Member Info for Sparkle1

i am on phone to them as we speak. Cannot get in via android either.

capn pugwash - i have spoken to HL - they are down but trying to not tell you they are down. Their engineers are 'working on it'. That was 15 minutes ago.

HL is really easy to use. Tick box. However, IMHO rubbish on anything not in sterling. They charge miles over the bank base rate for currency exchange and i;d prefer to change my currency and i might want to keep it in eg Euros or $ until exchange rate better etc.
IG allows you to eg have Euros, keep in Euros etc. Or $ or whatever so if you wanted to eg buy Gilead or Apple or something you can choose when to load account in $ and when to convert back to £ at an exchange rate to suit you - also if you want to have a few US shares, you might never take it out of $ for ages. HL would charge you a currency exchange rate on each and every one so hopeless.
If you want to day trade properly you need level 2 really. I think Saxo has a really nice interface for that.
Hope this helps.

HL is down - they know, are'working on it'.

Phantom - thats a super video. thanks. well found.

This i think, is quite a nice summary of vaccines....

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/coronavirus-vaccine-race-operation-warp-speed-explained-200727150101029.html

https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/clinical-update-phase-ii-covid-19-study-open-enrolment

this was another woodford share - been a complete dog for me - but just perking up recently. Have held for years, averaging down all the time (just like Synairgen), but looks interesting too now.
This is not winner takes all pie. There will be multiple companies - no-one can supply the whole world. Its not possible. Just need a nice pie slice.

Ghia, the Astra competitive product to GSk got FDA approval last week. Their takings in lung stuff was up 10% last year but in cancer, up 44%...
The Pfizer bid came in for Astra in 2014, overlapped with the initial Synairgen trial. However, with the Pfizer bid, the Astra CEO had to fight it off, re-adjust the strategy and made his strategy much clearer so the statement below that states it was not in line with his strategic objectives could have simply meant ' i gotta get my earnings up pronto having turned away massive Pfizer bid; so lets focus'....

Welsh folly... that made me laugh! It means nothing, why would a director of a massive drug company turn up with little to no notice when he was also told he had a month to come up with an alternative? And in any event, they are not compelled to come up with anything just because trump bullies them. If they all fail to turn up whats trump going to do? Say he wont buy any drugs at all? Trumps a bully and the pharmas aren't being bullied. So means nothing as they will now think about it for a month And / or might be good for Europe as these are multinationals so they might decide to change their domicile. Anyway, made me laugh that they all stuck two fingers up at him - they might just think well hes going to not be there in a few weeks.

Ive had mine for 5 years... im now into hard logic... Will keep Synairgen but the more i have started to understand it, then i quite fancy buying a few others as well. and Sanofi (flu). I wouldnt have done other than weeding out stuff on this board but the company has already said it wants to sell or have a partner so its not like Bezos on Amazon who did not want to sell and was going to stay for the long haul. My ave on Synairgen is 17p and ive held for 5 years so hard logic coming into play here given the sums now involved. Any buy out will be at a premium to the share price so no point in selling. But it might not be the premiums being talked about on this board. RM might just want some sleep; see the product out there saving lives and take home some dosh now, with the potential for a hell of a lot over time. Im not trying to ramp or unramp - i invested 25k originally; looked at them very occasionally, always seemed to be losing money so ignored them not least as Neil Woodford stated he thought it would take 10 years, so i just left them there. But now i quite fancy some flu vaccines as well... you might too so thought i'd share. Told you it was lateral logic.... you can take it or leave it. Just sharing it. thats all.

Goose... dont need to be money driven... they can get off knowing that their baby is going to be really well looked after, they can still babysit it with company buying it out and be on upside of profit and bank £14m tomorrow. So they dont have to be turned on by the cash - they get their invention to market to change lives quickly AND the financial benefit if it makes zillions. That would be a pretty normal deal.... So if eg GSK said, we'll give you £250m for 51%, the rest vests after 5 years at 8x multiple of the profits and you can still work on it / run it, tell me : why would you say no? Devils advocate and all that.

John117... because having been in that position exactly in 2009, you cut a deal with whoever is buying you to get a cut of the upside in any case; you are knackered from working 20 hours a day; you know you have to get to market within 3 months; you are being offered life changing sums of money and a multiple of the subsequent profits over the next 5 years - which might make you another £100m... why are you going to turn that down? Someone is going to make a lot of money but it might be the company buying them out plus the board of directors on the earn out on the profit over eg next 5 years. Thus i am trying to work out what other companies to buy shares in, in addition to Synairgen.

