Member Info for spike501

Mikemike - you're kidding yourself, there is no hope here. Administration crystalises the debt and a liquidity becomes a solvency issue - if it continues as a going concern in any form debt holders will take a hair cut and shareholders will be wiped out. The administrator makes no difference - it is not US listed or regulated so it's irrelevant. Really give it up and forget about it - anything else is a futile waste of time. You'd be better off learning to read tea leaves to guess the lottery numbers.

No - nothing about going to Admin is good for shareholders. Shareholders will get nothing

Bobzim - it's just lack of liquidity on TSE so the spreads are even larger. I haven't looked but I guess that would have been a single buy. As to your other post - this is now probably a short term leveraged play on oil. If oil rebounds it is likely this will move sharply so in the short term it may be possible to get a higher exit than 1.5p. However I think that short term window is only until Q2 results are released in the next couple of weeks, after which I think will show at best stable production together with a very weak balance sheet and this could go sub 1p. The only savior now is a refinancing or asset sale and I see both as highly unlikely.

Texas - agree, it's a shame. Simply caught out by timing.

Texas - Caza are in breach of the covenants on the Apollo debt and so Apollo have the right to call the full debt in at any point, hence the auditors insisting this was classified as a current liability. Currently they have waived any rights until September - they could decide in September to call the debt in and then take possession of the assets to resell. I think it is unlikely but this is very much hanging over the companies head. Yorkville no doubt have a short position to protect their investment As to whether Caza can afford to make interest payments - firstly, I'm pretty sure Apollo have not changed any interest dates, they remain payable quarterly. Secondly, Caza may have some cash but they have payables in excess of receivables and regular cash outflow so something has to give. I expect suppliers who are unsecured will play ball and allow Caza to make interest payments but they will soon be missing some payment deadlines if they haven't already. I expect the results to show how desperate the situation is. I expect it will go sub 1p

You think the company is worth $1.5bn - seriously?? As far as I can see the assets are struggling to be worth more than the outstanding liabilities and its possible Caza will find their hand forced soon due to the Apollo debt. Apollo hold all the cards and if they decide to liquidate it is game over for shareholders - the Afren comparison may be apt.

I think someone has hacked GRQs account :o) Totally agree with all you say - comprehensive, transparent results but now is the time to deliver.

Vernony- it's only worth what someone will pay for it and regulators won't care if that is not enough to leave anything for shareholders after paying for debts. I said months ago and I repeat now, I see no value for shareholders here.

Tide - what exactly are Caza supposed to pay their debts with?

On holiday at the moment with little internet access so not had chance to comment on the results. I wasn't too impressed with the final results from 2014 - sneaked out on a Friday afternoon and not particularly well presented. However, very pleased to see these interims released so early, with comprehensive commentary and some very confident statements, especially this "with a monthly profit expected to be maintained by Q4 2015 or earlier." Assuming creditors for trade payables remain supportive, then with current booked revenue and and remaining cash and receivables then the company probably has enough to see it through the rest of this year and obviously if contracts do renew and profitability is reached in Q4 then the company should certainly be ok. While we have heard second hand from discussion at the AGM about the contract pipeline this is the first time a specific number has been put into an RNS and with discussions ongoing with 30 CCGs it appears that services remain in demand. All in all a very pleasing update - however now there should be no excuses for not delivering and I expect to see progress before year end, otherwise I think it probably time to review my investment here and possibly move on.

GRQ - on the transparency piece I also had a fairly detailed discussion with Ms Lawrence regarding giving investors more insights into when contracts start and end so we can start to draw our own forecasts - so I'm not letting you take sole credit for that one :o) Gross profit was up, not because of cost cutting but because this is a high margin business and each additional contract has a very high gross margin, so the additional contracts that ran in the second half had a significant impact on revenue with very little impact on cost of sales. This is one of the main reasons I am invested in Totally. The second half of the year saw working capital outflow of just £130k - while there remains a small current net liability position, there is still cash on the balance sheet and given first half was likely cashflow neutral the company should still be ok for now. "It seems the NHS could well be dispensing with our services." I see no justification for this comment - NHS England are retaining our services until the end of the year which is an extension, Leicester until Q1 next year and Merton and Guildford and Waverly have explicitely stated they intend to commission Totally in 2015/16. The pilot successes are not just reliant on Totally but also on the CCG setting the scheme up and executing it properly.There are many reasons why pilots might not be successful in all places - I know from reading Rochdale's CCG documents that the pilot struggled in Rochdale due to a low number of referrals, specifically because of language difficulties. "Still, I wonder how much money the 'Direct to Consumer model' will cost us poor investors." I totally agree, I am not enthused by this at all. While there is potentially a big market there I think cracking into that market will be expensive. Agree with Knigelk - next 3-6 months are key.

