Member Info for spike501

Elrico - you responded to my post on TWs website

Cash burn isn’t 400k, it’s 1.1million in first half - that already excludes all the non cash items, such as share costs, D&A and the related company loss

There is also no cash ‘hidden’

“Bit of a wet fart today though ;) 7% up on that news, pathetic really when you see some stocks on here up more on jack ****e, some up more on a spud”

Spike (the other one!) - I’m not too surprised by the SP today, today was only the official confirmation of what had more or less been communicated already.

I’d say there was a fair amount of froth in the SP before today on the anticipation that it was an oil discovery - you know the old AIM adage, “buy the rumour, sell the news”. I see it as very positive that the news was further bought and I feel that 0.3 is now the floor as opposed to the ceiling and provides a platform for further growth if the well flows well in coming weeks.

"I heard a rumour that they hit gas of a kind they weren’t expecting that they weren’t allowed to go through? Is that possible?"

It was blancmange and unfortunately it was pink which wasn't covered by the environmental licence which only covered green and blue.

Thomas Cook aren't being bought, they are being bailed out - so no it wouldn't be shafted like Thomas Cook.

Another good step along - hopefully this moves it to a new trading range above 0.3p. The absolute key to the next level now will be the flowing of the oil and the overall characteristics - "up to 15% porosities" is positive but I'd say not yet a banker.

They had 5.3 million BoE contigent resources - to book reserves requires a field development plan, of which this well will be a substantial input.

"Come on Sting, let’s have an answer, how thick are you spike that you keep posting when all UJO ers know your game. Sad."

Quick man - someone says UJO might not 10 bag, get your tinfoil hat on.

11p UKOG was insanity and it was only intraday - that valued it at just under £400million and was on the back of figures of billions of barrels being talked about.

Are you supposing your ignorance applies to everyone Ginger?

"but David Bramhill has stated several times he thinks the share price can go to 3 or 4 pence"

Bramhill was making a point that UJO was unlikely to be a target for shorts as it could very easily spike to high level and wipe shorters out - his 3 or 4p was just a blurt.

3p is a market cap of £360million, 4p is £480million - those types of figures simply aren't credible.

Sorry Heid

“rise with a better than Wytch Farm set up here.”

This is no better than the tosh Woodstock posts. If this is 10% the size of Wytch Farm it’ll be a right result.

Woodstock

"Rather than being taken in by the regulars on this board. I took time of researching the project at Newton B properly."

Where you went wrong is that West Newton B doesn't exist yet - its still a field. I can understand why that would leave you to conclude its not viable. If you head over to West Newton A, where there A-2 well is it might give you a better idea.

maybe, maybe not

UKOG was a massive ramp on a shale play with stupid extrapolations and billion barrel tweets - a total mugs game and I still wouldn’t touch it for 25% of today’s market cap.

This has nicely underpinned value with plenty of potential but if it spikes near 1p I’ll be out until it hits a more sensible valuation

"Sorry Spike you're saying £6 per bbl on a fully appraised onshore prospect close to infrastructure ? Nope, for the North Sea maybe."

As its clearly not a 600million barrel field its a bit academic, but a field that size would require massive development and onshore that sort of development is extremely difficult. Wytch farm currently has 13 drill sites with over 100 wells.

"To get to a market cap of £600m you would need WN to be in excess of a 100m barrels (fag packet calculations) but near enough."

It'd need the recoverable attributable to UJO to be around 100million to get near £600million, therefore WN to be in excess of 500million recoverable, which clearly it isn't.

5p is just fantasy territory

VanVan - my final sentence was ambiguous.

I AM invested here - just not with DB as a reason - I was actually invested in Nighthawk, although fairly early on as a very small punt and had minor losses, hence I was wary due to DB's involvement here. However the assets look good and as I say I don't believe he is a shyster like a lot of management on AIM companies

"It doesn't look like there was a happy ending at Nighthawk. Was D.B. involved to the end?"

No he wasn't, but it was him that effectively built and promoted what were a collection of rubbish assets - it didn't fail because of bad management, but because the assets were worthless in the first place.

I'm not sure it matters - one thing you need from an small AIM CEO is to be a good promoter and Bramhill certainly is. I'm sure Bramhill genuinely believed the assets in Colorado were good and did a great of promoting, raising capital and trying to drill. Its always a risk in junior oil exploration that the assets aren't as good as you think. He generally seems a decent guy.

I'm not invested here because of Bramhill - I don't think he has a midas touch, nor do I think he is a failure from his previous experience at NIghthawk. On this occassion he seems to have put together a decent collection of assets, no doubt with the help of his technical team.

I'm not saying he hasn't seen it - I'm just questioning whether it is price sensitive information directly from the companies, or whether it is a research note or broker briefing from a third party.

Just to take apart what he has said...

“initial well results and gas discovery are ‘Outstanding” - consistent with what has been said in the RNS.

With“25 metre net pay gas which is likely to be upgraded to 300bcf” - the RNS confirmed the pay and indicated the results "positively correlate", i.e. exceed the pre-drill expectation so we know an upgrade is coming - 300bcf could merely be speculation on behalf of whoever wrote the note

Cores taken from the Cadby Reef are “Oil Saturated" - we already know this via RNS

“40 Metre Net Oil/Condensate column” just under the gas cap - we already know this via RNS

“70-100 million barrels from the 40 Metre Oil/Condensate coloumn” - as per the 300bcf this could merely be informed speculation from whoever wrote the report.

Its not really clear if BMD has released anything that is directly from the companies or that is actually new. They have already announced they have discovered liquids and that the Gas discovery exceeded expectations. The first cut out he has just looks like it is speculation, the bit that is redacted is probably key.

It does look rather like a broker report and these things often work in the way that the broker will make their own estimates based upon available information and then the company will simply say something like "you wouldn't be wrong to think a long those lines" - the company hasn't given away any sensitive information.