Member Info for spike501

The Proactive one? -Yeah, was good, clearly there have already been some sort of discussions between advisors and it will have to accelerate now with Serenity and Tain highly likely being connected.

I still think they will sit and watch the next well - yes they might have to pay a bit more, but an asset that can provide near term cashflow will be most interesting to them.

Highly unlikely, these guys aren't set up on corporate governance perspective to dabble in small share purchase. A farm in is much more attractive for all parties, I3E can basically get carry for development and Serenity appraisal and RRE can get a decent exposure to a very large multi-field development.

Excellent posts as ever BBN but I’m still not as confident as you that the RBL is in the bag even if the next still is successful. Discussions are ongoing is merely all they have stated.

The revelation that a compliance requirement of the junior was that the senior funding is in place by end of December is significant.

Still substantial risk here in my view but from my peworth it as significant upside opportunity

Great result this morning, but not too surprised about where the share price has settled. Serenity is still not a development ready prospect, will likely require additional appraisal wells and therefore additional funding and so standalone is heavily discounted at this stage.

Liberator development is the key as that is the point the company really transforms - success on the next well and the confirmation of funding and development with near term cashflows is what will unleash the share price here and likely quite considerably as it will suddenly provide confidence on the future development of Serenity and so the discount will start to unwind.

"...a guess at the SP in 2027?."

Zero

"SP is too low now. Indeed if cash position if being preserved"

The company have already told you cash runs out at end of March 2020 - there is no real cash value to the business.

AlanG - my post was ambiguous, there was no intent to suggest you had anything to do with the shareholder action groups at Afren, or Xcite, my reference to those companies, was that the biggest rampers on those boards in the dying days of the company were the ones setting up shareholder action groups when the inevitable death of the companies happened and the shares became worthless.

As to your claim you made £3.5million on Dana Petroleum. When Dana Petroleum sold, some idiot jouranlists did some calculations based upon the initial share issuance and the sale price and calculated a return of 1800 times - there was even reference to a letter from a dublin granny who supposedley invested £400 in 1995 which was then worth £720000 at the sale. It was all rubbish as they forget to calculate placings and a 15-1 share consolidation, the real return from buying in 1995 to selling in 2010 with the takeover was about 12 times.

So to make £3.5million you either invested almost £200k in an O&G start up in 1995 which is pretty implausible, or you invested a substantial amount more in the intervening, which is then frankly a lucky punt which is unlikely to be repeated and as an investment strategy will more likely leave you at zero over the longer term, or frankly you are lying.

I feel that if this, as seems increasingly likely, goes completely pear shaped, AlanG will be trying to organize the Sirius shareholders action group as has been seen on the likes of Afren and Xcite Energy in the past.

So? Do you think it will make the blindest bit of difference.

You'd be better off setting up a fundme page and gathering donations.

Why should the Government bail out shareholders who took a high risk punt?

UJO has production from two sites, both with 20% interest. Total production costs for first half of 2019 was about 110k, so around £600 per day for both sites, £300 per day net to UJO for each site. So each site in total costs about £1500 per day to run and produce oil.

Equity raises do occasionally get done at a premium if someone wants a large slice that they couldn’t get in the open market.

Forget it here though - any equity raise will have a large discount.

"Thus, using your own figures, probably no need to raise until after WN2. Particularly so if well cost only £3m per well. But might raise just before TD on WN2 to take advantage of a good share price - but likely to be a small raise?"

You've missed out the development of Wressle plus any other funds paying for Biscarthorpe analysis etc. Also its likely that although they had £2.8million in cash, they also had some bills to pay.

Its possible that they could just have enough to do all that and drill WN2, but they'd be running on fumes at the end of which is simply not a prudent position to be in.

A good CPR and successful EWT and the SP is much higher so get a bit in the bank for the next developments.

The CPR is basically a validation of inputs that come from the operator - Reabold will obviously know all those inputs, so even without the CPR they will pretty much know what it looks like. The only risk remaining is that Competent person doesn't agree with what has been submitted or their validation models come up substantially different.

Reabold certainly cannot share a CPR with potential investors if it hasn't been released to the market - that would be illegal. More likely they want to keep institutions onside so will give them the opportunity to participate before the CPR is released with the expectation the new investors get a quick gain.

"IMO UJO will only be paying 16.65% of any new drilling given they have that % of the license, they had £2.8m cash and no debt, so for every million spent on drilling their costs are 166.5k, tell me why they would need to fund raise."

A well costs around £5million to drill and then another £2million to complete and test, so up to £1.5million to UJO. Then there are admin costs, licence costs, costs for Wressle etc.

So I'd agree that before WN2 they will probably need to place. However, I also agree with the view that is highly unlikely they'd place before WN A-2 is tested and CPR is in place, so I think any near term placing is unlikely.

"The only thing I would question is why UJO can't increase their stake."

Don't forget they'd be in a bidding war then with Reabold! Any increased stake also increases the upfront capex as well.

"1. If the money is to buy out Rathlin, why would Rathlin let the licence go so cheaply."

Based on the SP article, Reabold are only increasing stake in Rathlin rather than buying them out. Rathlin get hard cash now with presumably significant upside on what they have so far invested so take some stake off the table and as a non-listed company they have to find less capital in future for development while still keeping some share in the additional upside.

"2. What are Reabold going to do if they get the licence: hire Rathlin to be the operator?"

Again it seems to be only an increased stake in Rathlin, not the buy out of Rathlin - this makes sense as Reabold are an investment company, not an operating company so they don't need to go through change of purpose, they don't need to jump through the hoops to register themselves as an operator. Rathlin stays as the operator.

"3. Why don't UJO raise money to get a bigger slice?"

Not really sure they need at this stage - they have a nice balanced portfolio of decent sized stakes in good assets at various stages of appraisal and development. I don't really want the dilution now.

"1. If the money is to buy out Rathlin, why would Rathlin let the licence go so cheaply."

Based on the SP article, Reabold are only increasing stake in Rathlin rather than buying them out. Rathlin get hard cash now with presumably significant upside on what they have so far invested so take some stake off the table and as a non-listed company they have to find less capital in future for development while still keeping some share in the additional upside.

"2. What are Reabold going to do if they get the licence: hire Rathlin to be the operator?"

Again it seems to be only an increased stake in Rathlin, not the buy out of Rathlin - this makes sense as Reabold are an investment company, not an operating company so they don't need to go through change of purpose, they don't need to jump through the hoops to register themselves as an operator. Rathlin stays as the operator.

"3. Why don't UJO raise money to get a bigger slice?"

Not really sure they need at this stage - they have a nice balanced portfolio of decent sized stakes in good assets at various stages of appraisal and development. I don't really want the dilution now.

Yeah it does, but you seem very angry at others that your high risk gamble with your pension pot didn't come off.

Government support to develop the mine for resource and regional economic develop is all well and good, Government support to bailout shareholders who took a punt isn't.