Firstly, good news that last years performance has been confirmed - expectations was for approx £5.6million in revenues, £1.4million in EBITDA and a small PBT. Given at the half year EBITDA was zero and a loss before tax of £800k, it shows a very strong second half, with around £800k cash generated (after working capital plays out). This leaves the balance sheet looking strong and is before any significant license fee revenue from Mexico. I'm very much intrigued by the final statement... "We are delighted with the size and scale of contracts that we managed to secure during the period, providing high levels of visibility while also providing a step change for our growth potential. We very much look forward to updating the market in due course." The only announcement in the period, other than the Tier 1 launch was Movistar in Peru. The above statement such additional size able contracts were secured in the period that haven't yet been announced. This has been slower to develop than I anticipated by I remain very comfortable with the size able investment I have here.

The latest financial report from Merton CCG shows that they have £116k as a recurring budget item for 2015/16. You can find it on page 18 of the link - just search for coaching and it takes you there. http://www.mertonccg.nhs.uk/about-us/Our-Governing-Body/Merton%20Board%20Papers/8GB%2028.05.15%20FIN%20BUDGETS.pdf

The latest commissioning intentions from Guildford and Waverly confirm they plan to commission totally in 2015-16 http://www.guildfordandwaverleyccg.nhs.uk/website/X09413/files/150526-11a_Operational_Plan_2015_16_Final_GB_Mtg_in_public_GWCCG.pdf Top of page 49

Konangi - do you not read any of the financial statements? The Apollo notes are in breach of covenant but Caza have been given a waiver until September. It's highly likely in September that Caza will still be in breach and there is a risk Apolllo could call the notes in. Refinancing will be extremely difficult for Caza as the debt markets have significantly tightened - Caza could only gets notes at 12% when financing was easy. As for having $5million cash - it's not much comfort when short term payables, mostly for drilling are far in excess of this. Caza have a $5million working capital deficit and free cash flow is at best $1.5million per quarter - unless they can get cash they are likely to start missing payment dates for bills. As for no placing - it's already been done - Caza have taken $4million (or us it 5?) from Yorkville and that will be converted into equity - around 25% dilution at current share price and with this hanging over the SP is unlikely to rise much from here.

"the positive is the dilution is relatively small. I think as PIs we are used to huge sums, massive discounts and our stakes completely destroyed." Unvrkw - a major part of any decision I take to invest in an AIM stock is whether they will need funding. Fox had a strong balance sheet, made consistent comments about being well funded through completion of the factory. The price of the placing is less than any conversion amount so paying of the loan is no benefit, even when including interest costs for the next year. If there is appetite for the shares but the cash is not needed then issue the shares at market price or even at a small premium that would be less than if the investors tried to buy 10million in the market - if investors are that keen in owning the shares they should have no problem with that. Its not the end of the world and it doesn't substantially change the investment case, but its very disappointing that this has been done with no discernible benefit for shareholders.

"It suggests to me that, given FOX already had £4.7m net cash, there were investors keen to take a stake at this interesting point in the company's development. This is reinforced by the existing investors now increasing their stakes." I must say I'm not particularly happy about new investors getting an opportunity to get a stake at a discount when there is no obvious need for the cash.

Doesn't make sense this placing to me - having quickly scanned the old documents it seems the minimum conversion price on the notes is 20p. After paying expenses for the placing and presumably early repayment penalties on the loan notes I can't imagine much more than £500k is leftover which surely Fox already have on the balance sheet and with the expectation of being cash generative this year does not seem to be needed. Sure the discount is not too big to yesterday's share price, but in hindsight the fallback from 24p looks telling.

The annual results indicated that completion of the building was 5 days away at which point the machines would be shipped from Italy for installation. I expect the next update will come either when the factory is fully completed and everything installed, or even when it is staffed and operational - unless of course we get an update on a sales contract and they slip and update in there. Do we really need the company to spend time and money to release an RNS to simply say the factory is built before anything is installed or it is operational?

Yes, another pleasing week ticking up to 22.50 on the bid now. Could well be an RNS on Monday updating on the Chinese offtake agreement and the completion of the factory shell. I guess further offtake agreements will very much depend on how much the Chinese take and the success of the factory. The real money to be made is with the processed marble so its good to have some big offtake agreements for the block marble that can effectively cover overheads but I imagine the company doesn't want to over commit to block sales until they see how well processed marble can be shifted. With around 25000 tonnes being quarried this year, the minimum amount the Chinese have committed to is 40% of that, however if they are prepared to take more then other than for diversification no other very large agreements are needed. Although of course there is something like 15000 tonnes in stock. Very pleased to be in here at a considerably lower average than today - short of global recession which seems unlikely due to significant monetary and fiscal stimulus being thrown about by central banks and governments at the moment, its difficult to see this not advancing further. Kosovo is showing itself to be politically stable, the production costs are low and it is close to an improving european economy.