RE: FDA EUA approval takes days23 Jul 2020 22:47
Jambo... we are all geeks; founded an analytics company in 1999 and after we sold out we got bored so started building our own models and AI (me and 2 mates who were directors). Mostly Because i found it dull to sit in front of a screen as id rather bike, hike etc. So unless it rains i dont actively follow much, just rely on the mathematical modelling to alert me. I get as many wrong as right as you still have to do what the models tell you to do (which for some curious reason is always really hard mentally!) and you have to be around, not trekking across a mountain etc but kind of enjoy. If you are starting from scratch, then indices are easier to model. Start with something really easy like the ftse100, track its closing prices on a spreadsheet, and play around with weightings on whether they go up and down (weight the ones going down harsher). Thus create a psychological momentum factor As a second index. Then overlay 9 and 20 day Rolling averages and their cross points - if you faff for a while over the course of eg 3 months you will get the weights right on the momentum factors to know when to buy / sell indices. Indices are a lot easier than individual stocks. The automated robots kind of start with roughly the above but then overlay demand etc but if you start with the above you wont go too far wrong on eg ftse100 or S&P etc. The hard part will be to buy when its telling you to as you wont want to and to sell when you also dont want to! I often know the model is absolutely spot on but just watch it as i think it cant be! If you then chart the above as 2 lines on a chart, you will see where all the key trading bands are and where the sticking points are. It helps to try and do this as for example at the moment, my model says ftse is in middle sending up neither buy nor sell signals but on a key barrier point. So i then forget about it and go hiking. March sent up massive buy signals but very hard to actually do it! Its very counter intuitive. Give it a go... ?
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