RE: exclusive group....23 Jul 2020 12:33
i am not at all knowledgeable about this company but i ran a major data analytics company for many years which i sold a while back so during lock down have got a bit bored and started building models, and analysing the covid data to send to a pal who is a cancer surgeon at Imperial and been lobbying gov actively since feb. So i know more about covid than Synairgen. Just happen to have bought a load back in 2015/17 on a punt. So i am just piecing together as i would when i sold the data company to the plc, what the numbers might look like as an investment case vs expenditure required. I'll share if i get anywhere. But at the moment i think this will drift without better data which i am sure they must be working on round the clock to get, as sample size small, too small for anything other than lets put some more dosh in and scale up as might be something in this. Trying to piece who this would be given to - the COPD patients, whole population etc. to work out the population versus the ability to produce at the moment. If anyone got anything to help, that would be great. I'll look at it. However, having background in analytics helps you not panic to a certain degree as one std dev from the mean price on this (you can draw a bollinger band on any chart), will show you that the fluctuation around the norm is high and the price has not been outside that yet since monday. On Monday it broke 3 std devs - i dont like that and normally sell when things go too far above its bollinger bands but now its back within them and i prefer that. Bit like Man U getting a champions league spot really... 2 steps forward, 1 back, could score 5 or 1 depending if greenwood playing his play station or not but actually anything between 2 and 5 would be normal and not too much to worry about. 5 is an outlier - not so keen on them and 1 is bottom of normal and dont like them either. Synairgen averages are just like that. Wide spread between 170 and 195 - either would be 'normal' in simple maths terms.