Member Info for Sotolo

Noel is not insane, he has a view, which is appreciated even if we disagree and he asks for our reasoned thoughts. Because a share has fallen doesn’t mean it won’t go on falling; it is always worth remembering the adages “ the trend is your friend” and “don’t try to catch folding knives“; . It depends why the share has fallen, with us on lousy figures and collapse production, which the market finds hard to forgive quickly even if largely because of Covid. Hopefully this fala one off IF Covid, and South American politics, don’t get worse and production ever recover sto last years figures - remember we were predicting quite a fall before Covid and mines running dry. To my mind however the hochschild chart Now Is less important than the PM chart, which is looking weak, if precious metals continue to fall then Hochschild probably will too, and vice versa. However I believe that this is only a PM a correction which is hard to time, so I am staying in on the basis that once Hochschild is back in full production despite lower output we should be creaming in the cash, but remember next quarters figures will be pretty rubbish too!

Noel is not insane, as he points out it is just a view, and we know that because something has dropped doesn’t mean it won’t go on dropping and dropping. Catching a falling knife comes to mind. It depends whether gold and silver fall further, to my mind the metal charts are more important than the Hoc chart, and looking at the PM charts a further fall seems quite likely, in which case Noel is likely to be proved right. However I am holding on the basis that this is a PM correction that has further to go, but will turn back up, I am not going out and in-as don’t know when the hopeful turn back up will be.

Noel absolutely keep posting, so many of us appreciate it. Also many of us have been through the school playground rudeness on thes boards, especially when we expect a share price to fall, as though our words could make any difference to a big share like this. As said before just don’t rise to it. ie keep on posting, ignore criticism and it will go away, instead of providing fuel. Please, as we need contrary opinions, but with respect.

Gosh Tiger, snap again on your views; I was up early too working rewriting a film with D Trump ....talking of "unpleasant self-publicist spivs who thrive in modern....". Crispin Odey was also saying that gold "trades both in line with the tech stocks and falling nominal yields. That makes it very good as an asset to hold this side of inflation and very dangerous into an inflationary cycle. It will probably trade in line with the momentum stocks as it did in the early part of the bear market of 73/74". However I still see gold as the one place that could attract money and there is certainly a lot of it around, and I feel even with deflation first they will then need to go to negative rates to keep real rates below zero, and as said with inflation stay negative in real terms till it really takes off. Which is to say I feel that we have a bit of time, and after this correction (I hope that is what it is) we will get another rise in gold and that will. be the time to step out. You may be wiser and less greedy to have done so now.

Where are you, or just up v early? Thanks for the literary allusion. However in his monthly news letter Crispin Odey, for I think the first time in years, suggested gold might no longer be a good haven as inflation will bring rising interest rates and falling bonds. However as I see it the big question is how far interest rate are raised if/when inflation takes off. As long as real interest rates remain at the current minus 1% or lower that seems good for gold to me. Ie it is not inflation that matters as much as real interest rates, as ever. I am appreciating pundits turning negative on gold, too many people have been in the trade and positive lately and I am always a contrarian.

Absolutely so, most miners like Cey are total plays on the gold price but Hoc, as well as being more geared because of its 40% silver exposure, also has a lower PE than other miners or than it should Imho, Tiger thinks a forward 7, so should rerate once mines have been in full production a while,

Noel, the best thing I do believe is to ignore anyone sniping and vice versa, both for yourself and others. it will eventually then go away. Tiger thanks for your figures, is capex included in aisc, or does it depends on what it is for? Anyway I have just sold a hunk of Cey to buy more Hoc as Hoc price is only 20% above and is historically 60% as we have discussed before. Politics, unrest and Covid are all worries in Peru (and Argentina) while Egypt unfortunately has a strong arm dictator which is good for Cey. However I feel that this is more than priced in. Of course the next quarter results will be bad as well with I reckon maybe 1/2 to 2/3rds production , but if things stay good and pm prices stay anywhere near her, the last quarter should be a whopper!

19 August 2020, 11:10Source - SMW
RBC Capital Markets today reaffirms its sector performer investment rating on Hochschild Mining PLC (LON:HOC) and cut its price target to 340p (from 360p).
STILL 340p!

Me too Tiger, are my numbers anywhere right?
Quite agree lack of communications, just as Cey used to be, tho I supposed South American Covid going forward is a bit unknown

Are my simple sums On back of a stamp flawed?
Next year say 14m Oz silver (16.8m 2019)at $16 profit per ounce $225k
Say 220k Oz gold (270k 2019) at $900 profit = $210k
Total before tax conservative $435k
Say after tax $300k
Which is sterling £230k profit. Value of company £1.3bn. So PE 5.5
Am I missing something here or is this a great buy now at half the PE of rivals? I presume I must be

Yes but output had fallen even before Covid, so not comparable. Also worth remembering Hoc is primarily a gold producer. But you are right that if they get back to full, lower production, don’t get hit further by Covid which is bad in Peru, difficult government and locals there, and the government in Argentina, and find some more bold and silver, then this company is undervalued,

As expected a tumble and great buying opp

Quite so including continued Covid uncertainty in Peru, but extra news that therefore still not able to make A forward forecast, and still no dividend. We need to look past this. Cash is still good.

I am expecting a neutral market today, with a small fall for weaker gold and silver, though may be completely wrong. After all the shares have recently come back 40p and been weak this week in expectation so I hope the bad news is accounted for and the good news firing on all cylinders from 10 days time. . But with so many shares tied up Hoc is very volatile as we know. I will continue to hold Far too many, have you bought back Tiger or waiting for cheaper today or in the future as you expect a big fall as markets collapseS,

Well these figures don’t say much and no surprises. Production halved in first half so should be down 25% on the year as I suggested last night. Aisc not up as I thought, but because extra costs counted as exceptional and not included. Inmaculada ramping back up. Looking forward still no prediction, just “we are therefore hopeful of delivering a strong rebound in profitability in the second half” which the company would have to, as lost us a cent or two each share in first half. I still think they are imdervalued if looking forward

The mines are indeed all going, but the question is how much, ie how quickly are they ramping back up? Hopefully we shall know in the morning, and with luck be told what the expected gold equivalent ounce production will be for this year, I expect maybe 25% down on the last prediction, and equally important how much aisc has risen with the close downs and lower production. However if we make 300k ounces and $1250 aisc this is still a highly profitable company at current metal prices, and will become more so as mining recovers AS LONG AS the exploration has restarted well and proves successful

My thoughts exactly

Results will be that bad or worse as haven’t been mining. However looking forward we hope should be churning it in

As you point out Hoc was hammered most in Q2, so tomorrow’s results should be dire. The big question is will we finally get new forward guidance and what will that be like, how much have the mines got going again, and can they now make up any of the losses, and what about exploration that was hit too? It is an important day tomorrow. I wonder if the current weakness (should be strongly up this am) is due to worry about tomorrow....

Thank you, in this week’s Forbes that Buffet bought something like $500m of Barrick; cheering when the gold bucking bronco is trying to throw one off again as scaring certainly me with the potential falling POG