John117; Oil... I am on lateral thought process... ignore if you want as a bit random... just working out where else to invest....
THis is my alternate lateral random logic:
As far as i can see RM has or had circa 370,000 shares and 2.6m+ options. His salary is 190k plus 100% bonus payments dependent on share price (i think) + pension. Chairman has more. So thinking a bit laterally here, if they sell out for £200m on eg a five year deal, based on market value over 5 years (or whatever), he takes home circa £14m plus the upside of the next few years. Why do we think he wouldnt agree this as the time to market is critical and his options are 1p (£26k to buy).
So as to the value of the company thinking laterally, why would he risk (& the rest of them), slogging their guts out on the offchance of eg £300m which would give him an extra £4m. If it was me, i;d take the cash, cut a deal to remain on the upside is my way of thinking.
Again, laterally, i am trying to work out who gets the upside thereafter as this might not last long on the above numbers - i mean if you are a founder in your 70's, how many £m do you need to have a nice life? So again laterally, i am coming up with a shortlist of those who might benefit from buying it vs upside AND then i think i realised that actually we are not all going to die of the virus - we are going to die of the flu. We only dont die of flu because our immune system responds to it. Knock that out with asymptomatic covid and you die of flu. I am trying to ascertain if this is actually correct - have dropped a line to two london hospitals earlier to ascertain. If anyone knows im totally wrong, then let me know... thanks.
SO in a somewhat roundabout way i am trying to work out where else we also need to invest to get the upside.

Oil: thanks for the earlier post... very helpful... sorry to take a while to reply...
My understanding is that if you get it mildly, then get flu within a couple of weeks, you will die of the flu. Is this your understanding?

Oil... it might. But my understanding was that covid turned off the radar system in a specific way which stopped the inflammatory response that is unique. So if i was big pharma, i might be arguing eg for a licence for covid whilst agreeing the finance to see what other viruses it would treat... i thought the thing was that Coronaviruses were kind of unique in how they entered through the radar system and thus i haven't seen anything that tells me it treats every virus. If there is, apologies, its just i haven't seen it and would be good to know. My understanding though is that if you have coronavirus even mildly, it turns off your immune response so if you then get another virus, you could die of the other virus which previously had not been that harmful. Whats your understanding as im genuinely interested to know...

time will tell... i think the copd thing would transform the value so keep urging patience. The virus is tricky to plan for IMHO.
If its easy, then someone like GE would already have bought it for less than £2bn??
Lets keep it nice - i wish you the best; i have a view; you have yours. They don't have to agree): Thats the point of debate and BBs?...

Mr Big... i agree its worth zillions to a government but not to a private company or a plc without reasonable due diligence. A company like Sanofi or GSK is not picking up the damage caused by Covid - they are just looking at their balance sheet. And its looking pretty nice as it is; all their sales are rocketing; everyone wants more of just about everything they produce; they are knackered scaling up what they already have etc. So has to be in line with their strategy i reckon for them to jump in. So for them, its due diligence time and careful thought. For the Chancellor or Boris or Trump or whoever in gov, then totally different as they are losing shedloads...the gov might of course give whoever a grant to enable it - that might happen, which is interesting.

Joey, my understanding is that the first one was stopped but they immediately in Japan started a slightly different one and they published saying it would be reported on earliest end July. ie around now. However, Fuji can only distribute with OK of Japanese gov. I only know this as back in March I bought shares in Fuji on the back of it so its vaguely on my radar. Ill try find the links for you if interested.

actually, its not ******* peanuts. You are a major pharma. You have a known plan which is delivering to your shareholders, year after year and that plan goes out into the future. If you leave that plan where it is, its safe and strategic and you and your boards' fortunes are wrapped up in it. You now have to make a decision to spend £300m of that which is known on that which is unknown and which might not be exactly in line with your strategy. And it is a gamble on the virus if you are big pharma as virus might dies out. So you do your due diligence and think i need to see the data which shows me that this is going to add to my bottom line for the next 10 years on eg all lung deseases / COPD etc and if i recoup the virus even better. I just dont see any CEO splurging £300m on virus. I see its a lot easier if it has good results on COPD. Thats easier to budget, plan, explain to your ongoing shareholders, can see it is going to recoup costs this year, next year, ten years time. To spend £300m on a virus treatment which might actually just stop the virus so no longer need a treatment for it, then that is actually in my view quite a hard decision. I think patience required.
There was one very interesting post couple of days ago on here about flu. Reading between lines, i thought that was extremely interesting. All the best!

Brentw1... agree... also fuji can only distribute it at Japanese gov request... so not exactly easy - might be tied to eg base for aircraft carrier in South China Sea or something completely outside realm of therapeutics. In any event, Japanese gov delayed approval until July. So maybe they are going to announce its approved and will be made in USA. WHo knows. Side show.
If you have your life savings in this, please get away from this board for a while and get a clear head, as there is a lot of nonsense on it. If you have money you can afford to lose, then be patient as no-one spends £300m+ without serious thought and that thought will currently be ongoing and continuing.
Further Donald already announced his vaccine mtg is Aug 24 ....