Investing Matters Podcast - Episode 3 featuring award winning tech innovator Elizabeth Gooch MBE is now LIVE. Listen here.
“They said no and the first 30 pages have been released, shows 10s of thousands of adverse reactions and 1200 deaths within first 90 days. (USA)“
In the first three months Pfizer shipped tens of millions of vaccines which were then delivered. Adverse reports and subsequent deaths don’t necessarily relate to the vaccine, it just happens that someone has a condition post vaccine that is then report as a potential adverse event.
1200 deaths out of tens of millions of people in a few weeks, especially when the initially doses were focused on the vulnerable is likely to be well within the statistical range of expected deaths for that group, vaccinated or not.
Hence the MSM aren’t bothered as it’s a non-story.
S-T - I assume you refer to me with that comment, which is a shame as I was actually about to comment that this board is very open and although we have a different opinion as to short term valuation, I appreciate the time you have taken to respond and the politeness of response. I’ve also highlight to you why I believe your case is overly bullish and showed you were I get the 12.5 2P.
As to other boards, I’m bullish on Altn which my posts reflect - in JSE and I3E but don’t post much and negative on UJO which I did hold but is now an utter bag of garbage with some terrible rampers on that board.
"The earlier quote that 'contrary to popular belief the market is not generally that stupid to miss easy wins' allowed me a wee smile because we know the market is stupid enough to buy into easy losses. The market has no hesitation in being stupid at times."
NoEasy - that was me, and my post did acknowledge that on small AIM stocks it tends to be the other way that PIs underestimate the risk and overestimate the upside, hence the buy the rumour, sell the news behaviour of many stocks.
My point here is that if this is such a no brainer of a well, then its seems improbable that this well is going to result in a 3 bagger or more as some posters are suggesting upon success. My belief is that it is not a no brainer well, but the risk is pretty well understood and the market is currently overpriced the risk (or underpricing the chance of success), although I do agree it is under the radar.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the run up to the drill, whether the market becomes aware and some more hot money comes here.
“Not sure why you keep quoting that 2P figure?“
12.5million barrels will be the net 2P to Advance if the gross 34million 2C case is confirmed by the well. The PSC with East Timor assigns 65% of oil profit to the holders of the licence so 25million is the net 2C attributable to the licence holders net if the East Timor interest at the gross 34million 2C case - this is outlined in the CPR.
“Just take a look at the market cap at Jadestone Energy who are producing 20,000bopd.
If we hit a successful at Buffalo that will yeild 20,000bopd”
As highlighted before Jadestone have over 50million of 2P, another 60million+ of 2C across multiple developments - they have a reserve life of approximately 7 years at 20,000bopd with plenty of contingent resources to extend further.
Comparing Jadestone which is actually producing 20,000 bopd (assuming the Skua work overs are successful) to Advance which if this is successful could in the near future produce 20,000 bopd is completely superficial, especially given its known that Buffalo will have high peak production but quickly decline.
Never say never with small oil stocks but Buffalo pre development with 12.5million 2P is unlikely to be worth the £200million+ you are predicting.
It comes back to your previous post - if this is such a nailed on, no risk drill, why would the market be discounting it by 80% of your assumed value?
"Have I been wrong about Wressle producing and the solid income Union Jack is banking now ?"
You've been utterly and repeatedly wrong about the value of Wressle, you have zero comprehension of valuing depleting assets.
You've been hopelessly wrong about the value of Union Jack in general, ramping the pants of it with utterly fantasy targets.
"Mirasol, I get you about shorting, but his first comment fair enough: why WOULD real holders keep moaning here and deramping? Just so sad and obvious."
Why would holders want a ramping echo chamber and what good would that do potential new investors. Those posting negatively here have pretty much been bang on the money, while the chief rampers have been repeatedly and hopelessly wrong.
“ There are more knowns here than unknowns hence the very high 95% C.o.S.”
If the risk is so low then why would you expect the share price not to reflect that - contrary to popular belief the market is not generally that stupid to miss easy wins, rather with small caps it tends to be the other way.
This has risk - it has operational risk, it has drilling and geological risk and it has funding and dilution risk.
I believe the market has slightly mis priced this risk and so it offers a good opportunity, but it’s certainly not a no brainer otherwise the chance of substantial return would be limited.
"the rimin casino @ Wressle alone has been valued at 40p,"
Arden have just released an updated broker note today where they value Wressle production at 3p per share and Wressle contingent resource at 7p per share.
SP Angel either know something that Arden (and the rest of the market) don't, or somewhere have made a big model error.
“It flowed, it's not sustainable just yet. As you fine we'll know that's not unusual for UK onshore“
Great, how many millions have been spent not getting it to flow and how many millions more might need to be spent to try and get it to flow?
It’s not unusual for Uk onshore which is why most Uk onshore “biggest since Wytch farm” end up coming to nothing.
“ Which part of recovered to surface are you confused by?”
An extended well test is to test flow rates to determine commerciality. Bringing samples to the surface does not cut it - how many millions have they spent bringing some samples to the surface?
There seems to be a slight change of sentiment in recent days around gold stocks - gold has been somewhat out of favour for the last few months, but gold stocks in general have underperformed gold.
In the last couple of weeks now gold has been treading water at around the $1750 mark, however GDX (the ETF tracking gold majors) is around 8% of the lows it hit at the end of September and GDXJ (the ETF tracking large junior gold miners) is up around 10%.
With gold I generally like to follow Jordan Roy Byrne who has been pretty good with his forecasts over the last couple of years especially in predicting this consolidation with retests of $1750 or even $1680 which has come to pass. One of his predictions is also that sentiment will return to the miners first and then to gold and that this will coincide with the stock market getting toppy and the next leg up in gold will follow when the stock market begins to correct - all this so far seems to playing out pretty well.
Well hopefully now a decent trading update is out, the company can close the note issuance they are clearly planning which will provide the funds needs for the large CAPEX they have in the plans next year - that would then reduce the concern that a large equity issuance is coming.
Although I wouldn't rule out an equity issuance alongside the note issuance, but equally given the low free float here, its not impossible it can be done at the SP or even at a premium and reducing more equity which would reduce the percent of the company that the family holds, would also actually be a positive.
Good continued progress, slightly lower than I thought it might be and now they will need to achieve 9,500oz in Q4 to achieve the 30,000oz target they put in the most recent presentation, however that is also the quarterly rate they need to achieve to hit the targets in 2022 so potentially its possible.
Good to see grades continuing to improve, that really has been a success this year.
Main open question for me is what is the actual processing capacity of the plant - nameplate is 850koz, but they still have fallen short of processing everything mined - it could be a timing thing, but the do have inventory from last year that is still awaiting processing.