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Razor sorry if you are taken aback by my scepticism and concern, however I am taken aback by the lack of clarity in the RNS. Profits could easily be halved this year as a result of this huge second half production cut (bigger than last profit warnings) but what about next year, why scare investors with no encouraging noises, but a replanning of mining, why not be clear that next year output is expected to be back. Without this knowledge a potential halving of this year’s profits easily justifies to me a reduction of half that (25%) in the share price, and obviously to others who are selling at this price. I most sincerely hope that I am utterly wrong and the share price rises back up and you are right. I would love to see your maths on how a 15% production cut and hefty cost per ounce increase only impacts profits by 15% and also your analysis of how you think the new mining plan will impact next year. I sadly just remember last time this happened, with similar lack of clarity, we went on getting bad news and the share price halved. Of course back then others on this board were equally taken back by my posts, which are not always gloomy and have been very bullish all this year till now. Incidentally I shall sit it out and haven’t sold any, buying more on further falls depending on news in later October results.

Razor, as I often post costs matter too. Everyone seems to concentrate on ounces mined, but profit is these ounces mined times the price of gold LESS the all important all in sustaining costs per ounce, that rise as ounces produced fall. Moreover the percentage move in costs, and the price of gold have at least twice the effect on profit as ounces mined. So a 15% cut in ounces leads as you say to 15% lost profit, but also to increased costs per ounce, assuming a similar 15% rise in costs (quite probably more) that means another 35% off profits so I expect profits to be at least halved from what they would have been, plus we mined most gold in the first half when the gold price was lower.

However for me the biggest question is not this year’s badly hit profit but next year? if we lost 70k ounces this year, but total lost ounces 90k, do we expect only 20k further lost ounces next year in which case our share price should recover, maybe to 180 at these gold prices, or will we be able to mine these then? So the worst for me is the lack of clear communication from Centamin yet again, despite the new management, and just the ominous talk of a new mining plan as a result of this. Therefore for me the share price fall so far is sadly entirely justified and was predicted as soon as I heard the news, will it now go lower till the next report in a couple of weeks, and what will that bring? Last time this happened I was quite insulted here as a prophet of doom, I was just being realistic when I suggested a fall to 80p then. This time I believe, for the reason I point out above, it is worse not better than it looks and the market is right, let’s just hope we are saved by gold soaring ($2400 should take our price back where it was) rather than gold falling further which will take our price down more. Sorry not to be cheerier but honestly I am appalled by the lack of clarity on what this might mean, to costs, next year etc etc

Soul sister, Centamin didn’t go down because the market had, but because of an unexpected mining event halving production short term, this quarter, the Fool is right that these sort of events happen from time to time with any miner; however the conclusion to invest in tech shares seems dangerous, rather it will be an opportunity to buy the temporarily fallen miner at a cheaper price. The only worry is if this will last longer, the RNS talking of an updated mine plan as a result, and of course the fickle price of gold that is in a dangerous place. The Fool is I think right about gold miners not being for widows and orphans, I don’t recommend them to inexperienced friends, though wild for us

Sadly almost certainly not, directors didn’t buy after last profits warnings and we have had quite a few that have all been sadly quite real

Tiger, Hoc too plummeted on temporary poor output (and so higher costs and crashed profits) immediately by 20% but now 1/3rd down. Through this fall I have been regularly selling Cey to buy falling Hocschild as the gap between them has narrowed, first at 45p gap (down from £1, then at 30p difference, 20p and even 15p.st week), now the gap is back to 60p ( as said it was £1 in the summer) is it time to start moving back or wait for Cey to fall further?
I think the market worry on both is that now is the time to be making big profits on gold, when production is fully back price may be quite a bit lower

