Member Info for spike501

I imagine they'll be glad to get out at 5.5p, given there was a real chance of massive dilution or worse.

"If AAL can stump up $500-600M, you can be sure Norges and Qataris could do likewise"

Norges and Qataris are not mine operators, they don't want to buy and develop a mine - this guys are not like PIs that continually throw good money after bad.

Dontgiveup - don't give up your day job, unless you're an accountant in which case give up your day job

Yellow - stick to premium bonds. If you can't read a simple RNS I don't think stocks are for you.

AAL are buying all the shares - SXX will be part of AAL. If you want exposure to the mine after the sale buy AAL shares.

No

"Looks like AA are not buying Sirius outright reading the between the lines"

What do you think the below means???

“Anglo American confirms that it is in advanced discussions with Sirius in relation to a possible offer at a value of 5.5 pence per Sirius share, in cash (the "Proposal"). The Proposal would value the entire issued share capital of Sirius at approximately £386 million”

It was a good placing, badly conducted.

"Surely the company can't estimate 600mil barrels and get an RNS past the nomad without a degree of confidence?"

Just do a smidgen of basic homework

"Ok so 600million barrels are the estimates. At 70 dollars a barrel that is 42 billion or 32.5 billion pounds.

Talk me through in a few sentences the recovery rates and costs that get this down to £13million please. Or just my bad maths."

Two thirds of that has not even been discovered yet and the other third is based on one well - there is still another drilling programme needed costing many times the current market cap and to add to that the company has debts that will trigger covenants if an the RBL is not in place, something looking highly unlikely given both drills on this campaign that were planned to secure the RBL failed.

"So, mkt cap around £13 million,
Interim report said they had £33 million in cash...

Seems like a bargain at current price?"

They've spent the cash drilling 3 wells and now have net debt?

All a bit of a shambles and to place at less than the previous placing after having confirmed a major result that was better than anticipated doesn’t cover the board in any glory - there is no dressing this up as a success.

However it’s done now, the company really is well funded for substantial value add so it looks strong from here

"So with no change or news after market close to open, MMs managed to manipulate the SP by -30%! If anyone bought just before close yesterday they would instantly be over 25% down...this is robbery and greed!"

It fell because after the initial rush to buy for those thinking the news was good, the market realised actually the news was bad and so it fell back at the end of yesterday and fell again today.

Its where it is because this well result looks to be poor and so the prospects here are not good.

"Data will answer definitively when it is ready to be shared. In the mean time, negative embellishment can be easily interpreted for what it is by those with an agenda"

I've not negatively embellishing - I'm am providing factual excerpts from the RNS. They have 20ft (not metres) above the OWC, which is below what they modelled pre drill.

"They have said they have found 20m (measured depth) with oil shows, they have not said anywhere how much of the 220 feet of the Captain Sands they are claiming above OWC."

Huh? what do you think the below says from the RNS?

Initial evaluation of the Measurement While Drilling logs indicate that, at this location, circa 20 ft MD of the Captain sand with oil indications has been found above the expected oil water contact (OWC) of 5270 ft total vertical depth subsea (TVDSS)

"Again - nowhere have the company claimed an 80 foot oil column was expected"

Ophidian - they haven't claimed an 80 foot oil column (and nowhere have I claimed they did) but there remodelled seismics as shown in the presentation from 29th October, showed they were targeting 80-100ft of Upper Captain Sands above OWC and as highlighted by BBN they have stated they expect 80ft relief above OWC.

They haven't found that they have found 20ft - the big risk now is that the entire seismic model is vertically out. The entire Liberator East prospect is the Upper Captain sands that deviate above and below OWC and there are sufficient commercial quantities above OWC. If the model is indeed out by 60ft then a large portion of the sands that were expected to be oil bearing are now below OWC and so the entire volumetrics is wrong and it throws in doubt whether it is commercial.

This is now high risk - Liberator phase 1 looks to be highly in doubt and then the fact there is high yield debt with no cashflow and covenants that would kick in at end of April come into effect.

"The SP was around 25p before yesterday’s RNS. In the last ten minutes of trading the SP went up to the 29-30p level. Those that read the RNS bought it."

Personal view is that this morning, it will drop back substantially again as the implications of the RNS have been processed and understood overnight.

BWN - its not net pay. Its total sands - the net pay depends on the net to gross in the sands.

Look at the slide I linked to in presentation - they were indicating the captain sands were extended about 100ft higher than the OWC at the A3 location

Always appreciate your posts BBN, however I really think this looks to be a bad result. This was supposed to be one of the regional development peaks with 80-100feet of sands above OWC and initial prognosis is just 20feet - this will have a significant impact on oil in place and recoverable quantities and again shows something is off with their seismic model.

I suspect they are pleased because it continues support migration to Liberator West where there should be thicker sands above OWC, but it looks to be real negative again for phase 1.

I hope you are right and I'm wrong but not seeing it at the moment.

“ Spike - you need new glasses mate”

Ophidian - explain how I am wrong.

“can anyone please supply a reference to anywhere where the company have said they expect to find an 80 - 100ft oil column here ? I suspect not.”

https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/20191029-i3-LIBERATOR-UPDATE-vF.pdf

Page 6 in the diagram - shows the captain sands at the A3 location to be about 300ft total with circa 100ft above OWC