Member Info for Sotolo

sorry sold in 5 lots starting in 140's ending near 130, typo. so sold about 15% of my cey will hold the rest

It is next year that is the problem, that we didn't know the extent of, now we do and it is 25% down on what was expected pre wall, and worse aisc up 25%. I managed to sell about £130k but in 5 lots and stating in 140's ending near 120. I am afraid I think the share deserves this fall and please go in and start buying if you think it will return to 140's today and help it. I do hope you are right And Mr Bond all I posted yesterday was that figures for this year would be bad, but I hoped for guidance that next year would be good and a very informative statement about it from our new CEO, unlike Party, as on past Centamin profit warnings we might expect the worst. Sadly I didn't sell and it is worse that I expected so please in future do not try to put people off trying to point out how the shares might fall, if more had done so I might have even sold sooner.

152 to buy

I would agree except that is assuming gold price stays where it is, a $400 rise and we should stay level, plus if the market looks forward to 2022 the fall may be less

Gosh I hope you are right but I don’t think so as we didn’t expect such a terrible 2021, but let’s see what investors think in the market this morning

You mean post wall problem Prof, well I was certainly expecting a recovery next year, not that it would affect us this year next year and maybe for years, where do you see the shares, 130 or worse?

If you cal halved production and higher costs great news, it is broadly as expected so the market should be relieved I hope and 2021 looks better, let’s see how the market reacts

Well hugely sadly these appear dire, a repeat of 2018 of worse and worse news. . Not so much this quarter but what we wanted was a 2021 recovery. Instead we have 400000-430000. And 1200-1275 aisc. That means on a fag packet under £100k profit, down from expected this year over £200k so halved so I expect a big tumble. Oh dear. If gold rises above $2300 then our share price should hold. Does it look as bad to others?

Tiger hope you’re right, I just remember a history of Cey falling further at the poor results following previous profit warnings , maybe new management will manage news better. On work, I was lucky and also composed of a different lot of molecules to now, which currently seek mushrooms in the forest rather than stories, often even harder, and good shares, ditto. But with shares just like films trying to look forward, to mitigate the downside seems to me a key, so any help from the knowledgeable like Cowichan Dansul Siko etc v welcome, and let the upside take care of itself.

It was well over 300p when each time I bought in 2005, but then it’s Uruguay mine had a lot of potential back then giving a valuation of over £300m. If costs hadn’t soared it could have made a lot. The quantity of shares is ultimately immaterial, there are only 600,000 Berkshire Hathaway for instance,, only how much profit the company might make discounted back. I feel sanguine at having averaged down and made it out of over half at an average 36p. Hope for this to settle in 20’s and maybe buy some back, tho will try to resist having bought over 20 times over the years.

Thanks Miz, not bothered, only repeating what our management said for those who didn’t hear and expect a bumper quarter, hope not too many who then sell tomorrow. I am looking forward to results with fingers crossed that the management don’t repeat mistakes of 2018, but of course a reason why many of us love miners is that they are such an exciting rollercoaster and the whooshes down proceed the climbs back up and higher. I find those who try to predict both down and up helpful. All best as ever

On the gold price, Crispin Odey has been keen on gold for years, I always look forward to his outspoken monthly report, as though I may disagree he is certainly provocative. This time, if I read him right, he compares our situation to Germany a century ago, and how long it took for money to go out of control - a little over a year and three quarters. He continues that gives the UK till mid- 2021. However the interesting thing is his Opus fund which has held gold for ages, over 6% in Barrick recently, reports no large gold holdings at all this month, the first time for as long as I remember. I wonder why he sees inflation yet sells gold?

Quite agree, I am staying in too and moreover have even increased by £150k a month or two ago, switching as said from Cey - the gap since widened from 15 to 90. . The Hoc mine shut downs were temporary and analysts now seem to realise. Just depends whether market looks forward tomorrow, to big profits on full production, and hopefully some exploration news, or back at the lousy and expected figures we will get, see San Jose already. The share price seems itchy today, but Hoc is such a volatile share, with a smaller free float, which keeps it exciting. Fingers and toes crossed, and with Cey also unusually tomorrow. Lovely to hear from you S

Mr B. I was only replying to your helpful Kitco article saying profits of miners would be much higher in the third quarter pointing out that the managements of both Cey and Hoc have said this will sadly not be the case for either company, due to tumbled production and tiger costs, are you accusing them of deramping too? I was also prompted by Rebess wondering if there may be another goo hiding in store for us tomorrow. Please all do continue to post your honest views as I find them so valuable, and like Tibbs who was driven off for a while, ignore the schoolyard insults. None of us could move a share as large as Centamin posting here. I like all of us here sincerely hope both the managements have overplayed the downside so tomorrow will look good for all, fingers crossed and toes but worrying....

Dear Mr Bond
I very sadly own and have owned 80% of my portfolio in Hoc and Cey. For some reason whenever I worry that bad production figures coming up in the quarterly reports may hit the share price again, even though known and heralded, as they have before, unless the companies explain more strongly that they are temporary, I am accused of deramping. Why do some on this board not appreciate honest opinion about where the price may go, we need both bulls and bears explaining their case, right or wrong? I remain a long term bull, and proselytiser for this share - I even got my accountant to buy some last month - but I also sensibly worry about the direction of the gold price, production fall for how long (if just temporary the price drop is unfair), and cost rises how big, (same) and enjoy. discussing these valid worries and others views on this board. Some like Tiger were so worried in Aug they sold out, I stayed fully holding as said then, apart form a 10% switch from Cey toHoc as the price gap narrowed. Very sadly for me both Cey and Hoc have lost about 25% since aug when it was so good I got builders to start costing my house, they are frighteningly coming on Thursday to discuss it, so I am desperate for a higher price, hence my worry about tomorrow morning. Will the market react to terrible figures (unlike other miners who haven't lost production) or will we get some good news about the future that saves or improves the price?
Razor thanks but I made films by working through all the downsides, and doing so got me, luckily, 4 Bafta, it is just my way; what I love about these boards is it takes all sorts, Razor you cheered me!

Thanks, well I assume profits will be down not up, with such a cut in production and increase in costs. The million dollar question for us is will the production and costs quickly return to normal or will we get a double and treble whammy, as before,and that really depends on how our new CEO tells the story. There was no need for Pardy’s crash and recovery if he had been open and honest with us imho. It should hopefully be sold as in the normal course of mining, and back to normal with some good explanation

Yes, just not Centamin as lost so much production.

I have found OMI much more liquid lately, been able to deal over 100,00 with an instant quote

Yes the directors were wise to buy so cheaply, tho not that much, and the previous news should be accounted for in the price, however when the market sees it in black and white on weds there may be a knee jerk down, but hopefully there will be some forward news to obviate that. Hoc was smashed by poor production results last quarter despite they were no different to expected. The management need to get hold of the narrative, even more so when inevitable black swans happen, which is one thing that Cey and Hoc have failed to do over past few years, a bit like Boris and Covid . Hopefully will be better with new management, but not looking that great on fully informing us with a convincing story and how they are thinking so far;

Sorry that last post was meant for the Cey board, though as applicable here