the upper end gives a price of $60million for the gas, or approx 0.5p per share.

Of course they could also be selling down as they are expecting more shares in UJO from an all share offer for Humber and want to ensure any offer doesn't trigger the 30% threshold which can complicate things.

"What I saw was the whole of the RNS was not posted by you , it does say at the endThe primary Basal Westphalian sandstone, was likely absent at the Biscathorpe-2 location and remains untested by the well. "

That was known already, however what has been released today gives further indications that the primary target does have a working hydrocarbon system and so the prospective at a better location that can be accessed from BIsc-2 by sidetrack is high. In addition they have identified another oil column.

This is great news.

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