Member Info for Sparkle1

well i've stayed in for five years... i find the trauma lessens the less you look at it personally if you've invested long term. its only now when its significant a new decision has to be made. As someone said yesterday its same as the game show who wants to be a millionaire... do you bank what you have or gamble. The gamble is bigger now for many than it was. Thus trying to work out the level this should truly be at on basis of some underlying stats... rather than a wing and a prayer and lots of hope.

I just think as uk gov is giving it grant and its on their radar, and as uk gov bought out oxford vaccine co, and as nhs will be largest single client if it works, then i cant help think uk gov will step in.
dont know if there are any medics on here but something bugs me... my understanding that those who get most seriously ill have (diabetes) or COPD already. Those with COPD are likely to already be on remdesivir for the COPD. So it would be a huge call for a doc to take them off remdesivir ... can they have both or not or what? Id be interested to know.

Well, back in 2017 you could pick these up for 8p. So a £25k investment would be returning £750k at £2.40 a share on Monday... but that would have been a serious punt as it was a falling knife then. My average is 17p. I bought originally at 37p in 2015 but averaged down to 17p in 2017. If people bought in when Woodford did (as I did) back in 2015 and then averaged down in 2017 (as i did) then there could be some lucky people on here. But it wasnt intentional - just bought a load of Woodford pharma and chucked it in an ISA on grounds if it trebled would be good to be tax free. Half of them are dogs. A few are good 'uns. I was just lazy - i thought if he'd done the research i might as well benefit from it back in 2015. And had a cousin with COPD, nothing more complicated than that, despite running a big analytics company. So if it is an exclusive group, its probably also a very very lucky group. I also invested in Silence Therapeutics, because my mum and uncle died of pancreatic cancer and it was another Woodford researched share so sometimes you just do things and it just works out. Got a ton of complete dogs too so the people up £600k on this are probably down £400k on something else.

Well, i have been in for 5 years... but i am only going on what i can see reported...
If it factually incorrect, then CityWire, FT, the RNS statements must be incorrect too.
Im just trying to work out if Leonard is good news or bad news - thats all.
Each to their own. I'll stop musing as you arent contributing to finding out the answer - just slating me for trying.
All the best to all of you.

Just look it up... they did sell within 24 hours the first tranche of 1m shares at 36p. Widely reported in financial press?

same thing really... they were the original woodford investment that was sent to Link by the controllers of the fund but yes technically they were sold by Link to Acacia.

thats great. Need them out.

Acacia Research did buy the remains of the Woodford portfolio from Link. It is widely reported in the financial press as owning 12.7% at time of sale. Also widely reported they sold nearly a million the next day for 36p to lower risk. The rest have been sold mostly on notices which are regulatory and easily available for you to see.... As of last wed they had 6.7%, and i have just seen, on reg notice, still had 2.7% end play Friday. Who knows where Leonard bought them but tell me who bought the 1m at 36p the day after Acacia bought them if he did not....?

Sorry.. just seen another post - very helpful on this board - Acacia sold another 4% last Friday so they will sell the other 2-3% this week - we'll probably know by end of week. Might have already sold yesterday or today. They have flipped the lot for profit to pay off some Woodford debt. More than doubled their corporate profit. Fantastically lucky for them - they would not have expected this. They cant have intended it as most were sold at 36p over last 2 months.

he might not have 'traded' them as such - see earlier posts... he could have simply wanted to go back below the regulatory level for the minute; he is also a shareholder in another company Sareum which operates in pharma, so may be a bigger picture; or he may have simply taken out his original stake as he was between £6m and £11.7m up. I was thinking he had bought at approx 52p in April but now i see that Acacia sold for 36p, so likely to be nearer top end of that range. He doesnt need the dosh. Sareum also on a wild ride. However, if you look at the technicals, the std deviations on Synairgen are very wide - imagine the old bell curves from school maths - the 'average' at the moment could be anything between 172 and 195 so it may mean pretty much nothing other than swings. It has not gone in maths terms a long way from the norm really. You are either in it at least till end Aug or you trade it on the swings around the mean (or do both). I think another 6% has to change hands shortly if not already doing so - that doesnt alter the August timeline - it just means 6.7% is owned by a company who wants to sell as it got luckier than they knew and they have a large debt to pay down so i think they will cash in to lower their risk. Doesnt alter the prospects of the company - its a side show but makes for a bit of a bumpy road.

He bought in, in April, piecing together the pieces, i think what has happened is that Acacia Research bought the rest of Woodford. They immediately sold just under a million within 24 hours, for 36p, presumably at a profit but to cut risk, which would not be unusual. They then proceeding to sell another 5% or so up to last Wed. I think Leonard must have bought these from Acacia and it was probably just a straight sell. However, Acacia still have 6.7% to flip and the profit they have made will be massive to them as they only have takings of $12m but paid >£220m for the Woodford stuff so they are in the flipping business. They will want to sell to a few people or a large company etc as just easier and quicker and doesnt take up so much time i would have thought. SO if i was Acacia, sitting on a ton of profit, knowing i have to sell, and a large company or super wealthy individual came along, i'd sell at a discount to get rid of so many and bank the dosh to pay down the debt. Might know more tomorrow when Acacia report. So Leonard originally had zero. Bought in from April is my understanding.