Prof, at first I couldn’t get a quote this morning, then got 186 but only on a small amount and didn’t sell any sadly/stupidly.
On the Aisc, when Hoc reduced output by a similar amount earlier this year their aisc rose nearly 20% as costs spread across fewer ounces. On another one I held 1% of tiny OMI since it was Uruguay minerals, which was incredibly geared to POG, but that again was hit by costs rising, to around $1320 when gold was below that so their only mine was closed down; luckily Newmont came in to fund some exploration they had in Columbia so price got back to losing only half and I sold 60%, it fell down again and I wrote it off, but it has risen 3 fold since the day before yesterday and 10 fold in a month so back to break even and makes up for a third of my Cey fall. It is why I think each leg of the stool is important, ounces mined, price of gold and cost per ounce, people often ignore the last which is perhaps the most important imho, and is very affected by ounces mined

you are missing that overall costs rise as divided bay fewer ounces so loss is bigger, if it is a one off not a big problem, and current drop takes account, if leads to more lost ounces... imho

Prof I usually always agree with you but not that the 20% fall is overdone, seems about right or very kind to me; you cannot assume costs will remain constant, they are per ounce so fewer ounces means higher costs. 50% lost production this quarter will mean v low profit for it if any, and over the year 15% lost production plus say 10% rise in costs would mean instead or 515000 x $1000 at todays price less 52.5% , £190,000 , we would have 440k at $700 less 52.5%, £110,000, which is a reduction of 40% on this year's profit. Even with the fallen share price PE is up from 13 to 18 today. And this year we only have the problem only for the second half and presumably only the latter end of this quarter. If it were to continue all next year we could be looking at £1 at current gold prices. Hopefully however the market will look forward to a speedy recovery so it should only fall 10 or 20p from here or if we are lucky even less, but oversold....?

Don’t expect it to hold

Fair price, 20% fall as expected, just surprised opened so high, presumably it will overshoot but hopefully settle back in a few days around this price, as said this years profit and next divi dramatically down but shouldn’t impact long term tho does make one question management as usual even if mining is fickle

If all we get is a 10% hit we will be very fortunate tho hopefully hits just this year very hard, at least won’t have a problem with the dividend tax as di I will be much lower

Gosh just got price 186, amazed not worse

Any guesses why they will open at when they do. Ah 182 but should fall further

Can’t sell at all, started at 40000 but can’t even sell 100

Q3 production to sept 30th also given 120k,which wouldn’t have been enough to make predicted 510-520k ounces and below quarter 1 and 2. I make it annual production now around 440k rather than 515k. Let’s hope the problem is quickly resolved. On re reading doesn’t look problematic longer term, but yet again the company.....tho that is mining. Will it open 20p down or more? I hope I am too gloomy but this is pretty very bad.
On another note interesting to see Trump diagnosed on same page as research shows he has been the leading source of false news about Covid. Sadly his success has been making people question not his and his acolytes pushing of false news, but the established news outlets with proper journalistic standards, serious newspaper and broadcasters even here, which makes it harder to price gold imho.

Sadly they certainly should, the shares will take a big hit if quarter 4 production halved!! This should more than halve quarter 4 profits as costs will rise spread around so many fewer ounces And looks to have ongoing impact. Oh dear me.now if gold would rise $500 there would be no impact...

In pounds gold same price as day before yesterday

Well with the tumble in the dollar gold is back up through 1900, I have to say Centamin has held up very well in this gold correction (down £100) which presages well if (or when) it is over.

Bhargav. How many do you have? I have held since it was Uruguay minerals, topping up as it fell till I had 1.1m. I used the jump on the Newmont news a while back to sell a bit more than half but it is nice to see my remaining nearly half million that I had pretty much written off get back to break even. What next...

Derby doesn’t matter what price you got in. If you think a good buy now then hold on, if you think you wouldn’t buy at this price sell. There are many things suggesting selling - production fall pre Covid, gold running out, political instability in Peru and Argentina, angry locals and higher taxes/exchange controls. However I am holding as if production recover AND they find more gold/silver AND PM prices stay up this should soar plus The MD in his latest presentation says very undervalued. Most of all there is very little now on this board, the shares are unloved, I like unloved shares