Member Info for Sparkle1

Woodford also hoped to flog them all onto GSK as an active investor and when they wouldn't play ball he sold out of GSK. Just looking at the 20 or so i put on a HL watchlist back in 2015, over third have been sold on now which is interesting.

SaberSamson... sorry people are ignoring you... i think they mean institutional investors i.e. corporates, pension funds etc. It was heavily retail investors (you and me) and now its worth the bigger guys investing in.

Volatility... i reckon that is what Woodford himself would have done with his own personal dosh (ie invested in the non income part of the fund privately) so he might be cheering up... and he has just got a job doing illiquid pharma... so im just digging them out to see what if anything just might be a good idea. About a week ago i got an alert on DDDD which i am also only at break even on having averaged down a lot again. So im watching that - they have just applied to do thing on covid too. i was in Patient Capital Trust but sold out July 2017 at 1.047 which was very lucky indeed. Very sad what has happened as it would probably have come OK in the end. But the market moved against him with all the QE etc etc. and very very sad for the shareholders. Especially when it was sold for a song... think there will be a class action brought against Link over that.

thanks volatility, thats really nice of you to say - but to be honest credit needs to go back to Woodford as i did didly squat.
... but trust me i have crap too...

volatility - up 225k at mo... but in back of my mind im thinking they will sell out at eg a 25% to 50% premium to existing price on an earn out as i cant quite see why they wouldn't do that really. However, no need to be jealous as i have a load of other woodford pharma that is complete and utter dogs ... in fact just been looking at what other illiquid shares from the original woodford portfolio are still around as most are down 90% so now worth a punt. I have got a ton of crap but Silence Therapeutics i like too - but only cos my mum died of pancreatic cancer. Thats done pretty well and we all need a cure for that too. I quite like Reneuron too but i am losing money on it - and losing patience with their BOD to publish much or keep the markets happy. The only thing i regularly day trade is Glencore (no stamp duty) and Oil and oil i never go above the original stake trading it. Dont profess to know much about the companies, know a bit about analysis and how companies are run. Thats all.

dumplin... sorry folks, didnt mean to get it wrong... in which case they are rebalancing as portfolio would be too unbalanced.
Yeah, i bought originally on 13 may 2015 when woodford released details of his pharma.. had just sold my company on an earn out and didnt want the 'income' bit of his portfolio and kind of thought he would have done a load of research on the smaller ones, so i bought a load. He was always clear that it would take 10 years on the little illiquid ones...no longer needed money so forgot about it. Non need to research it every day... Diluted 27 oct 17 for 13p; diluted again 7 nov 17 and again in Jan 2019 to bring average down to 17p. Started with 10grand and then diluted up to 25k. So i am a very happy bunny): Still think it will be bought for a premium to the SP so no point in selling. It only became interesting to me recently. Sorry. Know a lot of you have sweated it - but i was knackered sweating my own business so just chucked in an ISA and forgot about it and unless its raining i get bored day trading as you have to look at a screen all day. I tend to buy things and then leave them be and set up alerts. But it is quite interesting at the moment but mostly im doing in background as have a glut of vegetables to cook and freeze! Its nice though as son had kidney transplant and gives him options about returning.
Good luck everyone.

taverham, think you are great. keep making me smile...
they got rid of 8% between april and when the share rocketed so they havent made too many calls correct to date...c- for maths.

Most of the board options are at 1p.
Just piecing together Lansdowne.... in June 19 they had 9.9% which they'd bought in with Woodford and were heavily tied to Woodford. Back in April 20 they seemed to have 18.6% so perhaps they had to buy more of what was left in Woodford as it was illiquid at the time and they cut a deal with the admin across all the holdings they had in it?? who Knows but it was 18.56% in April and they reduced to 16.7% on 15 April. So maybe they are just returning it to the original exposure they had to the company and with the rise in price, the portfolio would have become unbalanced in favour of this share? So they needed to rebalance the underlying portfolio a bit (they probably also have limits on what they can hold in any one share or whatever as well). So currently it probably doesn't mean anything. Also GBP/EUR lost circa 3% in last week.

Its complicated as they are domiciled in Austria so they have to hedge the Euro to £ as well... take a look at GBP/EUR.

hope Bojo looks at Kodak though and works out who can make our generics cheaper for our NHS and then spends the difference on our care home workers and nurses): Its a clever idea. Nothing to do with Synairgen though.

the buying started 12 hours before trump announced...?!????
and its an american institution with current takings of $1bn so not exactly the same.
Its almost become a national grid equivelent overnight hasn't it with another bn of gov money to make generics to drive down price of generic prescriptions. Clever but nothing to do with Synairgen and really quite unrelated.

sorry... you are again missing the lateral thought process... maybe im not explaining it well enough...
the market cap today is approx £300m. Is this good or bad? A fundamental financial question not based on prospects. How much do you pay for the company now today to add value to your bottom line if you are a FD.
Well, the EU just told us that if i was Astra i'd get my money back now if i paid up to £800m (but a lot less if Sanofi). Tells you who is likely to be first to the pie. Nothing to do with future valuation. Just answering the question is £300m a fair value as of today. Just cast my eye over top 10 pharmas and today valuation for them where there is virtually no risk for them and their own shareholders varies between £220m and just under £1bn. Straight numbers. Nothing to do with future valuations. Just answering question put to RM - is this fairly valued.

sorry... again missing point... this is valuation with the current stock. If you then compare eg Sanofi against Astra, Astra can step in faster than eg Sanofi to buy company as adds to valuation of Astra faster etc. No company will buy if it dilutes their own earnings too much so the fact it adds to their earnings puts it firmly on agenda.

think you are missing the point...we have been trying to financially value company. Not easily possible as no profit.
HOwever, this news allow me to work out that if we sell what we have we get circa £50m. Now, if i look at Astra, anything below approx £800m adds to the Astra valuation and bottom line. That makes it more palatable to look at buying.

breaking news on Al Jazeera...
https://www.aljazeera.com/

EU announced purchase of remdesivir to treat 30,000 patients at £74m. Rough rule of thumb on current (note: current) valuation - we have i think enough for 20,000 at current time = £50m on same basis; x8 (only) multiple on buy out = £400m.

bebeto... the trial was stopped because they couldn't get enough people who met AZ criteria for severe exacerbation - that is why AZ said they would remain very interested - just not in continuing to fund a trial they could see might not be able to be proven to be statistically significant due to recruitment... below snip is a direct quote from AZ at the time they pulled.

OIl... i gather Sanofi working to see if they can produce a combined vaccine - thats why i was pleased gov on case. They are also, IMO, the most likely candidate to cut deal with Synairgen.

AZD9412 was being tested in asthma patients developing symptoms of a cold to see if delivery via a nebuliser could prevent worsening of asthma symptoms that is thought to occur after patients get infected with a respiratory virus.

A defect within lung cells from people with asthma means they do not produce interferon beta themselves, compromising part of the natural host defence against viral infections. The rationale is that delivering with AZD9412 can boost the antiviral defences of the lung during this time and prevent exacerbations from developing.

AZ said it is not giving up on the project just yet as inhaled interferon beta "remains an interesting treatment opportunity for patients with respiratory disease," but it seems likely that the programme will be delayed by a couple of years even if it chooses to continue.

christoffer... 66m in UK, 1.2% infected with virus. Thats 792,000.Along comes flu. They die. Bad politics. 792,000x14=11m for UK. Boris will be finished if everyone dies of flu and he can hardly get on tv and say, guys, remember that virus, well dont worry about it as you are all going to die of flu... Sanofi make the flu vaccine. we might all need both.