Can anyone tell me why anyone is still putting into GGP when the board of directors sold zillions recently below the current price? I dont get it. What am i missing?

as of a week ago Acacia still had 6.9% and they intend to flip it to someone
They sold the first million shares the day after they acquired them for 36p. Presumably at a gain. The next 5.7% were sold - presumably to Leonard - for approx the same. They are both in the money. Acacia need it more. Fairly sure now they will sell out - preferably in their position to a large investor or corporate as less work. Acacia will not hold IMHO having sold down half for 36p ish. The daily pivot point for this share on Fib at 1 std dev is 1.72. Its easy to buy and sell at the moment so the the bandwidth i vaguely think is 1.72 to 1.94 - anything in that band would be within 1 std dev of the norm i.e. normal.

mmm... done a bit more digging. Acacia stake when it was sold was 12.6% and they sold it down to 6.9% as at last Wednesday. Bet they feel ill. However, think this must be the the chunk picked up by Leonard which would make sense as he may have approached them given he knew about Sareum work on Covid too. Anyhow, i cannot imagine that Acacia will not now sell the rest. They are in the business of flipping. Might make for a bit of a bumpy ride. All supposition but gradually piecing it together... So might be a bump in road but it is a know expected bump is my take on this.

more musings... Woodford paid approx 52p for his stake which he built up to 0.4% of his income fund at height which was approx £3.7m. This was sold onto Acacia back in April who are Californian company who spread out licencing / patents. They immediately sold some - anyone know how many?? - onwards as there was a bit of a stink about them having been sold too cheaply to Acacia. But i reckon Leonard paid roughly 50p at same time as Acacia sold in April. So i reckon Acacia (who are the people who sell on patents etc) - quoted on Nasdaq - had about 6-7m shares from Woodford. Leonard seems to have picked up 2.8m same week. ASsuming this conspiracy theory is correct as i have no idea, then that means Acacia still had approx 3-4m shares so are on a £5-6m ish profit. Now... Acacia revenue is on Nasdaq and according to that turnover is only $12m... but Woodford assets cost £200m+. So £6m profit is kind of nice to have.... so if Acacia still have any Synairgen then i think they are going to sell. They started to sell the assets very quickly - within days. They report their results tomorrow. If they havent got many or any left, then i think they may have offloaded them to Leonard due to timing - anyway thats my latest conspiracy theory. We dont want them with Acacia in any event.

if it helps anyone calm down, i'm more worried about de Gea playing in the Man U / West Ham game tonight...

vague musings...
he bought in, in mid-April 2.775m lets assume 52p = £1.443m
lets assume as it went down to 35p etc he averaged down to lower his immediate loss...
if the remainder of his purchase was at average of 35p, he is £11.7m up; if at 60p, he is £10.4m up etc...
So on average best best he is probably circa £10m up on a £3.5m ish investment but somewhere between 6m and 11.7m in any event. Ex fund manager.
He is also a major shareholder in Sareum which is interesting as he would have had a lot of knowledge on the Sareum product already.
So conspiracy theories:
theory 1: he knew a bit about it from Sareum; bought in at 50p ish and then had to average down over the summer so ended up owning a lot upon which he took a more active interest last week for some reason.
theory 2. He wants to own a portfolio of early pharma companies, merge the lot and sell them on to Astra, GSK, Sanofi whoever. If this, he needs more but he doesnt seem to be an activist... whole background is fund management.
theory 3. He might just have reinvested the balance of the profits from the original purchase and taken out his dosh and will see what happens.
Not sure that this purchase changes my view of anything given the above unless he uses his connections to push it to other fund managers. I think i'd rather have a corporate than an individual ex fund manager though. Needs mulling over!

We'll agree to differ.... ):
If you had £1m who would you invest in to deliver the drug to millions of people:
a) a company which could easily afford to scale it, roll it out, advertise it, deliver it and which had existing revenues and supply chain worth $22bn or
b) a company with great promise but no revenue, known supply chain etc etc.
I'd invest in both probably but they dont have in my view, the same valuation. If they did, the Synairgen share price would already be as you suggest.
Lets agree to differ as i dont think either of us will budge on this... good luck, wish you well.

The difference here is that Synairgen has zero turnover. Gilead has REVENUE of $22bn. Thus your statement on valuation is nonsense in my view. Synairgen has huge potential if it works and can fund. That is entirely different to a mega billion $ company already trading out to protect its revenues.

Sure, i think if Gilead buys it will be to close it down. Not going to happen in my view when the UK gov is giving it grants. The Gov bought the Oxford vaccine company. The biggest beneficiary if it works will be the NHS.